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Aston Villa v Manchester United > Saturday 10th November

Aidymac

By Aidymac
in Premier League Predictions

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neilovan

neilovan

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Re: Aston Villa v Manchester United > Saturday 10th November Aston Villa vs Man United MATHS LESSON :wall >Bet365odds are 5/1 | 16/5 | 8/15 so you work out the probability of the outcomes .... Home win probability: 1 / 6 = 16.6% Draw probability: 1 / 4.2 = 23.8% Away win probability: 1 / 1.53 = 65.4% Man United : United are winning 82% of the time at odds of 1.6 or less away in 2012,2011. http://www.soccer-betbrain.com/team-1x2-statistics It's a small sample only 11 games. The bet365 odds of 8/15 suggest United should be winning 65%. SO United are over performing the bet365 expectations and price. Assume United don't play so great and Villa are a little bit better than expected . Lets take the middle ground of 82% and 65% = 147 / 2 for an average of 73.5% for the expected win by united. so what should the odds be to reflect this 73.5 % chance ? The calculation is 100/73.5 which gives us odds of 1.36 . SO bet365 are offering us 1.53 which is an excellent price for a Man United win. :ok Do a similar calculation for Aston Villa. The bookies think Villa will win this 16.6 % of the time. At odds of over 4-1 Villa are poor at home not winning a game in three seasons :eek MATHS CLASS OVER, :cheers :cheers NEIL.

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Jase82

Jase82

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It's a small sample only 11 games.
It should probably be noted that last season they were so back able at similar odds because they had a lot of ground to make up on City and were putting their all into a lot of away fixtures, and weren't approaching them complacently. I'd like to see what the average was over the previous five seasons, prior to 2011/12. United generally beat Villa though. It kind of goes hand in hand with breathing for them.
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Mustafa

Mustafa

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Re: Aston Villa v Manchester United > Saturday 10th November

United generally beat Villa though. It kind of goes hand in hand with breathing for them.
Without doing too much research I can say that Man.United haven't lost to Aston Villa since somewhere back in 80's if I am correct.
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neilovan

neilovan

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Re: Aston Villa v Manchester United > Saturday 10th November

It should probably be noted that last season they were so back able at similar odds because they had a lot of ground to make up on City and were putting their all into a lot of away fixtures, and weren't approaching them complacently. I'd like to see what the average was over the previous five seasons, prior to 2011/12. United generally beat Villa though. It kind of goes hand in hand with breathing for them.
For me there have been quiet a few personnel changes so I'm not sure I would read back further than 2011. Ah the bookies know their odds. Plus they have these actuary wizzz kids doing the maths. What chance do we have to beat these b____trds. :) I checked the stats (in 2010,2009,2008,2007,2006) United played 50 away games at odds of 1.6 or lower. They won , SUPRISE SUPRISE 33 times , or 66% of these games. 2010 played 7 won 3 2009 played 11 won 8 2008 played 10 won 8 2007 played 11 and won 7 2006 played 11 and won 7 2010 was a stinker for them , while in 2011 they played 10 times and won 8. Villa at home with odds of of 3.00 or higher have managed to win exactly 3 times in 17 tries. Weirdly enough against quality opposition every time (CHelsea 1-0, MAn City 1-0, Liverpool 1-0). They have drawn 6 times and been beaten 8 times. Three of the draws come against Man United. This fixture has a history of not producing goals. The OU25 is over 30% or 3 times in the last 10 fixtures. Neil.
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Suppish

Suppish

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Re: Aston Villa v Manchester United > Saturday 10th November

Without doing too much research I can say that Man.United haven't lost to Aston Villa since somewhere back in 80's if I am correct.
Villa won 1-0 at OT a few seasons back, Gabby Agbonlahor scored. That's the last home Prem game that Man Utd have failed to score in I think. Man Utd do have a supreme record though against Villa, and especially at Villa Park. VP is also a ground where they have won 2 FA Cup semi-finals against Arsenal including THAT Ryan Giggs goal. I think 1.61 is value for a Man Utd win but I just checked and the highest odds I can find is 1.54
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neilovan

neilovan

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Re: Aston Villa v Manchester United > Saturday 10th November

Aston Villa vs Man United The bookies think Villa will win this 16.6 % of the time. At odds of over 4-1 Villa are poor at home not winning a game in three seasons :eek
Was looking at bet365 and United to win to nil is 8/5. Villa are struggling to score goals, United have too much fire power. I don't think the result is in doubt. United are getting better defensively. Jonny Evans can only benefit from playing more games. I simply cannot see villa scoring, united probably to win it 2-0 (training ground exercise last 20 minutes) so I like the straight United win and the United to win to nil at 8/5 on bet365. Neil.
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PaulLawrie67

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Re: Aston Villa v Manchester United > Saturday 10th November

Does anyone really trust this united defence though? Benteke has looked pretty lively and I think he's the better of their Pre season buys.
Personally think United are a decent shout here as they surely will have too much for Villa. However, I am in agreement with Jase in that I don't fancy backing this United defence to keep a clean sheet against anyone. I don't particulary like "win to nil" bets as I feel one lapse in concentration can totally ruin your bet as early as the first minute, but given how this United side have shipped goals both domestically and in Europe this season I wouldnt be confident in backing them to keep a clean sheet.
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neilovan

neilovan

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Re: Aston Villa v Manchester United > Saturday 10th November

Personally think United are a decent shout here as they surely will have too much for Villa. However' date=' I am in agreement with Jase in that I don't fancy backing this United defence to keep a clean sheet against anyone. I don't particulary like "win to nil" bets as I feel one lapse in concentration can totally ruin your bet as early as the first minute, but given how this United side have shipped goals both domestically and in Europe this season I wouldnt be confident in backing them to keep a clean sheet.[/quote'] I'm just trying to find the best balance between odds and probability. I like united to win but the odds, even though better than the probability are still not great
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neilovan

neilovan

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Re: Aston Villa v Manchester United > Saturday 10th November

Does anyone really trust this united defence though? Benteke has looked pretty lively and I think he's the better of their Pre season buys.
I like to watch Man U, they play nice soccer. Fergie has done amazing things with average/good players. Is Darren Flechter excellent ? No, but the more he played the better he was getting. I think the same is happening with Jony Evans. He is coming out of the shadow of the Ferdinand/Vidic combination, and finding his own place in the sun. Scoring some goals, gaining confidence, understanding his role, and getting better all the time. They will get better and better defensively Villa just don't carry a goal threat. They have no pace. I can't see them scoring, and I see United scoring at least 2
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Reverand_bookmaker

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Re: Aston Villa v Manchester United > Saturday 10th November

Does anyone really trust this united defence though? Benteke has looked pretty lively and I think he's the better of their Pre season buys.
He probably is but he's far from amazing and i think the rest of their team is too weak to get a sniff. I can see this panning out the way the first 93.5 minutes of the arsenal game did, united comfortable and villa not getting near them. united to win to nil is good value if it can be found at 2/1.
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Reverand_bookmaker

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Re: Aston Villa v Manchester United > Saturday 10th November

I like to watch Man U, they play nice soccer. Fergie has done amazing things with average/good players. Is Darren Flechter excellent ? No, but the more he played the better he was getting. I think the same is happening with Jony Evans. He is coming out of the shadow of the Ferdinand/Vidic combination, and finding his own place in the sun. Scoring some goals, gaining confidence, understanding his role, and getting better all the time. They will get better and better defensively Villa just don't carry a goal threat. They have no pace. I can't see them scoring, and I see United scoring at least 2
I think Jonny Evans came well and truly out of Vidic'a shadow last season keeping 15 clean sheets with him in the team. When him and ferdinand got games together like they did between april and may last year they are a solid partnership and a big part of the reason why united almost one the league with 3 games to spare last season. Its very easy to criticise central defenders, ok evans has made a few mistakes this season but plenty of uniteds goals conceded have come from either Evras increasing liability, Fergies insistence at playing Valencia at right back particularly at the start of the season and playing carrick in the centre. Ferdinand cruised through the last half hour against Braga and can see him being solid on saturday, Evans might not play but smalling at least can come in so expecting a bit more from united defensively this weekend.
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kevshat

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Re: Aston Villa v Manchester United > Saturday 10th November 5pts Man Utd (-1AH) to beat Aston Villa 4/5 Bet365 I don’t like taking away sides at odds on in England but it’s hard to see United not winning this match and I not only expect them to win the match but think it could be quite comfortable too. Villa aren’t scoring too many at the minute and are conceding more than their fair share and that’s not a combination you want to look for when playing United. With the power United have in their attack I think they can run out easy winners. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/aston-villa-vs-man-utd-betting-man-utd-can-maintain-their-place-at-the-top-of-the-premier-league-table

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Hitch

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Re: Aston Villa v Manchester United > Saturday 10th November Manchester United to beat Aston Villa @ 1.51 (1 Unit) Betfair Manchester (-1.5 AH) @ 2.1 (0.5 unit) Betfair Won't add much other than the fact that the last time Aston Villa beat Man Utd was in 1995. Also, Manchester have already won away this season against the likes of Chelsea, Newcastle and Liverpool so I don't think it'll be that tough against a struggling Aston Villa side.

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Zacharael

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Re: Aston Villa v Manchester United > Saturday 10th November I'm jumping on same train with others here. Watched Aston Villa in last games and didn't really like what I've seen. Even tho' Manchester's defence is not one to trust, they got the quality to outscore Villa easily. I'll go with Manchester win from what I've seen from both sides lately. Pick: Away Win @ 1.50 - 6 Units

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saintg1

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Re: Aston Villa v Manchester United > Saturday 10th November

He probably is but he's far from amazing and i think the rest of their team is too weak to get a sniff. I can see this panning out the way the first 93.5 minutes of the arsenal game did' date=' united comfortable and villa not getting near them. united to win to nil is good value if it can be found at 2/1.[/quote'] Sportsbet.com.au is offering Man Utd to win to nil @2.65.
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hebert10

hebert10

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Re: Aston Villa v Manchester United > Saturday 10th November United: De Gea; Rafael, Ferdinand, Smalling, Evra; Valencia, Carrick, Scholes, Young; Rooney, van Persie. Subs: Lindegaard, Buttner, Cleverley, Anderson, Fletcher, Hernandez, Welbeck Villa: Guzan; Lowton, Vlaar, Clark, Stevens; Ireland, Westwood, Bannan; Weimann, Benteke, Agbonlahor. Subs: Given, El Ahmadi, Albrighton, Holman, Delph, Bowery, Williams Young to score anytime @ 7/2 Bluesquare Back in the team after injury setbacks and should be keen to show what he's got against his old club. With Nani's form wavering a bit he could be a breath of fresh air against this pretty weak Villa team. Great odds on Young as he should get set pieces aswel. Benteke to score anytime @ 7/2 Bluesquare I like Benteke he looks like he could be pretty key for Villa even at this early stage. He's managed to push a proven goalscorer in Bent out of the team and should give Ferdinand and Smalling plenty of problems. We've all seen united have made alot of mistakes defensively this season and with Smalling just back in the team he could take a bit to get in to the game.

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reddevil93

reddevil93

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Re: Aston Villa v Manchester United > Saturday 10th November Quick question guys... I have man united to win 2nd half with WH. Not sure if my bet went through or not ... can annyone confirm that ? I'm just not sure how this bet works, i know that they won the game but I'm not 100% wherever they won 2nd half according to WH. Cheers

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neilovan

neilovan

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Re: Aston Villa v Manchester United > Saturday 10th November

Quick question guys... I have man united to win 2nd half with WH. Not sure if my bet went through or not ... can annyone confirm that ? I'm just not sure how this bet works' date=' i know that they won the game but I'm not 100% wherever they won 2nd half according to WH. Cheers[/quote'] To win the second half they have to score more than their opponents , which they did, 3-1 so nice 1 :)
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reddevil93

reddevil93

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Re: Aston Villa v Manchester United > Saturday 10th November Not really mate. Villa scored their 2nd goal in 2nd half, then hernandez scored then there was an own goal for villa and then hernandez scored again. Which means that United scored 2 goals in 2nd half and so did aston villa. Really confused about this one.

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Jase82

Jase82

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Not really mate. Villa scored their 2nd goal in 2nd half' date=' then hernandez scored then there was an own goal for villa and then hernandez scored again. Which means that United scored 2 goals in 2nd half and so did aston villa. Really confused about this one.[/quote'] Villa scored before HT to make it 1-0. United won the 2nd half 3-1 as whether the goal was an OG is irrelevant as the bet is for United to win the 2nd half?
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