Stoke City v Fulham > Saturday 24th November

[Aidymac]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR=class: row1] [TD=class: firstColumn]Stoke City v Fulham (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.37[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.29 % [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Jase82]

I presume Brede Hangeland will be suspended for this game. Stoke is a tough place to go without having to go there minus your best central defender. I can't remember the last time he missed a Fulham game, and I'm pretty sure he played all Fulham's game last season and this. I presume Senderos will come in, which isn't a bad thing I suppose.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Stoke City v Fulham > Saturday 24th November Odds look quite fair from what I can see, would have Stoke at 2.20. Fulham generally dont travel as well but have posed a goal threat on the road at times this season scoring 3 at our place, 2 at United. Stoke's home games tend to be quite tight and they seem to be struggling in attack. First thought would be to swerve this.

[neilovan]

Re: Stoke City v Fulham > Saturday 24th November Wow , what a strange matchup this game is. Fulham have been over 2.5 goals per game every away game this season. Their opponents have got over the 2.5 goal mark 4 times in 6 by themselves. They go into this game missing an ever present defender. Stoke are at the other end of the over 2.5 goals chart at home. Played 5 games , 5 times under 2.5 goals. They put up a defensive wall at home conceding 1 goal in 5 games (Man city scored 1). They have kept 4 cleansheets in 5 games, and that makes over 2.5 goals in game tough (especially when you can't score many yourself) Stokes 5 home games have an average goals per game of 1 :zzz . Their last 8 home games of last season had 2 games over 2.5 goals. SO that's 2 in 13 games over 2.5 goals. Will Hangeland's absence make such a massive difference or will stoke grind out another dull affair ? My feeling is that if Man CIty and Arsenal struggled so much with stoke here that Fulham will also battle. Another eye opening stat : in the major European leagues (England, Portugal, Germany,Scotland, France, Italy , Spain, Holland, Belgium, Turkey) Stoke and Ajaccio (France) have the worst home goals per game average of all the teams in these leagues (both average 1), this season. Summarize: Wall like stoke defence Historically under 2.5 (11 of last 13) Lowest goal average in whole of major league Europe. I am leaning towards under 2.5 match goals at 1.72 on bet365. (Go on Stoke, have a break out weekend and score 5 :wall . Make neilo stick the stats up his number 2 :eek) The bookies are also giving nothing for the under 3.5 goals (1.3) while the over 3.5 goals is massive at 3.4 Neil.

[Jase82]

Fulham + 0.25 @ 2.05 - bet365. After viewing Stoke's last two games I fancy Fulham to get something here. I haven't got the stats but I'd wager Stoke are the side with one of the least chances created this season. They have decent players going forward, but their style of play has always been limited. While Fulham have traditionally been a weak away side, this season they have really got at teams. Obviously Stoke away will be a tough test, but I'd back Fulham to create a fair amount here, and should Stoke fall behind they will struggle to get back into the game. Even with the absence of Hangeland, Senderos is more than able replacement.

[ruscopico]

Re: Stoke City v Fulham > Saturday 24th November Thanks for the stats Neil, this just screams no bet for me.

[Guest]

Re: Stoke City v Fulham > Saturday 24th November

I presume Brede Hangeland will be suspended for this game. Stoke is a tough place to go without having to go there minus your best central defender. I can't remember the last time he missed a Fulham game' date=' and I'm pretty sure he played all Fulham's game last season and this. I presume Senderos will come in, which isn't a bad thing I suppose.[/quote'] The club have not appealed the suspension so that is 3 games. Senderos and Hughes are not the best at blocking aerial threats, and both are fairly short (Hangeland is 6'4"). We have conceded the most headed goals on the league this season (9 I think) so this is a big worry for Fulham; up against a large physical side who try to win corners and free kicks. Senderos is not as bad as people make put, but like I said the aerial threat is very real if you are playing Stoke at the Brittania. Probably a no bet for me too, I'll explain why later, but it is mainly down to the Fulham squad changes since the Sunderland game. Very tough to call this one Neil, and like I said before probably a no bet. Bryan Ruiz is injured - a big blow as he has scored two goals and gained 6 assists this season and is our most creative player. Hangeland suspended - see post above about aerial weaknesses. Alex Kacaniklic also injured - not sure how many of you guys have seen him play but he has been out best LM by a long way and is a big loss not to have him. Both he and Ruiz were starting to link up well with Berbatov. This means rodallega will probably play lm/lw as he has before for FFC, and was AWFUL. seriously. Probable formation Schwarzer Riether Hughes Senderos Riise Duff Baird Diarra Rodallega Petric / Berbatov Given the huge number of goals scored by Fulham away and the unpredictability of it all I would say no bet, however if the odds are unnaturally long based on Stokes home record it may be worth a punt on over 3.5 even so, that would take big balls... Steer clear people!

[Aidymac]

Re: Stoke City v Fulham > Saturday 24th November *Stoke WIN @ 2.22 > Betfair* I find it hard to see Fulham winning this match with Hangeland out, as the above poster mentioned Fulham have conceded a lot of headed goals this season which means they struggle against set pieces, and they will miss Hangeland's height. Ruiz is also a big blow as he had been playing very well of late. Stoke have not lost at home in the Premier League since last February, and although a draw is a very likely outcome, i fancy Stoke to snatch this match 1-0, they are a tough physical side, very good defensively at home and Fulham have conceded 8 goals in their last 3 league games.

[neilovan]

Re: Stoke City v Fulham > Saturday 24th November Was looking at 1st and 2nd half stats again. In the 5 home games stoke have played this season there has been 1 second half goal scored. This was against QPR, (Sunderland, Swansea, Man City, Arsenal could not manage a goal between them) Stoke have the lowest 2nd half average goals (0.2 per game ) out of any team in Major league Europe. This is a team that defends solidly but fails to score. Having fewer goals in the second half is also very much against the norm. I still think 1.72 for under 2.5 is great but I also like the 1st half with more goals at 11/5 on bet365)

[Mindfulness]

Re: Stoke City v Fulham > Saturday 24th November Stoke City V Fulham Stoke City -0.25 @ 43/50 (Pinnacle) 1 Unit Very interesting thread with some good info and various view points, for me personally Fulham have not entirely convinced me of their away credentials yet. Results have improved on their travels thus far and with some goals in the mix also but they've all been against sides with leaky defences, Stoke will be one of the more robust sides Fulham have faced away this season. The absence of Hangeland, Kacaniklic, Richards and Ruiz should be felt by the away side here, limiting their creativity while also hampering their attempts to deal with Stoke's ariel ability. Clearly Stoke themselves are lacking a bit of forward threat at the momment and I can understand why people are skeptical about the home side claiming all 3pts in this one. I feel that backing the home side with half draw cover in these circumstances will be profitable over the long term and so it's a play I'm willing to make here. The -0.25 line was available at 9/10 which I feel is value, unfortunately it has shortened slightly but still just about takeable at the price I've posted above.

[wisey10]

Re: Stoke City v Fulham > Saturday 24th November Just one note on this match. Stoke are really struggling with fullbacks. Mark Wilson the regular left back is out long term and his replacement Andy Wilkinson is now out for a couple of weeks. This leaves us with Shotton to fill in and quite frankly he's out of his depth. So we might not be quite as solid at the back in this match as normal. I know it's only 1 change but it's something that can have a large influence on the defensive unit as a whole.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Stoke City v Fulham > Saturday 24th November The loss of Ruiz and Hangeland is tough for Fulham but for some reason I am getting the feeling that they may get a result at the Britannia. They could partner Berbatov with Petric or Rodallega which is quite dangerous and better than what Stoke have got from what I can see. Or maybe Berbatov on his own flanked by wide players and then pack the midfield with Baird, Diarra and Sidwell. This screams close game to me and the odds are not far off what I would set them at. With Fulham's absentees, there's just enough reason for me to say no bet here but I can see Fulham nicking a point as Stoke's attacking play has been quite poor. IMO At best a narrow one goal win for Stoke, I just dont see them comprehensively beating many sides at this moment in time.

[assange58]

Re: Stoke City v Fulham > Saturday 24th November

Thanks for the stats Neil' date=' this just screams no bet for me.[/quote'] Couldn't have said it better.

[longy70]

Re: Stoke City v Fulham > Saturday 24th November Some really good analysis above folks! but this is one game i wont be touching could easily go either way, Good luck

[saimon76]

Re: Stoke City v Fulham > Saturday 24th November Looking at the calendar also, stoke is having 2 home games and in my opinion has to hit 1 win or at least 2 draw, then they will have 2 aw at Aston villa and wba first, not very easy games in this period, Even worst for fulham that has to go to derby against chelsea, than Spurs and Newcastle at home. I suppose Stoke will try to find this win given the absences of Fulham, and they can also accept a draw. I will use the 1x sign in a treble, charghing some units...

[blackcrow]

Re: Stoke City v Fulham > Saturday 24th November Stoke @ 2.20 sportsbet Stoke with just one goal allowed and four clean sheets in their five home games so far this season are pretty hard to beat then and with Fulham having conceded in each of their six away games, as well as allowing at least two goals in 5 of these 6 away games, then like Stoke to do enough here to edge it. Though Fulham have scored at least two goals in 5 of their 6 away games, they will find it difficult breaching this defence, while they are without Hangeland in defence, which gives Crouch a big edge in the air for Stoke. Home side has won 4 of the last 5 meetings and like Stoke's solid defence to give them to the edge here

[neilovan]

Re: Stoke City v Fulham > Saturday 24th November Just watching the sunderland / WBA game. A team that is struggling to score will continue to struggle to score. It's not something that a manager can inject or create. They either have it or they don't . I just cannot see stoke having a breakout weekend....

[kathir]

Re: Stoke City v Fulham > Saturday 24th November iam going for over 4.5 at 50

[Aidymac]

Re: Stoke City v Fulham > Saturday 24th November

iam going for over 4.5 at 50

Welcome Kathir. You need to put reasoning with your bets, and put the bookmaker you got the price with down also.

[Aidymac]

Re: Stoke City v Fulham > Saturday 24th November

*Stoke WIN @ 2.22 > Betfair* I find it hard to see Fulham winning this match with Hangeland out, as the above poster mentioned Fulham have conceded a lot of headed goals this season which means they struggle against set pieces, and they will miss Hangeland's height. Ruiz is also a big blow as he had been playing very well of late. Stoke have not lost at home in the Premier League since last February, and although a draw is a very likely outcome, i fancy Stoke to snatch this match 1-0, they are a tough physical side, very good defensively at home and Fulham have conceded 8 goals in their last 3 league games.

As predicted, 1-0 to Stoke. They really are quite a predictable side at home, and i would imagine it pays to bet on unders when they play at home. They are very solid defensively at home, very physical, and Fulham could not break them down. :beer

[neilovan]

Re: Stoke City v Fulham > Saturday 24th November I'm happy with the 1-0 . Rock solid unders:cigar . Welcome you little strangers (as he rakes in the chips).

[Jase82]

Good shout Aidy :ok Stoke getting the first goal was the killer here.

[Aidymac]

Re: Stoke City v Fulham > Saturday 24th November

Good shout Aidy :ok Stoke getting the first goal was the killer here.

Ya it was. All they want is 1 goal at home, then all men behind the ball and grind it out. 9 of their last 10 games have gone under, and 12 of their last 14 home league games have gone under, just shows what a negative side they are.

[ruscopico]

Re: Stoke City v Fulham > Saturday 24th November

Was looking at 1st and 2nd half stats again. In the 5 home games stoke have played this season there has been 1 second half goal scored. This was against QPR, (Sunderland, Swansea, Man City, Arsenal could not manage a goal between them) Stoke have the lowest 2nd half average goals (0.2 per game ) out of any team in Major league Europe. This is a team that defends solidly but fails to score. Having fewer goals in the second half is also very much against the norm. I still think 1.72 for under 2.5 is great but I also like the 1st half with more goals at 11/5 on bet365)

Hope you got on the 1st half to have more goals Neil, it was a great shout.

[blackcrow]

Re: Stoke City v Fulham > Saturday 24th November

Stoke @ 2.20 :D

Hit a treble today :lol 29-55 (-16.73)

[IAmGooner]

Re: Stoke City v Fulham > Saturday 24th November

I'm happy with the 1-0 . Rock solid unders:cigar . Welcome you little strangers (as he rakes in the chips).

Where is your bet? I can't see it.

[neilovan]

Re: Stoke City v Fulham > Saturday 24th November

Was looking at 1st and 2nd half stats again. In the 5 home games stoke have played this season there has been 1 second half goal scored. This was against QPR, (Sunderland, Swansea, Man City, Arsenal could not manage a goal between them) Stoke have the lowest 2nd half average goals (0.2 per game ) out of any team in Major league Europe. This is a team that defends solidly but fails to score. Having fewer goals in the second half is also very much against the norm. I still think 1.72 for under 2.5 is great but I also like the 1st half with more goals at 11/5 on bet365)

I took both the under 2.5 and the more 1st half goals, so 1-0 works well for me (goal in 26th minute) :cigar

[IAmGooner]

Re: Stoke City v Fulham > Saturday 24th November Ah right, might be good to highlight the bets you actually take like others do, if not the wording makes them sound like leans. Well done anyway.

[neilovan]

Re: Stoke City v Fulham > Saturday 24th November ok no problem, I did'nt realise that people were doing that :)

[IAmGooner]

Re: Stoke City v Fulham > Saturday 24th November It's just you seem a good and knowledgeable tipster, might aswell highlight what you are playing so its easier for people to follow. Dont think it's in the rules but for the sake of a few seconds, it helps others too I feel.