Jump Racing~ Saturday 2nd February

[beaker1]

Saturday 2nd February 2:40 Ffos Las – William Hill West Wales National This could prove to be a very interesting race and the presence of Junior has kept many out of the handicap. It will not be easy to carry a lot of weight though on testing ground, so it could very well be won by one of the runners at the bottom of the weights. MAKETHE MOSTOFNOW is four pounds out of the handicap, but is rated 11 pounds lower over fences than hurdles, so he could be well in. He was the winner of his only start in points, beating the subsequent grade one winning hurdler Lovcen on heavy ground. He made his chase debut at Ffos Las on soft ground and stayed on well to beat Keppols Hill and although he would have been second if the leader had not made a bad mistake at the last, it was a good effort. His last two starts have been disappointing, but they have been in graded company and this drop in class should suit. Considering he is four from four at Ffos Las, I am happy to take a chance on him, as he has a decent chance of making the frame at a good price. 3:35 Sandown – Betfred Masters Handicap Chase Conditions will be testing at Sandown, but one horse who should have no problems with it is KEPPOLS HILL. Progressive in point-to-points, winning his last five starts, he went straight over fences once joining the powerful Paul Nicholls team. A mistake at the last cost him victory on his chase debut and again a mistake at the last on his second start cost him, but he was much better last time, staying on strongly at Chepstow on heavy ground to win well. A mark of 135 is fair for his handicap debut and with Ruby Walsh in the saddle, he is expected to run a very well. It is a very competitive race though, as both Mister Hyde and Viking Blond have good chances and I have a feeling that whoever wins this race will be worth following in subsequent runs.

[BillyHills]

Re: jump racing 2nd febuary

2.05 Ffos Las: William Hill Welsh Champion Hurdle (Limited Handicap) (Class 2)(2m4f) Excellent renewal under the new conditions of the race and Ffos Las owner Dai Walters will expect a big run from Tanerko Emery, he’s a lot higher in the weights since his two victories and this has been his target ever since. Oscara Dara is a threat despite top weight; he won the Lanzarote in good style and is sure to be thereabouts. For a bit of value my two against the field are Medinas and Double Ross, both stay very well and act in the ground and represent fair value at double figure prices. Selections: 1pt EW Medinas 10/1

>Paddy Power

1pt EW Double Ross 10/1

Stan James

Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/ffos-las-betting-king-s-medinas-looks-value-in-welsh-champion-hurdle-at-ffos-las

[BillyHills]

Re: Jump Racing~ Saturday 2nd February

2.40 Ffos Las: William Hill West Wales National (handicap) (Class 2) (3m4f) The bottom seven horses are running out of the handicap which does give this handicap a lob sided look to it so it may pay to side with those higher up the card. I like Alfie Spinner and he seems to have everything in his favour here and deserves to win a race like this. The form of his Sandown race looks better now than it did at the time. As an alternative Summery Justice is not without hope for a yard bang in form and has not got many miles on the clock despite being a 9yo. Cannington Brook and Junior will be plugging on at the end but look plenty high enough in the weights. Selections: 2pts Alfie Spinner 9/2

Blue Square

1pt Summery Justice 8/1

>Bet365

Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/ffos-las-betting-alfie-spinner-to-give-williams-another-big-saturday-winner-at-ffos-las

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Jump Racing~ Saturday 2nd February Ffos Las 2.05 - Oscara Dara 7/2 Bet365 & Double Ross 10/1 Bet365 Oscara Dara was very impressive last time out int he Lanzarote and he should have won by much further. No doubt he has the class to win a race like this and it wouldnt surprise me if he makes it look like men against boys tomorrow but I will only have a small interest in him because I cant truly get a grip of his form. Double Ross has run three really good races on the bounce. His victory at Cheltenham has been franked by the runner up (won C2 – 136) and the 4^th has placed in a decent race (C2 – 126). He then ran only 6 days later at Haydock in a better race when only an error towards the end cost him a small chance of winning (still only beaten 6 ½ lengths) and that form looks solid. In his most recent run he was dropped back to 2miles and still ran a good race. The winner has gone in since and the 2^nd has been in great form. Overall I dont think he quite has the class to win this on merit but I am sure he will give the eventual winner a run for his money. If STD gets his fractions right he might be able to steal it and therefore I will only have another small interest. Ffos Las 2.40 – Red Rocco 5/1 Boylesports Red Rocco is certainly a horse on the up. His 2^nd to Highlond Lodge considering that one has since ran to RPR's of 149 since which definitely gives him some scope here. The form of his Newcastle win has worked out very nicely and he has to be of interest if he stays this trip. McCain reports that he 'stays well' and I wouldnt like to argue with a trainer that knows so much about that stlye of horse! Up in class but should enjoy the ground conditions. Sandown 150 – Nozic 6/1 Bet365 Nozic has run really well in his last few races being unlucky to bump into rivals each time. Gets the ground and trip, has form in this class of race and even as a 12yo he still looks on a handy mark. Sandown 3.00 – Plein Pouvoir 11/2 Betfred Plein Pouvoir needed the run first time out this season before finding the trip a little too far at Wincanton on his next run (winner previously only 7l behind Pete The Feat but disappointed since). He then ran really well at Cheltenham beating a potentially progressive rival ('bounced' since) and two horses who have done well in their next outings. Based on that run this trip with the uphill finish should really suit. The big negative is this horses run LTO where he never got going and providing that was a one off and he is none the worse for that. Sandown 4.40 – Shangani 9/4 Bet365 (No financial interest for me) Shangani ran well behind two promising sorts at Warwick. The 2^nd placed horse has won two and placed since (rated 140) and the winner was narrowly denied NTO (C3 hcap 127). That form gives him a huge shout in a race like this. He was then given a 3 month break before returning at Chepstow where he was slightly underwhelming perhaps suggesting the run might have been needed. The 2^nd has won off 126 in a C3 novice handicap since which again would give this one a chance with the hope of more to come. Wetherby 100 - Mubrook 8/1 Paddy Power & Beauboreen 16/1 BetVictor Mubrook ran well for his new connections LTO finishing 5lengths behind Brick Red (rated 125 – won previous race) and ahead of Dragons Den (only rated 108 but holding his own in competitive races). If he comes on for that run then he could be of interest here considering he is only up 1lb for that. His win ratio isnt great but that might change for this yard who seem to find improvement in every horse that comes to their yard. Beauboreen looks to have an excellent chance on his handicap debut. His first run was full of promise finishing only 3l behind a horse now rated 123 (RPR 129) and ahead of Mickie who won NTO (RPR 123) and ran a respectable race behind The New One at Warick beating the rest of the pack. He was again running a good race before finding the combination of trip & ground too testing LTO but even then he looked the biggest threat to the 120's rated winner (previously recorded RPR's in the 130's). He only faded once his stamina gave way but he must have a good chance back down in trip.

[Aidymac]

Re: Jump Racing~ Saturday 2nd February *Valley View > Sandown 4:40 > WIN @ 7/2 Bet365 BOG* JP McManus has two in this 7 runner race, but I fancy the outsider of the pair, trained by Jonjo O'Neill. Valley View has won over this trip and is now only 3 pounds higher than it's last success, which was off 115 at Chepstow in 2011 on heavy ground. Tomorrow is heavy, so we know it will go on the ground. It went off 2/1 and much better was expected last time out at Lingfield, but I will scrap that poor run, as it is an artificial surface and I would not take that form at face value. It has a 100% strike-rate over this trip, and it is a rather weak race, so if Jonjo has it ready, it could well win with ease if showing it's best foot.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Jump Racing~ Saturday 2nd February 2:05 Ffos Las: Boyfromnowhere 1pt win 18/1 Skybet & Tanerko Emery 1pt win 7/2 Bet365 The Boyfromnowhere is just out of the handicap here, and A P McCoy is on Oscara Dara, yet this lightly raced six year old may be a little underestimated. He ran well when Beating High Ho Sheriff here over three miles before Christmas. Boyfromnowhere then went to Cheltenham where he was well down the field in a Grade. With his first run in a handicap off a light weight Boyfromnowhere could outrun his price. Tanerko Henry continues to improve and he loves the prevailing going. Both his last two wins have come on heavy going and the ability to handle that will be paramount today. It looks likely that Tanerko Emery will be just as effective over this extra trip and he looks a big danger off a light weight with David Pipe's team in fine form. 2:40 Ffos Las: Makethemostofnow 1pt win 16/1 Boylesports Looking at Makethemostofnow's last run does not give a lot of hope as he was beaten over 100 lengths. However, its not difficult to forgive that and his previous outing as both of those efforts came in Graded company and today in a handicap for the first time he has what might prove a workable mark of 128. The eye catching statistic for Makethemostofnow is his record at the course, where he is four from four. There is good reason to hope that this son of St Leger winner Milan can be as least as effective over this longer trip and he looks well worth a go at the odds.

[BillyHills]

Re: Jump Racing~ Saturday 2nd February

1.50 Sandown: Betfred Handicap Chase (Class 2) (2m) Tough looking opener to the meeting with doubts about most of the runners, either the ground or lack of current form being the problem. Toubab will be popular for the Nicholls and Walsh combo and the race could well be run to suit him with one or two front runners in the field ensuring a strong pace, I just wonder whether he wants it this soft. I think the 12yo Nozic has a good a chance as any, the recent switch back to two miles has rejuvenated this old horse and his latest second is the best current form on offer. Eastlake goes on the ground and if he can reproduce his Ascot run he wont be far away and is an alternative. Selections: 2pts Nozic 6/1

Ladbrokes

1pt Eastlake 7/1

>Paddy Power

Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/sandown-betting-veteran-nozic-can-go-well-in-tricky-opener-at-sandown

[BillyHills]

Re: Jump Racing~ Saturday 2nd February

3.55 Wetherby: Play Totescoop6 At Totepool.com Handicap Chase (Class 2) (2m4f110y) Quite a competitive handicap and interesting with quite a few front running types, I don’t think anything will take on Fiendish Flame for the lead but it promises to be run at a quick pace despite the soft ground. A lot of exposed sorts also in this contest so the improving Dunowen Point could be the answer, he comes from the yard of Donald McCain so the price will be tight. Niceonefrankie would be interesting on better ground while the bottom weight Whats Up Woody could run well at a price. Selections; 2pts Dunowen Point 4/1

>Paddy Power

1pt Whats Up Woody 12/1

>Bet365

Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/wetherby-betting-mccains-improving-dunowen-point-can-land-feature-handicap-at-wetherby

[mowgli77]

Re: Jump Racing~ Saturday 2nd February Wetherby 3.20pm Super Duty will be well fancied here but I have some concerns over the ground and trip and feel the Pipe horse is unexposed and certainly of interest. A decent race where many will be outclassed. The Pipe runner is 66-1 for the RSA if they decide to go that route. Full preview below: http://www.punterslounge.com/wetherby-betting-goulanes-to-get-off-to-a-winning-start-over-fences Selections: 2pts WIN – Goulanes 3-1 Betfred (BOG) 0.5pt WIN – Restless Harry 14-1 Ladbrokes

[mowgli77]

Re: Jump Racing~ Saturday 2nd February Sandown 3.35pm Mister Hyde could get the better of Keppols Hill here and looks the more fluent of the 2 from what I've seen so far (famous last words) but I'd have been more confident with a different jockey on (preferably McCoy) as McLernon is 0 from 8 on the horse. Brackloon High won last time out and could still improve again. Full preview below: http://www.punterslounge.com/sandown-betting-progressive-mister-hyde-can-deny-keppols-hill-in-stayers-chase Selections: 2pts WIN – Mister Hyde 9-2 BetVictor (BOG) 1pt WIN – Brackloon High 8-1 William Hill (BOG)

[mowgli77]

Re: Jump Racing~ Saturday 2nd February Sandown 2.25pm Captain Conan can take this race and then follow up by winning the Jewson Novices Chase at the festival. It has class in abundance, jumps well and is a huge imposing sort that I rate highly. Changing Times is probably the next best. Full preview below: http://www.punterslounge.com/sandown-betting-captain-conan-to-make-it-3-from-3-over-fences Selections: 3pts WIN – Captain Conan 1-2 William Hill (BOG) 2pts WIN – Captain Conan – Jewson Novices Chase – 4-1 Bet365 (Ante Post)

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Jump Racing~ Saturday 2nd February Wetherby 2.45 – War On 6/1 Boylesports There are a lot of unexposed horses in this race which means picking a winner could be difficult. Farmer Matt & Tweedledrum are clearly interesting runners but I wouldnt be surprised if they finally got found out by their most recent rise in the weights. Therefore I will side with War On who has a fair mark based on his performances so far but there is a lot to suggest he will improve a lot for this step up in trip (outpaced LTO before staying on, back on bridle just before the last and then powered clear) and with a top jockey on board he has to be a threat. Up in class, ground fine.

[bowles10]

Re: Jump Racing~ Saturday 2nd February 2.05 Ffos Las Decided to play on Hollow Tree today although i think it could win one of the decent hurdle handicaps at Cheltenham, i hope they also have a go today. HOLLOW TREE One of my eyecatchers for this season with a decent showing LTO and i feel this one could be aimed at Cheltenham decent hurdle handicap either Pertemps or Coral Cup. EW today 16/1 Stan James 1pt ew

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump Racing~ Saturday 2nd February Shorter posts today as short notice. 1.50 Sandown - 1pt win King Edmund @ 12/1 (Bet365) You can question his form but largely has run okay this season and had excuses last time when setting off quickly before coming back to the field and ending up in 5th of 6. He wasn't beaten a million miles considering (11l) and he has the potential to get a fairly easy lead today as there are no other confirmed front-runners in the field (are a couple who like to be up there, however). Prior to that run he was 2nd after a break to a thriving animal (couldn't get past that one for the lead early on) and was a sound 5th in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham last season. I think there are concerns for a few of these so the price appeals to me giving the ground is fine and this one goes best right-handed. 2.05 Ffos Las - 1.5pts e/w Medinas @ 10/1 (Bet365) A rare e/w bet as it could be one of the top two in the market remain well-handicapped and in that event we could be playing for place money. I'd rather be on nothing than the Alan King-trained horse to get into the frame though and could still have the measure of the market leaders as he seems to be improving also. He's admirably consistent and has rock solid form. He's only run one bad race at Cheltenham (something presumably amiss) and this season was a good 2nd at that venue behind a thriving horse in a 22-runner handicap and again ran a similar race at Kempton to fill that position two starts back. I feel that this track will suit better than that and he clearly revels in soft ground. Found 3m on heavy at Cheltenham a little too testing last time but it was a good race and he held every chance between the last two flights. At Fishers Cross has subequently franked the form and I think King's charge will go very well once more this afternoon.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump Racing~ Saturday 2nd February 2.40 Ffos Las - 3pts win Red Rocco @ 3/1 (Bet365) Although Donald McCain's runner is a novice going into a battle with hardened campaigners, this race looks made for him and I really think he's going to take the spoils. For all his status is as an inexperienced chaser, he's pretty solid at his fences and stays very well. He hasn't had too hard a races of late, staying on powerfully from the front in small novice fields but looked an out-and-out stayer at Newcastle and Kelso - finding plenty up the run-in. The fact he's won with a bit in hand over 3 miles on heavy around Newcastle proves stamina is his game and the step up in trip here looks like it'll do nothing but help. He's not an extremely quick type but will keep grinding it out and he's well worth his place towards the head of the market. Alfie Spinner should enjoy conditions but disappointed last time and Cannington Brook will have to go again after a hard win last time out (saves best for Haydock).

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump Racing~ Saturday 2nd February 3.35 Sandown - 1pt win Viking Blond @ 9/1 (Bet365) The fear with this horse is that he appears to bomb out after a few good runs at the start of a season and he was pulled up last time out. However, he ran well for a long way in the Welsh National and didn't get to dominate that race either. He has a better hope of getting to the front today and if repeating his effort at Cheltenham two starts back he's in with a huge shout. He ran a stormer to hold every chance from the front and even rallied once headed but finished a good 3rd in the end (form franked by Monbeg Dude). He runs off the same mark today (albeit with capable 3lb claimer on board) and his usually sound jumping should stand him in good stead around this track. If he gets into a rhythm from the front then he could prove tough to pass given he enjoys the ground and stays further.

[smith17]

Re: Jump Racing~ Saturday 2nd February 13.50 Sandown: Eastlake, 11/2 Bet365, win Eastlake ran well lto to finish second off today's mark on soft ground over today's distance. Before that he won on heavy ground at Ascot and if he performs like he did that day he should go close today. Trainer Jonjo O'Neill had two winners from three runners yesterday. Richie McLernon, who has won on this horse in the past, is in decent form. 14.05 Ffos Las: Double Ross, 10/1 >Bet365, win Double Ross ran a cracker lto to finish fourth in the Ladbroke. The step back up in trip will suit as some of his better runs have been around today's distance, including a very convincing win over 21f at Cheltenham last November. The ground should suit and he is a pound lower then his last run. He is a frontrunner and he could get an easy lead today. Nigel Twiston-Davies is in decent form and his son, Sam, is in the saddle.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Jump Racing~ Saturday 2nd February

Sandown 150 – Nozic 6/1 Bet365 Nozic has run really well in his last few races being unlucky to bump into rivals each time. Gets the ground and trip, has form in this class of race and even as a 12yo he still looks on a handy mark.

Swapped this one for Eastlake at the last minute and he hosed up. Great ride by Ritchie McLernon as he got the fractions right from the front and bar one small mistake at the 2nd last his jumping was superb. Really impressive.

[smith17]

Re: Jump Racing~ Saturday 2nd February 14.40 Ffos Las: Shaking Hands, 6/1 Stan James, win Shaking Hands has won his last two races. Lto he was impressive as he won by 13L on heavy ground over three miles on this track. Before that he won again on heavy ground over three miles. Second place that day, Chac Du Cadran, won nto when upped in class. SH is four pounds outside the handicap and this is a step up in class for SH but with the ground to suit and proven stamina he should go close. Trainer David Pipe has a decent record here with a 17% SR and he is in good form. Jockey Conor O'Farrell is also in good form and he has a decent record when riding for Pipe. 14.45 Wetherby: Sammys Gone, 5/1 Stan James, win Sammys Gone is making his handicap debut today. He has been giving a mark of 132 by the handicapper which he should be competitive off. Lto he was beaten by a neck by the Paul Nicholls trained Benvolio, who was six pounds lower then my selection, eleven if taking jockey claims into it. He raced quite keenly but that was just his fourth race, second over hurdles, so if Richard Johnson can get him settled he should improve a bit on that run. Before that he won very impressively in his first start over hurdles and his first start for Philip Hobbs when he won by 18L on heavy ground. He is upped in trip by three furlongs to 25f but it should suit as he is closely related to a few winners over similar distances, including grade 1 winner Joe Lively.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Jump Racing~ Saturday 2nd February

Ffos Las 2.05 - Oscara Dara 7/2 Bet365 & Double Ross 10/1 Bet365 Oscara Dara was very impressive last time out int he Lanzarote and he should have won by much further. No doubt he has the class to win a race like this and it wouldnt surprise me if he makes it look like men against boys tomorrow but I will only have a small interest in him because I cant truly get a grip of his form. Double Ross has run three really good races on the bounce. His victory at Cheltenham has been franked by the runner up (won C2 – 136) and the 4^th has placed in a decent race (C2 – 126). He then ran only 6 days later at Haydock in a better race when only an error towards the end cost him a small chance of winning (still only beaten 6 ½ lengths) and that form looks solid. In his most recent run he was dropped back to 2miles and still ran a good race. The winner has gone in since and the 2^nd has been in great form. Overall I dont think he quite has the class to win this on merit but I am sure he will give the eventual winner a run for his money. If STD gets his fractions right he might be able to steal it and therefore I will only have another small interest. Ffos Las 2.40 – Red Rocco 5/1 Boylesports Red Rocco is certainly a horse on the up. His 2^nd to Highlond Lodge considering that one has since ran to RPR's of 149 since which definitely gives him some scope here. The form of his Newcastle win has worked out very nicely and he has to be of interest if he stays this trip. McCain reports that he 'stays well' and I wouldnt like to argue with a trainer that knows so much about that stlye of horse! Up in class but should enjoy the ground conditions. Sandown 150 – Nozic 6/1 Bet365 Nozic has run really well in his last few races being unlucky to bump into rivals each time. Gets the ground and trip, has form in this class of race and even as a 12yo he still looks on a handy mark. Sandown 3.00 – Plein Pouvoir 11/2 Betfred Plein Pouvoir needed the run first time out this season before finding the trip a little too far at Wincanton on his next run (winner previously only 7l behind Pete The Feat but disappointed since). He then ran really well at Cheltenham beating a potentially progressive rival ('bounced' since) and two horses who have done well in their next outings. Based on that run this trip with the uphill finish should really suit. The big negative is this horses run LTO where he never got going and providing that was a one off and he is none the worse for that. Sandown 4.40 – Shangani 9/4 Bet365 (No financial interest for me) Shangani ran well behind two promising sorts at Warwick. The 2^nd placed horse has won two and placed since (rated 140) and the winner was narrowly denied NTO (C3 hcap 127). That form gives him a huge shout in a race like this. He was then given a 3 month break before returning at Chepstow where he was slightly underwhelming perhaps suggesting the run might have been needed. The 2^nd has won off 126 in a C3 novice handicap since which again would give this one a chance with the hope of more to come. Wetherby 100 - Mubrook 8/1 Paddy Power & Beauboreen 16/1 BetVictor Mubrook ran well for his new connections LTO finishing 5lengths behind Brick Red (rated 125 – won previous race) and ahead of Dragons Den (only rated 108 but holding his own in competitive races). If he comes on for that run then he could be of interest here considering he is only up 1lb for that. His win ratio isnt great but that might change for this yard who seem to find improvement in every horse that comes to their yard. Beauboreen looks to have an excellent chance on his handicap debut. His first run was full of promise finishing only 3l behind a horse now rated 123 (RPR 129) and ahead of Mickie who won NTO (RPR 123) and ran a respectable race behind The New One at Warick beating the rest of the pack. He was again running a good race before finding the combination of trip & ground too testing LTO but even then he looked the biggest threat to the 120's rated winner (previously recorded RPR's in the 130's). He only faded once his stamina gave way but he must have a good chance back down in trip.

Really poor from me today, a lot of them I should never have touched. Not in the greatest nick chasing winners a little too much when I wasn't confident enough.

[bowles10]

Re: Jump Racing~ Saturday 2nd February well done guys on Eastlake and Medinas 2 nice winners there