RIO2014 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Topaz Novice Chase (Grade 1) 2.25 LEOP BACK IN FOCUS. 3 miles in soft heavy ground, going left handed, is just about ideal. No doubt a chaser to follow over 3m plus however, he is a fair bit better given the underfoot conditions, there is nothing in this race for me to worry about. I will go out with a bang here as one of my last bets on horse racing. I fully expect him to be close to evens come race time. 6/4 williamhill, boyles,365. 100 points win. gl all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Re: Jump Racing 28th December 2012 3.00 Leopardstown Pandorama 0.5pt EW @ 25/1 StanJames Probably playing for a place here as I expect either Flemenstar or Sir Des Champs to win this but Pandorama is an interesting entrant in this race. He won the race back in 2010 very easily and followed that with a 7th in the Gold Cup. He injured himself in that race and hasn’t been seen since. It’s obviously a near impossible task for this horse after a 651-day absence but I feel there is reason to think he could run a big race. He has had 12 career starts, winning 9 times and finishing unplaced twice. Both of those efforts have come when travelling over to England and encountering quicker ground. I am happy to excuse both of those runs, as he is clearly happier in testing ground in his home country. He is 3 from 3 at Leopardstown and has successfully returned from a long absence twice in his career already. This is a stronger running of the race than when he won it 2 years ago but I find it interesting that connections are letting him take his chance here. They must have him in decent nick at home and I think at the odds he is worth a small interest. 2.25 Leopardstown Aupcharlie 1pt EW @ 9/1 William Hill Willie Mullins holds a strong hand here with Back In Focus and Aupcharlie and it may be worth taking a chance on his 2nd string at the current prices. He was a decent bumper horse, finishing 3rd in the Cheltenham bumper and didn’t really go on over hurdles getting beat twice at odds on. He only had 3 runs over hurdles before connections decided to send him over fences. It’s no surprise to me that he won his start over hurdles stepped up to 20f and then routed a decent enough field on his first start over fences over the same distance. That was his first start for 301 days and he won very comfortably looking better the further he went. He looked a natural over fences and I would expect him to come on plenty for that run. For me the key with this horse is stamina and I think he will relish the step up to 3m here. From his breeding you would expect this horse to improve for the step up in trip. The ground won’t be too testing tomorrow which is a positive as he goes just as well on good ground. It’s a big ask on his 2nd start over fences, against proven horses proven at graded level already but I think he could potentially be very good. Back in Focus is rightfully the favourite but at 6/4 I would rather take a chance with his stable mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Re: Jump Racing 28th December 2012 1.25 Leopardstown: Woodiesdiy.com Christmas Hurdle (Grade 2) (3m) Excellent renewal and it all revolves around Zaidpour, the Willie Mullins trained 6yo looks rock solid in this company and should be able to give the weight away to his nine rivals. He is a very short price but is a dual Grade 1 winner and I’d be surprised if he can’t take this and then aim for a crack at the World Hurdle at Cheltenham in March. He’s 12/1 for that race with Ladbrokes and that wont last long if he delivers here. Monksland is the obvious danger over this trip but it wouldn’t totally surprise me to see the mare Voler La Vedette chase home the favourite and fill the forecast spot. Selections: 4pts Zaidpour 11/8 >Paddy Power 1pt Exacta Zaidpour & Voler La Vedette Totesport Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/leopardstown-betting-mullins-and-walsh-to-strike-with-zaidpour-in-christmas-hurdle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonshell Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Re: Jump Racing 28th December 2012 12:25 Leopardstown MALA BEACH never showed much until switching stables and joining Gordon Elliott. 3rd last time out in a hot contest where Ned Buntline 2nd and 4th courtly conduct have won easily over Christmas. improvement should be expected now mala beach is settled in to his new yard. Best Price 3/1 General Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonshell Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Re: Jump Racing 28th December 2012 2:25 Leopardstown DEDIGOUT was beaten last time out to the promising arvika ligeonniere. It wasn't a bad effort considering arvika ligeonniere won a nice pot over Christmas. dedigout is expected to improve further with this step up to 3m on a soft surface. He won a Grade 1 contest over hurdles last year and he has always promised to be better over fences. Best Price 7/2 stanjames, William Hills. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Re: Jump Racing 28th December 2012 2:25 Leopardstown – Topaz Novice Chase BACK IN FOCUS has been superb on both starts so far this season, jumping really well and galloping all the way to the line. He handles soft ground as well as any horse and I can see him galloping the opposition into the ground and maintaining his unbeaten record over fences. Last time out he faced a useful opponent in Lyreen Legend, but when stamina came into play, he was able to pull clear, having looked set for a serious fight at one stage. The extra distance of this race should play to his strengths and he is my banker of the Christmas period. 3:00 Leopardstown – Lexus Chase There is a cracking renewal to this race and many will fancy their chances. Flemenstar has looked awesome so far over two and a half miles and the big question is will he be so effective over three miles, if he is, then he deserves to be favourite, but there is a doubt and at odds of 7/4, he looks too short. Sir Des Champs and Hidden Cyclone should both run well and it could be close between the pair. They met once last season with Sir Des Champs coming out on top, but Hidden Cyclone was not 100% that day, so could gain revenge. Connections think the world of him and the ground will be perfect, so I certainly expect him to run well. At the prices though, I will go for TIDAL BAY. Paul Nicholls has a very good record when sending horses over for the top Irish races and I can sense that he is very confident that Tidal Bay will run a massive race. He loves heavy ground and his run in the Hennessy when conceding weight to Bobs Worth was a classy effort, so he enters the race in top form. It is also interesting to hear Paul Nicholls say that he has discovered the way to train him and that is shown by his last two runs, which were both top class. At odds of 5/1 I think he represents value as I am not sure how many of his opponents would have run so well in the Hennessy off a mark of 166 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Re: Jump Racing 28th December 2012 *I Can Run Can You > Leicester 2:10 > WIN @ 15/2 Betred BOG* If this horse cannot figure off a mark of 88, there is something very wrong. It won off marks of 95 and 100 only last year, and it's form has plummeted since then. However, it is off a really low mark today, has had a short break, is with a stable known for getting horse's well handicapped to win, and is stepping back in trip from the norm, as it normally runs over much further. Jonjo yard going well, and looks overpriced in a small field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Re: Jump Racing 28th December 2012 12.50 Catterick - 1pt win Topo Gigio @ 10/1 (Bet365) Very interesting that the market is speaking somewhat in this horse's favour today given positive signals seem important if this one was going to run a big race. He's only a modest type but ran some okay races a couple of years ago and consistently seemed to shape as if he wanted the bare minimum trip over hurdles. He fell over fences on his first start for 2 years back in October so would still have needed the run when going okay at Carlisle last time over 2m4f. He travelled okay before fading but that trip at that track on that ground is plausibly too testing anyway. Should strip fitter now and has had a couple of months to freshen up. He drops back down to two miles here and has been dropped 9lbs in the handicap. This is a very weak race and I reckon he can go well with conditions apparently in his favour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Re: Jump Racing 28th December 2012 1.25 Leopardstown - 2pts win Monksland @ 4/1 (Bet365) Although Zaidpour got the better of Noel Meade's charge last time out I think there is sufficient reasoning to believe the form can be turned around this afternoon. That was over 2m4f at Fairyhouse and although the winner has been successful at three miles, I firmly believe Monksland to be a better horse with his stamina tested further. He goes very well on deep ground and proved at Cheltenham that he has a good deal of stamina when staying on well (without threatening) over 2m5f whilst finding the ground on the lively side. His dam had form over three miles and the way he ran at Fairyhouse suggested the race was run more to suit the possibly speedier Willie Mullins horse. My selection was under pressure before that one but kept on really well under pressure in a race where they didn't go much pace. It was a small field with little pressure on the front end and that looks different today. There are quite a few horses who like to go forward and a stronger test looks to suit the Meade horse so with this considered, and a 2lb swing in the weights, I reckon the form can be overturned. I do respect the fact that Zaidpour was having his first run of the season there but it's worth noting that his two previous runs when coming back off an absence saw him win by 12l and 8l so it's not as if he's usually very rusty so may not improve a huge amount for the run. So long as they go a decent gallop I think I'd rather be on the Meade horse at the prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIO2014 Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Re: Jump Racing 28th December 2012 1.25 Leopardstown - 2pts win Monksland @ 4/1 (Bet365) Although Zaidpour got the better of Noel Meade's charge last time out I think there is sufficient reasoning to believe the form can be turned around this afternoon. That was over 2m4f at Fairyhouse and although the winner has been successful at three miles, I firmly believe Monksland to be a better horse with his stamina tested further. He goes very well on deep ground and proved at Cheltenham that he has a good deal of stamina when staying on well (without threatening) over 2m5f whilst finding the ground on the lively side. His dam had form over three miles and the way he ran at Fairyhouse suggested the race was run more to suit the possibly speedier Willie Mullins horse. My selection was under pressure before that one but kept on really well under pressure in a race where they didn't go much pace. It was a small field with little pressure on the front end and that looks different today. There are quite a few horses who like to go forward and a stronger test looks to suit the Meade horse so with this considered, and a 2lb swing in the weights, I reckon the form can be overturned. I do respect the fact that Zaidpour was having his first run of the season there but it's worth noting that his two previous runs when coming back off an absence saw him win by 12l and 8l so it's not as if he's usually very rusty so may not improve a huge amount for the run. So long as they go a decent gallop I think I'd rather be on the Meade horse at the prices. N1 well done Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Re: Jump Racing 28th December 2012 2:25 Leopardstown – Topaz Novice Chase BACK IN FOCUS has been superb on both starts so far this season, jumping really well and galloping all the way to the line. He handles soft ground as well as any horse and I can see him galloping the opposition into the ground and maintaining his unbeaten record over fences. Last time out he faced a useful opponent in Lyreen Legend, but when stamina came into play, he was able to pull clear, having looked set for a serious fight at one stage. The extra distance of this race should play to his strengths and he is my banker of the Christmas period. 3:00 Leopardstown – Lexus Chase There is a cracking renewal to this race and many will fancy their chances. Flemenstar has looked awesome so far over two and a half miles and the big question is will he be so effective over three miles, if he is, then he deserves to be favourite, but there is a doubt and at odds of 7/4, he looks too short. Sir Des Champs and Hidden Cyclone should both run well and it could be close between the pair. They met once last season with Sir Des Champs coming out on top, but Hidden Cyclone was not 100% that day, so could gain revenge. Connections think the world of him and the ground will be perfect, so I certainly expect him to run well. At the prices though, I will go for TIDAL BAY. Paul Nicholls has a very good record when sending horses over for the top Irish races and I can sense that he is very confident that Tidal Bay will run a massive race. He loves heavy ground and his run in the Hennessy when conceding weight to Bobs Worth was a classy effort, so he enters the race in top form. It is also interesting to hear Paul Nicholls say that he has discovered the way to train him and that is shown by his last two runs, which were both top class. At odds of 5/1 I think he represents value as I am not sure how many of his opponents would have run so well in the Hennessy off a mark of 166 get in double landed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIO2014 Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Re: Jump Racing 28th December 2012 get in double landed Great call wd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavlar17 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Re: Jump Racing 28th December 2012 Well done folks, few cracking winners in here :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing Bailey Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Re: Jump Racing 28th December 2012 2:25 Leopardstown – Topaz Novice Chase BACK IN FOCUS has been superb on both starts so far this season, jumping really well and galloping all the way to the line. He handles soft ground as well as any horse and I can see him galloping the opposition into the ground and maintaining his unbeaten record over fences. Last time out he faced a useful opponent in Lyreen Legend, but when stamina came into play, he was able to pull clear, having looked set for a serious fight at one stage. The extra distance of this race should play to his strengths and he is my banker of the Christmas period. 3:00 Leopardstown – Lexus Chase There is a cracking renewal to this race and many will fancy their chances. Flemenstar has looked awesome so far over two and a half miles and the big question is will he be so effective over three miles, if he is, then he deserves to be favourite, but there is a doubt and at odds of 7/4, he looks too short. Sir Des Champs and Hidden Cyclone should both run well and it could be close between the pair. They met once last season with Sir Des Champs coming out on top, but Hidden Cyclone was not 100% that day, so could gain revenge. Connections think the world of him and the ground will be perfect, so I certainly expect him to run well. At the prices though, I will go for TIDAL BAY. Paul Nicholls has a very good record when sending horses over for the top Irish races and I can sense that he is very confident that Tidal Bay will run a massive race. He loves heavy ground and his run in the Hennessy when conceding weight to Bobs Worth was a classy effort, so he enters the race in top form. It is also interesting to hear Paul Nicholls say that he has discovered the way to train him and that is shown by his last two runs, which were both top class. At odds of 5/1 I think he represents value as I am not sure how many of his opponents would have run so well in the Hennessy off a mark of 166 2 from 2! Good work! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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