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Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt...


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Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt...

I have an excel file that I use to create ratings. The methodology of how that is calculated I only answer very limited questions on' date=' but it is a combination of league positions, home team's home form, away team's away form, last 6 current form (less at the start of the season obviously)[/quote'] So the ratings are based on form? OK, thanks - and good luck with it. From a brief read, it looks as though it may be working for you.
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Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt...

Ratings including Scottish: 28 Partick Hamilton 26 Forest Green Hyde 26 Swansea Sunderland
Sorry Fleet - can I have one more question? These are the first three lines of your table for this weekend. But what is the bet? Home team? Away team? Just reading back down the thread, I think that these are your form rankings, in order of home team superiority. So the most likely home win is Partick and the least likely (at the bottom of the list, Crystal Palace. The presumably you work out value when you get the odds - is that right?
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Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... Yes the ratings are listed from strongest home to weakest home. I state weakest home, as there is an inbuilt bias in my ratings towards the home sides. Reason is that even the top sides lose away from home more than when playing at home. So although I use the opponents of the weakest homes, technically they are not necessarily the strongest aways, as such, simply that they are playing away to poor sides. As for value... above 1/2 for the strongest rated teams is, imo, value. Rather back them than a 1/6 shot such as Man Utd at home. I posted the selections for the weekend after I reposted the ratings to include Scottish teams as requested - I only use the English sides.

Banks now: Trebles +/-: -£10 Canadians £1017.27 (+/-: +£76.63) With odds of 1/2, 6/5, 1/1 & 1/1 for the 4 English teams that rate 25+, that means again no treble. Canadian of Doubles: (1 home / 1 away from each division whenever possible) Each Pair (A/B/C/D/E) permed into 4/6/8/10 folds. A: Gateshead 5/4 Gillingham 21/20 B: Hereford 11/10 Man Utd 11/20 C: Northampton 17/10 Nott'm F 39/40 D: Sheff Wed 31/20 Swansea 6/5 E: Swindon 29/20 Tranmere 1/1 Fast becoming a 'BetVictor' thread... >Betvictor: 26 bets @ 70p = £18.20 staked.
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Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt...

Cheers mate! I would like to try and develop my own system, would you be willing to advise me please?
A system can only include what the creator wants it to include... so I am not sure what you require. I stick to league table difference, score a 1-0 win lower than a 3-0 win... away wins are awarded more than home wins, home defeats punished more than an away defeat... rate a draw differently for home sides compared to away sides... ...used to drive me mad calculating it all by hand every week... until somebody automated it for me in an excel file. I am currently (finally!) spending time trying to learn excel more, so I can do more than just edit the existing files lol
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Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt...

Yes the ratings are listed from strongest home to weakest home. I state weakest home, as there is an inbuilt bias in my ratings towards the home sides. Reason is that even the top sides lose away from home more than when playing at home. So although I use the opponents of the weakest homes, technically they are not necessarily the strongest aways, as such, simply that they are playing away to poor sides. As for value... above 1/2 for the strongest rated teams is, imo, value. Rather back them than a 1/6 shot such as Man Utd at home. I posted the selections for the weekend after I reposted the ratings to include Scottish teams as requested - I only use the English sides.
Thanks for the explanation. So Swansea, at no. 3 in your list, and available at 6/5 to beat Sunderland, are one of your picks for this weekend.
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Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt...

Thanks Fleet - I'll be following with interest
Surprised you've not seen Fleet's thread before, been here a while and i use it as a great cross check for my shortlists... Fleet I have a formula set up and going to apply it for next weekend, using the football-data website to get results. One thing that is a pain, i have to manually calculate the final match rating as i can't seem to find something to populate teams next fixture, i get all the way to calculating each teams individual rating.
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Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... Fleet, Been following this thread with interest so far this season, also read through last seasons ratings thread. I just wanted to ask, tell me to mind my own business but would you consider instead of putting the teams A-Z instead putting them in ratings order? I've not been through the threads to see what would happen to the results but I'd be very interested to see if it's something you've considered. Keep up the excellent work.

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Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt...

Surprised you've not seen Fleet's thread before, been here a while and i use it as a great cross check for my shortlists... Fleet I have a formula set up and going to apply it for next weekend, using the football-data website to get results. One thing that is a pain, i have to manually calculate the final match rating as i can't seem to find something to populate teams next fixture, i get all the way to calculating each teams individual rating.
My fixtures have to be put in manually, in a grid format, but it's a simple arrow keys, hit y, arrow keys, hit y... highlight a whole division (not the team names obviously) & delete to be ready for new ratings. [ATTACH=CONFIG]2995[/ATTACH] The results are scraped by a separate results grabber, and I just copy & paste the 5 columns I need into the correct division tab. [ATTACH=CONFIG]2996[/ATTACH] The moment a fixture is marked in the grid, the rating is generated automatically... all those tabs have a lot of formulas & data hidden off screen (accessible by scrolling...there's roughly 80 columns on the league tabs!... here's the same PL tab with a different part on display.) [ATTACH=CONFIG]2997[/ATTACH] I also have it laid out in another file to include 2 divisions in Italy, France, Germany & Spain, top division in Belgium, Holland, Portugal, Turkey & Greece... but most of the time I lose interest in those leagues. I also set one up to do the non-league divisions, Blue Sq North/South & the 3 feeder leagues below those... but have yet to find a decent site to either scrape or copy & paste the results from, so don't tend to use them either...

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Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt...

Fleet, Been following this thread with interest so far this season, also read through last seasons ratings thread. I just wanted to ask, tell me to mind my own business but would you consider instead of putting the teams A-Z instead putting them in ratings order? I've not been through the threads to see what would happen to the results but I'd be very interested to see if it's something you've considered. Keep up the excellent work.
I think the reason I chose A to Z was to jumble them up little, as the treble when there is one, is based on the strength of ratings. Of course, if all 10 win then it wouldn't matter lol. Best so far is an 8fold, twice.
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Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt...

Surprised you've not seen Fleet's thread before' date=' been here a while[/quote'] I'm sure I've seen the title before. I think I might even have glanced at the thread. But there are a lot of threads about systems, or people thinking about systems. so it's sometimes hard to find the better ones (like this one :))
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Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt...

Banks now: Trebles +/-: -£10 Canadians £1017.27 (+/-: +£76.63) With odds of 1/2, 6/5, 1/1 & 1/1 for the 4 English teams that rate 25+, that means again no treble. Canadian of Doubles: (1 home / 1 away from each division whenever possible) Each Pair (A/B/C/D/E) permed into 4/6/8/10 folds. A: Gateshead 5/4 :clap Gillingham 21/20 :wall B: Hereford 11/10 :@ Man Utd 11/20 C: Northampton 17/10 :@ Nott'm F 39/40 :clap D: Sheff Wed 31/20 :@ Swansea 6/5 :wall E: Swindon 29/20 Tranmere 1/1 :clap Fast becoming a 'BetVictor' thread... >Betvictor: 26 bets @ 70p = £18.20 staked.
Bad day at the office, but it's a marathon not a sprint. Banks now: Trebles +/-: -£10 Canadians £999.07 (+/-: +£58.43)
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Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... Weekend Ratings: 32 Yeovil Bournemouth 28 Crawley Town Portsmouth 25 Swindon Leyton Orient 23 Newport County Stockport 19 Macclesfield Braintree Town 19 Accrington Bradford 18 Notts County Shrewsbury 17 York Chesterfield 15 Brentford Colchester 11 Torquay Plymouth 11 Rochdale Burton 10 Tamworth Barrow 9 Gateshead Dartford 9 Port Vale Rotherham 9 Morecambe Fleetwood Town 6 Oxford Exeter 6 Northampton AFC Wimbledon 5 Southend Dag and Red 5 Hartlepool Carlisle 0 Woking Nuneaton -1 AFC Telford Utd Lincoln -3 Grimsby Forest Green -6 Cambridge Wrexham -8 Walsall Milton Keynes Dons -10 Wycombe Cheltenham -12 Bristol Rvs Aldershot -12 Crewe Tranmere -15 Hyde Hereford -15 Bury Preston -17 Coventry Stevenage -20 Kidderminster Southport -23 Ebbsfleet Mansfield -23 Alfreton Town Luton -31 Scunthorpe Sheffield United -35 Barnet Gillingham Yeovil too big, Swindon too short... there'll be no treble anyway. I'll sort out the canadian when I've seen the BSP odds. Prob tomorrow.

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Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... Banks now: Trebles +/-: -£10 Canadians £999.07 (+/-: +£58.43) As mentioned, no treble. Canadian of Doubles: (1 home / 1 away from each division whenever possible - not possible, 1 pair from each division + the 2 strongest home/away not already included) Each Pair (A/B/C/D/E) permed into 4/6/8/10 folds. A: Accrington 24/13 Crawley 28/29 B: Gillingham 8/9 Luton 13/18 C: Macclesfield 5/7 Mansfield 66/67 D: Newport 9/11 Sheff Utd 1/1 E: Southport 23/9 Yeovil 23/15 Pinnacle: 26 bets @ 70p = £18.20 staked.

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Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt...

Banks now: Trebles +/-: -£10 Canadians £999.07 (+/-: +£58.43) As mentioned, no treble. Canadian of Doubles: (1 home / 1 away from each division whenever possible - not possible, 1 pair from each division + the 2 strongest home/away not already included) Each Pair (A/B/C/D/E) permed into 4/6/8/10 folds. A: Accrington 24/13 :wall Crawley 28/29 B: Gillingham 8/9 :clap Luton 13/18 :@ C: Macclesfield 5/7 :clap Mansfield 66/67 :@ D: Newport 9/11 :wall Sheff Utd 1/1 :wall E: Southport 23/9 :wall Yeovil 23/15 :@ Pinnacle: 26 bets @ 70p = £18.20 staked.
OK we were obviously asking for too much... until next time :)
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Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... Banks now: Trebles +/-: -£10 Canadians £980.87 (+/-: +£40.23) Weekend Ratings (Thurs-Mon) inc Scottish: 40 Tranmere Coventry 34 Gillingham Bristol Rvs 29 Sheffield United Bury 26 Forest Green Alfreton Town 26 Nott'm Forest Birmingham 23 Forfar Brechin 21 Exeter York 20 Cowdenbeath Morton 19 Dundee United Ross County 19 Fleetwood Town Northampton 18 Bradford Barnet 18 Arsenal Southampton 17 Arbroath East Fife 16 Alloa Stenhousemuir 14 Hibernian Kilmarnock 14 Stevenage Crewe 13 Rotherham Torquay 13 Brighton Sheffield Weds 11 Raith Rvs Airdrie Utd 11 Gateshead Tamworth 11 Hull Millwall 11 Everton Newcastle 10 Elgin Peterhead 9 Dartford Hereford 8 St Mirren Hearts 8 Mansfield Braintree Town 8 Cheltenham Southend 8 Charlton Crystal Palace 8 Sunderland Liverpool 7 Shrewsbury Scunthorpe 6 Preston Crawley Town 6 Middlesbrough Ipswich 5 Queens Park Clyde 5 Luton Wrexham 5 Cardiff Leeds 5 Man United Wigan 3 Bournemouth Hartlepool 3 Huddersfield Derby 2 Annan Athletic Rangers 2 Cambridge AFC Telford Utd 2 Bristol City Blackburn 1 Carlisle Swindon -1 Burnley Peterboro -2 Southport Ebbsfleet -3 Albion Rvs Stranraer -3 Livingston Partick -3 Hamilton Falkirk -3 Inverness C Aberdeen -3 Chesterfield Wycombe -3 Milton Keynes Dons Yeovil -4 Montrose Berwick -4 Reading Tottenham -4 Fulham West Brom -5 Stockport Woking -6 Stoke Man City -7 Portsmouth Walsall -8 Lincoln Hyde -8 AFC Wimbledon Rochdale -8 Wolves Leicester -8 Bolton Watford -9 Burton Oxford -11 Norwich West Ham -13 Ayr Queen of Sth -13 Dundee Motherwell -13 Colchester Doncaster -13 Barnsley Blackpool -14 St Johnstone Celtic -16 Aldershot Morecambe -17 Plymouth Port Vale -19 Leyton Orient Brentford -21 Nuneaton Macclesfield -22 Barrow Newport County -22 Aston Villa Swansea -24 East Stirling Stirling -24 Kidderminster Grimsby -25 QPR Chelsea -26 Oldham Notts County -28 Dag and Red Accrington -30 Dumbarton Dunfermline Edit: Selections will be posted tomorrow, just want to wait to see if they change much, as we're one team short for a treble after filtering via the rules on odds, and I find it hard to believe that Tranmere aren't shorter than evens tbh.

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Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... Sorry, slightly later than planned, but no matches feature tonight anyway. Banks now: Trebles +/-: -£10 Canadians £980.87 (+/-: +£40.23) Only Gillingham & Forest Green meet the odds criteria, so no treble. Canadian of Doubles: (1 home / 1 away from each division whenever possible) Each Pair (A/B/C/D/E) permed into 4/6/8/10 folds. A: Accrington 41/19 Blackpool 1/1 B: Chelsea 13/15 Everton 10/13 C: Forest Green 7/11 Gillingham 5/6 D: Grimsby 26/19 Nott'm F 19/16 E: Notts County 26/19 Tranmere 12/11 Pinnacle 26 bets @ 70p = £18.20 staked. If you're popping into the high street, William Hill are (currently) only 2 pts behind for the 10-fold (1614.04 vs 1612.2)

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Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt...

Sorry' date= slightly later than planned, but no matches feature tonight anyway. Banks now: Trebles +/-: -£10 Canadians £980.87 (+/-: +£40.23) Only Gillingham & Forest Green meet the odds criteria, so no treble. Canadian of Doubles: (1 home / 1 away from each division whenever possible) Each Pair (A/B/C/D/E) permed into 4/6/8/10 folds. A: Accrington 41/19 :wall Blackpool 1/1 :wall B: Chelsea 13/15 :wall Everton 10/13 :wall C: Forest Green 7/11 :wall Gillingham 5/6 :clap D: Grimsby 26/19 :wall Nott'm F 19/16 :wall E: Notts County 26/19 :wall Tranmere 12/11 :clap Pinnacle 26 bets @ 70p = £18.20 staked. If you're popping into the high street, William Hill are (currently) only 2 pts behind for the 10-fold (1614.04 vs 1612.2)
Not a single team lost... but EIGHT draws... wow I should do the pools... see you during the week. Banks now: Trebles +/-: -£10 Canadians £962.67 (+/-: +£22.03)
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Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... Slightly later than I'd hoped: Midweek Ratings: 48 Tranmere Bury 32 Exeter Wycombe 26 Gillingham Southend 25 Blackburn Barnsley 21 Rotherham Rochdale 20 Blackpool Middlesbrough 18 Bradford Morecambe 13 Fleetwood Town Port Vale 11 Preston Hartlepool 9 Sheffield United Doncaster 8 Burton York 6 Derby Charlton 4 Stevenage Walsall 2 Aldershot Barnet 2 Leicester Burnley 1 Milton Keynes Dons Notts County 1 Carlisle Crewe -1 Shrewsbury Coventry -1 Sheffield Weds Huddersfield -2 Plymouth Bristol Rvs -4 Oldham Scunthorpe -4 Bournemouth Brentford -4 Leeds Hull -5 Cheltenham Oxford -7 Portsmouth Swindon -10 Chesterfield Accrington -11 Birmingham Bolton -12 AFC Wimbledon Torquay -13 Millwall Cardiff -14 Crystal Palace Nott'm Forest -16 Leyton Orient Yeovil -16 Ipswich Wolves -17 Dag and Red Northampton -18 Watford Brighton -24 Peterboro Bristol City -31 Colchester Crawley Town Bets to follow shortly...

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Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... Banks now: Trebles +/-: -£10 Canadians £962.67 (+/-: +£22.03) Treble: (Gillingham are below 1/1 at Bet365, thus qualifies) 48 Tranmere 4/6 32 Exeter 17/20 26 Gillingham 1/1 WillHill: £10 staked in an attempt to return £61.67 Canadian of Doubles: (1 home / 1 away from each division whenever possible - not possible) Each Pair (A/B/C/D/E) permed into 4/6/8/10 folds. A: Blackpool 3/4 Brighton 19/13 B: Bristol C 35/19 Crawley 25/18 C: Exeter 4/5 Gillingham 66/67 D: Northampton 47/23 Rotherham14/19 E: Tranmere 7/11 Wolves 7/3 Yep, it's Pinnacle 26 bets @ 70p = £18.20 staked.

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Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt...

Banks now: Trebles +/-: -£10 Canadians £962.67 (+/-: +£22.03) Treble: (Gillingham are below 1/1 at Bet365, thus qualifies) 48 Tranmere 4/6 :clap 32 Exeter 17/20 :clap 26 Gillingham 1/1 :clap WillHill: £10 staked in an attempt to return £61.67 :clap :ok Canadian of Doubles: (1 home / 1 away from each division whenever possible - not possible) Each Pair (A/B/C/D/E) permed into 4/6/8/10 folds. A: Blackpool 3/4 :clap Brighton 19/13 :clap B: Bristol C 35/19 :clap Crawley 25/18 :wall C: Exeter 4/5 :clap Gillingham 66/67 :clap D: Northampton 47/23 :clap Rotherham14/19 :@ E: Tranmere 7/11 :clap Wolves 7/3 :clap Yep, it's Pinnacle 26 bets @ 70p = £18.20 staked.
And that's why we take the rough with the smooth... 8 out of 10... treble landed & Wolves make the canadian returns a 6-fold & 3 x 4-folds. :clap
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Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... So the treble returned £61.67, a profit of £51.57. :ok That means that the next treble stake will be 51.57/2 = £25.79 Canadian: AC £10.77 AE £16.45 CE £13.64 ACE £58.77 Total returned £99.63, a profit of £81.43. :ok Banks now: Trebles +/-: +£41.47 Canadians £1044.10 (+/-: +£103.46)

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Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... Moving on, the weekend ratings: 28 Partick Cowdenbeath 27 Rangers Montrose 27 Chelsea Stoke 26 Blackburn Middlesbrough 25 Dundee United Hearts 25 Notts County Portsmouth 25 Blackpool Huddersfield 24 Dunfermline Livingston 24 Newport County Southport 24 West Brom Reading 23 Hibernian Inverness C 23 Wrexham Dartford 18 Elgin Queens Park 18 Celtic Dundee 18 Port Vale Gillingham 18 West Ham Sunderland 17 Rochdale Dag and Red 16 Alfreton Town Kidderminster 15 Accrington Aldershot 15 Swindon Bournemouth 15 Derby Burnley 13 Ross County St Johnstone 13 Swansea Everton 12 Arbroath Forfar 12 Macclesfield Forest Green 11 Berwick Stirling 11 Alloa Stranraer 11 Tottenham QPR 10 Northampton Chesterfield 10 Brentford Oldham 9 Tamworth Lincoln 9 Grimsby Luton 8 Birmingham Barnsley 7 Morton Raith Rvs 7 Newcastle Norwich 7 Man City Arsenal 5 Hereford Cambridge 3 Braintree Town Stockport 3 York Cheltenham 2 Yeovil Sheffield United 1 Crewe Leyton Orient 0 Hyde Nuneaton 0 Morecambe Plymouth 0 Walsall Preston -1 East Fife Ayr -1 Albion Rvs Stenhousemuir -1 Kilmarnock St Mirren -1 Torquay Burton -1 Crawley Town Tranmere -3 Wycombe AFC Wimbledon -3 Sheffield Weds Bolton -3 Leicester Hull -4 Annan Athletic Peterhead -4 Aberdeen Motherwell -5 Brechin Queen of Sth -5 Woking Gateshead -5 Ebbsfleet Barrow -6 Falkirk Airdrie Utd -6 Scunthorpe Colchester -6 Hartlepool Shrewsbury -6 Doncaster Stevenage -6 Wigan Fulham -7 Southend Exeter -7 Ipswich Charlton -10 Leeds Nott'm Forest -11 East Stirling Clyde -12 AFC Telford Utd Mansfield -13 Oxford Bradford -16 Crystal Palace Cardiff -18 Watford Bristol City -19 Southampton Aston Villa -21 Coventry Carlisle -22 Liverpool Man United -23 Dumbarton Hamilton -27 Barnet Rotherham -27 Bury Milton Keynes Dons -27 Millwall Brighton -31 Bristol Rvs Fleetwood Town -37 Peterboro Wolves Selections to follow this evening...

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Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... Banks now: Trebles +/-: +£41.47 Canadians £1044.10 (+/-: +£103.46) Treble: 26 Blackburn 8/9 25 Notts County 8/13 25 Blackpool 13/18 pinnacle: £25.79 staked in an attempt to return £135.53 Canadian of Doubles: (1 home / 1 away from each division whenever possible) Each Pair (A/B/C/D/E) permed into 4/6/8/10 folds. A: Blackburn 8/9 Fleetwood Town 9/7 B: Man Utd 9/5 Mansfield 14/11 C: MK Dons 68/67 Newport 3/5 D: Notts County 8/13 Port Vale 23/18 E: West Brom 16/19 Wolves 11/9 Yep, it's Pinnacle again 26 bets @ 70p = £18.20 staked.

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