Datapunter Posted December 24, 2005 Author Share Posted December 24, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.45% ) Well no match on Gretna, was going for 1.15 but price dropped as low as 1.10 so let it go. 2005-12-26 14:00 Chelsea v Fulham 10 @ 1.23 already matched 2005-12-26 16:00 Celtic v Livingston 10 @ 1.19 2005-12-26 16:00 Man Utd v West Brom 10 @ 1.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 26, 2005 Author Share Posted December 26, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.45% ) price on Celtic went down to 1.14 so no bet there, Man Utd matched at 1.25 Chelsea a winner +2.185 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 26, 2005 Author Share Posted December 26, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.45% ) another winner with Man Utd + 2.375 Total staked 1005 Total returned 1076.431667 Yield 1.071076285 7.11% Winners 91 Losers 13 Strike Rate 88% Current bank 171.4316667 Profit/Loss +71.43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 28, 2005 Author Share Posted December 28, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) 2005-12-28 20:45 Arsenal v Portsmouth 10 @ 1.27 to take the bank to a new all-season high :hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 28, 2005 Author Share Posted December 28, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) actually managed to get matched at 1.28 :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 28, 2005 Author Share Posted December 28, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) Yet another winner +2.667 Profit at a new season high of +74.629 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 29, 2005 Author Share Posted December 29, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) Attention: New strategy for the new year ! I'm going to start posting potential matches almost as soon as i detect them, in many cases several days in advance. Now these will be POTENTIAL matches only taken from my odds comparison overview page: Hot Favourites upcoming matches I will then later post the matches i'm actually betting on with the price i'm actually getting. I may also start including some bookmakers as i have now found a way ( though a friend ) to use bookmaker accounts again. The big difference for me personally is that i'll be making my selections before reading Joe's and then see if we end up with the same thing. I still strongly recommend anyone to sign-up with Joe at www.1x2betting.co.uk . He has been running this system for several years and has proven season after season that what he does works. And if it aint broken... don't fix it. So sign-up and you get his selections by email usually 2 days in advance. POTENTIAL MATCHES ( prices are an indication only ! ) 2005-12-29 PSV v Twente @ 1.20 2005-12-29 Feyenoord v Willem II @ 1.16 2005-12-30 Alkmaar v Den Haag @ 1.24 2005-12-31 Chelsea v Birmingham @ 1.18 2005-12-31 Rangers v Dundee United @ 1.33 2005-12-31 Liverpool v West Brom @ 1.26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 29, 2005 Author Share Posted December 29, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) here goes: 2005-12-29 18:00 PSV v Twente 10 @ 1.22 2005-12-29 20:00 Feyenoord v Willem II 10 @ 1.19 2005-12-30 19:30 AZ Alkmaar v ADO Den Haag 10 @ 1.26 2005-12-31 14:00 Chelsea v Birmingham 10 @ 1.19 2005-12-31 15:00 Rangers v Dundee Utd 10 @ 1.34 Don't think i'll get matched on Feyenoord as its currently trading at 1.16 only. May look for an alternative at a bookie. All but Rangers also selected by Joe , as the average price is around 1.25 i'll have a bash at 1.34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 29, 2005 Author Share Posted December 29, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) forgot the time PSV kicks off, no match :wall Feyenoord still at 1.16 , nothing better at the bookies really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K'Ching Posted December 29, 2005 Share Posted December 29, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) forgot the time PSV kicks off, no match :wall Well, that was lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted December 29, 2005 Share Posted December 29, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) You dodged a bullet on psv, I tried to get on them too, but went for 1.24 but didn't get matched. Good luck on the rest, I'm with you on Feynoord took them at 1.17 btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 29, 2005 Author Share Posted December 29, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) Aye, just had a glance at livescore, lucky me again :loon didn't get Feyenoord matched as expected, did i mention its freezing over here, might have a bit of an influence :$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted December 29, 2005 Share Posted December 29, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) Lucky Boy there mate. PSV draw ended a run of 14 straight for me. Nice to see Feyenoord have done the biz though, 6-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 30, 2005 Author Share Posted December 30, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) Just noticed i left out Liverpool, average around 1.22 , not yet picked by Joe, but there is still time.... ;) 2005-12-31 16:00 Liverpool v West Brom 10 @ 1.26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 30, 2005 Author Share Posted December 30, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) got a question today: i was just wondering if you had any idea how your tips would pan out(meaning your previous selections), if i was to use each weeks selections as accumulators. nope i don't know, there is a spreadsheet some posts back with last seasons selections you can have a go at that and try out a few things. The problem is that the profit on this system comes from getting a top price. To do that you need to use Betfair and a range of bookies. The minute you use different bookies accumulators are no longer possible. And if you do stick to one bookie then you'll have to put up with lower prices and that will eat away the profit. Another thing to remember is this: I HAVE BEEN LUCKY SO FAR THIS SEASON. Just typed that in capital letters to remind myself. I'm showing a yield of +7% where i actually expect about 4% . So i've been lucky to have missed out on a few losers. If you include the losers i've missed into accumulators then that will bring down your strike rate. So overall i don't think there will be an advantage. I'll stick up the spreadsheet with this seasons bets next week and you can have a bit of fun with it. :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted December 30, 2005 Share Posted December 30, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) A question if I may, I notice on your site you colour code the difference in odds, some are yellow, some or light blue. Does this have any meaning ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk Enchance Posted December 30, 2005 Share Posted December 30, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) You seem to have developed a knack for dodging bullets this season DP :) I think light blue means a greater than 0.05 difference in price between the average and the best price fools..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 31, 2005 Author Share Posted December 31, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) Chelsea matched @ 1.18 Liverpool matched @ 1.25 Rangers matched @ 1.33 ( price went all the way up to 1.40 :loon ) The color don't really mean anything, just means small difference and bigger difference between average price and top price. I intended for the color to indicate a level of value but tried all sorts of variations and it just doen't work. I'll probably remove it in the next version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted January 2, 2006 Share Posted January 2, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) Surprised you don't like Gretna at home to Ayr ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 2, 2006 Share Posted January 2, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) ..... this one's been tipped by Joe, available at Interwetten at 1.35 or it was! I took 1.22 with Betfair so we will see how it goes.Also think that Morecambe look good at 1.44 to take Stockport County.Cheers.;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 2, 2006 Author Share Posted January 2, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) I wanted to wait and see how prices went with Gretna, going for it now as average is about 1.23 and currently 1.29 is available at Betfair, seems 1.35 is still available at Interwetten but don't know the stake limit. 2006-01-02 16:00 Gretna v Ayr 10 @ 1.30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 2, 2006 Author Share Posted January 2, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) that took all of 10 min to get matched :lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 2, 2006 Author Share Posted January 2, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) Right, time to have a good look where we're at: Chelsea +1.7145 Liverpool +2.3813 Rangers +3.1433 Gretna +2.8575 Total staked 1055 Total returned 1139.72525 Yield 1.080308294 8.03% Winners 96 Losers 13 Strike Rate 88% Current bank 184.72525 Profit/Loss +84.72525 And this seasons spreadsheet so far:conv_52.xls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 2, 2006 Author Share Posted January 2, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) Now i've tweeked the numbers a bit so that each staking method ends up with about the same amount total staked. Surprisingly for me its fixed profits that produces most profit for the same amount total staked. Not too much difference in the staking as expected but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 2, 2006 Author Share Posted January 2, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) Now forget about level stakes for a moment, had a look at increasing the stake as the bank grows, so: set fixed profits so each bet produces a profit of 2.2% of the current bank set percentile bank to stake 10% of the current bank on each bet set plateau staking to recalculate to 10% with the bank growing by 25 points all 3 then stake a total of about 1500 points, and the profit is: fixed profit at 2.2% = +147 percentile bank = +129 plateau = +132 again fixed profits come out on top :loon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted January 2, 2006 Share Posted January 2, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) Damn it DP:lol. I was put off fixed profits last year when your data showed it to be the worst - what do you think has changed? I'm all confused again:unsure . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 2, 2006 Author Share Posted January 2, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) YOU are confused, what about ME :unsure :lol just shows no matter how much homework you do, it never quite goes the way you expect does it. right, i've put last seasons record in the same spreadsheet: set fixed profits so each bet produces a profit of 2.5% of the current bank set percentile bank to stake 10% of the current bank on each bet set plateau staking to recalculate to 10% with the bank growing by 25 points all 3 then stake a total of about 4150 points (253 bets), and the profit is: fixed profit at 2.5% = +93 percentile bank = +160 plateau = +188 so what is the difference ? - last seasons yield was 4%, this season i'm up to 8% - last season the bank was below 100 for quite some time, ( about 70 bets ) - last season i seem to have had more bets at lower odds, average odds went up from 1.20 to 1.24 - i had 1 loser at odds of 1.06 (bet 32) and one at 1.08 where i lost a major stake, so when i look at fixed profit but max.stake 25% of bank the result is: last season, 253 bets, fixed profit at 2.17% = +124 ( 2.17% because then all 3 stake a total of about 4150 ) NOW I REMEMBER, :lol A major factor that made me choose plateau staking was how much influence a single bet can have on the system overall. If you go for fixed profits and you get 1 or 2 short priced losers you are ****ed because you lose a big chunk of the bank. Go for percentile bank and start with a few losers and you could struggle for a long time. Still, good to have a look every now and then, hmmm, what to do ? I think i'll continue as i've been doing for another 50 bets or so and then have another look. But i'm open to suggestions :tongue2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 2, 2006 Author Share Posted January 2, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) For this season, look at bet 39, odds of 1.05 2005-10-08 20:00 Bosnia v San Marino imagine it lost, with a stake of max. 25% of the bank thats 30 points gone, would have brought the whole thing down from 145 to 83 points profit. Percentile bank would lose 24 points, plateau stake would lose 11 points. From an investors point of view its waaaaay too much influence for 1 bet. Right, i'm sticking to plateau :clap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 2, 2006 Share Posted January 2, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) With the version of plateau staking you're using, do you also recalculate the stake if the bank drops by some amount? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 2, 2006 Author Share Posted January 2, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.11% ) No i don't, once its up it stays up. But only because i expect a positive yield. And thats a good point as it needs to be considered in the comparison. So, plateau, level stake of 10% of the bank, recalculate each time the bank grows with 25 points: this season without ever going back to a lower stake: +132 this season with going back to a lower stake: +124 but i must mention it has been a good steady season, only had to go back once and that was for only 8 bets last season without ever going back to a lower stake: +188 last season with going back to a lower stake: +171 last season i did have to go back to a lower stake a few times but in the end not such a great difference. By the end of the season at bet 225 the stake was up to 32.5 points and the bank down to 223 , so thats a stake of 14.5% of the bank. I can accept that but no higher so i should look out for that :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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