Group A > Oct 24 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG)

[Sir Puntalot]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Dinamo Zagreb v Paris Saint-Germain (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.57[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.55 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FC Porto v Dynamo Kyiv (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.72[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.85[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6.1[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.26 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Capone07]

Re: Group A > Oct 24 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG) Im from Croatia, and believe me when i tell you PSG will beat Dinamo Zagreb! the only question is what will the diference be. Dinamo is playing champions league second year in a row, last year they lost all 6 games with goal difference 3-22 and two of those 3 they scored to Real Madrid when the spanish team was already winning 6-0. This year Dinamo sold their key player Badelj to HSV for 4 million euros and bought no one spectacular. They are still dominant in their domestic league but croatian first division is nowhere near as good as other european leagues. PSG is not very good either, bought many new players and they simply cant fit in that quickly. Tomorow PSG will miss some standard players from their squad: Sissoko Bodmer Lavezzi Motta Lugano Chantome and Sakho. The reason why i think PSG will win is because Dinamo has a very weak midfield, Brozovic and Kovacic are very young (18 and 19 ) and Callelo isnt playing many matches and is out of form. Dinamos attack is also weak and only their defence is their best part of the team with Tonel(31) and Simunic (35) very slow and old players. PSG have a long bench and anyone who comes on will give their best to win a place in the starting lineup so mi pick for this game is PSG AH -1,5 at 2,60 bet265 stake 10/10 !!!!

[Fedar]

Re: Group A > Oct 24 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG) Porto AH -1 @ 1.95 (bet365) Dynamo's away performance in all competitions has been abysmal this season. In fact, the overall performance of the team has been well below their standards. They lost at home to Metalist during the weekend, they are on a losing streak of four consecutive away games, three of which they lost by a handicap, and overall this season they lost 5 out of 9 away games. It is more interesting that any away game against a top side, Dynamo got trashed - 3-1 and 4-1 in Donetsk, and 4-1 against PSG. Porto, on the other hand, are in a wonderful shape. This team tends to show some cyclical pattern in their performance in Europe, whereas once every two years they tend to shine, and after unconvincing performance in the group stage last year, the current flying start indicates that this is going to be promising year for the dragons. Porto is on a great winning streak at home in their league - they won 14 out of their last 15 home games in Liga Sagres (lol - impressive)! Porto has too much resource in the moment for Dynamo to handle, despite Hulk's departure. In attack, they have a new shining star - Colombian forward Jackson Martinez, who together with established goal-scorers like his countryman Jackson Martinez and Varela form a formidable threat. Pay also special attention to young Ghanaian winger Atsu - amazingly skillful player and a huge pain for defenders, although he usually plays as a substitute. The midfield of Porto is also a highest class - directed by maestro Joao Moutinho, assisted by Argentinian veteran Lucio Gonzalez and Belgian international Defour. Additionally, Porto should be much fresher than their opponents - they played on Sunday against amateur team for the Portuguese cup, so practically their last fixture was before the international break. While Dynamo in the same time had heavy and exhausting derby which they lost to Metalist. The only risk I see here is that Dynamo will be very closed as they will be happy with a draw. However, I don't think that they could withstand Porto for a long time, given the potency of the dragon's attack and the great mobility and skill of their midfield. This should be a comfortable 2 or 3 to nil win for the host team.

[atvet]

Re: Group A > Oct 24 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG) Hard evening for Dynamo's defence line. Porto has so powerful attack.

[Deniz]

Re: Group A > Oct 24 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG) I remeber a game Porto lost against Rio. Now questions : (Ofcourse these matches arenot same but may help to clear a bet idea) At that day I bet on Both Teams Not To Score. I won but the result was funny. I thought Rio couldnt score :D But reality Porto couldnt. I dunno how Rio played to stop Porto. Sometimes other teams watch rival's last matches and try to duplicate best tactics that may work against stronger teams. Is it possible that Dynamo can handle Porto? Porto has 6 points and possible to add 3 points more to guarantee next step in 3 matches. And Kiev another canditate for qualify from this group.Who knows. 3 points from Zagrep not a miracle but might put an idea of why not qualify or try that possibility. This match will be that match to be considered by Dynamo. If match was in Ukraine I would be more confident about my bet. But In Porto's field I am looking for a surprise or a well paying odds for my small coupon. Anyway my bet options: 1- Under 2,5 Goals (our local pays @1.70) 2- Half Time Draw/ Full Time Porto (Our local pays @3.60) 3- Half Time Dynamo/Full Time Draw (our local pays @19.00) I should know counter attack power of Dynamo and defense strength. I will be glad if you help clearin my mind. Thank you in advance

[CFCWatson]

Re: Group A > Oct 24 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG) Everything points to a Porto win, but there seems to be very little interest in the game on this forum? Any ideas why guys? I'm no expert on either side, in fact I know very little about either, so I can't put much input in here. Porto's recent record looks fantastic though, especially at home. Whilst Kiev's recent results have been poor. Surely Porto have too much for Kiev here? Also, Excellent write up Fedar.

[NoFear]

Re: Group A > Oct 24 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG)

I remeber a game Porto lost against Rio. Now questions : (Ofcourse these matches arenot same but may help to clear a bet idea) At that day I bet on Both Teams Not To Score. I won but the result was funny. I thought Rio couldnt score :D But reality Porto couldnt. I dunno how Rio played to stop Porto. Sometimes other teams watch rival's last matches and try to duplicate best tactics that may work against stronger teams. Is it possible that Dynamo can handle Porto? Porto has 6 points and possible to add 3 points more to guarantee next step in 3 matches. And Kiev another canditate for qualify from this group.Who knows. 3 points from Zagrep not a miracle but might put an idea of why not qualify or try that possibility. This match will be that match to be considered by Dynamo. If match was in Ukraine I would be more confident about my bet. But In Porto's field I am looking for a surprise or a well paying odds for my small coupon. Anyway my bet options: 1- Under 2' date=5 Goals (our local pays @1.70) 2- Half Time Draw/ Full Time Porto (Our local pays @3.60) 3- Half Time Dynamo/Full Time Draw (our local pays @19.00) I should know counter attack power of Dynamo and defense strength. I will be glad if you help clearin my mind. Thank you in advance

you can get better prices for all those bets online. Better by more than 20%

[Fedar]

Re: Group A > Oct 24 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG)

I remeber a game Porto lost against Rio. Now questions : (Ofcourse these matches arenot same but may help to clear a bet idea) At that day I bet on Both Teams Not To Score. I won but the result was funny. I thought Rio couldnt score :D But reality Porto couldnt. I dunno how Rio played to stop Porto. Sometimes other teams watch rival's last matches and try to duplicate best tactics that may work against stronger teams. Is it possible that Dynamo can handle Porto? Porto has 6 points and possible to add 3 points more to guarantee next step in 3 matches. And Kiev another canditate for qualify from this group.Who knows. 3 points from Zagrep not a miracle but might put an idea of why not qualify or try that possibility. This match will be that match to be considered by Dynamo. If match was in Ukraine I would be more confident about my bet. But In Porto's field I am looking for a surprise or a well paying odds for my small coupon. Anyway my bet options: 1- Under 2' date=5 Goals (our local pays @1.70) 2- Half Time Draw/ Full Time Porto (Our local pays @3.60) 3- Half Time Dynamo/Full Time Draw (our local pays @19.00) I should know counter attack power of Dynamo and defense strength. I will be glad if you help clearin my mind. Thank you in advance

Of course, this is football and anything can happen - yesterday Celtic was like 30 seconds away from getting a draw at Camp Nou. However, I have the feeling that here 1.30 would have been a more correct price for Porto. Porto sometimes does start slowly at home against weaker teams and has to score late goals to secure the win (and in fact, Porto almost always manages to get the late goals they need in Liga Sagres, something like United in Premiership). However, Dynamo is a relatively big name and this is their biggest disadvantage. Porto will treat them seriously and will raise their game. While Dynamo would have much bigger chances to strike a surprise if they were called BATE or Midtilland, as Porto will surely underestimate such teams.

[Fedar]

Re: Group A > Oct 24 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG)

Im from Croatia' date=' and believe me when i tell you PSG will beat Dinamo Zagreb! the only question is what will the diference be. Dinamo is playing champions league second year in a row, last year they lost all 6 games with goal difference 3-22 and two of those 3 they scored to Real Madrid when the spanish team was already winning 6-0. This year Dinamo sold their key player Badelj to HSV for 4 million euros and bought no one spectacular. They are still dominant in their domestic league but croatian first division is nowhere near as good as other european leagues. PSG is not very good either, bought many new players and they simply cant fit in that quickly. Tomorow PSG will miss some standard players from their squad: Sissoko Bodmer Lavezzi Motta Lugano Chantome and Sakho. The reason why i think PSG will win is because Dinamo has a very weak midfield, Brozovic and Kovacic are very young (18 and 19 ) and Callelo isnt playing many matches and is out of form. Dinamos attack is also weak and only their defence is their best part of the team with Tonel(31) and Simunic (35) very slow and old players. PSG have a long bench and anyone who comes on will give their best to win a place in the starting lineup so mi pick for this game is [b']PSG AH -1,5 at 2,60 bet265 stake 10/10 !!!!

That's a very good preview, but I have a question for you. You say that you are sure in PSG's win and at the same time you say that Dinamo's best line is their defense. I have noticed that PSG often struggles against teams with good defense that lock themselves up in their own half of the pitch. Can Dinamo do that?! Can they close down spaces and pressure effectively PSG's midfielders?! My own impressions from Dinamo are that they are not so convincing at the back. They do concede a lot of goals in their league and I remember the games against Ludogorets, when the Croatian defense was very vulnerable.

[Capone07]

Re: Group A > Oct 24 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG) Todays paper say that Dinamo manager will use a different tactic and put Vida( best dinamo defensive player) who usually plays DR, on DM and DR will be Vrsaljko (20), they also say that maybe Tonel, who is Dinamo best CD, wont play and Puljic ( teenager who never played at a serious level, letalone CL) is taking his spot . Personally I think Dinamo can maybe hold PSG attacks in the first half but when they get tired no serious player can replace their first team players. You are right, they concede very, very stupid goals from rookie mistakes and main reason for that is their inexperience and too much respect they show for their opponents. Dinamo has a respectfull defensive line ( but if Tonel doesnt play this is not the case) but their midfield is far from being good enough for CL. I imagine this game being one sided with PSG dominating posession and creating a lot of chances. It will all come down on PSG finishing ability and i think their win is very likely but i played AH -1,5 because i see hige value at 2,60.

[Deniz]

Re: Group A > Oct 24 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG) Thanks for sharing Fedar. As I mentioned before this will be small stake coupon with few other match bets. My guts not yet convinced me to definite Porto win. :) Nofear, in my country betting online is forbidden by laws. I can via different DNS strategies but if I have troubles with bookes then there will be no way to protect my rights. Even if I go to court then I will be punished for using those sites :) Local bookie enough for me. I amnot looking for big money , I just entertain myself by betting. :)

[Capone07]

Re: Group A > Oct 24 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG) Also, Dinamo plays deep because of their slow defence so Ibrahimovic will get lots of one-on-one action, not to mention Pastore who is a great player, Dinamos supoorters are angry at the clubs board and staff, they only bought 6000 tickets so the support from the stands isnt a factor to consider. Weather is fine, most importantlly no rain tonight...

[wxm91]

Re: Group A > Oct 24 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG) Gone for Zagreb in a four fold with Arsenal, Montpellier and Porto. There are always a few shocks at this point, 25/1

[Mr.Europe]

Re: Group A > Oct 24 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG) I just fear PSG will have the Juve primadonna mentality going into yesterday's game in Copenhagen, i.e. we just need to show up and it's 3 points in the bag. Ibrahimovic encapsulates that sort of arrogance perfectly. On the other hand he's also the kind of guy who can score 2 in injury time and pretend the previous 90 minutes didnt happen.

[Capone07]

Re: Group A > Oct 24 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG) True, thats why in a way Im glad that some first team players are injured, cuz IMO those players replacing then in the starting lineup will give 120% to prove themselves...

[atvet]

Re: Group A > Oct 24 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG) Dynamo is also a good team and has played very well against European top teams recent years. These good results have sometimes surprised almost all the punters. So we can't underestimate Dynamo. However Porto is a great home team and is now in good shape and that's a big thing. Is Dynamo ready for somekind of surprise?? We'll see.

[pg_yid]

Re: Group A > Oct 24 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG) I was planning on betting on PSG in this game because Dinamo Zagreb are out of their depth at this level (in addition to their off the field problems) but I find it the case that bookies are stingy when pricing up clubs with money (PSG, Anzhi), when it is often the case that these "teams of individuals" take a while to gel. To give an example, PSG are best priced 1.60 to win tonight whilst last season Lyon were best priced 1.63 to beat Dinamo Zagreb at home (they were 2.20 away...a game they won 1-7). Even though Lyon did not have the best of seasons, finishing fourth in Ligue 1, I believe the bookies overestimate the impact of the big money signings made by rich clubs. Another example would be Anzhi priced at a mere 3.3 to win at Anfield (and bear in mind Liverpool themselves are normally dangerously underpriced by the bookies). So to conclude, I believe there is normally value in opposing Dinamo Zagreb in the CL (bookies don't realise how bad they are) but in this case, with PSG serially underpriced, the odds have probably ended up about right, most likely by luck rather than informed judgment on the part of the bookmakers. Just my opinion- and PSG should still win the match particularly with the lack of home support in the stands.

[Fedar]

Re: Group A > Oct 24 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG)

I was planning on betting on PSG in this game because Dinamo Zagreb are out of their depth at this level (in addition to their off the field problems) but I find it the case that bookies are stingy when pricing up clubs with money (PSG' date=' Anzhi), when it is often the case that these "teams of individuals" take a while to gel. To give an example, PSG are best priced 1.60 to win tonight whilst last season Lyon were best priced 1.63 to beat Dinamo Zagreb [b']at home (they were 2.20 away...a game they won 1-7). Even though Lyon did not have the best of seasons, finishing fourth in Ligue 1, I believe the bookies overestimate the impact of the big money signings made by rich clubs. Another example would be Anzhi priced at a mere 3.3 to win at Anfield (and bear in mind Liverpool themselves are normally dangerously underpriced by the bookies). So to conclude, I believe there is normally value in opposing Dinamo Zagreb in the CL (bookies don't realise how bad they are) but in this case, with PSG serially underpriced, the odds have probably ended up about right, most likely by luck rather than informed judgment on the part of the bookmakers. Just my opinion- and PSG should still win the match particularly with the lack of home support in the stands.

In my opinion, the main factor behind the very low price of PSG is not their money but Dinamo Zagreb themselves. Last year, even after 5 group games, bookies still did not believe they could be so bad and probably guessed it was just a beginner's fever. Now they are certain that Dinamo are actually that bad. I have no doubts about the poor status of Dinamo. But I still have a little doubts about PSG. Especially, as somebody pointed out, if they decide to play the Juve thing from yesterday, even a poor side might surprise them. As about Anji - this is team I heavily follow and bet on due to its very predictable and stable game. Believe me - they are not overpriced at all. I will write more about it tomorrow, but i definitely think there's little chance that Anji will lose at Anfield.

[pg_yid]

Re: Group A > Oct 24 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG)

In my opinion, the main factor behind the very low price of PSG is not their money but Dinamo Zagreb themselves. Last year, even after 5 group games, bookies still did not believe they could be so bad and probably guessed it was just a beginner's fever. Now they are certain that Dinamo are actually that bad. I have no doubts about the poor status of Dinamo. But I still have a little doubts about PSG. Especially, as somebody pointed out, if they decide to play the Juve thing from yesterday, even a poor side might surprise them. As about Anji - this is team I heavily follow and bet on due to its very predictable and stable game. Believe me - they are not overpriced at all. I will write more about it tomorrow, but i definitely think there's little chance that Anji will lose at Anfield.

I guess it is hard to tell the exact reasoning behind a bookies' pricing (and to some extent it doesn't matter) but the fact that Porto (who I would regard as on a par with PSG) were 2.05 to win in Zagreb a few weeks ago makes me respectfully disagree with your first paragraph. I'll concede the point about Anji though, I don't follow them at all closely.

[SgtTr]

Re: Group A > Oct 24 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG)

In my opinion, the main factor behind the very low price of PSG is not their money but Dinamo Zagreb themselves. Last year, even after 5 group games, bookies still did not believe they could be so bad and probably guessed it was just a beginner's fever. Now they are certain that Dinamo are actually that bad. I have no doubts about the poor status of Dinamo. But I still have a little doubts about PSG. Especially, as somebody pointed out, if they decide to play the Juve thing from yesterday, even a poor side might surprise them. As about Anji - this is team I heavily follow and bet on due to its very predictable and stable game. Believe me - they are not overpriced at all. I will write more about it tomorrow, but i definitely think there's little chance that Anji will lose at Anfield.

PSG will take this match seriously. I don't know whether Juve underestimated Nords but they are the current serie A champions and a premature elimination would be hard to swallow but their achievement of last year will soften the blow, whereas PSG won zilch last year and the pressure from the sheikh must be causing sweat to trickle down Leonardo's and Carlo's neck no doubt. Now onto Zlatan, you can either consider his 'nonchalance' a flaw but you might also consider it a quality as he does not have to run like a headless chicken to make an impact. He will no doubt be motivated tonight as he will want to secure three points to increase the chance of setting up a possible encounter with his good friend Messi next year. PSG had a relatively easy match against Reims during the weekend where they played only 20 minutes of high tempo football to secure the win, no doubt they had an eye on today's match. As you have mentioned anything is possible in football but any mishap for PSG tonight won't be due to underestimation of their opponent.

[Capone07]

Re: Group A > Oct 24 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG)

Im from Croatia' date=' and believe me when i tell you PSG will beat Dinamo Zagreb! the only question is what will the diference be. Dinamo is playing champions league second year in a row, last year they lost all 6 games with goal difference 3-22 and two of those 3 they scored to Real Madrid when the spanish team was already winning 6-0. This year Dinamo sold their key player Badelj to HSV for 4 million euros and bought no one spectacular. They are still dominant in their domestic league but croatian first division is nowhere near as good as other european leagues. PSG is not very good either, bought many new players and they simply cant fit in that quickly. Tomorow PSG will miss some standard players from their squad: Sissoko Bodmer Lavezzi Motta Lugano Chantome and Sakho. The reason why i think PSG will win is because Dinamo has a very weak midfield, Brozovic and Kovacic are very young (18 and 19 ) and Callelo isnt playing many matches and is out of form. Dinamos attack is also weak and only their defence is their best part of the team with Tonel(31) and Simunic (35) very slow and old players. PSG have a long bench and anyone who comes on will give their best to win a place in the starting lineup so mi pick for this game is [b']PSG AH -1,5 at 2,60 bet265 stake 10/10 !!!!

I hope you took my advice and earned some money as I have ;) .... cheers!!

[Deniz]

Re: Group A > Oct 24 (D.Kiev, D. Zagreb, Porto, PSG)

I remeber a game Porto lost against Rio. Now questions : (Ofcourse these matches arenot same but may help to clear a bet idea) At that day I bet on Both Teams Not To Score. I won but the result was funny. I thought Rio couldnt score :D But reality Porto couldnt. I dunno how Rio played to stop Porto. Sometimes other teams watch rival's last matches and try to duplicate best tactics that may work against stronger teams. Is it possible that Dynamo can handle Porto? Porto has 6 points and possible to add 3 points more to guarantee next step in 3 matches. And Kiev another canditate for qualify from this group.Who knows. 3 points from Zagrep not a miracle but might put an idea of why not qualify or try that possibility. This match will be that match to be considered by Dynamo. If match was in Ukraine I would be more confident about my bet. But In Porto's field I am looking for a surprise or a well paying odds for my small coupon. Anyway my bet options: 1- Under 2' date=5 Goals (our local pays @1.70) 2- Half Time Draw/ Full Time Porto (Our local pays @3.60) 3- Half Time Dynamo/Full Time Draw (our local pays @19.00) I should know counter attack power of Dynamo and defense strength. I will be glad if you help clearin my mind. Thank you in advance

I was expecting some surprise in this match. Actually Kiev's scorings proved my theory but that defence made me wrong :) I chose HT Draw FT Porto . And so close :D