Bathtime For Rupert Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup Wonder who'll ride SDS. I'm free and am game. 2 stone overweight shouldn't be a problem? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup The last 13 Gold Cup winners had already won at Grade 1 level so any of The Giant Bolster, Cape Tribulation, Sunnyhillboy or Monbeg Dude would be an unusual winner if successful. On the face of it, the fact that ten of the last 21 winners were second-season chasers is notable but it does not slap you hard in the face. That said, they are usually heavily outnumbered so it reads better than first implies and they have a very strong hands this season with the first three in the betting Bobs Worth, Sir Des Champs and Silviniaco Conti as well as Bog Warrior (if he runs here rather than the World Hurdle) and Monbeg Dud. If any of those three big second-season novices do win, unless there is a move for Long Run, that would mean 13 consecutive Gold Cup winners will have started in the first three in the betting. As many as 44 years have now passed since the Gold Cup winner was aged older than ten which is a big negative for Sunnyhillboy. In fact, in the 13 runnings since the 1998 Gold Cup, all 62 horses aged 10+ have been beaten which included 14 horses sent off at 10/1 or lower and four outright favourites. Cheltenham is not a straightforward test and finding a rhythm, especially over fences, is paramount. Therefore I do feel there is some course-specialist element that we would be foolish to ignore. Nine of the last 12 winners had won or finished second at the Festival before and the big non-qualifier on that count is Silviniaco Conti who has deliberately been kept away from Cheltenham over fences. Others that have not finished in the first two at the Festival before are Bog Warrior (never run at Cheltenham), Monbeg Dude (not run at the Festival before) and Wayward Prince (though only beaten a length into third in the RSA Chase). Without question the King George VI Chase has been the outstanding guide to the Gold Cup with nine of the last 13 Gold Cup winners taking their chance. Long Run became the fifth horse to complete the King George-Gold Cup double two seasons ago in the space of just nine years and he will be bidding to do likewise again after he fought back to deny Captain Chris by a neck with The Giant Bolster never going a yard (pulled up) on his first run on a right handed track in a long while so I would ignore his effort. See More Business and Imperial Commander have run shckers in the King George only to win the Gold Cup later in the season. Ireland’s best guide has been the Lexus Chase featuring four of the last eight winners. This season’s renewal was a real spectacle with less than a length covering Tidal Bay, First Lieutenant, Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs and the latter would probably have won had he jumped two out properly. The Betfair Chase has been a good guide in its few years of existence with three winners and the 1-2-3 of Silviniaco Conti, Long Run and The Giant Bolster lock horns again. Eight of the last 11 winners did not run during the same calendar year but we have to go back 22 years since a Gold Cup winner had been off the course for any further back than Boxing Day which is not in Bobs Worth’s favour. The requirement to be on an in-form horse is important with 11 of the last 12 finishing either first or second last time out which is against Monbeg Dude, Sunnyhillboy and Wayward Prince and, with regards to winning form earlier in the season, 12 of the last 17 winners had at least a 50% success rate which is not the case for The Giant Bolster, Sir Des Champs, Captain, Chris, Sunnyhillboy or Wayward Prince. Since Mr Mulligan won off the back of seasonal form figures of 4F in 1997, only Imperial Commander has failed to win earlier in his Gold Cup-winning campaign which is what Sunnyhillboy, The Giant Bolster and Wayward Prince are trying to achieve. Of the last 12 winners only War Of Attrition failed to enter the race with a rating off at least 166. The non-qualifiers in this cont are Bog Warrior (153), Cape Tribulation (165), Monbeg Dude (138), Sir Des Champs (162), Sunnyhillboy (152), The Giant Bolster (164) and Wayward Prince (147). Front runners have a one-in-five strike rate over the last three decades (though there is no obvious front runner this time if Bog Warrior doesn’t run). Maybe Long Run in first-time cheekpieces? Paul Nicholls has trained four winners and if Silviniaco Conti wins Nicholls will be the first trainer in history to win the Gold Cup with four different horses. Short List Sir Des Champs Long Run Captain Chris Conclusion You can find negative trends for all horses so it is case of how you interpret which are most important. I am struggling to have Bobs Worth as a trends-based horse arriving here off just one run this season and not having run since before Christmas as we have to go back to 1991 to find the last winner just one run and I can’t recall a winner not to have had its last race as far back at December 1st. I think that is important. Silviniaco Conti’s lack of Cheltenham form means he is also tough to include so if one of the first three in the betting is to win for the thirteenth straight year I feel it is SIR DES CHAMPS from the red-hot Willie Mullins stable. He ran in the Lexus Chase which has featured four of the last eight and is 2-2 for at the Cheltenham Festival and promises to improve again for another step up in trip so the only negative is he is not rated 166+ but neither was Gigginstown Stud’s other Gold Cup winner, War Of Attrition, who like Sir Des Champs was brought around steadily. Being the King George winner, LONG RUN has to make the short list given their excellent conversion rate in the Gold Cup of late with five winners in nine years. He also contested the Betfair Chase like thee recent winners, has placed at worst in all three runs at the Cheltenham Festival (in fact he has never been out of the first three in his 24-race career and he could front run in first-time cheekpieces and front runners win the Gold Cup more often than they are entitled to. Having finished second in the King George and won at the Festival before then CAPTAIN CHRIS is worth the final short list berth. The ground is also coming in his favour and he is only one of four horses that are rated 166+ like 11 of the last 12 winners. I think he is the forgotten horse of the race and represents good each-way at a double figure price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup A cracking renewal of the Gold Cup, the ground has come right for the Sir Des Champs followers and must go close, I do question his jumping sometimes and wont be able to make any silly errors in this company. For that reason I have to go with Bobs Worth, he hasn’t put a foot wrong since he went chasing and you cant ignore his course form which counts for so much. I fancy Long Run will be bang there once more and Captain Chris could be a danger at a fair price. Selections: 2pts Bobs Worth 11/4 >Paddy Power 1pt Captain Chris 14/1 CoralFull Preview; https://www.punterslounge.com/cheltenham-festival/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup Bobs worth is the knew kid on the block...His henneasey run is of DENMAN proportions..IF NOT BETTER. This trainer can get championship horses ready of zero runs..see you then The king is dead.....LONG LIVE THE KING...None of them will live with him up the hill.. Bobs worth by over 5 lens... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup Still cant make my mind up on this one. Long Run has the most consistent form and will run his race. Silvi Conti probably has the best form of all the runners this year BUT he doesnt have a great record on undulating courses or stiff finishes which is a worry. Sir Des Champs has been improving with each run and Mullins is on fire. Loves it here and his chances improve with the less rain we get. Bobs Worth was brilliant in the Hennessy and the form has worked out well. The RSA form hasnt worked out badly either. I think he has the most potential of them all and like SDC he loves it here. I still think the price is a little too short for my liking. SILV CONTI..You forgot to put Ruby aint rode a chase winner since god was a lad round here..and the stable is donaled ducked in form parley!..Just about the best lay you will ever see.. Plus as you rightley say..over rated,,Flat Track horse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup 3.20 Cheltenham - 3pts win Sir Des Champs @ 4/1 (Bet365) I've been waiting for this day for quite a long time having fancied this horse for Gold Cup glory after he won the Jewson last year. He was very impressive that day and looks to be even better upped in trip. He's stormed up the hill here twice when also winning the Martin Pipe in 2011 from a ridiculous position and course form is obviously a big advantage. I also really like Bobs Worth who also has a cracking record here but I'm very concerned about his absence for all connections would tell you not to be. Horses often struggle at the festival when not having raced in the calendar year and that swings things in the favour of Sir Des Champs. Obviously he wouldn't want a lot of rain but he's not exactly a mug on soft ground and would still hold every chance. He seems to be getting better with every run this season and will surely be ripe for this. He suffered for fitness, ground and trip when beaten by the very good Flemenstar over 2m4f on his return and then I think he was the horse to take out of the Lexus. He never jumped but showed what an engine he has by storming home and finishing just 3/4l behind in fourth. He's much better than that and it was an altogether better performance last time when getting revenge on Flemenstar over a more favourable trip. He's fit, trained by a man in red hot form, has the champion jockey on board and so long as his jumping holds up should be finishing to good effect. It is an open race but I've liked this one all along and can't desert him now - has a very good chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup Gold Cup – Bobs Worth 5pts win @ 3/1 Bet365 He is quickly becoming one of my favourite horses over jumps and I would expect him to be very tough to beat in this. He is unbeaten at Cheltenham in 4 runs at the track with 2 of them coming at the 2 previous festivals. He is unbeaten going left handed and the form of his latest win was franked with Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant. The absence since December is the only slight worry for this horse but connections clearly feel he is best when fresh as he proved when winning the Hennessey Gold Cup at Newbury. This is a max bet for me today and we might actually get a better price come the off as I am sure people will latch on to the fact McCoy is now riding Sir Des Champs. I just can’t see past a Bob’s Worth win today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup Poor lad Bryan Cooper should have got the ride on Sir Des Champs, might have just given him a chance to be top festival jockey but McCoy is on it now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup The likes of Bob's Worth and SDS will not want much more rain. Starting to fear the worst Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup Bobs worth is the knew kid on the block...His henneasey run is of DENMAN proportions..IF NOT BETTER. This trainer can get championship horses ready of zero runs..see you then The king is dead.....LONG LIVE THE KING...None of them will live with him up the hill.. Bobs worth by over 5 lens... LONG LIVE THE KING.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
egg Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup booooooom gets me £1 lucky 15s off over the week and A £5 trixie today with Fishers Cross 11/4, our connor 4/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup What a machine he is... If he stays sound then I can't see anything beating him in this race for at least a couple of years. He seems to be his quickest at the business end of the race. Unbelievable horse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing Bailey Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup Unbelieveable horse... Just different class. So happy for NJH as you see how much it means to him. Cracking ride from Barry too, knows the horse inside out and it shows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
egg Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup for a brief moment I thought he was in trouble, some beast. aslo good to see Rubi and Silvo get up unscatheed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheerluck Holmes Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup Had a crackig day at the Gold Cup, and thought any who backed him might like to see Bobs Worth after the race. :) [ATTACH]4463[/ATTACH] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup I remember watching it on the tele and thinking that guy that looks after him is an absolute man mountain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.