Serie A - September 29-30

[Dylan]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Saturday 29 September 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Parma v AC Milan (17:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.46[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.37 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Juventus v AS Roma (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.68[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.33[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.25[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.65 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Sunday 30 September 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Udinese v Genoa (11:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.65[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.33[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.48 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Atalanta v Torino (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.76 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Bologna v Catania (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.48[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.93 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Cagliari v Pescara (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.40 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Lazio v Siena (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.66[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.85[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6.9[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.47 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Palermo v Chievo (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.38[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.10 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Sampdoria v Napoli (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.28[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.51 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Internazionale v Fiorentina (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.17[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.9[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.71 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Dylan]

Re: Serie A - September 29-30 Some cracking matches to look forward to this weekend with Juve vs Roma on Saturday and Inter vs Fiorentina on Sunday night. Betting wise a number of matches interest this weekend; Parma vs Milan – I’ll be interested to hear what others think about Milan here because to me they seem a little too long. This is mainly based on my opinions on Parma who I think are a distinctly average team and for me don’t seem to have either the players or the tactics to frustrate Milan as the likes of Sampdoria or Atalanta have. They are not over defensive and won’t sit too deep, but are not that dynamic going forward either and the Milan defence may be in for a slighty easier night. They do have a bit of pace but don’t use as effectively as they could and I think Belfodil is out for this one (as well as Valdes, who is another key creative player for them). They created very little against Fiorentina, with the exception of two penalty kicks and their best opportunities against Genoa, and indeed their goal came from set pieces rather than open play. Milan still have their problems, but confidence will be building up after the win midweek. Things are still not brilliant and overall they don’t have a team anywhere near good enough to challenge for the league but they look a little better than a few weeks ago. The defence is looking more solid, with De Sciglio impressing at right back and at the moment looking like a better option than Abate. Whilst I don’t rate Bonera too much, he has a decent partnership with Mexes and they’ve had 2 clean sheets together in the last 2 games. In front of them the return of Montolivo has helped bring a bit of dynamism to the central midfield area and they still have great pace upfront with Urby and El Sha. I’m surprised I’m saying this but not having Boateng in the team is helping as well. Whenever he was on the pitch in the early season he seemed to have all the responsibility to attack and often wasted possession trying to score 25 yard screamers. Things are slightly more cohesive without him at the moment, and I’ll be surprised to see him start this one. Milan DNB could be a possible play here then. Lazio vs Siena – price may be a little low at the moment but if it can get a little higher I may well play Lazio here. Hopefully with Siena currently winning tonight, people might get on them in the belief they are a good team, when really they aren’t. They’ve been very lucky in the last 3 matches. Against Udinese they were 2-0 down in 5 minutes but got lucky with a red card (and Guidolin got sent to the stand aswell) and were able to get back into the game. The performance against Inter was alright but Inter wasted so many chances, and were undone by their own defensive frailities rather than Siena’s attacking nous. Tonights performance has been poor too, don’t know how they are winning this. They look tired (and will have a days less rest than Lazio for this one) and so short of ideas. Usually with Cosmi teams you expect a lot of running and desire to get forward but they just don’t have the players capable of this and so have had to become more orthodox and defensive. I’m not sure this suits the managers style and there have been bossed by Bologna who have wasted a number of chances. With the midfield that Lazio has, combining a good mix of skill and work rate you’d fancy them to do similar and dominate and you wouldn’t expect Klose or Hernanes to be so wasteful in front of goals. This could be an ideal game for Lazio to recapture their from earlier in the season. Those two are the ones I have the most interest in, but there are others that remain in consideration. Palermo have been playing alright in the last couple of games and really should have picked up points from both these games. The had the better chances than Atalanta in that match but fell asleep in the last minute from a set piece and against Pescara they missed so many great chances (Hernandez being mostly responsible) within the first 30 minutes and should have been a couple of goals ahead before the sending off. Cheivo on the road are not the most adventurous team which will come as a relief to a defence in transition. If they have a lot of the ball I’ve seen enough from them upfront in the last couple of games to believe that they will get chances and eventually something has got to go in surely. At 2.4 there may be options to back Palermo in this one. I’m not overly keen in backing Napoli away from home after last weekends stalemate but Sampdoria do have a few injury problems to contend with this weekend with make them look a weaker side than earlier in the season. Without Poli there is a lack of control on the ball in midfield and they will also miss the suspended Maresca. Obieng is a tough cookie but the rest of the midfield doesn’t interest me that much. Without Lopez or Pozzi to spear the attack, they will depend on the inexperienced Icardi. The attack may be hard working but maybe doesn’t have any particular goal threats. Napoli are already looking very strong this season and very consistent in performances. Defensively they look good and are creating a lot of chances in all their games. There seems to be a real belief about them at the moment and they should be looking to capitalise on the issues Samp have. Finally if Fiorentina can repeat the performance they put in vs Juve then at 3/1 they are much too long. That performance was excellent in my eyes, they controlled and passed the ball well and didn’t get overawed by their opponents. The lack of an out and out striker is an issue and means they won’t score bucket loads but Jovetic is a huge threat and Lljaic despite the diving impressed me against Juve. The only question here is whether they can maintain these levels, and on first review performance away from home don’t seem to have been as good as those at the Artemino Franchi. Certainly against Parma they were not as fluid.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Serie A - September 29-30 You've highlighted some good stuff there Dylan, Milan on a positive handicap has potential in my eyes although they are still a bit fragile behind the scenes you would feel. The form of Siena is really interesting at the momment, I didn't manage to see the Bologna game tonight which is annoying. If Siena were really as bad as you say they were then I can understand your line of thinking but I never like taking teams on a -0.75 or -1 and that would probably have to be the way with Lazio with a price which doesn't really strike me as +ev. I'd dearly love to back Palermo at that price at home to Chievo but they are desperately out of form at the momment. When your best players are missing easy chances it just doesn't bode well. The most important thing will be to try and find out how the morale levels are with the manager and players before making a play in that one. Even so Palermo on a positive handicap is on my shortlist as it's a good opportunity to turn their season, it's just a question of spirit level. Napoli always hurt punters on their travels but the injury list for Samp is severe. Maresca being out is terrible, I expect Tissone will come in but he is like the pound shop Maresca. Both centre-forwards being out is also dire. Backing Napoli to get the job done fills me with dread but the -0.25 line has to be considered here.

[saimon76]

Re: Serie A > September 29-30 Inter has Snejedr injured, Fiorentina playing very well at the moment and deserved all 3 pts on tuesday.. but Florence lose very often at san siro. I think this might end in a draw

[Dylan]

Re: Serie A - September 29-30 Seems we've got two threads on the go at the moment, could we get merge? Anyway i'm still undecided on Milan and will wait for official team news. Gazzetta seem to be suggesting that they may rotate a little, with Mexes, Montolivo and Urby all left out. I would have concerns over midfield particularly if the later two are left out as it would lack any creative spark. As for my other possible picks, i've ruled Palermo out but everything else still interests me. Just a matter of finding the best options.

[Dylan]

Re: Serie A - September 29-30 Whilst I wait for team news in the Milan game, here's my other picks so far for this weekends actions. Lazio vs Siena – Lazio -0.5AH 1.68 at Bet Victor ( 6 /10 units) I’ve already touched on this match previously, and I still feel that Siena’s recent run is not an accurate reflection on how they have been playing. They were poor against Bologna and I don’t know how they came out with the win. The goal was a massive piece of luck with that deflection off Antonsson, and the Bologna GK didn’t have a save to make until the 88 minutes. It was a performance mostly devoid of any creativity, and they were out bossed in the middle of the park by Bologna, allowing the away team to control the game. They looked knackered as well, and having a day less to prepare for this game than Lazio could prove problematic for them. Lazio whilst stuttering of late have still generally impressed so far this season. They look a much more solid team than under Reja last year, the defence is looking less calamitous and I’m liking the way they line up in midfield. Similar to Bologna they should have enough about them in that area of pitch to control the game and with Klose & Hernanes up top they should be able to get a goal or two to seal the win. Sampdoria vs Napoli – Napoli -0.25AH 1.85 at Bet Victor ( 4 / 10 units) I do just feel that the injuries and suspensions that Samp have will make it hard for them to get points in this one. They’ve got Poli, Maresca and Tissone out in midfield, all players that have featured heavily so far this season. Poli especially is a huge loss, he’s a great passer of the ball and calm in possession and Sampdoria don’t really have a replacement for him. Obiang still does a good job breaking up play, but without that control of the ball I think they’ll struggle to get any rhythm going in this game and may be limited in how much they get the ball forward. Even if they can get it forward they’ll still struggle to hold on to it without either the suspended Maxi Lopez or the injured Nicola Pozzi. All three of the potential strike force Eder, Estergarribia and Soriano are all more support strikers than out and out strikers and I can’t see them threatening aerially or in behind the Napoli defence. In comparison to Sampdoria, Napoli have virtually no injury or suspension concerns so we’ll see a very strong Napoli team. They’ve started the season well, and whilst historically they don’t always excel on the road, they’ve done well this season with a win at Palermo and the draw last weekend at Catania, in a match they really should have won. You can see that they are really determined to have a better title challenege this season and Mazzari has refrained from any annoying rotation up until now. Having missed the chance to pick up three points in that Catania game, he won’t want to miss this chance of an away win against a weakened Samp team.

[Feduloff]

Re: Serie A > September 29-30 Udinese-Genoa, Genoa +0,5 2.1 7/10 Di Natale is out for this clash due to disciplinary decision of Udinese's coach. http://www.gazzetta.it/Calcio/Squadr...53545055.shtml

[Dylan]

Re: Serie A - September 29-30 The price on Genoa is very interesting. Seems to have been gradually rising over the last few days and now sits at 4.0+. I'm not going to put anything on them as i'm happy with the bets i've already placed here but the +handicaps could be worth a look on Genoa. Without Di Natalie, who has been left out the squad you would feel that they will struggle to get goals. Its a tough ask for Ranegie and Barretto to come in and form an instant partnership. There is also a lack of goals from elsewhere in the team, with only Basta looking confident in getting forward so far this season. Maybe Udinese could sneak a goal but with the firepower they've got upfront you would imagine that Genoa could do the same. Particularly against a defence still missing Dommizzi. The only concern that you would have in this one would be the midfield match ups. Genoa can sometimes be a bit lightweight defensivly in the middle of the park as the likes of Jankovic and Merkel are great going forward but not so good at the defensive side of things. However the signs are promising for this one, I its likely that neither of those two will start and the manager Di Canio may well convert Antonelli into a central midfielder for this game, playing along the tough Seymour and all action Kucka. I'm not sure whether the long term plan for Antonelli is in this position but his ability to put in challenges and scrap for the ball should be welcomed by Genoa's midfield in this game. That does mean that may lose some attacking spark without Merkel or Jankovic in the team but I would still fancy them to at least match Udinese in this one.

[ultravires]

Re: Serie A - September 29-30 I have been fully occupied this week so I haven't even had a look at this card until now. Genoa+0.5 is a definite play in my eyes. Di Natale means too much to Udinese going forward to justify a price around 2.00. I think that is my play as I'm still shook from Napoli away from home against defensive sides. i'll have to have a little think.

[mowglisplace]

Re: Serie A - September 29-30 Two matches to discuss today and both comes from Serie A. First I will look into the match Sampdoria – Napoli. The newcomer Sampdoria is actually on a 3rd place and have impressed on me as a team. They look very compact and solid. Unfortunately they will miss Lopez (3goals) and Maresca due to suspensions and Estegarribia is a question mark due to injury. Napoli seldom impress on me when playing away against “worse” teams when they have to dictate the pace of the play. This is a match where I don’t expect a lot of goals and the draw looks likely. I will go for the unders here. Internazionale – Fiorentina looks like it could be a very entertaining game. Two teams who plays with an offensive 3-5-2 formation and have great offensive threats. The guests from Florence might be the team that has impressed on me most this season. New coach Montella has improved every aspect of the game and on the field the team is lead by the fantastic Jovetic. The main problem is that there is no Gilardino, a striker that can convert the chances created. Inter is struggling a bit with their mentality and is adjusting too much after their opposition in my opinion. They will miss their dynamo, Wesley Schneider, on the midfield but still have big guns in the offense in the likes of Cassano and Milito. I think that Fiorentina has very good chances to at least grab a point on San Siro and also that we’ll have a very entertaining game with a lot of scoring chances at our hands.

[saimon76]

Re: Serie A - September 29-30 I agree with the chossing of most of you. I will play cagliari 1 , because they finally play in the new stadium, and must win. Pescara have some missings and are very poor. I think they will park the bus to find a point, and this is the risk for cagliari that missu cossu and another player.I still think they finally win. Sampdoria has a lot of missings specialli in mid attacck, so it will be hard to score. Napoli, after juve big win yesterdat, must try to remain attached to them and give a reply also . so 2 at, 2,15 is a must try in single bet. Lazio is quite full team, so 1 at very low odd of 1.6 is good for double or treble. I am a fiorentina fan, fiorentina always lose at milano. so sstay away form this match, but i hope for an X. Do not know what to think of the other match, another X could come from Udine GL !!!

[Aidymac]

Re: Serie A - September 29-30 *Inter v Fiorentina - Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Betfair* A lot of the Italian games seem to go under, due to tight defences mainly, it is not a fast style of play like the english league. This game i reckon will go under, it is a close game with both teams near the top of the table. Inter's last 3 games in a row have gone under, and they will find it tough to break down a good Fiorentina side. Fiorentina's last 3 games have also gone under, and the last time they met it finished 0-0, the game before that finished 2-0 to Inter also.

[Aidymac]

Re: Serie A - September 29-30 *Palermo v Chievo - 2 Points Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.79* Very tight game here with 2 teams in a relegation battle already. Palermo have gone under in their last 3 games in a row, and Chievo have gone under in 5 of their last 6, again i feel Italian football is a more defensive set up in general. Slightly worrying, this fixture finished 4-4 the last time they met, but before that it finished 1-0 to Chievo, i guess it could go either way, but i fancy the unders personally.

[Aidymac]

Re: Serie A - September 29-30 *Atalanta v Torino - Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.55 Betfair* This is my strongest fancy today, but i guess the odds do reflect that. I would have been happy with 1.5. Atalanta have gone under in 7 of their last 8 games, they really are an unders team. Torino have gone under in 4 of their last 5. There is 1 place seperating them on the table and we could be in for a bore match here again, i hope. All points to unders.

[Dylan]

Re: Serie A - September 29-30

Whilst I wait for team news in the Milan game, here's my other picks so far for this weekends actions. Lazio vs Siena – Lazio -0.5AH 1.68 at Bet Victor ( 6 /10 units) :ok Sampdoria vs Napoli – Napoli -0.25AH 1.85 at Bet Victor ( 4 / 10 units) :ok

A couple of winners here and +7.5 units profit. I've still got quite a bit of interest in Fiorentina tonight. Whilst Inter haven't been awful this season, things still don't look as fluid as they can be and in the matches i've seen them they've often made mistakes with the ball, to often giving it away and not taking control of matches either. If they continue like that tonight then Fiorentina that could really trouble them. They are already very comfortable on the ball, excellent with it against Juve, and if Inter dont have the ball they'll find it very difficult to get into this game. Goal scoring will always been a problem without an out and out striker in the first 11, but they should have enough of the ball in this match to trouble Inter's dodgy-ish defence. Certainly if they do move to a back 3 as speculated then this could cause Inter more problems. It didn't really really work for them last season. Any thoughts?

[hebert10]

Re: Serie A - September 29-30 Inter v Fiorentina 3pts Fiorentina DNB @ 2.5 Paddypower Really not convinced that Inter will win this game, they changed tactic to a 352 against Chievo and beat them 2-0 and it looks as if Inter will field the same formation tonight. The way Fiorentina played last week against Juve really impressed me as they really went in to the game with the intention of grabbing all 3 points and i can see them doing the same tonight. Inter really aren't as strong as Juve and if they do play the 352 they played last game this should play right in to Fiorentinas hands as the Inter defense could really struggle trying to contain jovetic. Sneijder is an absolutely huge player for Inter and they will miss him in these big games and it looks as if Fiorentina will definitely have enough to match or even be better than the Inter midfeild tonight. Fiorentin haven't beaten Inter in the last 14 games between the sides and tonight could be the night it turns around.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Serie A - September 29-30

A couple of winners here and +7.5 units profit. I've still got quite a bit of interest in Fiorentina tonight. Whilst Inter haven't been awful this season, things still don't look as fluid as they can be and in the matches i've seen them they've often made mistakes with the ball, to often giving it away and not taking control of matches either. If they continue like that tonight then Fiorentina that could really trouble them. They are already very comfortable on the ball, excellent with it against Juve, and if Inter dont have the ball they'll find it very difficult to get into this game. Goal scoring will always been a problem without an out and out striker in the first 11, but they should have enough of the ball in this match to trouble Inter's dodgy-ish defence. Certainly if they do move to a back 3 as speculated then this could cause Inter more problems. It didn't really really work for them last season. Any thoughts?

Yeh Inter V Fiorentina is a real toughie to call and I personally would just leave that game alone. Fiorentina did suprisingly well in their last game against Juve but I don't think they've become world beaters overnight and the outcome of tonights game is really anybody's guess. I also think the bookies have priced Inter V Fiorentina correctly so no +ev for me. You've already clocked up some units today with a couple of good calls and if I were you I would probably draw the line there rather than spinning the roulette wheel at the san siro. I don't want to put you off Fiorentina if you have a strong feeling for them but I'm speaking from the perspective of my own betting strategy. I didn't take anything today in the end but some very interesting results on the card. Will watch the game tonight and then have a look next week.

[Dylan]

Re: Serie A - September 29-30 I think you're right to be honest. I'm probably basing my opinion of Fiorentina too much on the one game vs Juve, and whilst that was exceptional they are a still a new team in terms of players, tactics and manager. It remains to be seen whether then can get the consistency of performance thats required to take points of two big teams in a week.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Serie A - September 29-30

I think you're right to be honest. I'm probably basing my opinion of Fiorentina too much on the one game vs Juve' date=' and whilst that was exceptional they are a still a new team in terms of players, tactics and manager. It remains to be seen whether then can get the consistency of performance thats required to take points of two big teams in a week.[/quote'] Their consistency would be my concern, I'm sure after the Juve win their psychology will be high whilst Inter are still under pressure but even so it's a nightmare to call. Will be an interesting watch though.

[saimon76]

Re: Serie A - September 29-30 Inter will be passionate to win, but Strama I think has understand that is better not to lose first. Fiorentina playing very nice since start of the season, not only against Juve. If they perform well, they can win easily . I think a draw might suite both teams. No bet for me

[hebert10]

Re: Serie A - September 29-30

Inter v Fiorentina 3pts Fiorentina DNB @ 2.5 Paddypower Really not convinced that Inter will win this game, they changed tactic to a 352 against Chievo and beat them 2-0 and it looks as if Inter will field the same formation tonight. The way Fiorentina played last week against Juve really impressed me as they really went in to the game with the intention of grabbing all 3 points and i can see them doing the same tonight. Inter really aren't as strong as Juve and if they do play the 352 they played last game this should play right in to Fiorentinas hands as the Inter defense could really struggle trying to contain jovetic. Sneijder is an absolutely huge player for Inter and they will miss him in these big games and it looks as if Fiorentina will definitely have enough to match or even be better than the Inter midfeild tonight. Fiorentin haven't beaten Inter in the last 14 games between the sides and tonight could be the night it turns around.

Watched bits nd pieces of the game tonight and from what i seen Fiorentina looked the better team before the sending off, if the sending off never happened i really think Fiorentina would have got back in to that. 2012 Football Record: 15-29 (-14.21)