Robertob's jump racing thread

[Smarty72]

3.20 Cheltenham: Class 2 Hurdle, 3m

I missed the big prices for Dark Spirit but still feel the current odds represent some fair value in this field for a mare that likes the track, the ground and has won over this sort of trip in the past. Her record fresh is fine and the drop back into handicaps will suit.

She wasn't disgraced in much better races towards the end last year, however clearly found out for class there. She remains a progressive mare nonetheless and is on fair mark. The help of a decent 10lb claimer is a bonus though, given that the yard is going strongly in recent weeks too.

Dark Spirit @ 6/1 Coral - 5pts Win

Lovely drift on price! Well done Rob!

[robertob]

Thanks Smarty. Couldn't believe when I saw her going off 11/1. Unfortunately Drumlee Sunset finished only 2nd. Was beaten for speed in the end imo but should improve big time for a step up in trip I suspect.

 

2.10 Cheltenham: Class 2 Handicap Chase, 2m

Question marks surrounding most of this field, but I do really like Going Concern for the in-form Evan Williams yard. a progressive sort last season over fences, he has won three of his last six starts. He has to defy a career highest mark and was disappointing when last seen in April, but has done well off a break in the past.

Conditions should suit down to the grounds, with the rain expected over Cheltenham tomorrow not having to be an inconvenience

Going Concern @ 11/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win

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4.30 Cheltenham: Class 2 Novice Chase, 2m 4f

I was initially very much drawn towards Parlour Games. The classy Novice hurdler left a lasting impression but whether this flat bred gelding can take to chasing is very much up in the air. Also I had the perception that he is best on a flat track and that Cheltenham doesn't quite suit.

As the value alternative I really like Double Shuffle though. Bred to be a chaser, he is still lightly raced, was progressive last year, has form in an Irish point to point and will love the trip. He has only won at flat tracks yet, so Cheltenham is very much an unknown. But with the low weight he makes appeal. 

Double Shuffle @ 12/1 Bet365 - 5pts Win

[robertob]

3.30 Aintree: Monet's Garden Old Roan Chase (Grade 2)

A hugely competitive renewal of this Grade 2 race, certainly a tougher contest than the one Wishful Thinking won last year. The 12 year old has a difficult task on hand to try and defend his crown. Because he is down to last years handicap mark he is not completely out of it, but others make certainly more appeal. 

Jonjo O'Neill's Johns Spirit is one of those well fancied runners. He's done remarkably well as a fresh horse in the last number of years, so a bold bid is expected. A career best is required, but this progressive chaser has a good chance to go close judged on his fair effort in the Grade 1 Melling Chase when last seen at this very same venue. 

Rajdhani Express has won here at Aintree over the Grand National fences on his final start last season. He is competitive on that particular form obviously, although his win record isn't all that impressive and a big mark makes life not easy today against excellent opposition.

Always improving over the last two seasons has been Paul Nicholls' charge Sound Investment. The seven year old won four of his ten starts over fences and was placed in three more of those. He rounded up last season with an excellent Grade 3 success at Newbury and connections will hope for further progress this year. 

He already has a prep run under his belt - he run okay in a competitive Grade 3 hurdle a fortnight ago and was lucky not to exit the race after the first when his young jockey almost fell off. He's expected to come on for the run and that should put him right into the mix here of a good mark. 

Another rather lightly raced sort over fences is Buywise, who already has a Grade 2 success to his name. Last season he only won over hurdles, although he was competitive in strong races, mostly around Cheltenham. He's on a competitive mark but will need to prove that he can act on this flat speed track as well.

Duke Of Navan is an interesting contender. So far mostly tested over two miles, he will step up in trip and we find out whether his stamina holds up. If he stays the distance he'll be right there when it matters I suspect. 

It's hard to trust Splash Of Ginge these day but on best form he can be in the mix. The Irish bring over Lord Ben. A versatile chaser, who was not disgraced when last seen at Listowel behind a good Gigginstown winner, although more is required here. 

You can't fully rule out Brave Spartacus who has fitness on his side. He's already a Listed Chase winner and could improve again. It's harder to make a case for Surf An Turf and also Le Bacardy, as those two will have to prove their worthiness in this competitive field.

Summary: This is an excellent renewal: competitive and close to call. Price wise I feel Sound Investment makes the most appeal though. He's expected to be fit and is a progressive sort, probably not at the end of the road yet in terms of improvement and should love the conditions here. His mark gives him every chance and connections had this race in mind for a long time. 

Sound Investment @ 9/1 Bet365 - 5pts Win

[robertob]

2.30 Aintree: Veterans' Handicap Chase (Class 2)

It's easy to see why Danimix is favoured to complete a hat-trick today. He was utterly impressive in his last two, for whatever reason clearly a rejuvenated horse and this race doesn't look too deep. Question mark is a career highest mark.

Better value than the 5/2 favourite may be Grade 2 winning chaser Ely Brown. It is a concern that he didn't complete either of his last three races, but the break will likely done him the world of good and his record as a fresh horse is remarkable. He has won twice at Aintree before and also over the 3m 1f trip. 

He gets a big chance by the handicapper, having been dropped to 135 now - his last winning mark, albeit over hurdles. But judged on Novice Chase Grade 2 success, he could be leniently treated today, if he can find his old sparkle back. Top jockey is booked, so he has every chance to run well.

Ely Brown @ 6/1 Bet365 - 5pts Win

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2.45 Wincanton: Handicap Chase (Class 3)

Competitive stayers contest where most of the eight starts are in with a fair chance. The "sexy" horse the Nicholls favourite Cowards Close but given the competitive nature of this race, he's a skinny price. If According To Trev could find back to his best form, he'd be a prime selection for this race, but his last three starts are clear reason for concern. 

I do like Handy Andy as the bottom weight to go well, his poor win record puts me off though. Forgotten Gold and Standing Ovation have a decent shout in this, but Best Boy Barney looks underestimated in this field. 

He has been mostly competitive in his last handful or so starts, rarely goes really wrong. He won at Kempton back in April a good chase and followed up with another nice performance at the same venue when runner-up behind Champion Court - a very strong piece of form. 

He didn't quite run to the same sort of form the next two, but this here looks a bit easier, and with conditions sure to suit as well as fitness assured, he could run a big race.

Best Boy Barney @ 12/1 Bet365 - 5pts Win

[robertob]

A really nice performance by Sound Investment at Aintree yesterday afternoon - he jumped well, travelled well and out battled his rivals in the closing stages, powering home in the final furlong. The other two were long gone when it mattered. 

 

3.55 Ayr: Novice Handicap Chase (Clas 3), 2m 4f 110y

I feel the favourite Jack Steel is quite a skinny price. I can see why, to an extend: lightly raced and potential for big improvement. But does he look like a chaser? I'm not sure. He is a full-brother to two horses who have achieved zero - I'm prepared to take him on.

I really like the look of the grey Un Noble instead. He is a big, scopey chaser in the making, equally lightly raced. He won a Handicap Hurdle earlier this year in nice style over this sort of trip and any cut in the ground won't inconvenience him. Un Noble is the type of horse sure to improve for the switch to fences and therefore represents better value than the favourite.

Have to call out Dr Moloney as well, who is likely to benefit from the drop in rip . However I have reservations about the ground and he might be one to keep an eye on for the future. 

Un Noble @ 9/2 Paddy Power - 5pts Win

[robertob]

3.30 Bangor: Class 4 Handicap Chase, 2m 1f

A brutal race, extremely uncompetitive and I can only see three horses with realistic chances to land it, while none of these can be trusted to deliver, though. Gee Hi on old form makes appeal, but a more than two years long lay-off he hasn't been exactly excelled over fences in two starts and it is hard to know what to get. 

Seemingly the best chance is Chankillo, who brings winning form from a lower class chase over 19f into this race. The drop in trip may not be a problem and if he can overcome a career highest mark then he's clearly the one to beat... if he can.

Best value appears to be Keychain. He is down to his last winning mark and was slightly unlucky a fortnight ago at Huntingdon when he stayed on strongly in third after a troubled run. The drop in trip on good ground at a sharp track seems not ideal, but he has won over 17f in the past and has as good chance to win this race as anybody. 

Keychain is more than double the price of Chankillo, so it's clear to me who's the better value. That says none of these will likely ever find a better chance to win race. 

Keychain @ 11/2 VC - 5pts Win

[robertob]

1.55 Aintree: Class 2 Handicap Hurdle, 3m 149y

Intriguing to see Shutthefrontdoor back over hurdles. The former Irish Grand National winner should enjoy the conditions and trip and has done well as a fresh horse in the past, however as top weight of a mark off 146 he would have to be at his absolute very best to land this, given the last hurdle race he won was off 135. He may well be a better horse nowadays, nonetheless, it's not an easy task. 

Favourite is race fit Our Kaempfer. I was quite interested in this lad the other day at Chepstow. He ran well but was still a good deal beaten. He has to prove that he can stay this trip now, but if he does he'd be a major chance, given this is an easier race and he's still quite unexposed. 

To an extend the same goes for Broybourne. Quite a good handicapper on the the flat, winner of a 2m handicap when rated 89, he has taken well to hurdles. He has been placed in a Listed handicap Hurdle back in April and that form gives him a good chance if his stamina holds up, although he's much higher in the mark now and will certainly need to take another step forward.

Shotavodka is quite an interesting contender. He was an excellent second on his seasonal reappearance last week and is certainly down to a handy mark judged on past performances. Question mark is the trip. He has been placed over 3m before but his best performances are all over much shorter. 

Jonjo O'Neill's second string Join The Clan has been progressive last season, winning twice in Handicap company over hurdles over three miles plus. He couldn't match those performances when upped in class subsequently but comes back as a fresh horse now which might be the secret to him. Down to a fair mark at the moment, he'll certainly any rain that's falling until the start of the race. 

With conditions sure to suit I think this lad has as good a chance as anybody in this wide open race. Having the assistance of excellent 7lb claimer Patrick Cowley, who has won on Join The Clan before, is also a big plus. He seems a rather huge price in my eyes and should outrun this price tag.

Join The Clan @ 14/1 William Hill - 5pts Win

[Smarty72]

Cracking early price on Join The Clan, now around the 6\1 mark although guess there will be a rule 4 on your price.

Fascinating race made more interesting by been a Pertemps Qualifier for the Cheltenham Festival with the top 6 finishers all been eligible.

I am sure that Jonjo has one eye on the final at the festival, a race he loves to target, with this horse so my only concern would be a tender ride just to qualify with out having any effect on his handicap mark. Hope I am wrong for your sake!

The other I will be watching with interest will be the Dan Skelton runner Just A Normal Day who would need to win to stand a chance in the final at Cheltenham, needs to Improve current OR so expect a big run.

Anyway good luck! And keep up the thread, always on my daily reading list.

[robertob]

Thanks smarty, much appreciated your input. Unfortunately Join The Clan ran poorly that day, but seems Jonjo is slowly hitting some form lately! Some interesting on today at Cheltenham.... way too much good racin on in general, hard to keep up with it all!

 

12.40 Cheltenham: Triumph Hurdle Trial (Grade 2), 2m

Realistically there are three standout horses in this line-up. I find it easy to discount Coo Star Sivola and Wolf Of Windlesham, although to distinguish the other three runners isn't that easy. 

However, on the fact that Oceane seems to be a good ground lover I'd be slightly concerned about the rain coming. Leaves us with the two French imports Romain De Senam and Fingertips. Both met in France earlier this year, where the Paul Nicholls recruit got the better of the new David Pipe acquisition. It was a very close race, though, only half a lengths between the pair in the end.

 Romain De Senam has since been blowing away some minor opposition on his UK debut and should be fit and ready to go today, with the rain a non-issue. In contrast we don't know whether this here is any more than a pipe opener for Fingertips. The Pipe yard doesn't really go strongly at the moment, so that is a real concern.

However on a pure price basis I find it hard to ignore Fingertips. Previous form suggests there is not as much between the the pair as the odds suggest. I would imagine connections want to see what they have got and the horse is ready to. Ground should suit though we have to find out how he handles the track. 

Fingertips @ 4/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win

[robertob]

1.50 Cheltenham: Handicap Chase (Grade 3), 3m 3F 71Y

Some interesting horses in this race but I feel it's worth a punt to go with still unexposed Knockanrawley. A seven year old who has done pretty well as a fresh horse in the past, he could be on a lenient mark. He won off 6lb lower a big Handicap Chase at Newbury last December and he's one who won't have an issue staying the trip today, although 4m 1f seemed a bit too far after all on his final start last season, albeit he was far from disgraced in 4th in the Eider Handicap Chase.

This trip today looks ideal and the arriving rain shouldn't be an inconvenience. In fact he is two from three in good to soft. It'll be only his seventh start over fences and the testing Cheltenham course should work in his favour - for a red hot yard and jockey I feel he is a big price.

Knockanrawley @ 14/1 Paddy Power - 5ps Win 

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2.25 Cheltenham: Paddy Power Gold Cup (Grade 3), 2m 4f

Is this the one for Art Mauresque to lose? I feel so. well, it depends on how much more rain we get, but if it stays as it is now, it shouldn't be too much of a problem for this rapidly improving Paul Nicholls inmate. 

He was good on his debut run but improved big time here at Cheltenham last month when he landed a decent Novice Chase. Yes, Parlour Games was disappointing that day, but the runner-up has franked the form yesterday, to an extend at least. I was mightily impressed with Art Mauresque though, how easily he closed the gap to the leader and how he stormed up the hill.

Of a mark off 147 he is potentially well in here, given the five year old has had only six starts over fences yet, and took each test in his own stride. There is almost certainly more to come.

Says this is obviously an enormously competitive race and a bit of luck is sometimes required. Irish Cavalier, Buywise and Johns Spirit are others I fancy to do well here today, and you could name plenty more that have a fair shot to land the prize. 

But at 14/1, despite the uneasy ground, I'm more than prepared to take a gamble on this exciting Art Mauresque, who in my book is overpriced.

Art Mauresque @ 14/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win 

[robertob]

2.10 Cheltenham: Shloer Chase (Grade 2), 2m

Quite an intriguing contest that obviously evolves very much around the question: how good is Sprinter Sacre? His trainer is less than quietly confident, in fact he's actually been bullish in his comments earlier this week.

Personally I'm not convinced. The problems this former superstar had are well known. Is he really 100% on his seasonal debut? I doubt it. The ground turning softer than you want it for him with all the issues around the breathing is a big question mark, so is the Cheltenham hill these days.

As much as I would love to see Sprinter Sacre back to something close of his best, so much I have to doubt he'll ever be. In my book he is more like a 6/1 chance in this field than the 5/2 currently on offer. With the ground in mind he may well be taken out anyway.

Another of the old guard of former superstars is Somersby. Surely never been reached the heights of Sprinter Sacre, though the veteran is a multiple Champion Chase runner-up as well as 19 times placed in Graded company! That says he has won only a handful of those and can be best described as a depressing brides mate.

Not getting any younger, the eleven year old veteran would need to be close to his best to win today. Reportedly he's in good order and I assume he's geared up for a big run. Whether he has still the class, we'll find out. He had it last season, certainly, when he finished second - yet again - in the Champion Chase at the Festival.

Having his poor strike rate in mind and the fact that Somersby has actually never won at Cheltenham, he's probably easy enough to oppose. However in the context of this race, where he receives four pounds from rivals lower rated than him, as well as 10 pounds from Mr Mole, he's has to have strong credentials, nonetheless.

Mr. Mole, albeit seemingly not really enjoining Cheltenham in the past, would be a huge runner today, if he wouldn't have to give an awful lot of weight away to the rest of the field. His record as a fresh horse does offset this fact to an extend, but he would need to run to a new level to win this. As a seven year old he could do that, if you want to be positive about his chances.

Croco Bay and Savello are the outsiders in this field, and given their ratings of 151 and 154 you'd expect them to come up short. You can argue both have fitness on their side and - at least in the case of Savello - course and distance form on offer. So neither of them is completely out. Taken the quality of the rest of the field into account I struggle to see them going close, though.

Without the shadow of a doubt Simply Ned has the race at his mercy. The eight year old was runner-up in this contest last year, a race which turned out to be extremely strong form. He has a run under his belt as well, returning to the track in successful manner at Kelso last month.

He looks an improving sort, possible to be even better this year and that gives him a prime chance today. He didn't land a blow in the Champion Chase last season, though, and has to give 4lb away to Somersby and Sprinter Sacre, despite the fact that these two are higher rated. So he will have to improve again, a bit at least, although those two lads may regress as well.

Summary: Crunch time! This should be exciting to watch. I believe Simply Ned has an excellent chance to take his form to another level. He's a fair price to do that and clearly is the one to beat. But betting wise I feel the 5/1 on offer for Somersby is generous. Despite his underwhelming win record, the fact that he finished runner-up in the Champion Chase last season gives him the strongest possible credentials in this race.

He receives four pounds from what I believe is the main danger. He's likely to be fully wound up for the race today and has no issues with the conditions whatsoever. This looks an ideal opportunity to win a race at the jump racing's HQ at last.

Sommersby @ 5/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win

[robertob]

2.40 Cheltenham: Greatwood Hurdle (Grade 3 Handicap), 2m

Despite the big field and natural competitiveness of the Greatwood, two horses stand out for me: Bouvreuil and Totalize. The former one is only a four year old and surely will have a future as a chaser but should profit from another season over timber, now more experienced and stronger, the Nicholls inmate looks an exciting prospect.

He finished an excellent runner-up in the Fred Winter at the Festival last season which is very strong form in its own right. Back from a break the Greatwood was his early season target, so he should be ready to go today on ground which he's sure to love. Big field, good pace, soft ground - perfect conditions. Of a mark off 139 looks one with plenty of scope. 

Totalize is a different sort. He hasn't been seen over hurdles for quite a while, instead had not a bad season on the flat. However reportedly he has a schooling run over hurdles in the meantime and seemingly looked good. So does his hurdle form in general. 

Back in January 2014 he finished a creditable runner-up here at Cheltenham in a Handicap Hurdle behind classy Lac Fontana. If he could run to that sort of level he'd be right in the mix today off only a 3lb higher mark. Given he may well have improved since then as well as that this is only his eight start over timber, he has some scope as well.  

Bouvreuil @ 16/1 William Hill - 5pts Win
Totalize @ 11/1 Racebets - 5pts Win

[robertob]

3.00 Newbury: Hennessy Gold Cup (Grade 3 Handicap)

It's great to see Bobs Worth back as a contender for a big race. His prep over hurdles when beating Simonsing was encouraging but I find it hard to trust him to back it up stepping up to 3m plus in a much tougher race. 

Ante-post favourite Saphir Du Rheu has top credentials. His trainer knows what it takes to win the race. The six year old could still be on the up and looked striving on his seasonal debut. That says 11-12 is a tough ask and it needs a special performance. 

I struggle to see why Smad Place is as short as he is, as in my mind he will struggle in a deep race like this off a big weight. If In Doubt has still not too many miles on the clock for a seven year; he could bounce back given he's on a handy mark.

Ned Stark and The Young Master will enjoy this test of stamina in soft conditions. Both have fair credentials and could still have a bit more to offer. 

Seemingly not too much love from the punters gets last years Hennessy runner-up Houblon Des Obeaux. True, his seasonal return late in October wasn't all too encouraging, but also not completely off putting, given another crack at the Hennessy was always the target. 

He was a fine second behind subsequent Grand National winner Many Clouds but is one pound lower rated today. If in the same sort of form he must have a big chance given he backed this run up with two other strong performances subsequently. 

Houblon Des Obeaux @ 14/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win

[robertob]

Royal Bond Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)

Willie Mullins holds the keys in his hands to the outcome of this race. Exciting Long Dog might be hard to beat but stable mate Bachasson can't be underestimated.

The French import is unbeaten in four starts in Ireland and landed a good Grade 3 Hurdle in excellent style when last seen. He's also receiving some weight from Long Dog. 

Bachasson @ 7/2 Paddy Power - 5pts Win

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Hatton's Grace Hurdle (Grade 1)

If Arctic Fire runs to his best he'll be probably running away with this. However he's fallen short to prevail on the highest level up until now and is one I'm prepared to take on.

Receiving 4lb from all his rivals, French gelding Gwencily Berbas is an interesting alternative. He probably would like it a bit softer but has won on yielding ground here at Fairyhouse over 2m on Grade 3 level earlier this month.

Still lightly raced, he is unexposed over the 2 1/2m trip, which on pedigree should very much suit. 

Gwencily Berbas @ 10/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win