Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November

[Aidymac]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR=class: row1] [TD=class: firstColumn]Everton v Norwich City (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.44[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.65[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]10.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.26 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Jase82]

Everton are short again. You can just tell they'll concede first, and struggle to a small win. Norwich are improving a lot, while Everton have slipped off the boil a bit, so I think Norwich on the handicap would appeal here. If there's decent cover in the event of an expected Everton onslaught. Maybe unders, as Norwich have tightened up considerably, and both sides look likely to be fighting quite hard for the points here.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November Yep too short, I'd genuinely price Everton around 1.80 tbh. The thing with Norwich is that they have been doing their best work at home, but overall there's been a clear improvement in their defensive shape and they have players who can cause you some problems in attack with Pilkington, Holt, Hoolahan. I thought they were gone after seeing their first few matches this season but Hughton deserves a heap of credit and deserved wins against Arsenal and United at home back up how they've improved. Everton have dipped recently, should have buried Reading in the first half, much like Fulham a few weeks back, but didnt take their chances and were made to pay. Jelavic is not firing and I think that is the key problem for them. Also think Fellaini will be banned which is huge for them, he's been class in the first 10 games or so and has posed a goal threat too. Gut feeling now would be draw or Everton win narrowly by a goal. Would never touch them at 1.4/1.5ish though.

[Jase82]

If you're right about Fellaini that could indeed be huge, as Phil Neville is out for three weeks, and he's massive for them. One positive should be the return of Kevin Miralles, who was missing against Reading, and was missed. Assuming of course he recovers by Saturday. But yeah, Neville and Fellaini out is a real kicker.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November Yeah Fellaini is banned alright, got his 5th yellow so a one game ban coming up. He's been a collosus for them this season.

[Aidymac]

Re: Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November Norwich @ 10.5, just after beating Man United, beat Arsenal a couple of weeks ago, unbeaten in their last 6 games, have kept a clean sheet in their last 3 games in a row, and are 10.5 against Everton who just lost to Reading? :lol Of course, Everton should be clear fav's. But nearly 10/1 for Norwich is absolutely bonkers.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November Yeah it's a crazy price. Where is that 10odds coming from? I can see 8.00-8.50 in some bookies atm. Either way, that looks too big aswell. Everton are a good side but I wouldnt trust them enough to back them 1.4/1.5 against most sides in the league, maybe at home to Southampton they could justify those....:lol

[Aidymac]

Re: Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November

Yeah it's a crazy price. Where is that 10odds coming from? I can see 8.00-8.50 in some bookies atm. Either way, that looks too big aswell. Everton are a good side but I wouldnt trust them enough to back them 1.4/1.5 against most sides in the league, maybe at home to Southampton they could justify those....:lol

With the way the two sides are playing at the moment, taking probable teams into account, i would have it as Everton 8/11, Draw 5/2, Norwich 4/1. I think anything over 4/1 is a good price for Norwich, definately going to have a look at the handicap markets, they looked very good defensively yesterday against United, and Hoolihan/Pilkington/Holt are a threat going forward.

[stressina87]

Re: Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November i was thinking to take Everton,but whit these missings,first of all Fellaini i'll skip that game,even if i don't think in another clean sheat for Norwich! may be 1-1 correct score,no bet for me

[Mustafa]

Re: Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November Norwich are unbeaten in their last 6 games, and the fact that they beat Arsenal and Man.United can not be ignored. I can see them getting positive result here and even if they lose I can't see Everton winning by more than 1 goal. Norwich +2 @ 1.57 William Hill (good pick for an accumulator)

[SALVO7ITALY]

Re: Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November Norwich have really impressed me lately with there recent defense displays and now seem to be reliant on nicking the odd goal which has proved very successful. I remember before when they use to create chances for fun and leak goals by now the opposite seems to happen. Everton really struggle to finish off sides and without Fellani I can see them struggling to score because they seem too reliant on him. Under 2.5 Goals - 8pts

[Aidymac]

Re: Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November *Norwich WIN @ 8.4 > Betfair* *Norwich +1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.86 > Betfair* The value definately lies with the Canaries here for me. They are unbeaten in their last 6 games, 4 of those have been clean sheets, and three of those wins were against Arsenal, Spurs and Manchester United. How they can be priced up at 8.4 against a side that just lost to Reading and have only won 1 of their last 6 games, is beyond me. Mirallas, Anichebe, Fellaini, Gibson and Hibbert remain sidelined for Everton also which narrows the squad. Fellaini in particular is a huge loss. Even if Norwich lose by a goal, the handicap comes in, and that looks like a fantastic price to me.

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November Turner doubtfull Michael Turner is ‘touch and go’ “Michael took a knock in the same game so he will be touch and go but we are hopeful he will be okay. It is shoulder injury from a challenge and he is another one who hasn’t trained since the United game, but Russell Martin trained today, which is good, he had two days training so he is pushing on.” --- goalkeeper Ruddy had also some problems. If any of those two is missing then the improved backline will be hurt. Its really funny to see such a price on Everton. After some decent games they are always big favourites and will cost many punters. I think its rather interesting that many in everton camp are speaking about the tough games ahead but seem to forget about Norwich. With Fellaini missing and Neville out they miss their most important players besides Osman. There is much talk about their defense and I guess that they will try to tighten up as they lack the options going forward. In this case under 2,5 looks good. This game is made for Norwich and they troubled Everton in both fixtures last season. They will sit back and hope for everton loosing the ball to start the counter. Holt will pressure the back line as always like crazy. Everton will be pushed to win this game by their fans as expactations are high. This is the game norwich loves. Also if Moyes decides not to paly Distin and Gibson is not fit then they look very short for standards. I think Mirallas was very strong before his injury and he could posses a big threat to Norwich. Im not ready to back Norwich until Turner and Ruddy wil ltrain with the team and be match fit. Odds surely must go up on Everton? Norwich beat arsenal and man u. maybe some didnt realize their best player fellaini is missing? Holt to score @11/4 looks good too as he managed to score vs Everton last season in both games. I guess he will be eager to score again. He is the target man for Norwich and would probably take penaltys.

[gogoto]

Re: Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November Interesting "Scout report" imho: http://theexecutionersbong.wordpress.com/ - one of my favourite blogs allways with trustworthy insight.

[AaronFern]

Re: Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November will be waiting for the team news before i go into this game. it depends on two players for either team, if michael turner does not start norwich's defence wont look as convincing as past couple of weeks. and if mirrallas starts than on the bench it may sway some bets. if mirallas is missing i'll take the value of under 2.5 goals at 2.10 @bet365 as well as norwich +1.5 AHP at 1.58 @bet365 norwichs 3 clean sheets in a row and man utd win, back that up for me. they also have conceded more than 2 goals in only 2 of their games this season. i was tempted with the both teams to score this has happened in 9 out of 12 everton games, but norwich have only got 3 away goals all season, so i'm not totally convinced. i suppose norwich wont want to sit back and defend the whole game, but everton can be quite dominating at home.

[blackcrow]

Re: Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November Under 2.5 @ 2.16 pinnacle Everton have scored at least twice in each of their last four home games while they have conceded at least twice, but they go into this game without Fellaini, and they will miss his height and nuisance value for set pieces and crosses. Norwich have four (all at home) and drawn two (both on the road) in their last 6 games, as they have four clean sheets and allowed just one goal in the other two games. Also they have scored six goals in these games as they have been relying on, and thankful, for their defence for the points they have picked up. Can see them once again holding out a good team, and not expecting too many goals scored in this one. Last season they drew 1-1 at Goodison Park and looking at another similar scoreline here

[Jase82]

Norwich + 1 @ 2.15 - bet365. Reasoning above. I just feel Everton struggle when favourites, and are missing a couple of key men. Coupled with the improvement of Norwich who I fancy to put up a lot of fight here. I certainly can't see Everton running away with it.

[aulitviez]

Re: Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November Guys don't be naive. Bookies knows fellaini is missing but still fancy everton to win this for one good reason: EVERTON SQUAD HAVE LOT MORE QUALITIES THAN POOR TRAVELLING NORWICH SIDEpick everton to win 2-1.

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November

Guys don't be naive. Bookies knows fellaini is missing but still fancy everton to win this for one good reason: EVERTON SQUAD HAVE LOT MORE QUALITIES THAN POOR TRAVELLING NORWICH SIDEpick everton to win 2-1.

Its also about odds. Everton has some important missings. They won only one in the last 6 games and drew 4! So why should they win today when their two most improtant players are missing? Is Naismith able to produce stable performances and take responsibility in this game? Is Jelavic in goalscoring form? will mirallas be fit? Is gibson fit to play 90 minutes? What happened last season in the same game between these two? Are you a winning punter?

[H1]

Re: Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November

Norwich @ 10.5, just after beating Man United, beat Arsenal a couple of weeks ago, unbeaten in their last 6 games, have kept a clean sheet in their last 3 games in a row, and are 10.5 against Everton who just lost to Reading? :lol Of course, Everton should be clear fav's. But nearly 10/1 for Norwich is absolutely bonkers.

well, agreed it's a big price for an improved Norwich side, but don't you think quoting home wins has little to do here? If you look how Norwich travel, you'd have to agree an away win is quite unlikely...

[Aidymac]

Re: Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November

well' date=' agreed [b']it's a big price for an improved Norwich side, but don't you think quoting home wins has little to do here? If you look how Norwich travel, you'd have to agree an away win is quite unlikely...

There, you said it. I rest my case

[Reverand_bookmaker]

Re: Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November Everton are woefully short but maybe with a bit more reason than last week against reading, they havnt lost at home this season while norwich havnt won away and have only scored 3 goals as mentioned above. Norwich played well last week their shape was solid but united lacked any creativity, having 62% of possession with the same amount of attempts on goal. Ruddy is fit to play and put in a commanding performance last week, as did Turner and he will be a big miss if he doesnt play. If Everton play with Mirallas, Osman, Gibson will be forced back into action without Fellaini, Hitzlsperger, Naismith, Jelavic I can see them winning, but not by any great margin so the Norwich 1.5AH mentioned above looks good but also cant see this being a goal fest. bUnder 2.5 goals 23/20 with William Hill

[Jase82]

well, agreed it's a big price for an improved Norwich side, but don't you think quoting home wins has little to do here? If you look how Norwich travel, you'd have to agree an away win is quite unlikely...

Would you not agree that an unlikely Norwich win is demonstrated by them being given odds of ten? That's only a 10% chance of winning obviously, which looks like the Norwich win is being viewed as unlikely. Yet if Aidy said they should even have an 11% chance if winning, that would make Norwich value? Of course a Norwich win is unlikely. They're bottom six, while Everton are probably top six. But there is no such thing as an unlikely win if you're talking about percentages.

[Aidymac]

Re: Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November

Would you not agree that an unlikely Norwich win is demonstrated by them being given odds of ten? That's only a 10% chance of winning obviously, which looks like the Norwich win is being viewed as unlikely. Yet if Aidy said they should even have an 11% chance if winning, that would make Norwich value? Of course a Norwich win is unlikely. They're bottom six, while Everton are probably top six. But there is no such thing as an unlikely win if you're talking about percentages.

I have Norwich as having a 18% - 22% chance of winning the game. The odds i backed them at gave Norwich a 12% chance, so is definate value in my eyes. You also must factor in they have kept 3 clean sheets in a row and beat Arsenal and Man Utd recently.

[allthethings]

Re: Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November Numbers-wise, it's a draw game...bookies aren't stupid, but the public are, and the public is who is sustaining the ridiculous odds. I'm on the draw @ 4.57, simply because huge dogs are have 20 wins and 42 draws when the odds on the dog are between 6.0 and 7.99 this season and the past three...current odds for Norwich are 7.79 at my book.

[dylanphan]

Re: Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November I have yet to post a loser on this forum, albeit a very small sample size of 6 or so posts. So, this one will surely be a loser. Mark me down in the camp of taking a punt on Norwich +685 at my book (and I've backed it with a 1/4 stake at draw at +385). I'm going to call a shot and think this is a good spot for Norwich to get an away win, and book me a large win to boost up my account. Everton night and day without Felliani, no one to really control the midfield for them. No linkup from defense to offense and an added threat to score. Jelavic is a very dangerous striker, but they seemed to be able to handle RvP very well last week, and I see no reason for the same again this week. Norwich is very well organized in defense, and I think Everton will find it tough going to get chances. Now, of course to win, you do need to score, and goals have been hard to come by for Norwich - and should be again at Goodison. But, you have to like the heart and spirit that the Canaries play with, and if they get on the counter, they can cause a bit of trouble, and hopefully a goal or two. And at such fantastic odds here, I find them to be well too long. I could have held this one to myself and kept my record clean, but I have read a few winners on this forum and for that I will just document my play here and hopefully we can all be celebrating together come this afternoon (evening for most of you) g'luck

[Aidymac]

Re: Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November

*Norwich WIN @ 8.4 > Betfair* *Norwich +1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.86 > Betfair* The value definately lies with the Canaries here for me. They are unbeaten in their last 6 games, 4 of those have been clean sheets, and three of those wins were against Arsenal, Spurs and Manchester United. How they can be priced up at 8.4 against a side that just lost to Reading and have only won 1 of their last 6 games, is beyond me. Mirallas, Anichebe, Fellaini, Gibson and Hibbert remain sidelined for Everton also which narrows the squad. Fellaini in particular is a huge loss. Even if Norwich lose by a goal, the handicap comes in, and that looks like a fantastic price to me.

Everton throw away another game, but in fairness to Norwich they were probably the better side in the 2nd half and deserved a draw. Main bet came in on the handicap. :beer

[Reverand_bookmaker]

Re: Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November

Everton are woefully short but maybe with a bit more reason than last week against reading, they havnt lost at home this season while norwich havnt won away and have only scored 3 goals as mentioned above. Norwich played well last week their shape was solid but united lacked any creativity, having 62% of possession with the same amount of attempts on goal. Ruddy is fit to play and put in a commanding performance last week, as did Turner and he will be a big miss if he doesnt play. If Everton play with Mirallas, Osman, Gibson will be forced back into action without Fellaini, Hitzlsperger, Naismith, Jelavic I can see them winning, but not by any great margin so the Norwich 1.5AH mentioned above looks good but also cant see this being a goal fest. bUnder 2.5 goals 23/20 with William Hill

Not the correct line up but the bet came through so what odds.

[neilovan]

Re: Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November Nice call on the handicap. Followed you there as well. Early goal had me a little nervous. I'm happy with the +1.5 . :cigar . Welcome you little strangers (as he rakes in the chips).

[blackcrow]

Re: Everton v Norwich City > Saturday 24th November

Under 2.5 @ 2.16

:D 28-55 (-17.93)