Jump to content

Flat Racing ~ Saturday 22nd September


Recommended Posts

1.45 Ayr: William Hill Ayr Bronze Cup (Class 4) (6f) The first of three highly competitive sprints and Jack Dexter looks the most unexposed horse in the line up and will have plenty of supporters. I can’t ignore Cheveton who has won here twice in these races and will love the ground and would be my choice of those drawn low. Of the high numbers I would give Arctic Feeling a chance for trainer Richard Fahey, he ran well on Friday and if over those exertions could go well again. If Arctic Feeling pulls out then Tajneed at the prices looks too big. Selections; 2pts Cheveton 13/2 >Paddy Power 1pt EW Arctic Feeling 20/1 >Bet365 (5 places) 1pt EW Tajneed 25/1 >BetVictor (5 places) Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/ayr-betting-third-cup-success-on-the-cards-for-cheveton-at-ayr Silver and Gold Cups to follow;

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 22nd September William Hill Ayr Gold Cup – Ayr Our Jonathan proved a welcome winner for the updates last year but at the time of writing he has a couple of big negatives to overcome. He currently sits at the head of the betting, although the well-fancied runners may flip-flop in the lead up to the race, but it still needs pointing out that 33 of the last 34 Ayr Gold Cup favourites have been beaten. So whilst the favourite, whoever it is, can be taken on it should still pay to favour the more fancied runners as 10 of the last 12 winners had been no worse that 9th in the betting. The other major negative concerning Our Jonathan is the fact that no horse has recorded back-to-back victories in the Ayr Gold Cup since Heronslea in 1930/31 although Funfair Wane did win the race in 2002 and 2004. A poor draw in a race such as this can often put paid to a horse’s chances before the stalls have even opened. History tells us that the 8 stalls closest to either rail tend to produce the most winners although trying to decide which rail is often a conundrum in itself. The bulk of the more fancied runners this year look to have a low to middle draw but historically high numbers seem to be best when it is riding good to soft or worse at Ayr so maybe we will get a less fancied winner this year? It is no secret that Dandy Nicholls has a remarkable record in the Ayr Gold Cup having won 6 of the last 12 renewals but he hasn’t appeared to be the force of old for a couple of seasons now and his duo of runners this year, Beacon Lodge and Rodrigo De Torres are both big prices. In more recent season’s Kevin Ryan has the best record having won the race in 2007 with Advance and last year with Our Jonathan. I have already explained why the latter may struggle to retain his crown but Pintura, Louis The Pious and Captain Ramius also represent the Yorkshire based Irishman. Another Irishman based in Yorkshire is Richard Fahey who won this race in 2006 with Fonthill Road. He is also represented by 4 runners tomorrow – Brae Hill, Alben Star, Johannes and Miss Work Of Art. The only other current trainer to have won this race and which has runners tomorrow is David Barron. His victory did come back in 1996 with the only favourite in modern times to have won this race, Coastal Bluff, but even so his trio of Pearl Ice, Colonel Mak and Waffle all warrant a closer look. As a rule of thumb it usually pays to oppose any runners trained in the south as in the last decade only Presto Shinko and Jimmy Styles have taken the honours and a similar pattern is revealed when looking back even further – not great reading if you are a fan of the current second favourite Sholaan. When it comes to the trend surrounding age, the positive results are rather inconclusive. There is very little to separate the 4, 5 and 6yos although if you had to, there would be a very marginal victory to the youngest of that trio. But when it comes to horses older than 6, I would be keen to oppose them as the last 7yo winner of this race was Hard To Figure way back in 1993 so as much as it loathes me to do it, my old favourite Borderlescott has to be overlooked along with Johannes, Regal Parade and Beacon Lodge. I would also be inclined to dismiss the chances of Miss Work Of Art and Sholaan as no 3yo has won the Ayr Gold Cup since Funfair Wane in 2002. Further back in time they did have a few winners in the 80s and 90s but that would really be scraping the barrel. The Stewards’ Cup is easily the best pointer to the Ayr Gold Cup as 7 of the last 15 winners had been beaten at Goodwood. Of course, Hawkeyethenoo won this year’s Goodwood showpiece but the race is also represented by Waffle (4th), Alben Star (5th), Shropshire (8th) and Borderlescott (9th). If horses which ran at Goodwood as the ones to follow then those horses which ran at Royal Ascot are almost certainly not. 8 of the last 12 Ayr Gold Cup winners had bypassed the Royal Meeting. Quite why that makes a difference I have no idea, but it cannot be ignored. The final trend surrounds last time out form but it isn’t particularly strong. Even so, the fact that 6 of the last 12 winners had been unplaced on their most recent start does warrant a mention. Shortlist Maarek Mirza Loius The Pious Colonel Mak Conclusion Trends can be a very handy tool to use, as evidenced last weekend, but they are not the be all and end all especially when it comes to such extreme ground as they are likely to have at Ayr. Even though one horse may be particularly strong from a trends perspective it would be completely pointless backing them if they are not confirmed mud-lovers. So top of my shortlist is MAAREK who rather than be inconvenienced by the ground will actually be better because of it. The fact that he would be carrying top-weight would normally put me off but Peter Nagle, who trains down the road from Ballydoyle, has took off 5lb by using claimer Mark Enright. The horse couldn’t be coming into the race in better form having won 4 times this season which included victory in the Gr3 Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle on bottomless ground and last time out in the Gr3 Renaissance Stakes at the Curragh when again there was some ease in the going. His draw in stall 13 wouldn’t be ideal in a normal renewal but with the ground as testing as it is, this race is anything but normal. I keep looking at Mirza and cannot for the life of me see why he is so big at 25-1 given that he was a 5f heavy ground listed winner at Cork in June and likely to improve for this step up in trip. He ran okay next time out when 6th in the Gr3 Sapphire Stakes at the Curragh when he had excuses but he had no obvious ones next time when he disappointed in the Gr3 Hackwood Stakes at Newbury. However, that was his 4th run in just over a month and it is more than possible that the edge had been taken off him. Rae Guest has sensibly given him a rest since then and so he arrives at Ayr a fresh horse. Stall 24 looks an added bonus if, as I believe, the near side provides the faster strip of ground and I fancy him to run a big race even if the bookies don’t. Louise The Pious comes into the race with an almost perfect race record having finished runner-up in the Stewards’ Cup consolation race at Goodwood and then 3rd in the Great St Wilfrid. He has a decent draw in stall 6, if that side proves to be the best, and at around the 20-1 mark strikes me as a respectable each-way bet. I wouldn’t say that he is a confirmed mud-lover but although he has only won on good to soft he has handled heavier conditions in the past without winning. I do like Colonel Mak and I think it is fair to say that this race has always been on his agenda after he won well on soft ground at Hamilton in July. He run a solid race to finish 4th behind Our Jonathan in this race last season and 12 months prior to that he won the Silver Cup so clearly likes the sea air up in Scotland. If the high numbers do provide the best side to be he is ideally positioned to take advantage in stall 22. I would be even more positive about his chances but although he handles soft ground I am not so sure about anything worse.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 22nd September

2.20 Ayr: William Hill Ayr Silver Cup (Class 3) (6f) Very competitive as you would expect and the favourite Highland Colori will have plenty of followers but doesn’t represent much value to me at around 8/1. I like Lightning Cloud from the Ryan yard, never runs a bad race and I do like the Wokingham form in the context of this race, he’s drawn 21 but should get a good tow into the race from fast starter Valery Borzov in 18. As an alternative I have to put Mass Rally in there, has to be produced on the line but is running well and should be thereabouts. Selections: 1pt EW Lightning Cloud 16/1

>Betfred (first 5)

1pt EW Mass Rally 16/1

>Bet365 (first 5)

Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/ayr-betting-ryan-to-strike-with-lightning-cloud-in-silver-cup-at-ayr

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 22nd September 3.30 Ayr: William Hill Ayr Gold Cup (Class 2) (6f) Terrific renewal of the Ayr Gold Cup with endless possibilities but a race full of top class sprinters. You can argue about the draw all day and maybe after the Bronze and Silver Cups we will have more of an idea but its wise to pick one from each side and sit back and watch it all unfold. I like The Cheka from those on the far side in stall 11 and of those drawn high Tariq Too is interesting dropping back to sprint distances. Both represent a bit of value and shop around and get on with the firms paying enhanced places! Selections; 1pt EW The Cheka 16/1 >Bet365 (first 5) 1pt EW Tariq Too 20/1 >Paddy Power (first 5) Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/ayr-gold-cup-betting-take-a-chance-on-the-cheka-to-take-gold-at-ayr

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 22nd September Newbury 2.05pm Black Spirit won well enough at Doncaster just over a week ago but is now back up in class and running over further. The favourite nicked a listed race from the front last time out and you'd have to hope the rival jockeys are aware today and don't let it have a soft lead. A race fit Coquet could prove better than the one that turned up at York. Full race preview below: http://www.punterslounge.com/newbury-betting-black-spirit-in-good-heart-and-can-go-close-again-after-recent-doncaster-success Selections: 1pt WIN – Black Spirit 7-1 SkyBet 1pt WIN – Coquet 13-2 William Hill

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 22nd September Ayr 2.50pm Lightly raced improving types can prove valuable to follow and Melody Of Love fits that bill but certainly does need to improve again and looks capable of doing so. Heavy ground can throw all form out of the window at times though and that is the main concern here. Form with Deauville Prince and Moviesta looks good and expecting a decent effort. Full preview below: http://www.punterslounge.com/ayr-betting-melody-of-love-to-run-the-rascal-ragged-in-fillies-race Selection: 2pts WIN – Melody Of Love 5-1 BetVictor (BOG)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 22nd September 3.55 Newmarket - 1pt win Bernie The Bolt @ 11/1 (PP) I have a feeling that Andrew Balding's horse is going to run a cracker here in an attempt to win the race for the second time having been successful in 2009. His only other victory since then came off a mark 5lbs higher than this but he has had excuses on many of his runs of late. Ran plenty well enough on his seasonal return this year before possibly bouncing here next time in what proved to be an extremely hot race which has worked out very well. The combination of ground and distance seemed to catch him out at the Royal meeting before shaping okay back at Ascot last time when the race was run totally not to suit (nothing came from off pace - did best of those from rear). Steps back up to 2m2f here and to the course and distance he's won at previously and is off a nice mark. Ground is fine for him and all three of his wins have come in August/September so this could be his time of year also. Hopeful of a good effort.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 22nd September CROWN CHOICE (17:05) does have to improve on a bare reading of his 2012 form but ran well enough over the minimum trip last time out and although he has a 53 day absence to contend with, the selection has form when fresh and has fallen to a good mark, so with conditions right for the first time in quite a while he’s likely to run very well. A useful sort for Walter Swinburn, winning over 6f-7f, he really needs fast ground to be seen at his best and although he has encountered that on a couple of occasions this season, he hasn’t had much luck with the draw on one of these starts and in the other, he wasn’t given too hard a time of things in the closing stages for my liking. Last seen at Glorious Goodwood in July, he stayed on well over the minimum trip, a distance which was just too sharp and he was also inconvenienced by the draw, where the stands side group never got involved. That was the first time in a while that Crown Choice had finished off a race without weakening and indicated to me that he shouldn’t be too long in challenging for victory once returning to a more suitable distance. He gets exactly that today and a strongly run 6f on fast ground is his bag, so they’ll be no excuses on that front with Idler and Perfect Blossom drawn nearby. Jimmy Quinn is 0/13 in recent seasons for this yard but it isn’t as big a worry as it might have been, as connections had Tom Queally booked until yesterday before he decided to ride something else and Mikael Barzalona was also attempted to be booked for the ride, who wouldn’t be the obvious jockey of choice if you just wanted a spin for some fitness. Hopefully they aren’t using this run for a spin at Goodwood next week (a course he has plenty of form at) but Crown Choice has form when fresh earlier in his career and at this sort of price, is well worth a play. -- CHINA EXCELS (17:25) was well-beaten over 6f last time out here at Catterick but returns to faster ground which is sure to suit and I’m fairly confident that they’re setting this horse up for a punt, especially as he’s been campaigned quite conservatively to get a mark and has been well-backed on one occasion. His effort last time out further emphasised that belief that this horse will be gambled on at some stage and he’s worthy of support dropping in grade and back at 7f, a distance that should definitely suit. Trained by Sue Smith, more known for her National Hunt exploits, the selection didn’t show much in Bumpers but ran fairly well in a seller at this venue in July and a maiden when running to get a handicap rating. The way he was ridden in those races indicated a horse who was a low-grade handicap project, often given plenty to do and the whip being used sparingly, if at all. China Excels went handicapping off a 6lb higher mark than he currently races off and although well-beaten on his two starts in handicaps, the first is excusable as more positive tactics were used and after being too keen, he just didn’t get home. Last time out on soft ground, his rider accepted defeat quite early on and you really needed to be up with the speed in that contest to challenge, so his task would have been pretty difficult anyway. Today he drops into a 0-65 for the first time, having had his previous two starts in a 0-85 and 0-75 and it isn’t uncommon for horses to improve bundles for such a drop in grade. Faster ground won’t be an issue and on his aforementioned effort over 6f in a seller back in July, this 7f is sure to suit. It’s a little bit chancy this bet but I’m convinced that China Excels will go off well-backed at some point and go very close, and now dropping in grade, going up in trip and encountering better ground, is worth investment at a huge price. Bets 17:05 Newmarket – Crown Choice; 2pts @ 22/1 Bet365 17:25 Catterick – China Excels; 2pts @ 28/1 William Hill Take Best Odds Guaranteed where available.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 22nd September 2:20 Ayr: Klynch 1pt win 33/1 Bet365 This course and distance winner has not been near the frame on his last four runs, however there is a chance is largely due to the going rather than being out of form. As a result Klynch has dropped to his last winning mark and while it does require a fair leap of faith to see a sudden return to form, with conditions to suit he might just bounce back. 3:30 Ayr: Our Jonathan 1pt win 11/1 & The Cheka 1pt win 16/1 Both Bet365 Our Jonathan was a convincing winner of this last year off virtually the same mark in soft conditions, the going looks softer still today and he is treading the same route to this race and while he is not in such good form as last year a mini revival will see him involved again. The Cheka is likley to make a bold bid from the front and is a Group horse in a handicap. If he gets away he may take some pulling back and the going looks fine.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 22nd September Cant believe not one punter has put this up, from what i can see anyways. Trainer W.Haggas only sends the two runners for Ayr but no doubt the one they want is the Gold Cup, they could be about to make history in the first female ever to win the Gold Cup as female jockey Kelly Harrison takes the ride. Kelly Harrison knows her way around Ayr race course very well and she has an AMAZING chance of going into the history books today, trainer W.Haggas has stuck this 3yr old gelding aside for today as he's not been seen just over 80 days, very lightly raced with only the 7 runs and is almost guaranteed to love the ground and a must for any short list. Coming out gate 2 is a bit of an unknown but good ground seems to favor high draws and soft/heavy ground seems to favor low draws, but time will tell on that theory. Ayr Gold Cup 3:30 - SHOLAAN - Wins the Ayr Gold Cup. shop around for the 14/1 & 16/1 !

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 22nd September 16.55 Newbury: Capo Rosso 12/1 Bet365 Just surprised to see such a big price available for Capo Rosso as I feel he is very progressive and despite a 2lb rise in the mark for a 3rd place at Haydock recently I think he can improve further. He was probably the best horse in the Haydock race two weeks ago but had a real horror run. He was pretty much short of room from 3f out on and was also hampered by the eventual winner a bit later. When he finally found a bit of daylight deep inside the final furlong the bird was flown but it was impressive how he still ran on to finish third. He confirmed the good impression which he gave at Haydock in August when he won on his handicap debut - a form which works out very well. 17.30 Newbury: Serene Oasis @ 18/1 VC Serene Oasis is in really good form. She ran very well in the last couple of weeks. That she contested in competitive and good races is very much confirmed by how well these forms working out with loads of next time out winners. She really caught my eye at Epsom one week ago though. She raced very prominently or better to say was leading the field together with Aldermoor. They set a very fast pace and must have used loads of energy in the early stages yet Serene Oasis travelled very well till nearly the 2f marker. She had no chance with the winner in the end but held on gamely to finish fourth beaten only by 3 lengths in the end. This form is franked by Lutine Charlie, who finished third in this race, and who won at Brighton yesterday. Serene Oasis gets a bit of a chance by the handicapper today as she gets another pound off her mark which sees her only 3lb above her last winning mark. Martin Harley is booked and is riding very well at the moment so I expect a good run by Serene Oasis today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 22nd September 3.10 Newbury - 2pts win Blue Surf @ 7/1 (Bet365) I just wonder if Kirthill's York success suggests he will need that 1m4f trip again to score off his higher mark and I think the value comes in the shape of Amanda Perrett's 3-year-old. He is a progressive sort who I watched with interest in the hugely competitive 3yo handicap at Ascot a fortnight ago. I didn't have an investment in the race and I'm glad I didn't as it was a horrible affair with many hard-luck stories. One of which was this horse who appeared to be going well enough on the inside when suffering interference. His chance went and he finished in midfield. He returns to 1m2f today, for all I think he will stay 1m4f, and this is the distance over which he has registered his two career successes. His most recent of which was quite nice as he travelled very strongly at Goodwood before quickening away with the runner-up and edging on close home. The pair were clear and that 2nd has subsequently gone well. He shaped as if a more testing track wouldn't be an issue as he stretched at the finish and I don't think a 5lb climb in the weights is too much of an issue. I think the older horses may struggle to give the weight for age allowance to him and out of the younger horses I think he has the best chance. James Doyle a very good jockey on board.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 22nd September 3.30 Ayr - 1pt win Captain Ramius @ 18/1 (Bet365) One horse who will definitely have no issue with today's testing conditions is Kevin Ryan's 100-rated gelding who is very much at home on soft ground. He remains 5lbs higher than for his last win which was a comfortable success at Newmarket last year but recent efforts have suggested he isn't far away from striking once more and he goes especially well at this time of year with all six career successes coming in the late summer and early Autumn. Having returned from Meydan this year he was first on his side of the track over 7f at Newmarket on heavy ground by 3l in a nice race - that was a fine effort after a six-month absence and I think the drop down to 6 on quicker ground at Ripon wasn't ideal last time. I think he needs the ground to be on the softer side to be competitive over this trip in big events but he still ran a good race. This track on this ground will help and the fact he stays further is advantageous. He's in good form and has a top jockey in Pat Smullen on board. He should run another good race and fingers crossed the conditions will bring out victory in him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 22nd September 4.30 Newmarket - 3pts win Ibtahaj @ 7/2 (Ladbrokes) I could be wrong but I think Jacob Cats may not have much more scope off his current mark now and I'm much more interested in another 3yo here which is the Godolphin runner. I believe there is more to come off a mark of 96 and he hasn't done much more in his relatively short career to date. After putting in a promising debut run he bombed out on his return in 2012 on soft ground before chasing home a horse now rated in the 100s and then ran away with a poor maiden at Brighton and a handicap at Kempton. Easily won the latter off 85 (unchallenged) and on another day would have landed a hat-trick off 91 there next time out. However, he was slowly away and this led to him being restrained rather than going forward as per usual. He took a hold and was headed late on once committed. The winner won again off 6lbs higher next time and my selection is just 5lbs higher today and given lots went wrong for him I think he'll go extremely close this afternoon returned to a more positive ride from Dettori.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 22nd September *Jeer - Wolverhampton 9:20* Course form can be vital at this track, and apart from the favourite, Jeer is the only other course winner, a 2 time course and distance winner at this track. Won off a mark of 66 here in February, and runs of 65 today. Not only that, but has a 7 pound claimer on board, so is effectively 8 pounds lighter now. Big chance if it can get back near it's best. *1 Point WIN @ 10/1 Bet365 BOG*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 22nd September

2.20 Ayr: William Hill Ayr Silver Cup (Class 3) (6f) Very competitive as you would expect and the favourite Highland Colori will have plenty of followers but doesn’t represent much value to me at around 8/1. I like Lightning Cloud from the Ryan yard, never runs a bad race and I do like the Wokingham form in the context of this race, he’s drawn 21 but should get a good tow into the race from fast starter Valery Borzov in 18. As an alternative I have to put Mass Rally in there, has to be produced on the line but is running well and should be thereabouts. Selections: 1pt EW Lightning Cloud 16/1

>Betfred (first 5)

1pt EW Mass Rally 16/1

>Bet365 (first 5)

Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/ayr-betting-ryan-to-strike-with-lightning-cloud-in-silver-cup-at-ayr

Well done Boss! Am glad someone put the monkey up after the amount of unlucky tips on him that have passed through the forum this season.:ok
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 22nd September

*Jeer - Wolverhampton 9:20* Course form can be vital at this track, and apart from the favourite, Jeer is the only other course winner, a 2 time course and distance winner at this track. Won off a mark of 66 here in February, and runs of 65 today. Not only that, but has a 7 pound claimer on board, so is effectively 8 pounds lighter now. Big chance if it can get back near it's best. *1 Point WIN @ 10/1 Bet365 BOG*
I can't believe that ended up 12/1, crazy price. Cheers Jeers! :nana
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 22nd September

I can't believe that ended up 12/1' date=' crazy price. Cheers Jeers! :nana[/quote'] Well done to all those with winners yesterday, great price with that one too Aidy. Ben - was there actually any 33's available at all on the one you put up? I got a RP in the morning and noticed Pricewise had put the horse up at 33's. I know a few bookies will guarantee that price for around 10 mins but I'm sure it'll only be to a few quid anyway. It feels a bit of a con that he puts up the horse at 33's, best price anyone else seems to get is about 20's (apart from conditions mentioned above) or 16's etc. Very happy with my two but didn't have much on as I couldn't get to a bookies. Backed them online but been doing some cash betting lately and got a nice wallet full of cash since Donny where funnily enough Black Spirit gave me a belting return. I was on a coach from 8.15am and there was no bookies at the services. Still to see the races yet, had the commentary of the Melody Of Love race and was shouting it home from the Oxford United stadium. :D
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 22nd September

Well done to all those with winners yesterday, great price with that one too Aidy. Ben - was there actually any 33's available at all on the one you put up? I got a RP in the morning and noticed Pricewise had put the horse up at 33's. I know a few bookies will guarantee that price for around 10 mins but I'm sure it'll only be to a few quid anyway. It feels a bit of a con that he puts up the horse at 33's, best price anyone else seems to get is about 20's (apart from conditions mentioned above) or 16's etc. Very happy with my two but didn't have much on as I couldn't get to a bookies. Backed them online but been doing some cash betting lately and got a nice wallet full of cash since Donny where funnily enough Black Spirit gave me a belting return. I was on a coach from 8.15am and there was no bookies at the services. Still to see the races yet, had the commentary of the Melody Of Love race and was shouting it home from the Oxford United stadium. :D
No idea mate. I was pretty tired the night before so only put one up and looked at the race in the morning but I thought 18/1 was a fair price so assumed if Pricewise had him he'd be shorter. I certainly wouldn't have priced him up as a 33/1 shot though!
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...