Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)

[Sir Puntalot]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR=class: row1] [TD=class: firstColumn]Valencia v FC Bayern München (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.3[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.56 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR=class: row1] [TD=class: firstColumn]FC BATE Borisov v Lille OSC (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.9[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.93 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[usun]

Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) well, BATE took their 7th domestic title in a row this weekend. they have no issues with the lineup. However, they may be out of shape already due to almost end of the regular season. But what is even more important, based on previous years experience, after winning domestic title (they usually do it well in advance) they just stop playing any football till next season. Last two games in euro cups in group stages were a crap quality from them usually. If we look to ECL group situation, they have no realistic hope for ECL playoff and they practically guaranteed EL playoff. So, they'll be playing against Lille just for prize money and rating, not a hell of motivation. May be, just may be this year coaches change their psychology and they are not so burnt out due to the squad depth, but won't put much hope in that. As for pitch, it will be bad. Weather will be horrific this time of year in Minsk, so it'll be very hard for Lille to adapt. Saying all this... HW odds are not so good. May be draw is ok. It's not clear to what extent is Lille demoralized and if they really want to bounce back from previous game vs Bayern.

[usun]

Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) just to support my opinion that BATE won't fight from now on. EL playoff starts before regular season start in Belarus, plus Hleb most likely will leave the team on January. That means BATE need to do an early circle to get prepared to early next season start, so they should rest from now on. Their management is very practical and can easily give up all the rest of games this year if they think it makes sense (not sure do they really need prize money from Lille game). Plus vs Lille they'll be playing in Minsk, not a home crowd and nobody is going blame them for losing all games. It depends how bad is Lille right now. May be both team score is a good call. BATE's defence is prone to choke, they cannot maintain concentration for the full time.

[swindonfan]

Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)

they have no realistic hope for ECL playoff and they practically guaranteed EL playoff. So' date=' they'll be playing against Lille just for prize money and rating, not a hell of motivation[/quote'] Not sure if i understand correctly surely if they win this game then they will have 9 points and then a win or even a draw in the final match will see them qualify. It will be difficult but is far from out of the question.

[usun]

Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) They'll just lose to Bayern. I'm judging on their previous experience, they won't be motivated here enough plus will be out of shape due to the end of season in Belarus. Even BATE's management told earlier that they are not ready for ECL playoff and are happy with EL playoff, they prefer gradual development strategy, step-by-step. Plus this winter will be a bit tricky, there is not stadium in Belarus to play any play off match this season. Minsk Dynamo will be closed for full reconstruction, new home stadium in Borisov will be completed only on summer. Basically they have no place to play, may be for EL playoff UEFA will make an exception for Homel stadium, in other cases they'll have to go to Moscow or Kiev. And Hleb's contract is till January only. So, they'll have a lot of problems to get prepared for any playoff game on winter, and got very limited resources. So I guess they won't push to hard this year in order not to compromise the whole next season cycle.

[usun]

Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) oh, and 10 points won't be enough in most cases. - It will be enough only if Valencia wins vs Bayern and BATE is kicking out Bayern out of second spot in direct confrontation - it won't happen. - If Valencia and Bayern draw - both will have 10 points before the last game and Valencia has better head-to-head vs Bate even if they manage to lose against Lille. - If Bayern wins vs Valencia, then it's even worse, it may be not enough to get even 12 points for Bate (as Valencia will probably win vs Lille) and it will be +/- for goal difference between all three. So even miracle win for Bate for both games may be not enough.

[Jase82]

If the motivation isn't going to be there for BATE, what's the motivation likely to be like for Lille? They've been atrocious and have no chance of progressing.

[usun]

Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) yes, that's why it's bit tricky. Lille is horrific, Bate will be without motivation, pitch and weather will be for Bate. I think both teams should score. It's interesting to get any insight about Lille will they even try to bounce back after previous game? If they get their motivation they can win this one.

[swindonfan]

Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) Good posts USUN. What do you think about Bate on Saturday. They play Slavia away. Slavia dont look very good but they still need some points to avoid relegation so will be motivated. I expect Bate will play without some of their best players and take it easy now they have won the league already.

[usun]

Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) yes, it will be second or even third squad. it's around 0 temperature in Belarus, snow, horrible pitches and they won't risk injuries of key players in such context. So, a chance for some young players will be given. The funny thing is that they still can win it, but sure there will around 0 motivation and effort from BATE, may be except back-ups who may want to impress the coach.

[usun]

Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) Oh, and Paulou midfielder from the startup line is injured for BATE. He was the best partner for Hleb, and it will probably mean that again Bressan (he is in a good shape) will be in starting lineup together with Hleb. It will mean less balanced team with more preferences to attack than usual for them.

[Mustafa]

Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) Valencia - B.Munich Both sides play open football and neither side is really strong in defense. During the weekend Valencia struggled at home against bottom placed Osasuna, and only managed 2-1 win by scoring a late penalty. The Germans were not impressive either and drew 1-1 away against Nurnberg. Moreover, in the last 4 games between these two Both to Score bet always won and I think this might happen again here. I am leaning towards 1-1 draw because both sides will be happy with it. Both to Score @ 1.57 William Hill

[assange58]

Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)

Valencia - B.Munich Both sides play open football and neither side is really strong in defense. During the weekend Valencia struggled at home against bottom placed Osasuna, and only managed 2-1 win by scoring a late penalty. The Germans were not impressive either and drew 1-1 away against Nurnberg.

Valencia played Espanyol and indeed they struggled. Espanyol dominated large portions of the match and Valencia IMO were fortunate to pull out a victory. Nevertheless, they were missing both fullbacks, Cissokho (suspension) and Pereira (injury, I think), Matheiu (injury) and Gago (injury). Cissokho will be back, but not sure about the others. As for Bayern, you really shouldn't read too much into the Nurnberg match as Heynkes rotated nearly his entire back 4 and gave Ribery a break. Robben was out with injury, not sure if he'll be ready for Valencia. Its seems likely that the plan was to prepare for Valencia and with Gomez being back, I expect a rested Bayern to be a far tougher side than was on display Saturday. All that said, I don't disagree with your bet selection or that both sides might be willing to take a a draw considering the circumstances--e.g. Bayern playing tough away game and Valencia missing key players.

[usun]

Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) I read today that Lille will be without 6 players from the starting line-up, they went without them to Minsk. Not sure about all positions affected, but it suddenly looks good for HW. Seems defenders and mid-field mostly, so BATE should score some even with their bad shape. Out: Chedjou (midfield, inj), Tulio de Melo (???, inj), Mendesh (???, inj), Beria (defender, inj), Debuchi (defender, resting), Balmont (mid-field, resting)

[Ksasha]

Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) To speak to a lack of motivation to Bate funny. Bate for every game in European competition is a holiday treat for fans. BATE motivated for this match, and in any case will play to win, because chances out of the group remain. The hosts will not play Mozolevski and Pavlov. Lille arrived in Minsk without a few main players and their chances of getting into the Europa League seem elusive.

[dugong]

Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) i think motivation in Lille camp will be lower than BATE but still, the price had drifted in favour of Lille. seems like everyone is on Lille not to lose this as the price for Lille +0.5 had drifted from 0.9 to 0.79. draw is not a bad result for Lille so maybe they will just go n' park the bus?

[blackcrow]

Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) BATE Borisov @ 2.18 pinnacle BATE Borisov have 6 points and are 3 points behind Bayern Munich and Valencia. They have every reason to go and win this game as they are a chance of progressing as long as they win this game. A very good 3-1 win at home over Bayern Munich and another 3-1 win at Lille suggests they are right for this game. Lille in sorts of trouble and have lost all four group games. They have scored just two goals while conceding 12, and it looks like they will be without a number of players for this game, so doubt that they are motivated to play. Valencia v Bayern Munich under 2.5 @ 2.14 pinnacle Both teams sit on 9 points and no real need for either side to go all out and get the 3 points, as Valencia has Lille next and should be too strong for them while Bayern are at home to BATE Borisov and will be expected to make up for their surprise loss to them in the reverse fixture. Bayern won the reverse fixture 2-1 but are without several key attackers while others are coming back from injury so they are not as potent up front, while their defence is good. Their coach has already stated that he will be happy with a point, so would not be surprised if he plays with some more defensive-minded players in this game. Valencia kept clean sheets against Lille and BATE Borisov so they will be looking not to concede to Bayern like they did in the reverse game. Though they too have some injury concerns, this should then even up the several players that Bayern are also missing. By the looks of this, not much between the two sides and like this to remain a low scoring game

[Aidymac]

Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) *Bayern Munich WIN @ 6/5 Stanjames* I think regardless of what happens here tonight, both teams know qualification is in their own hands in the last match. Bayern have BATE at home, and Valencia face a very poor Lille side, so although this is a huge game, it is not a disaster for the losing side. I do, however, feel that Bayern will win. They are one of the best sides on the continent, and have plenty of match-winners on their side with Pizarro, Mueller, Ribery and Shaqiri. Bayern already beat Valencia 2-1 at home, and destroyed Lille 6-1 in their last match. They certainly have goals in them, in my opinion have that bit more class than Valencia, they are leading the Bundesliga and i fancy them to take the 3 points tonight.

[swindonfan]

Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) Best thing here is to read what the Bate manager says regarding motivation. He thinks they are motivated. From a betting perspective I think we have to take his word for it. http://www.sportinglife.com/football/live/match-preview/274067/bate-borisov-v-lille

[swindonfan]

Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) £25000 on betfair looking to lay Bate at 2.22. That seems to defy logic slightly so probably means somebody knows something. I reckon Bate will be going with an understrength side.

[Jase82]

£25000 on betfair looking to lay Bate at 2.22. That seems to defy logic slightly so probably means somebody knows something. I reckon Bate will be going with an understrength side.

Knows what though? I say it every week, anything substantial would be public knowledge, and a sum of money laid down on the home or away side doesn't necessarily mean anything because a lot of big hitters are playing a numbers game. Stick with where you see the value, and let anything else drift you by :ok

[assange58]

Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)

Best thing here is to read what the Bate manager says regarding motivation. He thinks they are motivated. From a betting perspective I think we have to take his word for it.

Question: what else could he say? That they are not motivated? That would surely be an indictment of his own managerial acumen, no?

[assange58]

Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)

I say it every week' date=' anything substantial would be public knowledge,[/quote'] Please explain. Not a conspiracy theorist, but plenty of examples exist where the public is the last to know things. Perfect example is the Facebook IPO launch.

[Fedar]

Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) I really don't get the point of Bate not being motivated, because qualifying for the next stage of either CL or EL will disrupt their winter preparation. First, winning tonight means a few more millions of euro in BATE's account, and believe - these money are vital for this team. Unlike Lille, they don't play in a fancy league where they get full stadiums at high prices and a lot of merchandise income. European money are key to BATE's development and growth, so each point they could win in CL is crucial for them. Second, BATE has been the champions of Belarus for six or seven consecutive years and they face absolutely no competition at home. I mean this is not the Premiership where for instance playing in Europe League might distract you and make you fail to qualify for CL. Even with a disruption in their winter pre-season preparation, BATE should easily earn another title and at the same time be ready for CL qualifyiers in July.

[HastGill1]

Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) I agree, the argument sounds like utter nonsense and makes no sense at all. Why did they bother playing all those qualifying matches? I remember the celebrations after they scored two in injury time to beat Vardar in the qualifying game in early August..that was not a side who weren't bothered about going through or not. The CL is now the pinnacle of all players careers and BATE going through would be a huge achievement..

[swindonfan]

Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)

Knows what though? I say it every week' date=' anything substantial would be public knowledge, and a sum of money laid down on the home or away side doesn't necessarily mean anything because a lot of big hitters are playing a numbers game. Stick with where you see the value, and let anything else drift you by :ok[/quote'] You are correct it doesnt neccessarily mean anything but also it doesnt neccessarily not mean anything. I wouldnt be at all surprised if that £25000 wishing to lay Bate 4 hours before kick off was from somebody who had some kind of knowledge that the media and ordinary folk like us are not privy to. Could be a relative or freind of a player or someone who works at the club. I am not suggesting a conspiracy or a fix only that someone saw value laying at 2.2 because they knew something that was not public knowledge i.e that Bate were not up for it. Could of course be coincidence but 0-2 after 30 minutes looks like they and also Usun in this case were correct.

[swindonfan]

Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)

I agree' date=' the argument sounds like utter nonsense and makes no sense at all. Why did they bother playing all those qualifying matches? I remember the celebrations after they scored two in injury time to beat Vardar in the qualifying game in early August..that was not a side who weren't bothered about going through or not. The CL is now the pinnacle of all players careers and BATE going through would be a huge achievement..[/quote'] I agree with all you say. But your thinking is very British thinking. Eastern Europeans think in a different way just look at Usun and Feeder for evidence of that:lol. Maybe Bate know that they have reached their limit and have taken a more long term view and are focusing on next season.

[babibet]

Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) Getting better at second half, but BATE passes and set pieces still awful :wall. Wonder how do they beat Bayern with this awful play

[Fedar]

Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)

Eastern Europeans think in a different way just look at Usun and Feeder for evidence of that:lol./QUOTE] True that Eastern Europeans, but in fact we had quite opposing views on the subject. ;-) >Could of course be coincidence but 0-2 after 30 minutes looks like they and also Usun in this case were correct. Not that Lille beating BATE is the biggest surprise in the history of CL. :-)

[Fedar]

Re: Group F > Nov 20 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)

Valencia v Bayern Munich under 2.5 @ 2.14 pinnacle Both teams sit on 9 points and no real need for either side to go all out and get the 3 points, as Valencia has Lille next and should be too strong for them while Bayern are at home to BATE Borisov and will be expected to make up for their surprise loss to them in the reverse fixture. Bayern won the reverse fixture 2-1 but are without several key attackers while others are coming back from injury so they are not as potent up front, while their defence is good. Their coach has already stated that he will be happy with a point, so would not be surprised if he plays with some more defensive-minded players in this game. Valencia kept clean sheets against Lille and BATE Borisov so they will be looking not to concede to Bayern like they did in the reverse game. Though they too have some injury concerns, this should then even up the several players that Bayern are also missing. By the looks of this, not much between the two sides and like this to remain a low scoring game

I was thinking about such bet myself, but Lille's victory changes everything here. There is no theoretical chance that Valencia won't qualify, so in this case, they have nothing to lose and might try their best against Bayern, so that they get the first place. I expect now much more open and relaxed play from both sides.