Robertob's jump racing thread

[robertob]

As I always want to take on challenges, learn and improve my skills I started to get my nose a bit deeper into jump racing this season. It didn't fare to badly so far but obviously I have still plenty to learn about the jumping game as I'm actually very much a man for the flat. But I really enjoyed my visits to NH meetings here in Ireland over this winter and therefore I'd like to document my progress in an own thread as it always helps me to stay much more disciplined and to see how well I do and if I reall have valid arguments to make for a horse's chance anyway. I don't expect this to be a overly profitable thread but if I break even it'd be a success for me. After all it's also a bit of fun for me on days where I have absolutely nothing to do and don't fancy anything on the flat. 13.20 Punchestown: Don Cossack @ 6/5 Betfred - 6pts win Hard to see him getting beaten here today. He was regarded as a very special horse before his last race, here at Punchestown when he wasn't up to the pace of Pont Alexandre and fell at the last. He's much better than that though, and his trainer keeps faith in him, saying Don Cossack is still an exciting prospect who would have gone much closer to PA normally, but just wasn't 100% that day probably. This here today is easier anyway and Don Cossack should prove a too hard nut to crack for the rest in this field. 13.30 Musselburgh: According To Trev @ 17/2 VC - 2pt win I feel this should be a thing between Aerial and According To Trev and while the first name one is a clear favourite and has a big chance on the weights I think According To Trev's chance is underestimated here. He faded badly in gruelling ground conditions at Cheltenham lto getting a long way beaten in the end, but the better ground today at Musselburgh should really help to see him finishing his race in much better style. He won at Cheltenham in October a competitive Novice hurdle over 26f on good to soft ground, so he clearly stays the trip, but good ground looks crucial to him. This form worked out very well with Our Vinnie the runner-up winning two Grade 3's subsequently over in Ireland and finishing a decent 3rd to the exciting Pont Alexandre at Leopardstown last week. According To Trev is still generally lightly raced and has a better chance than the price suggest in my mind here today anyway with ground conditions in his favour over this sort of trip. 15.00 Musselburgh: Quito Du Tresor @ 10/1 VC - 1pt win Wide open race I feel but Quito Du Tresor has some credentials to see him go well here for a big price. His recent outings aren't too encouraging but after another small break he might take advantage of a slipping mark today as he's 3lb below his last winning mark now. The trip might be slightly too short but he goes very well on good ground and he has still some decent form to offer over 2m anyway. With a decent apprentice on board who takes 7lb off the weight Quito Du Tresor looks very well weighted and should have something to say about the outcome of the race I feel. 15.20 Punchestown: Alderwood - 4/1 Bet365 - 2pts win Looks a tricky contest but Alderwood could be potentially well handicapped on his Handicap debut after winning his first chase in good style at Navan a fortnight ago. He probably needed his two outings before that after a break of more than half a year. He was a Grade 1 winner over hurdles, goes well on heavy ground and should have more to offer now with the good experience he made recently over the big fences. He jumps well too and distance is no problem in contrast to some others here who should find 2m on the sharp side. 15.30 Musselburgh: Brick Red @ 5/2 Bet365 - 4pts win Hard to see Brick Red getting beaten in this field today. He's on a hat-trick and won his most recent start at Ludlow in breathtaking fashion, never getting off the bridle there, jumping well and cruising to an easy win by around six lengths. He gets further up in the mark for this obviously, but this probably won't stop him as he looks sure to improve again. Better ground probably will help to bring out more I think and 5/2 looks a big price in my mind.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread Fairly disappointing overall, just one winner, Brick Red done it nicely, Alderwood and Don Cossack finishing 2nd, the other two had now chance whatsoever. Overall Stats: Staked: 15pts Returned: 14pts Profit/Loss: -1.00pt ROI: -6.67% Bets: 5 Wins: 1 S/R: 20.00%

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread 16.20 Punchestown: The Ramblin Kid @ 11/2 VC - 2pts win A couple of interesting runners here but it could be well worth to stick with the Charlie Swan runner who has the benefit of the experience of a good run in late December at Limerick when finishing a decent 3rd. The drop in trip should suit today as he was travelling well till 2f out that day but fading badly then. He should have learned plenty from that experience and as he's the half-brother of Riverside Theatre he could develop into a smart sort. It's Swarn's only runner at Punchestown today and they are surly not coming just for a nice day out as Nina Carberry is booked for the ride. She's doing excellent in these type of races usually but is still searching for her first winner in 2013 in a NHF, so she's poised to win sooner rather than later I feel. Swan books her usually for good rides so I think this horse could be overpriced and outran his price.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread 14.15 Leopardstown: Champagne Fever @ 5/2 Coral - 4pts win Big price for a top class horse I feel. He was disappointing in the last but that was a performance too bad to be true, something was wrong that day. Willie Mullins said he's quite happy with Champagne Fever at the moment again, and if you ignore the most recent performance you see a horse with excellent form in the book. His performance against Jezki when he's been beaten just 1½ lengths is the best on offer in this race and the drop in trip to 2m 2f is probably in his favour today. I've huge belief in this horse and think he's a potential Grade 1 winner and hopefully he will confirm this today. 14.45 Leopardstown: Boston Bob @ 6/4 Coral - 7pts win Can't see him getting beaten in this field. He is a huge prospect for the chasing division and while he had to work a bit harder to win his first start over the big fences than it was supposed to be, it has to be said that he's open to loads of improvement for his second only start over fences. He's lightly raced anyway and was already a top class hurdler. That day at Navan when he beat You Must Know Me by half a lengths he was back after his seasonal break and he should be much fitter today I suppose. 15.25 Leopardstown: Sir Des Champs @ 13/8 William Hill - 4pts win This looks a two-horse-race and it's very much a question of belief: SDC or Flemenstar? I'm a huge fan of the latter one but he's simply not a stayer in my mind, even though there is a possibility that he gets away over 3m at a track like Leopardstown if things fall right. But we seen in the Lexus Chase that he's not getting this trip too well when he was cruising like the winner approaching the last fence but faded very badly in the end. Sir Des Champs in contrast stayed on very well in that race, his jumping wasn't the best that day though which made life difficult. I think he's a Gold Cup winner in the making though, said this already one year ago. He's a multiple Cheltenham winner, he's staying the trip and he should be fit and well now with two starts under his belt and I think today is the day to beat Flemenstar the first time for him.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread Wohooo what a day - 3 from 3 today! And still very much in for a very decent payout in a Heinz bet for the day... Sir Des Champs for me the most impressive winner today. Will relish the further 2f and the Cheltenham hill in the Gold Cup, no doubt. 5/1 looks big for the Gold Cup in my mind. Champagne Fever done the job nicely as well, so did Boston Bob who won it in a photo after being outpaced turning for home and then staying on super well. Step up to 3m would really be beneficial for him. So nice to see the thread in profit now. Overall Stats: Staked: 32pts Returned: 56.02pts Profit/Loss: +24.02pts ROI: +75.10% Bets: 9 Wins: 4 S/R: 44.44%

[bowles10]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread :clap well done Robert Glad someone found those 3

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread Thanks Bowles. :) Lovely day today, things got even better as Unioniste made if 5 from 6 in my Heinz bet. Just a pity that Fargo was a faller, but still a decent pay-out. Some nice reward after a brutal week at work!

[Aidymac]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread

Thanks Bowles. :) Lovely day today, things got even better as Unioniste made if 5 from 6 in my Heinz bet. Just a pity that Fargo was a faller, but still a decent pay-out. Some nice reward after a brutal week at work!

Aha! Lovely bet there Roberto! €420 returned roughly, cracker. Great calls on all 3 winners aswell

[cpo]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread Well done yesterday mate. It was one of them days where it looks so obvious now! All the big guns winning... :clap

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread Thanks guys! Yes was almost perfect and it was one of these days indeed... most satisfied about Sir Des Champs though. I was pretty surprised when I heard the guys on the CH4 Morning Line saying he won't have a chance against Flemenstar in the Hennessy. Thought they're absolute underestimating his talent. I have had always a huge believe in this horse so it's great to see him confirming all the promise with a great performance yesterday. 15.30 Exeter: Frontier Spirit @20/1 - e/w 0.5pts Tough assignment as the top weight and this looks competitive but also wide open and I think Frontier Spirit could be overpriced here. I'm happily ignore his most recent performance at Cheltenham, that wasn't his day and he had to contest against much stronger opposition, plain and simple. But he was hugely impressive at Ffos Las when he won a class 3 Handicap chase in gruelling conditions over the same distance as they're running today. He went up 7lb for this 18 lengths success and it loks a stiff test of this mark today but he clearly goes well in the mud and stays very well indeed, which could be important in very heavy condition at Exeter today. Therefore I think he should be at least in the shake-up and is not out of a chance to win this. 16.00 Exeter: Colour Squadron @ 5/4 Coral - 5pts win Tricky sort who has loads of potential though if he finally can get his jumping right. He was a very good novice hurdler but was a bit disappointing in two starts over the big fences in recent weeks. He found here an excellent opportunity to score, though. It's a really poor race with not many horses that make any appeal whatsoever in my mind and if his jumping doesn't let him down then he'll be very hard to beat today in this race.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread 15.50 Ascot: Captain Chris @ 11/4 Bet365 - 3pts win I think this race is made for Captain Chris. I'm not convinced by all the other rivals in the field and think he has the right form in the book, as he has the conditions in his favour and he surly stays the trip, what is a worry about some of the opposition. His 2nd place to Long Run in the King George is by far the strongest piece of form of anyone on offer here, and he won a Grade 2 over shorter here at Ascot in good style in November as well, so he clearly showed the ability to go well- and to be very competitive against the best over different sort of trips.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread 14.50 Ffos Las: Orange Nassau @ 2/1 StanJames - 4pts win Did fairly well in France and has some decent form over long distances there. His UK debut was promising one month ago at Lingfield. He had no chance with the winner but came a long way clear of the 3rd. His jumping was good that day and he didn't get a hard ride in the closing stages. His opening mark of 110 looks fair enough and one from where he can go on to improve and while this looks a pretty poor race overall he should take all the beating. 15.00 Market Rasen: Groomed @ 8/1 Skybet - 1.5pts win Going well for the new yard so far and did particularly well when winning a maiden chase at Fakenham on New Years day on his first ever start over the big obstacles. He made some jumping errors during the race but got it sorted in the last third of the race, drawing clear in the closing stages to win it in good style. He should have learned plenty from that experience and as he backed up this success with another decent performance in a jumpers bumper at Wolverhampton it looks fair to assume he's in good shape and could improve further. His handicap mark is fair enough and the race is a pretty open contest, so he's a chance here and might be a shade overpriced I feel. 15.20 Ffos Las: Buffalo Bob @ 4/1 Bet365 - 2pts win Disappointing in his last two starts but drops in grade now and has a big chance on past form as he's now 2lb below his last winning mark. He won in early 2012 in better races over a bit shorter in good style but couldn't confirm this form over the rest of the year. He's got a small break now and should go well fresh here today as long as he finds a bit of his old form. It looks a tricky contest with some interesting rivals but I'm fairly confident that with a good round of jumping he could be hard to peg back if they allow him an easy lead as he won't stop having some good form over further distances as well. 15.30 Market Rasen: Harry Hunt @ 9/1 VC - 1.5pts win Thunderstorm is the horse to beat and might be still ahead of the handicapper but the form of his wins is not the strongest and I think this is not an easy race. Harry Hunt looks the value here in my mind as he has winning form over this distance in this grade and is a fairly decent hurdler overall. The form of his win at Stratford in October works out okay and he did the job in good style that day. He finished a fine 2nd in a Handicap Chase after that, got then a little break and returned with a decent performance in a class 4 handicap on the flat at Wolverhampton. He should be in good shape today and might have a bit more to offer from his new mark which is 6lb above the last winning mark, but he has a useful 7lb claimer on board and as ground and trip are fine I assume him to be definitely in the mix here today.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread 15.50 Ffos Las: Wilde Ruby @ 5/1 StanJames - 2pts win Rapidly improved mare through 2012 over hurdles, having won twice in June last year and almost even three times as she was desperately unlucky at Fontwell when having been clear but unseating the rider half a a furlong out due to a slipping saddle. She's just 2lb above the last winning mark now and there might be still more to come. Drop in trip shouldn't be a problem as the ground should ensure a race with the emphasis on stamina which probably suits her. 5/1 looks a big price in my mind.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread 13.30 Cheltenham: Jezki @ 5/1 Boylesports - 2pts win Jezki is way better than what his price suggests I think. This horse is grade 1 proven class, won in impressive fashion more often than not this year and is improving all the time. The favourite here is exciting no doubt, but there is also loads of hype behind it and I suppose if Jezki would be a UK trained horse he would be the horse surrounding all the hype. He's surly the value, will be definitely very much in the mix, he's proven on the ground and think you can ignore his only run at Cheltenham from last year. He'll go very close tomorrow and is the horse to beat in my mind. 15.20 Cheltenham: Hurricane Fly @ 9/4 Bet365 - 7pts win My favourite National Hunt horse, a superstar and simply the best over 2m over hurdles. He looks back to his best this season, won well enough all his three starts this year and Willie Mullins is much happier than he used to be last season. Ruby was really bullish about the Fly's chance and that really gives me the confidence to believe that he's in fantastic shape. It's a competitive field this year, no doubt, but a Hurricane at his best is unbeatable. 16.00 Cheltenham: A New Story @ 20/1 VC - 1pt e/w A huge price for proven class in this race. He's not getting any younger but his record speaks for itself. He's won it in 2010 and has been placed on many, many occasions in this cross-country chase. He was only beaten by a very narrow margin last year either and is better handicapped this time around. He didn't show much this season so far bit there is no doubt that he'll be primed for this race. He had a spin over way too short 2m at Clonmel in February, a decent enough performance there considering the circumstances and it's to expect that he goes well once again this year here at Cheltenham. Big price, and big value in my mind. 17.15 Cheltenham: Carlito Brigante @ 8/1 Paddy Power - 2pts win Carlito Brigante could be very well handicapped of a mark of 137 in this race. He's ran some decent races this year and should be fit and primed after a spin on Dundalk's All-Weather track recently. Hie trainer was happy and confident about Carlito Brigante' chance, even though ground could be key to him. It's soft, and that might be too slow but I take the gamble here, thinking he's too well in the weights and has talent enough to come through this on top.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread Proved to be a so-so day with the Hurrciane winning it in great fashion, while Jezki finished a decent enough third and Carlito Brigante was very unlucky bumping into a faller and losing his rhythm as a result. He had to be pulled up eventually. The cross-county chase will take place on Thursday now. 14.05 Cheltenham: Pont Alexandre @ 6/4 Bet365 - 6pts win Have a big Ante-Post bet on him, so surly he's my best bet of the day. He's such an exciting prospect since moving to Willie Mullins yard and all the hype surrounding this horse isn't there for nothing. He won his both starts in super impressive fashion and there is much more to come from him, no doubt. He probably didn't beat top class opposition on both occasions over in Ireland but he can only beat what he's racing against and he couldn't have done it more impressively. 14.40 Cheltenham: Boston Bob @ 7/2 Paddy Power 2pts win + Goulanes @ 7/1 Bet365 2pts win Fancy two horses in this race. Bosten Bob was very impressive when he finishing like a train at Leopardstown in the Dr. P.J. Moriarty Novice Chase confirming that he can be a top class chaser after he wasn't that impressive on his chasing debut. He will improve for these experiences as this will be only his third start over the big fences tomorrow as well as for the step up in trip. He always looked like a horse that would be much better over further than what he raced over his whole career so far and 3m should be the perfect trip. Goulanes is lightly raced under rules and had only one start over the big fences yet. This was a successful one when the won the Grade 2 Towton Novices' Chase in a dramatic finish. He should have learned plenty from this experience and it looks helpful that he gets the ground as well as the trip - and even further probably - and that he has won at Cheltenham already. So I expect him to be right in the mix with a chance to win it. 16.00 Cheltenham: Pendra @ 8/1 VC - 2pts win Pendra lacks experience but looks a very exciting prospect. He won his first three starts in fantastic fashion, finished a strong 2nd in a Grade 1 after that, and was then bought by JP McMannus. His mark looks more than fair here and might be even lenient, and even though he faces some tough opposition in this big handicapped it looks as if he's the likeliest winner. He steps up in trip, which probably suits and should bring out further improvement and if so, he'll be hard to beat. 16.40 Cheltenham: Saphir Du Rheu @7/1 Bet365 - 2pts win He has some good form to offer from his time in France finishing 3rd in a listed hurdle race there. His first start in the UK was then decent enough even though he finished a turned over odds-on favourite in third. But his second start was then very impressive winning by a wide margin. This form doesn't look to strong but the way he drew clear in the closing stages really gave the impression that he could be a very, very good horse. 17.15 Cheltenham: Golantilla @ 9/1 Paddy Power - 3pts win It's a big field, it's surly a competitive field, and you don't really know what to expect from a lot of horses here but Golantilla looks the real deal to me. One could be only impressed with his performance in Cork bumper in January. He travelled like a dream and when his jockey finally said go the horse responded impressively, showing he really has got some gears and drew easily clear of the rest of the field making them look pedestrian.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread Wow that was disastrous today. Particularly disappointed with Pont Alexandre obviously. Anyway, tomorrow it'll be better I hope, so here some selections for Cheltenham to cheer on at work tomorrow... 13.20 Dynaste @ 13/8 Bet365 - 6pts win Unbeaten in three starts this season, always been super impressive, trip won't be a problem, he has enough pace for it. He jumps well, he goes well at Cheltenham and he takes on some opposition he should be easily capable of beating. It looks very hard to argue against the fact that he really is entitled to win this race in a very impressive fashion. 14.40 Cue Card @ 7/2 Bet365 - 3pts win I would have expected Cue Card to be the favourite in this race. Don't really like First Lieutenant and think he's too short. Cue Card did well for the step up in trip at Ascot last time out, winning well, even though he was favoured by a jumping error of Captain Chris. Yet it was a fine performance, and even though the Cheltenham hill is a different proposition in terms of the required staying ability I think he'll be fine over the trip. He ran well here at Cheltenham in the past as well and a huge performance is expected yet again. 15.20 Bog Warrior @ 9/1 Bet365 - 2pts win The World Hurdle looks an open race and as I don't fancy Oscar Whiskey over this trip I think this race is pretty open. Most appeal at the current price makes Bog Warrior in my mind. He should be definitely fine on the ground, even though he probably would have been even happier if it wouldn't have dried out as much as it does at the moment. But he won his last three starts over in Ireland in good style, beating fine opposition and he definitely will stay the trip, no doubt. 16.00 Poquelin @ 25/1 Bet365 - 0.5pt e/w Poquelin loves it here around at Cheltenham. He didn't run too well in his last two races but the ground was too soft for him, so he'll be happy to see the ground is a bit drying out at the moment which boosts his chances I feel. He's well handicapped on old form as well and showed at Ascot in November that the sparkle is still there. I have no doubts that he'll be primed by Nicholls for this race and I expect him to outran his price. 16.40 Romanesco @ 10/1 Ladbrokes - 1pt win I think you can ignore his latest run, back over hurdles when something wasn't right that day. But he ran a cracker before that at the Christmas Festival at Leopardstown finishing 2nd in the Paddy Power Chase. I suppose he'll be happy with the ground tomorrow and could be a huge runner over this distance at this track. He ran once at Cheltenham, last October, when he was approaching the last fence on the bridle, actually winning the race, until he fell at this certain fence. He won after that a chase at Fakenham easily, was then a long way beaten at Navan in a very competitive race in gruelling conditions, then came the strong performance at Leopardstown, and then the last race, a form I do ignore. So overall he could be still well handicapped and might have more to offer. From Tuesday there is still this race open: 16.00 Cheltenham: A New Story @ 20/1 VC - 1pt e/w A huge price for proven class in this race. He's not getting any younger but his record speaks for itself. He's won it in 2010 and has been placed on many, many occasions in this cross-country chase. He was only beaten by a very narrow margin last year either and is better handicapped this time around. He didn't show much this season so far bit there is no doubt that he'll be primed for this race. He had a spin over way too short 2m at Clonmel in February, a decent enough performance there considering the circumstances and it's to expect that he goes well once again this year here at Cheltenham. Big price, and big value in my mind.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread At least a winner today! Cue Card done the job nicely, also thought Bog Warrior ran well, and Nina gave Romanesco a peach of a ride, even if it resulted only in a 3rd place. Dynaste was obviously a huge disappointment. Cheltenham selections for tomorrow: 1.30 Our Conor @ 10/3 VC - 4pts win Lightly raced, winning three on the bounce this season, mightily impressive in his most recent start at Leopardstown when winning the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle. Saw him in flesh at Navan in November and he looked a really classy sort, really the one to beat here tomorrow and could prove too good here. 2.05 Shadow Catcher 25/1 Bet365 + Brampour @ 50/1 Bet365 - 05pts win each Shadow Catcher had a light campaign this season so far with only two starts. He should be primed after a spin at Dundalk's All-Weather track and could we easily well handicapped. He finished a strong second to Hissabat last February, who finished later second in the Triumph hurdle. Shadow Catcher is fitted with cheek-pieces for the first time today which could bring out further improvement and if so he'll be right in the mix. Brampour could be interesting for a very big price with first time blinkers fitted from a slipping mark. He's surly a better horse than what he showed this season yet and I hope he can find back to his best with the new headgear on. 2.40 Our Vinnie @ 11/1 Betfred - 1pt win He looks a bit the forgotten horse to me. Our Vinnie has absolute top class form to offer over this trip, winning two from two, and particularly the form of the Grade 3 at Cork which he took is very strong. He was not disgraced back over shorter at Leopardstown in January, when beaten in 3rd by Pont Alexandre. Think he'll be a big runner tomorrow with the ground and trip definitely to suit as well as that he ran a strong race on his only start at Cheltenham. 3.20 Sir Des Champs @ 4/1 Bet365 - 3pts win Said one year ago after his win in the Jewson Novices' Chase that he'll win the Gold Cup next year and I still feel confident in his chance in this race. He's done not much wrong this year, improving gradually and I thought he was very impressive when beating Flemenstar at Leopardstown lto. He will love the additional two furlongs in the Gold Cup and he definitely loves it around Cheltenham. he's a burden of potential and all will come together in the Gold Cup tomorrow I hope. 4.00 Tricky Trickster @ 12/1 Bet365 - 1pt win a former Cheltenham festival winner, won much stronger races in the past and looked to regain something of his old form when he appeared back at the racetrack after a long lay-off. He was beaten in his second start this season as an odds-on shot though, which was disappointing, but I'm sure he'll improve for these races and will be fit for tomorrow. He has no problems with the trip and should run a big race tomorrow here. 4.40 Toner D'Oudairies @ 12/1 Paddy Power - 1pt win Finished 2nd in this race last year, while travelling super well for a long time but just jumped a bit to the right on the last and lost it in the final 100y or so. He didn't run over hurdles since then, his trainer probably wanted to protect his mark, which is only 2lb higher than last year. Cheek-pieces are fitted for the first time, which chould lead to further improvement and then he'll have a real go in this race.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread At least a winner today! Cue Card done the job nicely, also thought Bog Warrior ran well, and Nina gave Romanesco a peach of a ride, even if it resulted only in a 3rd place. Dynaste was obviously a huge disappointment. Cheltenham selections for tomorrow: 1.30 Our Conor @ 10/3 VC - 4pts win Lightly raced, winning three on the bounce this season, mightily impressive in his most recent start at Leopardstown when winning the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle. Saw him in flesh at Navan in November and he looked a really classy sort, really the one to beat here tomorrow and could prove too good here. 2.05 Shadow Catcher 25/1 Bet365 + Brampour @ 50/1 Bet365 - 0.5pts win each Shadow Catcher had a light campaign this season so far with only two starts. He should be primed after a spin at Dundalk's All-Weather track and could we easily well handicapped. He finished a strong second to Hissabat last February, who finished later second in the Triumph hurdle. Shadow Catcher is fitted with cheek-pieces for the first time today which could bring out further improvement and if so he'll be right in the mix. Brampour could be interesting for a very big price with first time blinkers fitted from a slipping mark. He's surly a better horse than what he showed this season yet and I hope he can find back to his best with the new headgear on. 2.40 Our Vinnie @ 11/1 Betfred - 1pt win He looks a bit the forgotten horse to me. Our Vinnie has absolute top class form to offer over this trip, winning two from two, and particularly the form of the Grade 3 at Cork which he took is very strong. He was not disgraced back over shorter at Leopardstown in January, when beaten in 3rd by Pont Alexandre. Think he'll be a big runner tomorrow with the ground and trip definitely to suit as well as that he ran a strong race on his only start at Cheltenham. 3.20 Sir Des Champs @ 4/1 Bet365 - 3pts win Said one year ago after his win in the Jewson Novices' Chase that he'll win the Gold Cup next year and I still feel confident in his chance in this race. He's done not much wrong this year, improving gradually and I thought he was very impressive when beating Flemenstar at Leopardstown lto. He will love the additional two furlongs in the Gold Cup and he definitely loves it around Cheltenham. he's a burden of potential and all will come together in the Gold Cup tomorrow I hope. 4.00 Tricky Trickster @ 12/1 Bet365 - 1pt win a former Cheltenham festival winner, won much stronger races in the past and looked to regain something of his old form when he appeared back at the racetrack after a long lay-off. He was beaten in his second start this season as an odds-on shot though, which was disappointing, but I'm sure he'll improve for these races and will be fit for tomorrow. He has no problems with the trip and should run a big race tomorrow here. 4.40 Toner D'Oudairies @ 12/1 Paddy Power - 1pt win Finished 2nd in this race last year, while travelling super well for a long time but just jumped a bit to the right on the last and lost it in the final 100y or so. He didn't run over hurdles since then, his trainer probably wanted to protect his mark, which is only 2lb higher than last year. Cheek-pieces are fitted for the first time, which chould lead to further improvement and then he'll have a real go in this race.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread 16.15 Aintree: Grand National Chase There were many good things to hear out of the Twiston-Davies camp regarding Imperial Commander's chance and indeed he looks to have a big chance of his handicap mark despite heading the weight list. He missed Cheltenham due to injury but should be fit, well and fresh now for the National and his run in the Argento Chase after a long break suggested he might be as good as ever. Distance is an unkown obviously but I think he should stay it. His jumping is top class anyway and I hope he get a clear round as then he will be definitely in the shake-up. Ballabriggs should be primed for this race as always. He won it in 2011 of only a 2lb higher mark and ran a huge race finishing 6th last year of an eight pounds higher mark. He had a decent enough prep at Kelso finishing 3rd in a Listed chase and with the ground to suit today he won't be far away yet again. Harry The Viking looks a bit a risky proposition but it's interesting that Paul Nicholls said that this has been the target for him all season, so I wouldn't read too much into the three poor forms this season. His most recent start at Cheltenham coming of a break of more then hundred days should ensure he's spot-on today and his staying ability is well known anyway. he's also still pretty lightly raced so he looks a big price and could go well. Imperial Commander @ 18/1 William Hill - 1pt e/w Ballabriggs @ 20/1 Bet365 - 0.5pts e/w Harry The Viking @ 40/1 VC - 0.5pts e/w

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread 14.15 Aintree: Overturn @ 9/4 Bet365 - 4pts win I think you have to forgive Overturn his poor performance in the Arkle Chase last month. Ground was maybe a bit too soft or it simply wasn't his day. He's clearly a better horse than that progressing very well over fences and remains an exciting prospect. He clearly gets his ground here today at Aintree though and should produce his usual strong display from the front. He's very hard to beat in my mind. 15.25 Aintree: Planet of Sound @ 12/1 Bet365 - 1pt win Planet of Sound wasn't at his best this season so far but steps down in grade now and also slips down to a very handy mark. He didn't win since his his strong victory in the Punchestown Gold Cup two years ago but he remains a very capable horse on his day. Good ground is key to him I think and he gets this at Aintree today. He should strip fitter today with the recent Cheltenham run under his belt and I think he's overpriced in a race like this.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread 13.45 Aintree: Utopie Des Bordes 5/1 Bet365 - 2pts win This mare is a Grade 1 winner in France and done not much wrong since she was brought over to the UK. She won her first two races in good style and stepped up to 3m at the Cheltenham Festival then, which probably stretched her stamina on soft ground a bit too much. She still ran a decent race in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle. Down to 2m 4f today again should suit as well as the fast ground as she showed on her UK debut that she can cope well enough with this sort of underfoot conditions. She has the best form to offer in this race I think and even though the favourite looks good he's way to short in my mind and Utopie Des Bordes must have a very decent chance to go close today, so 5/1 looks big in my mind.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread Kicking off the Jump season and hope to improve my knowledge and probability this season further... 14.15 Ffos Las: Tara Muck @ 15/2 VC - 2pts win Looks a wide open race and for me the favourite is one to take on. I really like the chance of lightly Tara Muck who won a bumper on debut in good style, travelling nicely until 3f out, overtaking the leader and when coming under severe pressure from a closer she simply pulled out more going away in the end to win by more than a lengths. There is more to come of course, good ground is fine and she is nicely bred. Think she is a shade too big in the market considering how open this race is and the fact that she is open to plenty of improvement. 14.45 Ffos Las: Sagredo @ 8/1 SJ - 2pts win Poor lto but that was in a better race, drops in class now and if back to form he should be in the shake up. He ran only twice over 21f and was placed on both occasions, while he ran quite well in his penultimate start at Sedgefield over 17f, when he jumped really well throughout the whole race but looked to lack the pace of the winner in the end, eased down inside the final furlong eventually but still finished 2nd. So the step up in trip might be exactly what he wants, and on good ground he should get the distance. Interesting that he has promising 10lb claimer J. Huxam who made a big impression in recent weeks and his claim could be worth allot today.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread 15.20 Ffos Las: Trumix @ 9/1 Ladbrokes - 2pts win Should do better going handicapping now for the first time. Opening mark looks stiff enough but not beyond him I suppose. Race looks definitely winnable even though the favourite could be have still a bit in hand. Interesting to see Maguire booked for the ride having an almost 18% strike rate with trainer KC Bailey while Bailey himself is in quite decent form lately. So all together I feel Trumix has a better chance than the price reflects.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread Clearly showed how much I know about the jumping game. First one finished at least, even though nowhere near to win, while the other two got pulled up. Great stuff.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread 15.50 Huntingdon: Loudmouth @ 2/1 Coral - 5pts win Lightly raced, former Irish point to point winner, won well on his second start under rules in March this year, when he held on gamely to win in gruelling conditions. Now for the first time over the big fences, also for the first time in handicap company after a season break for the in-form Longsdon looks to have found a good race to make a winning comeback. He looks to be perfectly suited by the big fences as he jumped pretty big in all his three raced before. Probably the drop in trip will suit as well as his stamina didn't look to last the last time. The race looks not too strong and I can't find many that make appeal. So suppose this could be a nice price for a horse that has a huge chance of winning.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread 14.20 Huntingdon: Daliance @ 4/1 VC - 3pts win Mrs. Wadham's only runner tomorrow. Daliance ran to a decent level on the flat, 83 rated at the highest but he showed promise of hurdles as well even though his is yet to win. But he has been placed in three from four starts and his most recent from coming in August in a pretty similar race was really good when he finished strongly. He's 4lb up for this but looks still well treated on ground probably too suit. There is surely more to come from him and the pretty good young 5lb claimer Matt Crawley gets the leg up again. 14.50 Huntingdon: Allerton @ 9/4 bet365 - 5pts win Allerton looks the class act in this field - if he is fit after a long absence. But jockey booking suggests he is not in the race of a jogg around the course. He improved nicely for the switch to the big fences last year, winning on debut and finishing a strong runners-up in a strong race which form works out well, when he jumped really well and kept on in good fashion. if he runs to that sort of level he'll be extremely hard to beat.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread Another disastrous day in my attempt to make the jumping game pay. Loudmouth beaten in a photo, in addition to two 3rd places. But I won't give up. It's a long winter to come...

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread 15.50 Plumpton: Loose Chips @ 11/4 VC - 4pts win Think the McManus horse is too short and Loose Chips in contrast too big a price. The seven year old is back after from his seasonal break but should be fit for racing as his trainer is in fine form lately and jockey Noel Fehily is on board. Loose Chips looked a chaster in the making last season, he jumps generally very well and his performance at Kempton on Boxing Day was very impressive, when he made all from the front, jump big and fluent, and found plenty under pressure. He was below par the next two times but that came in much stronger races. He should improve this year for the switch to the big fences and with conditions in favour, as he loves the mud, he should have a really good chance to make a winning comeback.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread Will try to concentrate on the better races in the future, and will see how that goes, if it is possible for me to find some value there, while looking a bit deeper into the results it has to be said all bets in lower grade handicaps have been losses. Which tells it's own story. Profit/Loss looks horrendous anyway... Overall Stats: Staked: 138pts Returned: 92.27pts Profit/Loss: -45.73pts Bets: 51 Wins: 6 15.05 Aintree: Wishfull Thinking @ 13/2 VC - 3pts win Wishfull Thinking looks to me the horse with the right profile for this race and also overpriced in this field. He must have a definite chance to win it if he is fit, with conditions very much to suit. He's reported to be in excellent form at home, so his trainer has him probably ready for this race, and why not, good money and a grade 2 is up for grabs. Wishfull Thinking kicked off his campaign last season in this race as well, when finishing runner-up, even though a long way beaten, but that day off a 4lb higher mark. Overall the last season was a quite successful for him, he won twice and finished 3rd on two other occasions. He'll be fine on the ground tomorrow, which might not be totally testing, if the rain arrives in the evening as forcasted and he gets the trip alright while 2m 4f around a flat track like Aintree might be close to his optimum anyway. He has top weight to carry, which is tough, but he can surly run up to this mark and I rate him a better chance than 13/2.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread 14.10 Wetherby: Cantlow @ 7/1 VC - 2pts win If ready to run on his seasonal debut Cantlow might have the edge over the rest of the field off his current mark. He was rapidly improving last year over fences, winning well at Plumpton and Taunton, beating subsequent Listed race winner Oscara Dara easily. His jumping wasn't always accurate, but he learned and got better with time. The end of his season was disappointing when he was declared a non-runner at Cheltenham when bleeding before the off and his trainer said he felt Cantlow was already past his peak when running poorly at Aintree. He's much better than that form, no doubt and remains an exciting prospect this season. Barry Geraghty takes the ride, so a top man in the saddle today as well. Therefore plenty to like about his chance at a tasty price.