-Loki- Posted November 28, 2005 Share Posted November 28, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.28% ) Excellent work, whats your target:ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted November 28, 2005 Author Share Posted November 28, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.28% ) thanks [loki], the target is.... as much as possible :lol Don't have a target, but i do have an expectation for the season : number of bets about 250 strike rate around 88% yield about 4% with a starting bank of 100 staking 10 per match that should double the bank in a season. And i'll be quite happy with that. One more for tonight: 2005-11-28 20:30 Stenhousemuir v E Stirling 10 @ 1.21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted November 28, 2005 Author Share Posted November 28, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.28% ) Stenhousemuir matched at 1.20 Price on Olympiacos has gone down to 1.21 , so i'm leaving that as it is with 1/3 of the stake matched at 1.27. ( well thats to say i'll keep my fingers crossed but i don't expect the price to go back up to 1.27 :lol ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted November 28, 2005 Author Share Posted November 28, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.28% ) FTStenhousemuir [3 - 2] East Stirling6'[1 - 0]J. Mercer 8'[2 - 0]T. Sinclair 22'P. McGrillen 38'[2 - 1]A. Owen 45'G. Denham 57'[2 - 2]S. Dymock 71'[3 - 2]C. Cramb Copyright © 1998-2005 LiveScore.com must have been quite a game :loon anyhow, Olympiacos +0.855 Stenhousemuir +1.9 profit at +53.527 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neg8 Posted November 29, 2005 Share Posted November 29, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.28% ) hey hey mr. datapunter. in this system you are about +53. guess you are recalculating the stake size every now and then when involving real money? how when and why is this done? btw. love your "hotfavupcomingOFF.jsp". when is the next release/upgrade? oh and it used to display the betsite when hoovering the mouse over the average odds before, seems that one is removed/broken. cheers /8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted November 29, 2005 Author Share Posted November 29, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.28% ) hey hey mr. neg8 guess you are recalculating the stake size every now and then when involving real money? how when and why is this done? Normally i would have by now but the season has been a bit weird so i've kept my stake level at 10 points. I'm keeping this thread going at 10 points level stakes as that is most common, ( and SAFE , just looking out for newcomers ) personally i'm now increasing my stake to 12,5 and will probably increase again when the profit hits 75 and 100 points. This is very much a matter of personal preference, by increasing the stake after having some profit you can increase the profit. But if things go wrong you also go down a lot faster. btw. love your "hotfavupcomingOFF.jsp". when is the next release/upgrade?Upcoming Matches Overview page yes, the programming is holding its own: been running non-stop for 3 weeks now, every now and then a small bug pops up and i update competition and team names weekly as the bookies are terrible at spelling. I'm using it to make a short-list of possible selections and then check using other odds-comparison sites. As its 'usable' i'm now working on some horse racing stuff. Will come back to this end of the year. There are 2 things i'll be looking at first: - create the possibility to select a range of competitions rather than all matches. - create queries so the matches can be ordered by date, price, teamnames, competition, rather than just kickofftime. oh and it used to display the betsite when hoovering the mouse over the average odds before, seems that one is removed/brokenremoved that, when you click on the teams you get a page specific to that match with all that info. Includes 1X2 odds, howlong the price has been available, average and who's under and over the average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neg8 Posted November 29, 2005 Share Posted November 29, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.28% ) hey hey again mr. datapunter. thanks for the fast reply :) This is very much a matter of personal preference, by increasing the stake after having some profit you can increase the profit. But if things go wrong you also go down a lot faster. true true. but closing you eyes and then opening them with the stake set to 10% of the new bigger bank would be like starting from zero at the system but with a bigger start bank. ofc it would be a sad thing if the system busts itself after increasing the stakes. Just meant that if the system is supposed to survive and dont bust at day 1 then it wouldnt do that after the increase since its a new day 1. anyway been following yours and joes picks lately, = got that pdf. interesting. might try it out. think i would go for a pretty large startbank with stake @ 5% and then increase every 12,5% or 25%. removed that, when you click on the teams you get a page specific to that match with all that info thanks for pointing it out. never tried to click em . :) /8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted November 29, 2005 Author Share Posted November 29, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.28% ) couple of things i found in my email, is it better (in the long run) to try and get odds early or just wait,who can say ? There is no definite answer. If you can get a really good price early at the bookies then take it. If you are looking at Betfair simply take your chances. I've seen prices rise after i thought i had gotten a good price and i've seen them drop drastically before getting matched. And i've seen them go up and down like a yoyo. Its all part of the game. I think most important thing is to be disciplined and only bet if the price truly is above average. In the long term that is where the profit comes from. What about waiting for a match to go in-running and thus get a better priceI have thought about this but not done any research. First drawback is obviously you need to be on-line when the match happens. That limits the selections as its not always possible. Second you need in-running matches, again a limit on the number of selections. In the end i don't think there is an advantage waiting in-running to get a good price. If there is no value in the price before then there won't be any in-running either. Sure the price rises as the match progresses, but then there is also less time to score a goal. The more time passes without a goal being scored by the favourite the more chance the underdog has of not losing, its reflected in the movement of the odds. So no value before = no value in-running. Doesn't mean you can't have a go every now and then like i have done a few times, just remember you are bending the rules of the system. Its not the system itself. And an early goal will leave you with empty hands :\ You could try it as a system on its own but i don't know what to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted November 30, 2005 Share Posted November 30, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.28% ) I'm still with you on this one DP. This is the longest I've ever stuck with a system. my profit at the moment is +57 points with level stakes of 10pts per bet. My routine is to assess the required price, place it on betfair and leave it to be matched or not. I try not to be too dissappointed if it is missed but I think if I can get my 10 points in there early enough then it has a reasonable chance of being matched. I try not to become involved in the bets either, rather I just place them then forget all about them until the game is over. This method has served me very well up until now because I feel if I become too involved, I will make stupid spur of the moment bets trying to recoup any losses. I have trained myself to trust and believe that the system will recoup any losses eventually. I think of it as a business now - part time work, not a hobby. Long may it prevail. And good luck to all on this system. Alex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 2, 2005 Author Share Posted December 2, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.28% ) alex, good to hear mate, that sounds like a pretty solid method, and the +57 says it all. Good for you, keep it up. And we're off for the weekend: 2005-12-03 15:30 W Bremen v Duisburg 10 @ 1.29 matched 2005-12-03 16:00 Hearts v Livingston 10 @ 1.30 2005-12-03 16:00 Gretna v Peterhead 10 @ 1.31 2005-12-03 18:15 Man Utd v Portsmouth 10 @ 1.27 2005-12-03 20:00 PSV v Breda 10 @ 1.26 2005-12-03 20:00 Club Brugge v GBA 10 @ 1.26 (50% matched) 2005-12-03 20:00 Standard v Roeselare 10 @ 1.31 (40% matched) 2005-12-03 20:30 Inter v Ascoli 10 @ 1.26 not selected by Joe, so on my own head it be... 2005-12-03 16:00 Chelsea v Middlesbrough 10 @ 1.31 going for some sharp prices, should get everything matched :hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 3, 2005 Author Share Posted December 3, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.28% ) Hearts matched at 1.26 Gretna matched at 1.31 Chelsea matched at 1.30 Man Utd should get matched, PSV, Club Brugge, Standard, may get matched, :hope Inter Milan has dropped to 1.21 so that will be no bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 3, 2005 Author Share Posted December 3, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.28% ) Man Utd. i ****ed up on the price, didn't get matched before the match, took it in-running, after 10 min still no joy, ended up taking 1.23. Should have been more disciplined and gotten 1.25 . Still there 3-0 up with only a few minutes to play :D Club Brugge stayed at 1.22 so left that 1/2 stake matched at 1.26 Standard got matched at 1.30 PSV i got at 1.24 Milan still at 1.21 / 1.22 half hour before kickoff, probably no bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 3, 2005 Author Share Posted December 3, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.28% ) Well after 22 consecutive winners Standard Luik brings the winning streak to an end. Still 7 points profit on the weekend. Bremen +2.755 Chelsea +2.85 Hearts +2.47 Gretna +2.945 MAn Utd. +2.185 PSV +2.28 Standard -10 Club Brugge +1.235 Total staked 895 Total returned 955.2466667 Yield 1.067314711 6.73% Winners 81 Losers 12 Strike Rate 87% Current bank 160.2466667 Profit/Loss 60.24666667 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted December 3, 2005 Share Posted December 3, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.28% ) Another good weeks work DP, for soem reason the only one of your tips I didn't follow was Standard. Not because I had any doubts about them, but the baby started crying and I had to leave the PC. dodged a bullet there. This is a must view thread for me every week. I'm doing something vaguley the same, using your spreadsheet and Joes book, after 343 bets to date, I have 71% strike rate, with average odds of 1.521 and a yield of 4.67%. Started with a 10 unit bankroll, 10% stakes, doubled stales at 20 units. currently have 28.43 units. I think it's possible that with 700 bets over the season I could hit 50 units at the end of the year. So thanks a lot. keep up the good work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 3, 2005 Author Share Posted December 3, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.28% ) but the baby started crying and I had to leave the PC :clap WOW, 5 days old and already he picks the one loser from 9 selections , that's some sports-bettor you've got there, well done. :lol Good to hear you're doing ok, looking at 5x times your bank in a season, way to go :ok P.S. You should sign-up at Joe's, he usually sends out his email a day before i post and we rarely end up with different selections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted December 10, 2005 Share Posted December 10, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.28% ) you got any thoughts for this week eric ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 10, 2005 Author Share Posted December 10, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.28% ) 2005-12-10 16:00 Chelsea v Wigan 10 @ 1.24 matched, ( got an early price on Chelsea, now available at 1.22 ) 2005-12-11 15:00 Juventus v Cagliari 10 @ 1.23 2005-12-11 17:30 B Munich v Kaiserslautern 10 @ 1.21 ( prices not great at Betfair on these 2, may take a price at a bookie ) I'm also looking at Olympiacos but not sure yet : 2005-12-12 20:00 Olympiacos v Larissa 10 @ 1.24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 11, 2005 Author Share Posted December 11, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.28% ) I've set Juventus @ 1.22 ( currently available at 1.20 ) and Munich @ 1.20 ( currently available @ 1.18 ) but i'll be busy and then gotta leave the house, so won't know until afterwards if its a bet or not. :hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 16, 2005 Author Share Posted December 16, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.28% ) Juventus and Munich didn't get matched as expected. Chelsea a winner +2.28 this weekend 2005-12-17 15:30 Olympiacos v Levadiakos 10 @ 1.14 2005-12-17 18:00 Fenerbahce v Denizlispor 10 @ 1.22 2005-12-17 18:00 AEK v Kalamaria 10 @ 1.22 2005-12-17 19:30 PSV v Willem II 10 @ 1.19 2005-12-17 22:15 Porto v Penafiel 10 @ 1.21 2005-12-18 15:00 AC Milan v Messina 10 @ 1.25 prices for some of these aren't looking good but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 17, 2005 Author Share Posted December 17, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.28% ) Olympiacos no match, Fenerbache and PSV i doubt will get matched at that price, AEK 2/3 matched, Porto matched completely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 17, 2005 Author Share Posted December 17, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.28% ) matched Fenerbache @ 1.19 AEK @ 1.21 Milan @ 1.22 very marginal prices here, only just above average. PSV currently at 1.15 , can't see that go up much more, probably no bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 17, 2005 Author Share Posted December 17, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.28% ) PSV no bet, Fenerbahce +1.805 AEK +1.995 Porto +1.995 Profit at +68 Milan to come tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 18, 2005 Author Share Posted December 18, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.28% ) Pfff, and another winner, Milan +2.09 , getting boring ain't it :lol Total staked 945 Total returned 1015.411667 Yield 1.0745097 7.45% Winners 86 Losers 12 Strike Rate 88% Current bank 170.4116667 Profit/Loss 70.41166667 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 20, 2005 Author Share Posted December 20, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.45% ) Apparently the 'spiders' on my site that collect the odds have been down for 2 days. Without me noticing :unsure , got some debugging to do then :lol Sorry to be a bit late but for tonight we have: 2005-12-20 21:00 Barcelona v Celta Vigo 10 @ 1.26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 20, 2005 Author Share Posted December 20, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.45% ) yet another winner, Barcelona +2.47 tomorrow got my eye on: 2005-12-21 20:00 Real Madrid v Santander 10 @ 1.32 2005-12-21 20:30 Inter v Empoli 10 @ 1.22 2005-12-21 20:30 Juventus v Siena 10 @ 1.20 prices aren't looking too good but we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted December 20, 2005 Share Posted December 20, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.45% ) I agreee on all three for tomorrow, I also had Barca tonight, but I had Sporting Lisbon as well though. I thought they might have made it onto your list ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 21, 2005 Author Share Posted December 21, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.45% ) Real matched at 1.30 Juventus matched at 1.20 Inter waiting to be matched at 1.20 any moment now, should be ok, will take 1.19 possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 21, 2005 Author Share Posted December 21, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.45% ) small setback with Real losing, Real -10 Inter +2.09 Juventus + 1.90 profit at +66.872 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted December 22, 2005 Share Posted December 22, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.45% ) .... still a good record Datapunter, some say you can't win em all! Been following your thread with interest and much respect, most things always look sound.Anything hit your eye for the 26th yet? Good luck with future bets.;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 23, 2005 Author Share Posted December 23, 2005 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +7.45% ) Thanks Merlin, just a quicky for now ( i'm dealing with a major toothace :wall driving me nuts, still, betting must go on ) looking at : Gretna, Chelsea, ManUnited, Celtic. prices tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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