Robertob's jump racing thread

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread 14.20 Sedgefield: Handicap Chase (Class 3) - Plenty of form on offer, means plenty of exposed individuals. Can't have the two market principles. Hi George appears to be the most talented animal in the field, given the excellent form of his last run. However that came almost a year ago and he could be vulnerable on his comeback run, over a trip that may stretch his stamina on any given day anyway. Bless The Wings on his best form would surly be a prime candidate to land this, but he hasn't reached he heights of 2012 for quite a while now and looks not really well handicapped here. That says a solid run to his current mark could well be enough to prevail, which isn't impossible in this field, but there is no margin for error and his price is fair, not nothing else. Darna and Lucky Landing I too I easily ignore here, it is not so easy with the two most interesting runners in this field: Alderbrook Lad and Riskier. The latter one appears to be at his best when fresh, his record is certainly indicating this. So it must be a bonus that he is back after a 188 days long break tomorrow. He is also down to a very handy chasing mark, after a couple of below par efforts. But he won off a 2lb lower mark a Handicap Chase by a wide margin last October, a season he was quite rapidly improving over fences. He didn't beat anything compared to the level he is competing here, but off his current mark he could be well in here as the bottom weight, with conditions, track and trip surly to suit, a yard in good form and a jockey who rides the track really well too. Alderbrook Lad seems to be the rock solid choice in this field in contrast. Good form, good chaser, good hurdler, fair mark. I think he might be a better chaser and no margin for error off his current mark over fences, and that may leave him vulnerable. Ten year old Thiti Pearl is an interesting contender too. He should come on for his recent run, though a high mark leaves him vulnerable and age may simply catch up with him. Riskier @ 7/1 Ladbrokes - 5pts win

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread

14.20 Sedgefield: Handicap Chase (Class 3) - Plenty of form on offer, means plenty of exposed individuals. Can't have the two market principles. Hi George appears to be the most talented animal in the field, given the excellent form of his last run. However that came almost a year ago and he could be vulnerable on his comeback run, over a trip that may stretch his stamina on any given day anyway. Bless The Wings on his best form would surly be a prime candidate to land this, but he hasn't reached he heights of 2012 for quite a while now and looks not really well handicapped here. That says a solid run to his current mark could well be enough to prevail, which isn't impossible in this field, but there is no margin for error and his price is fair, not nothing else. Darna and Lucky Landing I too I easily ignore here, it is not so easy with the two most interesting runners in this field: Alderbrook Lad and Riskier. The latter one appears to be at his best when fresh, his record is certainly indicating this. So it must be a bonus that he is back after a 188 days long break tomorrow. He is also down to a very handy chasing mark, after a couple of below par efforts. But he won off a 2lb lower mark a Handicap Chase by a wide margin last October, a season he was quite rapidly improving over fences. He didn't beat anything compared to the level he is competing here, but off his current mark he could be well in here as the bottom weight, with conditions, track and trip surly to suit, a yard in good form and a jockey who rides the track really well too. Alderbrook Lad seems to be the rock solid choice in this field in contrast. Good form, good chaser, good hurdler, fair mark. I think he might be a better chaser and no margin for error off his current mark over fences, and that may leave him vulnerable. Ten year old Thiti Pearl is an interesting contender too. He should come on for his recent run, though a high mark leaves him vulnerable and age may simply catch up with him. Riskier @ 7/1 Ladbrokes - 5pts win

Sleeping one night and waking up with the urge to re-visit this race. Looking through it, I still believe Riskier is big value in this field as the feather weight. He ticks all the right boxes for me. Alderbrook Lad is one I'm still scratching my head around. I feel 6/1 is too big, on the other hand I feel he has no margin for error and since he is a small horse and always has here and there a jumping error, I can't get really warm with him. However, I came to the conclusion that I can't leave Hi Goerge unbacked, since he is available at 7/2. The fact that he won twice as a fresh horse convinces me that he has every chance to go well today. Trip on really soft ground is something that slightly worries me nonetheless, but with the ground potentially drying out a bit, I also have to trust the trainer in his judgement since he has a good record at this track, so has the jockey on board, and based on the chasing debut last season, Hi George could well be better than the mark of 135 which allocated to him currently. Therefore I'm going to have a bet on him in addition to Riskier. Hi George @ 7/2 VC - 5 pts win

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread 13.10 Huntingdon: Novices' Handicap Chase (Class 4) - The favourite looks rock solid after his recent win when he won comfortably, good round of jumping and didn't have to work too hard. However it was a poor race he was entitled to win. The penalty is basically cancelled out by the 10lb allowance of the claimer on board today, and Tothemoonandback's 2nd behind Standing Ovation last year gives him theoretically the edge in this race. If you want to pick a hole into this favourite, it might be the trip, as he comes down slightly in distance and has never won over shorter than 3m2f - which in fact was his most recent success, the first and only career success, in heavy conditions. That and the fact that he has a huge weight to shoulder today, might make him vulnerable. I take him on with feather weight Over My Head - who, looks in context of this race overpriced. His only win to date is a runaway class 5 Handicap hurdle win over 3m in heavy conditions, a poor race which he was entitled to win back in December last year. He followed up with two more or less decent performances. Fitness wise I've got to trust the trainer, but Over My Head finds ideal conditions with ground and trip today and he is on a very low mark on his chasing debut, given that he is bred to improve over fences. If he goes well fresh today, and the jumping holds up, he could be one who gives the favourite a big fright I feel. Over My Head @ 10/1 Coral - 5pts win

[Smarty72]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread Just going through this race myself! Will post soon when finished. Am really enjoying your previews and gives a good alternative view. Keep up the good work Sent from my C6603 using PL Forum

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread Another 2nd ffs! Plenty of money for Over My Head close to the off and he started really quickly then, probably too quickly on the first circuit. Jumping was okay, and credit to him that he was still challenging after jumping the last, but eventually the favourite got up. Would have backed the winner at 5/2 SP actually, but was way too short this morning...

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread Hi George unseated and Riskier 3rd after leading for most parts but fading away two out. Not a good day. Well fancied Darna won it with loads in hand, a horse I just couldn't have in todays conditions.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread 14.10 Exeter: Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (Class 3) - I feel this is quite a hot race with most of those runners in the line-up very likely to do better over fences. The market reflects that to a certain extend, nonetheless Ballyculla, currently trading as the favourite, seems to short to my eyes. Surely one who may be able to improve further going chasing now, but I feel he is on quite a high mark already, and first has to show that he is capable of 133, now over fences. Minellahalfcentury is one I look forward to see with huge interest. He is one who should have plenty of improvement in him. He always looked a chaser, and his excellent point to point is confirming this notion. He finished a 2l beaten runner-up behind Foxrock in a point-to-point in Ireland two years ago, and the winner went on to become a multiple Grade 2 winner of fences. Under rules, Minellahalfcentury was rather progressive, resulting in a nice Handicap hurdle win in February. His subsequent disappointing performance at Cheltenham may have been the result of quick ground or breathing problems. He had since then a wind op and that is obviously a concern. However it may also help him to improve even further. Potentially he could improve past all his rivals here and looks not badly treated on official rating. Virtuel D'oudon looks a stayer through and through and has a fine pedigree pointing towards more improvement over the big obstacles. However he was disappointing on his comeback run and judged on that his opening mark looks stiff enough. Moorlands Mist and Chase The Spud can't be ruled out but they look up against it here in my mind. Desert Joe is one who should be better over fences. He is a ptp winner and has a nice pedigree suggesting chasing will be his game. He's been off for roughly two years and may need this run. Undoubtedly the horse that appears to be the most likely winner is Harry's Farewell. A point to point winner, nicely improving over hurdles, runaway winner at Kempton in February, he is potentially on a lenient mark and must go really well from bottom of the weights here. Looks likely to progress further over fences too. Harry's Farewell @ 7/2 Coral - 10pts win Minellahalfcentury @ 4/1 Coral - 5pts win

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread 14.50 Ayr: Handicap Chase (Class 3) - Milborough: Winner of Novice Chase last year, 2^nd in Grade 2 subsequently. Doesn’t look always the most fluent jumper. Fair mark on seasonal reappearance but hard to know what to get today. Conditions to suit though. - And The Man: Progressive last winter, loves the mud, steps up in trip but won over 3m before. New career highest required on seasonal return. Yard in good form. - Balbriggan: Quickly turned out again after Hurdle win yesterday. Should relish conditions and looks in fine form but on high enough mark judged on previous chasing form. - Always Right: Prolific winner at his best, won a fortnight ago over CD. Still on decent mark judged on old form but potentially vulnerable to younger rivals. - King Of The Worlds: Disappointing on return last month, progressive last season as a novice. Struggled subsequently in Handicaps but down in mark. Bit to prove and trip a worry. - Harry The Viking: Hasn’t won since 2011 and disappointing more than anything else since then. Not sure to appreciate ground conditions. - The Friary: Course and distance winner in February in the mud, will love todays conditions and that form gives him fair chance off 2lb higher. Disappointing in two starts subsequently, including seasonal return last month. - Presenting Junior: Progressive this summer on good ground with couple of wins, not stopping to improve with recent CD success. Ground a worry and career highest required. Verdict: Questions marks for all horses in the line-up. Always Right seems the solid choice, as he is proven and well in form but vulnerable to improvers. Favourite Ballbriggan won just yesterday over hurdles and is clearly in good nick, so has surly to enter calculations, however doesn't make an attractive betting proposition judged on preview chasing form, as he looks on a high enough mark now. Presenting Junior is sure to go well if he can overcome ground fears, but even then a new career best is required. Least to worry is about And The Man. A progressive chaser who loves it here around Ayr and while he has to prove he is up to the current mark, it looks a fair scenario that he is indeed. He should get the trip and while he has been poor on his last seasonal reappearances, it looks significant that his yard is in good form this time around. He has ideal conditions today to go beyond a mark off 130. A safer on The Friary looks wise. He is quite a big price and could easily outrun it if he finds back to his form. He probably needed his comeback run. He looked progressive last season, goes well at Ayr, over the trip and todays ground and is on a good mark. And The Man @ 5/1 Coral - 10pts win The Friary @ 14/1 Coral - 5pts win Edit: The Friary NR

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread 14.40 Exeter: Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) - Serienschock: Grade 3 winning hurdler in France, poor on UK debut. Not sure what to expect. Conditions to suit, but trip potentially on sharp side on return after break. - Baby King: Looked good winning a maiden hurdle in Ireland. Fair opening mark for new yard on UK debut. Bound to improve. Yard in excellent form lately. - Dormello Mo: Decent hurdler in France, won Handicap hurdle on 2^nd UK start, found out for class in better races since then. Drop in mark and class should help today, so should ground conditions. - Leviathan: Bit to prove after disappointing end to last season but progressive over hurdles before and on fair mark on seasonal return. - Goohar: Found Grade 3 too hot when seen last, winner of Novice hurdle before. Potentially more to come and on fair mark but hard to know what to expect on return. Verdict: Baby King is an exciting prospect and may well turn out to be better than this lot. However he has not much experience and remains to be seen how good he is. He is short enough in the betting. Dormello Mo should relish todays conditions and this easier race will help, he has a bit to prove nonetheless. Goohar may be able to exploit his mark but I feel Leviathan is the one who is overpriced in this field. He was disappointing towards the end of last season but showed good level of form before, winning a couple of races. Conditions are fine today, and judged on his Stratford win he is on a good mark, rated 127 now. Yard was in decent form lately, so one can expect him to be ready for this race, which should be a good pointer of what is next on the horizon for him. Leviathan @ 11/2 William Hill - 5pts win

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread 14.00 Bangor: Handicap Chase (Class 2) - Across The Bay: Loved the mud, won last time in December over further at Haydock. Unseating rider subsequently and 14^th in National. High enough mark but does well fresh usually. - Dursey Sound: Good winner during the summer, and confirmed progress with 2^nd in Listed Chase at Market Rasen in September, Disappointing subsequently at Cheltenham over 3m+ and trip and ground a big worry today. - Knock A Hand: Progressive chaser, excellent winner in Novice Chase in February, followed up with good runner-up performance. Will relish conditions and trip. Richard Johnson booked indicated big run expected today. - Count Salazar: Consistent performer, but high enough in the mark and trip in soft conditions a worry - Ikorodu Road: Hasn’t been seen for almost a year, but decent record fresh. Won over further in the past and has acted on soft ground, although best form on quicker surface. Fair mark. - Whats Happening: Looks a tough task on what he has achieved to date, that says has potential to improve further and should get trip, also has form on ground. Never went thus far on heavy ground before though. Fair mark. - Bob Ford: Won well on seasonal reappearance over shorter. Big rise in the mark. Won over 3m in the mud in the past and not impossible to have still more to offer. That says this is much more demanding than anything before. - Herdsman: Debut for new yard. Pulled up at Cheltenham in March but won 26f Chace in havy conditions before. So sure to act in todays conditions. Up in mark though and career highest required. Record fresh abysmal and yard without winner for almost two weeks. - Howard’s Legacy: Last win in February 2013. Close runner-up on penultimate start last season is best form since then and while he’s slightly down in mark, this here is much more difficult. Verdict: Looks a wide open race with many horses unknown in terms of what to expect today. However Knock A Hand strikes me as the one who has most solid credentials and looks should be shorter in the betting. Currently trading as the 4/1 favourite, I feel his level of form deems more respect. He runs consistently well. His Leicester win and subsequent 2nd at Uttoxeter this spring rates as probably the best form on offer here. With trip and ground likely to suit him, as he appears to me to be a very game horse that relishes staying tip of finishes, he'll have a very fine chance to get his season off to a perfect start. He is on a workable mark, and while his record fresh isn't anything impressive, the booking of Richard Johnson who has a fine record with trainer Richard Lee, is a confidence boost. Knock A Hand @ 4/1 Coral - 5pts win

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread Knock A Hand second, beaten by the bottom weight who found plenty of improvement. Huge disappoint at Exeter from Harry's Farewell and Minellahalfcentury, both backed heavily but in fairness it was a mockery of a jump race. Omitting ALL fences in the back straight. Shame.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread Oh dear...And The Man down at the first fence! Leviathan made all but faded late. What a day... Huge loss.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread 14.25 Clonmel: Clonmel Oil Chase (grade 2) - Roi Du Mee: Trip probably too sharp, last four forms either finished distanced last or pulled up. - Sizing Europe: Still loves the game, great comeback run at Gowran Park. Unbeaten over trip. Can handle ground. Gives weight away to younger rivals. - Rathlin: Ground and trip perfectly fine, should relish heavy conditions. But usually found out for class in Graded company in recent years. Has to be at his very best to stand a chance. - Alderwood: Grade 1 winning hurdler who loves the mud. Not quite achieved same standard over fences yet. Drop in trip should help and ground in favour, but hard to fancy on recent form. - Realt Mor: Perfect conditions today with ground and trip his optimum. Faller lto on first start in a year.. Hard to know what to expect but if finding back to his best, he’s in with big shout. - Rubi Light: Will love conditions, but hasn’t won for almost three years and back after long break. Tough ask to win this first time out. - Champagne Fever: Beaten as favourite a couple of times last season. Went too quick at Punchestown, strong run at Cheltenham. Usually best when fresh. Obvious chance if he gets the trip. Only success over 2.5m inconclusive in that regard. Trainer thinks he probably needs the run. Verdict: The obvious favourite is Champagne Fever, who is the youngest horse with most improvement likely to come. He receives weight and that should give him the edge. However he is short enough in the market, given that he hasn’t fully convinced me that he gets the trip, as well as his trainer voiced concerns about fitness. Veteran Sizing Europe is the main rival and on his most recent run, should run big with no problems in terms of conditions. Bounce factor may come into play though. It’s not easy to fancy anything else in this race, however Realt Mor looks certainly overpriced. If he recovered fully from his recent fall, and can find back to something close to his best, he must rate a danger, no back over 2.5m on heavy ground, which looks likely to be his optimum. He won the G1 Fairyhouse Gold Cup over this trip on heavy ground back in 2013, even though since then he hasn’t done much. That is the obvious worry. At 25/1 a chance is taken, though. Realt Mor @ 25/1 Bet365 – 1pt win

[Smarty72]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread Good luck today! I looked at this race and like you think that Champagne Fever looks to short in the betting to risk on his seasonal return. Not concerned about him getting the trip, breed to get up to 3 miles and if he continues to progress could be a future gold cup horse. But Mullins has mentioned a change of tactics for Champagne Fever from his usual front running tactics and along with fitness is enough for me to look for an alternative. Sizing Europe is the main danger as you say but am now concerned about the ground (Heavy) and only just raceable. Would be one hell of a ride for Sizing Europe to win but likely to be involved at the finish. Think you are right to look for an alternative to these 2, but I can not decide on what is the best alternative! Probably going to leave this race alone. Great preview and keep it up! Good luck!

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread Cheers mate. Should be quite an intriguing contest and from a pure racing point of view I'd love to see Sizing defying age on more time. Look forward to it, the only race I've got a bet in as well. Got a little carried away yesterday and paid for it. Can't find anything else that I do really like, so leave it as it is... About Fever and trip, I suppose it's true & you're right on breeding he could well progress into one that gets much further. It just concerns me what I have seen at the track itself, where he doesn't quite appear to me to be a stayer. His 20f Punchestown success was inconclusive, and his only other start over the trip, then over hurdles, resulted in defeat. So that in combination with the very tough going today (if it's only half as bad in Clonmel as it is here in Dublin, then they need some swimmies!) worries me in terms of trip. Or to say, it is worry enough to not back him for a short price. Would be a different matter if they'd offer 2/1 I suppose.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread

14.25 Clonmel: Clonmel Oil Chase (grade 2) - Roi Du Mee: Trip probably too sharp, last four forms either finished distanced last or pulled up. - Sizing Europe: Still loves the game, great comeback run at Gowran Park. Unbeaten over trip. Can handle ground. Gives weight away to younger rivals. - Rathlin: Ground and trip perfectly fine, should relish heavy conditions. But usually found out for class in Graded company in recent years. Has to be at his very best to stand a chance. - Alderwood: Grade 1 winning hurdler who loves the mud. Not quite achieved same standard over fences yet. Drop in trip should help and ground in favour, but hard to fancy on recent form. - Realt Mor: Perfect conditions today with ground and trip his optimum. Faller lto on first start in a year.. Hard to know what to expect but if finding back to his best, he’s in with big shout. - Rubi Light: Will love conditions, but hasn’t won for almost three years and back after long break. Tough ask to win this first time out. - Champagne Fever: Beaten as favourite a couple of times last season. Went too quick at Punchestown, strong run at Cheltenham. Usually best when fresh. Obvious chance if he gets the trip. Only success over 2.5m inconclusive in that regard. Trainer thinks he probably needs the run. Verdict: The obvious favourite is Champagne Fever, who is the youngest horse with most improvement likely to come. He receives weight and that should give him the edge. However he is short enough in the market, given that he hasn’t fully convinced me that he gets the trip, as well as his trainer voiced concerns about fitness. Veteran Sizing Europe is the main rival and on his most recent run, should run big with no problems in terms of conditions. Bounce factor may come into play though. It’s not easy to fancy anything else in this race, however Realt Mor looks certainly overpriced. If he recovered fully from his recent fall, and can find back to something close to his best, he must rate a danger, no back over 2.5m on heavy ground, which looks likely to be his optimum. He won the G1 Fairyhouse Gold Cup over this trip on heavy ground back in 2013, even though since then he hasn’t done much. That is the obvious worry. At 25/1 a chance is taken, though. Realt Mor @ 25/1 Bet365 – 1pt win

If Ralt Mor's jumping would be better... he may well have gone close today. In with a big chance until a huge mistake at the 2nd last. Travelled nicely and on the heels of the eventual winner at this point. But credit where credit is due. Champagne Fever did that nicely in the end and probably would have won anyway. Trip no issue at all. My feelings about that were wrong and blown away.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread 14.25 Cheltenham: Novices' Chase (Class 2) - Bullet Street: Winner lto at Ludlow, open to further improvement, but tough weight assigned. - Splash Of Ginge: Impressive winner at this track recently, unexposed over fences, was top class hurdler and sure more to come. Gives weight away, though. - Champagne West: Excellent hurdler, former point to point winner, still lightly raced and of obvious interest on chasing debut. Fitness has to be taken on trust on seasonal reappearance. - Colour Squadron: Consistent and classy hurdler/chase who finds winning difficult. Likely to give good account with proven match fitness a big plus. - Dell’ Arca: Nicely bred, excellent hurdle form. Could well improve over fences, though not quite clear what to expect on seasonal experience. - The Wexfordian: Runner-up in point to point, lightly raced and potentially to improve over fences but tough ask to start off in this race. - Urban Hymn: Lightly raced Grade 2 winning hurdler with the potential to improve over fences. Fine runner-up on seasonal reappearance and chasing debut over trip too sharp. Will like this test today much more. Verdict: Cracking race and fair cases can me made for many. Colour Squadron deserves to be head of the market, given that he has consistent, strong Graded form to offer. However he looks more like a fair price than anything else and the fact he more often than not finds one too good, puts me off. I do like Splash Of Ginge who is likely to improve and will benefit from match fitness. He gives a good deal of weight away and would need to be a bit special to win this I feel. Champagne West is a really exciting prospect and if fit, he’ll be bound for a big run. He looks a fair price in my eyes. So does Dell’ Arca who may find the Cheltenham hill in soft conditions over this trip a bit too much in the end. Urban Hymn in contrast should very much relish the trip and the ground and I expect him to benefit a great deal from his recent seasonal reappearance which should set him up nicely for today. Tested over fences for the first time, over too short 2m – he looks open to significant improvement and looks the one who is slightly overpriced in this field. Urban Hymn @ 9/2 VC – 5pts win

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread Mockery of a jump race yet again due to low sun. A 2,5m flat race with the occasional fence isn't really all that exciting to watch... Urban Hymn had it all from the front but clearly lacked the pace when it mattered and finished a well beaten 3rd. Champagne West was impressive, upped the pace at a crucial part of the race in nice fashion and found the most in the closing stages. Surely an exciting prospect. Otherwise, not too many conclusions can be made on the basis of this race in my mind.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread 13.15 Cheltenham: Novices' Chase (Class 2) - Creepy: Talented hurdler and mightily impressive winner on chasing debut at Chepstow in September. Course form, but ground conditions slight worry. - Drop Out Joe: Point winner, nicely progressed over hurdles. Won well on seasonal reappearance and chasing debut. More required here though. Hasn’t won over 3m yet, but was placed. Combination of distance + soft ground potentially a worry. - Knock House: Progressive hurdler and eye-catching chasing debut last month. Big, bold jumps, and nice acceleration. Form on soft ground. Steps up in trip but every chance to get it on pedigree. - Sausalito Sunrise: Fair hurdler, won chasing debut well. Should relish trip and ground conditions and open to improvement. - Kings Palace: Smart hurdler, won G2 at Cheltenham in December. Seasonal reappearance and first start over fences. Likely to do well over fences too and interesting if he acts on ground (form on soft in NHF) and jumps well. Fitness obvious question mark. Yard in good form though. Receives weight all around. Verdict: We have a short favourite with Kings Palace, who looks a very exciting prospect. If he has recovered from his fall at Cheltenham and is fit to go for his debut, then he rates a huge chance, given the fact that he receives a good deal of weight. The yard is in fine form though, so expect him to be ready. He jumps well usually, I've no doubt that he takes well to fences either - so allot to like about him. Only thing is, that he is a very short price. I believe the biggest danger will be Knock House. A lightly raced, progressive hurdler last season, but always likely to be better suited to fences. He proved that with an utterly impressive performance at Fakenham when he jumped big and bold and produced a turn of foot in the closing staged to draw away from the field to win easily. Ground and trip are slight question marks in this combination. He has excellent form on soft going (win plus 2nd behind Champagne West) and should get the trip on breeding. But in combination, this is obviously a tough test. Yet I feel he is almost dramatically overpriced, and with chasing experience as well as match fitness, I do fancy him big time to go really close. Knock House @ 8/1 Ladbrokes - 10pts win

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread Knock House finished 4th eventually, appearing to be unable to stay the trip. Travelled and jumped nicely until 3 out but was then quickly beaten. Disappointing, and my confidence unfortunately not warranted. Yet looking back, I still thought he was well overpriced before the race. The favourite Kings Palace won very well. Looked physically very strong, jumped boldly and found more when it mattered in the closing stages. Very impressive and nice to see that he could follow on from his impressive hurdle record. The runner-up Sausalito Sunrise looks a fine prospect too. Jumped nicely and looks a fine, big horse. 14.30 Cheltenham Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) - Not much time to write about it, but I have to go with favourite Present View who looks overpriced in my mind. He will love the ground and is proven over the trip obviously, since he won a Listed Handicap chase over CD at the Festival, albeit under slightly controversial circumstances. He is a strong travelling sort, and repapered at this venue four month ago on his seasonal debut, then in a Novice Hurdle. He travelled like the winner for a long time, and just made a mistake at the last, which eventually cost him the race and he was reported to have suffered from a minor injury due to this incident. He has fully recovered, and now back over fences, I believe that run will bring him along nicely to be ready for the big one today. He is up in the mark of course, but that says he is only a six year old with potentially more improvement left. He jumps well, travelling like a dream usually, a very uncomplicated horse with the right conditions today. Present View @ 7/1 Coral - 5pts win

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread 14.10 Cheltenham: Arkle Trophy Trial Novices' Chase (Grade 2) - Court Minstrel: Prolific course and distance winner. Won last month over CD. Tough assignment on weights and may struggle in soft ground conditions. - Little John: Got off the mark on chase debut last month, drawing away in closing stages despite some jumping errors. Will relish soft conditions and sure to improve. More required here though and trip probably on sharp side. - Vibrato Valtat: Progressive hurdler, strong chasing debut when winner on the bridle. Should be fine on soft ground and plenty of improvement potentially left in him. Trip may prove too sharp. - Duke Of Navan: Good winner on seasonal reappearance and chasing debut at Carlisle. Will love the ground and in receive of weight, should get further in time as well. - Dunraven Storm: Fine hurdler. Winner on chasing debut and sure to progress further. Concerns about soft ground, also debatable how much improvement is left in this 9yo. Verdict: I feel ground conditions may prove key to this contest. Little John should relish the conditions but his jumping looked shaky on his chase debut and the trip may well be too short for him. Vibrato Valtat was visually extremely impressive on his debut over fences. Question mark how much does he find once off the bridle. I suspect he'll be off the bridle at the Cheltenham hill and may struggle then giving weight away to progressive Duke Of Navan. A smart hurdler, not too far beaten in a Grade 2 here at Cheltenham behind Dodging Bullets should make an even better chaser and he won nicely on his chasing debut recently. He should be fine on the ground, and the fact that he receives weight all around makes him a key player. Duke Of Navan @ 7/2 Ladbrokes - 5pts win Edit: Selection should read Duke Of Navan!

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread 13.05 Punchestown: Novice Chase (grade 2) - Alelchi Inois: Smart French hurdler, took well to fences, landing two Grade 3’s recently. Unbeaten in last five, class act and probably very hard to beat. Slight negatives the ground and gives weight away. - Azorian: No chance against the The Tullow Tank a fortnight ago. Drops in trip which may rejuvenate him. - Chancol: Winner on debut over fences recently in Beginners chase. Much more required here but clearly talented and open to any kind of improvement. - Enjoy Responsibly: Point winner, off the mark under rules in 2.5m chase at Limerick. Couldn’t follow on in last two starts in graded company. - Sizing Granite: Won seasonal reappearance in Beginners Chase, beating Grade 1 winning Hurdler Lieutenant Colonel that day. Looks nice prospect and should be fine on soft ground. - Un Beau Roman: Progressive chaser who finished fine runner-up to Ted Vale in Grade 3 at Roscommon. Fell at Galway subsequently. Needs to improve and umping must be spot on to stand chance against favourite. Verdict: The Mullins trained Alelchi Inois is the obvious favourite here and he could well turn out to be a bit special. He is short enough though, given the fact that gives a good deal of weight away and it remains to be seen if conditions really suit him. They may well do, but I’m happy to look for alternatives. While Chancol looks talented and is sure to make a nice chaser, I feel he is short enough and a good deal of improvement already reflected in his price. This is not so much the case with Sizing Granite who is a very exciting horse, if one believes the words of his trainer. He did a very good job on his debut over fences, jumping well and showing a great attitude in the closing stages. He did beat a smart rival that day, so it is clearly a noteworthy form. He looks a chaser through and through and should improve a good deal from that run. With the weight he receives from the favourite, and the winter ground to suit, he may prove the biggest danger to the Mullins horse. Sizing Granite @ 5/1 Coral – 5pts win

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread 13.40 Punchestown: Novice Chase (grade 2) - Indevan: Progressive chaser, won three on the bounce. Grade 3 winner last month. Ground major worry. - Lots Of Memories: Smart hurdler, won Grade 3 and 3^rd at Punchestown in G1 Novice Hurdle. Fine chase debut, when close 2^nd at Cork. Jumped really well and big move halfway through. However mistakes at the last two and beaten by rival ridden with more restraint. Should improve and ground no issue. Step up in trip to suit. - Shanahan’s Turn: Nice debut over fences at this track. Jumped decent enough. Something to find on hurdle form with rivals and needs to prove stamina over new trip, but has good chance to do so. - Thunder And Roses: Good debut over fences, jumped well, albeit no chance with very smart winner. Should like the step up in trip and ground no problem. - Security Breach: Good winner at Listowel on second start over fences. Jumped well and drew clear in closing stages. This much more demanding but not out of it with further improvement. Has form on soft ground. - Very Wood: Very smart hurdler, won the G1 Albert Bartlett at the Festival. Took well to the fences without being overly impressive at Galway. This will tell us more. Obvious chance though. Verdict: I can see why Very Wood is popular in the market. He was the smartest hurdler of this lot and if he could run to that sort of level over fences, he'll be the one to beat. His chasing debut was fine enough, although nothing spectacular. This race will reveal a bit more of his future credentials. Looking for some value elsewhere, I find it hard to fancy each of the two Mullins runners for different reasons. Indevan has to prove that he is as equally on soft ground on this level as he is on better ground. And that is reason enough not to buy in his rather short price. In contrast Lots Of Memories looks overpriced to me. He was a smart hurdler, and took well to the fences, despite finishing only second on debut. But he jumped really well largely and should be able to improve a good deal from that run. The fact that the step up in trip should suit him allot as well as that he wont mind the ground, makes him a very interesting runner here. Lots Of Memories @ 5/1 Coral - 5pts win

[Smarty72]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread Great previews yet again! Going to have a crack at the same 3 novice chases! Good Luck with your selections.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread Cheers Smarty. I see in your thread we tend to disagree if it comes to selections, though. :D No bet in the race, but really looking forward to the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown today. If my car wouldn't strike, I'd be there to watch the titans in flesh. But still, a mouth watering clash and even if it looks increasingly unlikely that Hurricane Fly gets the better of an improving Jezki, I'll be cheering on the champ. Come on 'The Fly'! [ATTACH]6494[/ATTACH]

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread Can't pick my nose at the moment, but boy, The Fly is back! Fantastic to see him winning at Punchestown. It's a long season and the Champion Hurdle may be beyond him these days, but there might still be another big one in him, at Christmas probably! I thought when he was part of the "parade of legends" at Irish Champions Weekend, that his race days are numbered - thanks god they aren't! Got this shot of him back in September at the Curragh during the parade, when he looked as good as ever.

[Smarty72]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread Hope you do not mind me commenting but think your pre race analysis is spot on and you have a good approach to your betting. What I like is that you seem to be able to identify if a favourite has weaknesses or does not fully justify the price and are prepared to take it on with something else that you see as value. What I have found is that favourites do well in novice chases and you rarely get winners at 5\1 upwards in the conditions races. Usually the winner is in the 1st 3 of the betting (my thoughts may not be accurate). You actually identified that both favourites at Punchestown were both worth opposing, you were right, wrong final selection but on other days you will get this right and I will get this wrong! I am quite happy to back favourites, you maybe prefer to take them on, a different approach to betting but I am trying to curb my betting on the favourites and avoiding odds on favourites at the moment unless there is strong evidence to suggest that a short price looks justified. Keep it up I really value your race opinions and find them very useful. Think you will be fine in the long run and you will make this a successful thread.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread Thanks smarty, appreciate your kind words. I'll be trying to find my way with the jumps, so it's all learning, trial, test, fail and hopefully win at some point. Will rather tend to concentrate on the weekend racing in the future, which should tend to be the better class racing anyway and that probably suits me better than the random class 3 Novice Chase on a Monday I feel. I find it hard to get the measure right on those races, as well as to really distinguish the merit of the past performance, which is in quite stark contrast to say lower class flat racing, as I'm always been purely a man for the flat. However the better class jump races seems easier in that regard at least, so will try my 'luck' there now... 14.05 Ascot: Amlin 1965 Chase (Grade 2) - Al Ferof: Multiple graded winner and usually best fresh. Drop in trip probably a blessing in disguise, ground shouldn’t be a problem. Won this last season and if he can turn up in the same kind of form, in with big chance for obvious reasons. - Bury Parade: Will love any drop of rain.Tried further last two after winning hot Handicap over 22f. Drops significantly in trip which might not quite suit. - Fox Appeal: Trip and ground should suit well, dead heated at Kempton lto, but bit to find on this level. - Somersby: Disappointing on his seasonal reappearance. Obviously in with chance judged on best but combination of ground/trip is likely to find him out here. - Wishfull Thinking: Not getting any younger but remains prolific, scored at Aintree last month in fine fashion. Ground and trip fine. Big runner. - Rajdhani Express: Unseated lto. Never won over this trip but rain softened ground should slow things down, as well as stamina comes a bit more into play, which should help him. Verdict: Three standout horses in this six runner field with last years winner Al Ferof sure to have a big say if he is back to his best. His record fresh speaks for itself. Veteran Whisfull Thinking proved he is still a class act when winning the Old Roan Chase last month. Rajdhani Express unseated his rider that day but he is the kind of new kid on the block, still only the age of seven with potentially more to come and with his third in the Grade 1 Ryanair at the Festival as the standout form, he gets the nod as the biggest price of the three mentioned horses. Hard to fancy any of the other three. Rajdhani Express @ 4/1 Ladbrokes – 5pts win

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread 15.00 Ascot: Betfair Chase (Grade 1) - Cue Card: Won this last year on only try over this trip. Flat track does suit him and decent seasonal reappearance. Will have to improve good deal though from that - Double Ross: Multile Grade 3 winning chaser but trip a big issue. Never won over further than 2m 5f. - Dynaste: Classy Cheltenham winner. Does well fresh usually. Combination of ground + trip may be stretching him though. - Harry Tropper: Goes well fresh and the more rain the better. Probably a bit below Grade 1 standard though. - Medermit: Hasn’t won since 2011 and trip potentially too far for him on balance. - Menorah: Recent winner of the Charlie Hall at Weatherby. Repeat of that from will see him going close here, but not the most consistent one. - Silviniaco Conti: Disappointing seasonal reappearance. Loads of improvement needed. Usually the class act in this field nonetheless and if anywhere near his best, he’d be the one the beat. Cheekpieces on, an interesting move. - Taquin Du Seuil: Rapidly progressing over fences last season, was top class over hurdles already. Runner-up behind Menorah lto but perception is that the trip could be just stretching him too much. - The Giant Bolster: Usually comes alive at Cheltenham and extremely poor seasonal reappearance earlier this month. Verdict: The weather forecast is wet and that should ensure that we will have surly quite rain softened ground tomorrow which won't suit a couple too well. With the going however clearly to suit Harry Tropper a chance is taken on him, despite that he is probably a tick below Grade 1 standard. But ground and trip does suit perfectly and he must enter calculations seriously. He should outrun his price tag. Whether that is good enough to win is another question. I did like Cue Card's seasonal reappearance, but still haven't lost quite the perception that he is a dubious stayer, despite winning this race last year. Over this trip on heavy going (if we get it) he should be vulnerable. Taquin Du Seuil is a very popular horse and seems to be tipped by every man and his dog. I feel this trip will stretch him, despite his fine recent performance. But the Whetherby performance came on good ground, and he was still 4l beaten. Also taking the pedigree into account, I just can't see it, or at least don't want to invest in his current price, to see it. However disappointing Silviniaco Conti was on his seasonal reappearance, he remains the one to beat, if he is on song. He should improve for the run, and with cheekpieces sharpen him up hopefully, he should go really close, as the rain will suit and he stays the trip alright. The 4/1 seem generous, so I give him another chance. Silviniaco Conti @ 4/1 Ladbrokes - 5pts win Harry Tropper @ 11/1 Betfred - 5pts win

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread Huh... a winner! Conti did it nicely. Paid back the confidence in him. Cheekpices seemed to help him to stay focused in the closing stages, when he outstayed his rivals. Harry Tropper huge disappointment, and Rajdhani Express made too much from the front on heavy ground.