Datapunter Posted January 11, 2006 Author Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.40% ) :lol @ slapdash, explain that one again at Sandown mate, i'm sure i'll get it after a few :beer Merlin, i will get back to you on the price range. Meanwhilst, i'm having a go at Livingston 10 @ 1.18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.40% ) .... interesting point you make there Slapdash, the stats you quoted speak for themselves.Must admit though I am still to be convinced that using these low odds is for the best.;) Noted your comments DP, thanks.;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.40% ) I think I see the problem - 20% of the bank is the optimum staking plan to grow the pot which is great for individual matches - the problem is that most of the matches kick off at the same time and last weekend was a prime example - therefore it's not possible to adjust the bank 20% for each individual bet - which brings the bankruptcy into context that DP is talking about. Would a solution be to assume a loss and bet 20% on the first match and say 18% on the 2nd and 16% on the 3rd ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.40% ) Would a solution be to assume a loss and bet 20% on the first match and say 18% on the 2nd and 16% on the 3rd ? I've never actually advocated betting 20%, by the way. I think I mentioned "practical problems", and this is one of them. The problem with what you suggest is that it puts more weight on the "first" match. If you're going to be staking a given maximum, and if you don't have any reason to prefer one match over the others, the best thing in terms of getting the bank to increase at the maximum rate is to divide the stake equally. I think I mentioned a numerical experiment I did, that suggested that at these low odds, if staking the "optimal" amount for each individual match would use up your whole bank, then it was still "optimal to use almost your entire bank. I don't remember exactly, but if you had five matches at odds of 1.20 with an expected yield of 4%, so the "optimal" amount on an individual match would be 20% of your bank (which would use up all your bank if you staked 20% on all five), it was still optimal to use something like 97% of your bank split equally between the five matches if they took place simultaneously. Another solution, not applicable if you're betting on Betfair or with different bookmakers, is to put some of the bets in doubles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.40% ) Hi Slapdash, I understood what you are saying as we were talking in the context of reducing the plateau stake system when a team lost and percentile staking does this. If I understand correctly DP's main concern to the optimal 20% percentile was going bankrupt. You mentioned "practical problems" and that you didn't advocate 20% percentile stakes - so where does this leave us with the kelly formula ? I don't mean this to sound sarcastic as I am genuinely interested because as the stake to return and yield is low anything to optimise the stakes and increase the profits would be of benefit. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.40% ) Meanwhilst, i'm having a go at Livingston 10 @ 1.18 You mean Alloa? :hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.40% ) :@ :@ Would have been better off with Alloa another shocking cup result:wall :wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.40% ) You mentioned "practical problems" and that you didn't advocate 20% percentile stakes - so where does this leave us with the kelly formula? The main practical problem I had on mind was this: The principal difficulty in applying the Kelly formula in practice is that you don't know what the expected yield is. You can only estimate it. If your estimate is too low, then you will stake less than the "optimum", but your bank will still grow (more slowly), but if your estimate is too high, then your stake will be higher than the "optimum", and if it is too high then your bank will actually decrease in the long term. So it is more prudent to err on the side of underestimating your expected yield. Also, with a system like this, you can't be confident that the system will continue to work as well in the future. As DP said, the yield of the system may decrease because of changes in the way bookmakers compile their odds, the rules of the game, the style of play ... Then if you are erring on the side of staking too low a percentage, you have a chance of noticing these changes and adjusting for them before you have lost a large proportion of your bank. Other practical problems: The problem we've seen of having to bet on too many teams at once. This is even more of a problem if you're betting with bookmakers several days before the matches to make sure of getting the best price before it gets cut, so you have to tie up your money for several days. Especially if you're also using the same betting bank for other betting opportunities. This again only applies if you are betting at several different bookmakers to get the best odds. If you are staking 20% of your bank on each bet, you have the problem of moving lots of money between your various bookies' accounts at short notice. If you bet the "optimal" amount on each bet, then there will be larger swings (up and down) in the size of your bank along the way, although in the long run it will grow faster. You may not like this from a psychological point of view. Since you are betting larger amounts, then you will more quickly run into the problem of bookmakers' limits (or the difficulty of getting larger amounts matched on Betfair). If you are able to bet all you want on some bets, but not on others, then that adds extra variance to your results. And you have to worry that maybe if it's easier to get money on a particular bet, then that's evidence that it might not be such a good bet as the ones you find it harder to get money on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jay68 Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.40% ) Another shafting tonight:wall Livingston Surely cup games cannot be good for this system. If teams have other priorities then weakened teams are fielded as we all know. Is this reflected in the price? I know quality should always show through in the end but cup games will always bring out that little bit extra - especially from the underdogs who have something prove against the superstars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 12, 2006 Author Share Posted January 12, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.40% ) :@ Dear reader of this thread,This is to let you know that this thread is now closed until further notice. The reason for this is because the owner, Mr. Datapunter, is now officially pissed off. I can only express my deepest sympathy and hope he shall recover soon.Yours sincerely, Mr. Datapunter's Betting Bank Manager. :sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 12, 2006 Share Posted January 12, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.40% ) ..... Dear Mr.Datapunter's Bank Manager :- May I say at the onset how sorry we the Datapunter Supporters Club were to hear of your client's current lack of morale situation. We fully realise that betting transactions can and do, go wrong every so often, and can lead to irregular behavioural problems.We would therefore quote a few lines from an old Sinatra song,it goes something like this, "Once there was a silly old ant,tried to move a rubber tree plant,everyone knows an ant can't move a rubber tree plant, but he's got high hopes,he's got high hopes"........... and so there is a lesson to be learned here. Please inform your client that we are 100% behind his inner feelings, but he will NEVER walk alone.Can you therefore urge him to return to the ring, the fight is not over until the final bell. By keeping the gloves off, the situation can never be rectified.One final thought to be passed on, onward and upward my friend ...... and besides...... we like reading this thread! Yours in sympathy, Merlin (Self appointed Chief sympathiser) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 13, 2006 Author Share Posted January 13, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.40% ) At the bookies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 13, 2006 Author Share Posted January 13, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.40% ) :lol Ah well, at least we're having some fun. Thank you so much for your kind words, My betting Bank Manager has quite accurately pointed out that i am actualy still in profit. So even thou the bank has suffered a somewhat painfull set-back i have no doubt the season will end with a healthy profit. So where were we... Celtic -10 Fulham -10 Sunderland +2.375 Man. United -10 Milan +2.185 Livingston -10 a grand total of... Total staked 1185 Total returned 1222.366667 Yield 1.031533052 3.15% Winners 103 Losers 19 Strike Rate 84% Current bank 137.3666667 Profit/Loss +37.36666667 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 13, 2006 Author Share Posted January 13, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.40% ) Doesn't really look all that bad does it.... So lets get on with it: 2006-01-14 16:00 Celtic v Kilmarnock 10 @ 1.29 2006-01-15 15:00 Inter v Cagliari 10 @ 1.22 2006-01-15 15:00 Juventus v Reggina 10 @ 1.19 2006-01-15 17:00 Sunderland v Chelsea 10 @ 1.25 2006-01-15 19:00 Barcelona v Ath Bilbao 10 @ 1.24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LebaBezMotike Posted January 13, 2006 Share Posted January 13, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.15% ) Glad to see you're back DP :clap P.S. Avoid CUP matches :rollin no... seriously!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 13, 2006 Share Posted January 13, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.15% ) Time to kick some bookies butts and get that graph above the trend line :loon Celtic always scare me - but the others looked nailed on for a good recovery :hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 13, 2006 Share Posted January 13, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.15% ) I think Joe agrees with you, Kanga: Celtic will be omitted a) because 1.25 is not a lot better than current average of 1.23 and b) because I hate them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jay68 Posted January 14, 2006 Share Posted January 14, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.15% ) With you all the way chaps. But i've included Celtic got 1.28 at betfair earlier in the week. Hopefully Mr keane will have opened his big mouth and over that shambles last week. But i dare say there would not have been anything left to say after Strachen had ago. Would have loved to have been a fly on the wall. Good luck All! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 14, 2006 Share Posted January 14, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.15% ) I'm on all them too 'cept Chelsea cos I don't do away games me. Good luck all. :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 14, 2006 Author Share Posted January 14, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.15% ) I'm dropping Celtic, price down to 1.25 with average 1.23 so no value to be had. And i'm adding: 2006-01-15 19:45 Benfica v Academica 10 @ 1.30 already matched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 15, 2006 Author Share Posted January 15, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.15% ) Matched Chelsea @ 1.25 Juventus @ 1.19 Inter @ 1.22 Benfica @ 1.30 Barcelona still to be matched, going for 1.23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 15, 2006 Share Posted January 15, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.15% ) .... some good prices you got there DP, must be gona be your day!:ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 15, 2006 Author Share Posted January 15, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.15% ) Barcelona not matched, price dropped to 1.18, about average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 15, 2006 Author Share Posted January 15, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.15% ) well 4 winners, not bad. Inter + 2.09 Juventus + 1.805 Chelsea + 2.375 Benfica + 2.85 Total staked 1225 Total returned 1271.486667 Yield 1.037948299 3.79% Winners 107 Losers 19 Strike Rate 85% Current bank 146.4866667 Profit/Loss +46.48666667 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 17, 2006 Author Share Posted January 17, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.79% ) Potentials... 2006-01-17 19:45 Birmingham v Torquay 1.210 England FA Cup 2006-01-17 19:45 Middlesbrough v Nuneaton 1.170 England FA Cup 2006-01-18 18:00 Alkmaar v Den Haag 1.260 Dutch First Division 2006-01-18 19:30 Milan v Ascoli 1.200 Italian First Division 2006-01-18 20:00 Man. United v Burton 1.060 England FA Cup 2006-01-21 15:00 Rangers v Livingston 1.180 Scottish Premier League 2006-01-21 21:00 Real Madrid v Cadiz 1.260 Spanish First Division 2006-01-22 13:30 Chelsea v Charlton 1.220 English Premiership 2006-01-22 18:00 Barcelona v Alavacos 1.200 Spanish First Division 2006-01-24 19:30 Bayern v Mainz 1.200 German Bundesliga As usual, these early prices are an indication only ! Well, i've had it with the FA cup for a bit :\ so no bets for me today, but i'll probably go for Alkmaar and Milan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 17, 2006 Share Posted January 17, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.79% ) .... wise move DP, and Joe goes for those two selections also.;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 18, 2006 Author Share Posted January 18, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.79% ) here we go then 2006-01-18 20:00 AZ Alkmaar v ADO Den Haag 10 @ 1.25 ( average 1.21 seems to be dropping ) 2006-01-18 20:30 AC Milan v Ascoli 10 @ 1.21 ( average 1.15 ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 18, 2006 Author Share Posted January 18, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.79% ) Couple more potentials for the weekend 2006-01-21 19:00 Anderlecht v Cercle Brugge 1.250 Belgian First Division 2006-01-21 21:15 Porto v Naval 1.180 Portuguese SuperLiga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyR Posted January 18, 2006 Share Posted January 18, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.79% ) Hi Eric, The AZ Alkmaar game is IN PLAY on Betfair, so if you don't get matched perhaps you could get 1.25 or better after 7pm GMT. The Real Madrid game is also IN PLAY if you find yourself on the web late at night this weekend. This could in fact be a better tactic, and worth a try ;) Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 18, 2006 Author Share Posted January 18, 2006 Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +3.79% ) thanks AndyR, Sometimes when the price drops below the level i want i'll wait and see if i can get my minimal price in-running. But it's more an exception than a rule. Price on Alkmaar dropping, i'm letting it ride on 1.23 Price on Milan also dropping and letting that ride on 1.21 Gotta leave now, so won't know until afterwards if i'm matched or not :hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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