FleetFanatic Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Well here we are, a new season, a new thread raring to go. I aim to keep this thread for a few years now I've settled on a formula. Usual thing re: ratings, although we are starting earlier than normal. Until all sides have played 2 games, each division's selections are partially based on last season. As soon as 2 games have been played (conference already are), then based on this season. Trebles will be the usual £10 stake, with bank half/stake half after any win as usual. The canadians are now based on a long term formula. Last year we staked £13 per bet. If we based that on paying in £13 a week for a year (thus covering midweeks where possible) then 13 x 52 = £676 Last year's profit was £264.64, so we add to that yearly figure, making a total of £940.64. In other words, for this season, we are playing with last season's money, a nice position to be in. :ok Divide that by 52, gives a weekly stake of £18.08. Divide by the 26 bets, that comes out at just under 70p per unit. So this year's stake for the canadians will be 70p x 26 = £18.20. Seeing as last year's canadian profit was the equivalent of a 39% increase to the pot described above, I'd settle for that again this year. :ok Any questions? Then feel free to post before I return tomorrow with the first ratings / selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
f0r3st727 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... Well here we are, a new season, a new thread raring to go. I aim to keep this thread for a few years now I've settled on a formula. Usual thing re: ratings, although we are starting earlier than normal. Until all sides have played 2 games, each division's selections are partially based on last season. As soon as 2 games have been played (conference already are), then based on this season. Trebles will be the usual £10 stake, with bank half/stake half after any win as usual. The canadians are now based on a long term formula. Last year we staked £13 per bet. If we based that on paying in £13 a week for a year (thus covering midweeks where possible) then 13 x 52 = £676 Last year's profit was £264.64, so we add to that yearly figure, making a total of £940.64. In other words, for this season, we are playing with last season's money, a nice position to be in. :ok Divide that by 52, gives a weekly stake of £18.08. Divide by the 26 bets, that comes out at just under 70p per unit. So this year's stake for the canadians will be 70p x 26 = £18.20. Seeing as last year's canadian profit was the equivalent of a 39% increase to the pot described above, I'd settle for that again this year. :ok Any questions? Then feel free to post before I return tomorrow with the first ratings / selections. there is already a lot of leagues, where 2 matches has been played… :) GL :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... looking forward fleet will follow from start :hope gl:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted August 15, 2012 Author Share Posted August 15, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... there is already a lot of leagues, where 2 matches has been played… :) GL :)We only use Premier League, Championship, League 1, League 2 & Conference for this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted August 15, 2012 Author Share Posted August 15, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... Ratings: PL, CH, L1 & L2 based on last season, BSP based on this season. 59 Man City Southampton 43 Southend Accrington 38 Cheltenham Dag and Red 38 Milton Keynes Dons Oldham 36 Sheffield United Shrewsbury 33 Gillingham Bradford 32 Arsenal Sunderland 30 Port Vale Barnet 30 Birmingham Charlton 29 Leicester Peterboro 27 Cardiff Huddersfield 26 Stevenage Carlisle 21 Rotherham Burton 20 Newport County Lincoln 16 Tranmere Leyton Orient 16 Hull Brighton 15 Macclesfield Dartford 14 Cambridge Southport 13 Newcastle Tottenham 13 Fulham Norwich 11 Derby Sheffield Weds 11 West Ham Aston Villa 10 Crawley Town Scunthorpe 9 Gateshead Forest Green 9 Bristol Rvs Oxford 8 Rochdale Northampton 7 Reading Stoke 7 Everton Man United 4 Millwall Blackpool 3 Bury Brentford 2 Woking Barrow 2 Ipswich Blackburn 2 Burnley Bolton 1 AFC Wimbledon Chesterfield 1 Portsmouth Bournemouth 1 QPR Swansea 0 York Wycombe 0 Preston Colchester 0 Nott'm Forest Bristol City -1 Exeter Morecambe -1 Wigan Chelsea -2 Grimsby Nuneaton -2 Ebbsfleet Wrexham -2 Yeovil Coventry -2 Leeds Wolves -3 Tamworth Stockport -5 Kidderminster Mansfield -6 Hartlepool Swindon -7 Crewe Notts County -8 West Brom Liverpool -12 Walsall Doncaster -14 Alfreton Town Hereford -15 AFC Telford Utd Braintree Town -15 Crystal Palace Watford -16 Hyde Luton -16 Plymouth Aldershot -16 Fleetwood Town Torquay -27 Barnsley Middlesbrough Selections to follow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted August 15, 2012 Author Share Posted August 15, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... One other change. Whilst the system is based on bet365 odds, we shall be shopping about to find the best odds. For the complication of the canadian, it is assumed that all teams will win :D thus it is the best odds combined for all 10 teams that decides which bookmaker to go with. Banks now: Trebles +/-: £0 Canadians £940.64 (+/-: £0) Treble: remembering to apply the above 1/2 and below evens at bet365 rules... Southend 4/5 Cheltenham 10/11 MK Dons 8/11 Coral: £10 staked in an attempt to return £59.36 Canadian of Doubles: (1 home / 1 away from each division whenever possible) Each Pair (A/B/C/D/E) permed into 4/6/8/10 folds. A: Aldershot 11/5 Birmingham 17/20 B: Cheltenham 17/20 Doncaster 6/4 C: Fulham 17/20 Liverpool 37/40 D: Luton 4/5 Middlesbrough 5/4 E: MK Dons 13/20 Newport County 1/1 BetVictor: 26 bets @ 70p = £18.20 staked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... i know this is silly but how do you do f/c double canaidian on footy games on bet 365 i can only do doubles help:Dplz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted August 16, 2012 Author Share Posted August 16, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... You have to do each double, each 4fold, each 6fold, each 8fold & the 10 fold as separate bets. With practice you can get them all done in a few minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banjo Sandwich Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... Good luck for the new season Fleet! As always will be following with interest and cherry picking some selections from your shortlists... Interesting you are maximizing betting odds with other bookies but still applying the BET365 rules for the shortlist... Any particular reason? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted August 17, 2012 Author Share Posted August 17, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... Because the system has always been based on bet365's odds. But we might as well try & maximise the returns. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... Good luck as per usual Fleet, Following as usual Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted August 19, 2012 Author Share Posted August 19, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... One other change. Whilst the system is based on bet365 odds, we shall be shopping about to find the best odds. For the complication of the canadian, it is assumed that all teams will win :D thus it is the best odds combined for all 10 teams that decides which bookmaker to go with. Banks now: Trebles +/-: £0 Canadians £940.64 (+/-: £0) Treble: remembering to apply the above 1/2 and below evens at bet365 rules... Southend 4/5 :@ Cheltenham 10/11 :clap MK Dons 8/11 :clap Coral: £10 staked in an attempt to return £59.36 Canadian of Doubles: (1 home / 1 away from each division whenever possible) Each Pair (A/B/C/D/E) permed into 4/6/8/10 folds. A: Aldershot 11/5 :clap Birmingham 17/20 :wall B: Cheltenham 17/20 :clap Doncaster 6/4 :clap C: Fulham 17/20 :clap Liverpool 37/40 :@ D: Luton 4/5 :clap Middlesbrough 5/4 :@ E: MK Dons 13/20 :clap Newport County 1/1 :clap BetVictor: 26 bets @ 70p = £18.20 staked. One let down for the treble. Canadian returned 1 x 4fold of £10.68, a loss of £7.52. Banks now: Trebles +/-: -£10 Canadians £933.12 (+/-: -£7.52) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banjo Sandwich Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... Unlukcy Fleet! Still very promising from week 1 - I returned £20.00 profit after cherry picking a single, treble and 5-fold from most of your ratings! Southend was the single and the only team in the 5-fold to let me down - Where is Paul Sturrocks magical gift eh! Rotherham and Doncaster looked very impressive this weekend as well. Will you be doing mid-week games? Ta Luke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted August 20, 2012 Author Share Posted August 20, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... Well we have the midweek ratings. Following on last season but including this season's tacked on the end. It'll be the same for the weekend's Premiership ratings, with the rest becoming based on this season's only. 30 Blackpool Leeds 29 Aldershot Exeter 25 Notts County Hartlepool 25 Chelsea Reading 20 Watford Ipswich 16 Carlisle Tranmere 15 Dag and Red Plymouth 15 Oldham Walsall 15 Brentford Yeovil 8 Doncaster Bury 6 Colchester Portsmouth 6 Wolves Barnsley 5 Morecambe York 5 Bristol City Crystal Palace 4 Torquay Cheltenham 1 Wycombe Gillingham 0 Bradford Fleetwood Town -1 Swindon Crawley Town -2 Shrewsbury Preston -2 Huddersfield Nott'm Forest -2 Charlton Leicester -3 Barnet Bristol Rvs -3 Bournemouth Milton Keynes Dons -3 Middlesbrough Burnley -4 Chesterfield Rochdale -4 Burton AFC Wimbledon -4 Accrington Port Vale -5 Blackburn Hull -6 Bolton Derby -8 Oxford Southend -8 Brighton Cardiff -9 Sheffield Weds Birmingham -10 Northampton Rotherham -11 Scunthorpe Crewe -14 Peterboro Millwall -16 Coventry Sheffield United -24 Leyton Orient Stevenage There'll be no treble as Chelsea are too short, Blackpool are above evens, leaving only 2 teams rated 25+. I'll probably do a canadian even though there's no PL or BSP, as I tended to do so last season. Back soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted August 20, 2012 Author Share Posted August 20, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... So a bit of a speculative attempt midweek: Banks now: Trebles +/-: -£10 Canadians £933.12 (+/-: -£7.52) Canadian of Doubles: (1 home / 1 away from each division whenever possible) Each Pair (A/B/C/D/E) permed into 4/6/8/10 folds. A: Aldershot 1/1 Blackpool 23/20 B: Carlisle 6/5 Crewe 13/5 C: Millwall 9/5 Notts County 4/5 D: Rotherham 11/8 Sheff Utd 19/10 E: Stevenage 7/4 Watford 5/4 BetVictor: 26 bets @ 70p = £18.20 staked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted August 21, 2012 Author Share Posted August 21, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... So a bit of a speculative attempt midweek: Banks now: Trebles +/-: -£10 Canadians £933.12 (+/-: -£7.52) Canadian of Doubles: (1 home / 1 away from each division whenever possible) Each Pair (A/B/C/D/E) permed into 4/6/8/10 folds. A: Aldershot 1/1 :@ Blackpool 23/20 still playing, winning but irrelevant now B: Carlisle 6/5 :@ Crewe 13/5 :clap C: Millwall 9/5 :clap Notts County 4/5 :clap D: Rotherham 11/8 :@ Sheff Utd 19/10 :wall E: Stevenage 7/4 :clap Watford 5/4 :@ BetVictor: 26 bets @ 70p = £18.20 staked.Roll on the weekend. Banks now: Trebles +/-: -£10 Canadians £914.92 (+/-: -£25.72) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... Weekend Ratings: (Only PL is based partly on last season) 35 Man United Fulham 28 Oxford Plymouth 25 Notts County Walsall 25 Tottenham West Brom 23 Luton AFC Telford Utd 22 Northampton Southend 19 Swansea West Ham 19 Chelsea Newcastle 18 Hereford Ebbsfleet 17 Doncaster Crawley Town 17 Sheffield Weds Millwall 16 Accrington Exeter 16 Wolves Derby 15 Burton Fleetwood Town 14 Charlton Hull 13 Middlesbrough Crystal Palace 12 Wycombe Bristol Rvs 11 Morecambe Port Vale 11 Blackburn Leicester 10 Swindon Milton Keynes Dons 9 Wrexham Grimsby 7 Blackpool Ipswich 5 Stockport Gateshead 5 Coventry Bury 5 Bournemouth Preston 5 Watford Birmingham 5 Norwich QPR 3 Bradford AFC Wimbledon 1 Barrow Alfreton Town 1 Torquay Rochdale 0 Mansfield Hyde 0 Forest Green Woking 0 Bristol City Cardiff 0 Southampton Wigan -2 Aldershot Cheltenham -2 Sunderland Reading -4 Colchester Sheffield United -4 Brighton Barnsley -6 Barnet York -7 Bolton Nott'm Forest -8 Dartford Kidderminster -9 Lincoln Macclesfield -9 Shrewsbury Tranmere -11 Leyton Orient Hartlepool -12 Chesterfield Rotherham -12 Carlisle Portsmouth -12 Huddersfield Burnley -14 Braintree Town Newport County -14 Brentford Crewe -15 Southport Tamworth -15 Oldham Stevenage -16 Nuneaton Cambridge -16 Liverpool Man City -17 Peterboro Leeds -18 Stoke Arsenal -19 Aston Villa Everton -21 Dag and Red Gillingham -27 Scunthorpe Yeovil I can tell you now that Man Utd / Tottenham are both too short with bet365, so there'll be just the canadian this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... Banks now: Trebles +/-: -£10 Canadians £914.92 (+/-: -£25.72) Canadian of Doubles: (1 home / 1 away from each division whenever possible) Each Pair (A/B/C/D/E) permed into 4/6/8/10 folds. A:Cambridge 21/20 Everton 29/20 B: Gillingham 7/5 Hereford 13/20 C: Leeds 7/5 Notts County 31/40 D: Oxford 8/11 Sheff Wed 21/20 E: Swansea 11/10 Yeovil 5/2 BetVictor comes out on top again... >Betvictor: 26 bets @ 70p = £18.20 staked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted August 25, 2012 Author Share Posted August 25, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... Banks now: Trebles +/-: -£10 Canadians £914.92 (+/-: -£25.72) Canadian of Doubles: (1 home / 1 away from each division whenever possible) Each Pair (A/B/C/D/E) permed into 4/6/8/10 folds. A:Cambridge 21/20 :wall Everton 29/20 :clap B: Gillingham 7/5 :clap Hereford 13/20 :clap C: Leeds 7/5 :clap Notts County 31/40 :@ D: Oxford 8/11 :clap Sheff Wed 21/20 :clap E: Swansea 11/10 :clap Yeovil 5/2 :clap BetVictor comes out on top again... >Betvictor: 26 bets @ 70p = £18.20 staked.1 x 6fold and 3 x 4folds landed. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted August 25, 2012 Author Share Posted August 25, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... BD 9.82 BE 20.37 DE 18.22 BDE 72.14 Total returned £120.55, a profit of £102.35. :ok Banks now: Trebles +/-: -£10 Canadians £1017.27 (+/-: +£76.63) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... BD 9.82 BE 20.37 DE 18.22 BDE 72.14 Total returned £120.55, a profit of £102.35. :ok Banks now: Trebles +/-: -£10 Canadians £1017.27 (+/-: +£76.63) Nice start to the new season, FleetFanatic. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted August 28, 2012 Author Share Posted August 28, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... Cheers. Now the midweek BSP fixtures are completed, here's the weekend ratings - the first entirely based on this season. 26 Forest Green Hyde 26 Swansea Sunderland 25 Gillingham Chesterfield 25 Tranmere Colchester 24 Crawley Town Leyton Orient 22 Hereford Grimsby 16 Man City QPR 15 Port Vale Torquay 14 Exeter Burton 14 Yeovil Doncaster 11 Stevenage Shrewsbury 11 Sheffield United Bournemouth 11 Newcastle Aston Villa 10 Cheltenham Accrington 6 Milton Keynes Dons Carlisle 6 West Brom Everton 5 Nott'm Forest Charlton 5 Wigan Stoke 4 Luton Macclesfield 4 Rochdale Barnet 3 Southport AFC Telford Utd 3 AFC Wimbledon Dag and Red 2 Hull Bolton 1 Dartford Alfreton Town 1 Rotherham Bradford 1 Fleetwood Town Aldershot 1 Portsmouth Oldham 1 Hartlepool Scunthorpe 1 Tottenham Norwich -1 Leeds Blackburn -2 Stockport Cambridge -2 Cardiff Wolves -3 Barrow Kidderminster -3 Birmingham Peterboro -3 West Ham Fulham -4 Mansfield Woking -5 Lincoln Ebbsfleet -5 Walsall Brentford -5 Ipswich Huddersfield -6 Wrexham Newport County -7 Braintree Town Tamworth -7 Crewe Coventry -7 Burnley Brighton -7 Liverpool Arsenal -11 York Oxford -14 Nuneaton Gateshead -14 Southend Wycombe -14 Bristol Rvs Morecambe -15 Bury Notts County -16 Preston Swindon -17 Plymouth Northampton -17 Millwall Middlesbrough -17 Leicester Blackpool -17 Barnsley Bristol City -18 Southampton Man United -19 Derby Watford -30 Crystal Palace Sheffield Weds Selections will follow when 365 put up odds for the weekend BSP fixtures, so that'll probably be tomorrow. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banjo Sandwich Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... BD 9.82 BE 20.37 DE 18.22 BDE 72.14 Total returned £120.55, a profit of £102.35. :ok Banks now: Trebles +/-: -£10 Canadians £1017.27 (+/-: +£76.63) :clap Boom! Well done Fleet, great thread as always! Currently sitting £76.87 using your shortlists to cherry pick 3 home trebles! Any chance you would be willing to put the scottish games up like you did last year? Most interesting game this week will be Swansea v Sunderland - Swansea are flying but Sunderland untested and squad looks strong with some new additions... Out of interest Fleet, do you just use statistics in your system or do you put user input in for things like injuries and new siginings, new manager affect, etc... Really want to set up my own system but don't know where to begin... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted August 29, 2012 Author Share Posted August 29, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... It's purely based on number crunching league stats & current form. I'll sort the Scots ratings out for you in a moment... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted August 29, 2012 Author Share Posted August 29, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... Ratings including Scottish: 28 Partick Hamilton 26 Forest Green Hyde 26 Swansea Sunderland 25 Gillingham Chesterfield 25 Tranmere Colchester 24 Crawley Town Leyton Orient 23 East Fife Albion Rvs 22 Hereford Grimsby 20 Hearts Dundee 19 Morton Dumbarton 16 Man City QPR 15 Port Vale Torquay 14 Stenhousemuir Forfar 14 Celtic Hibernian 14 Exeter Burton 14 Yeovil Doncaster 13 Airdrie Utd Cowdenbeath 13 Motherwell Inverness C 11 Queen of Sth Arbroath 11 Stevenage Shrewsbury 11 Sheffield United Bournemouth 11 Newcastle Aston Villa 10 Cheltenham Accrington 9 Ross County Kilmarnock 7 Dunfermline Raith Rvs 6 Milton Keynes Dons Carlisle 6 West Brom Everton 5 Stirling Queens Park 5 Rangers Elgin 5 Peterhead Montrose 5 Clyde Annan Athletic 5 Berwick East Stirling 5 Nott'm Forest Charlton 5 Wigan Stoke 4 Falkirk Livingston 4 Luton Macclesfield 4 Rochdale Barnet 3 Southport AFC Telford Utd 3 AFC Wimbledon Dag and Red 2 Stranraer Ayr 2 Hull Bolton 1 Aberdeen St Mirren 1 Dartford Alfreton Town 1 Rotherham Bradford 1 Fleetwood Town Aldershot 1 Portsmouth Oldham 1 Hartlepool Scunthorpe 1 Tottenham Norwich -1 Brechin Alloa -1 Leeds Blackburn -2 Stockport Cambridge -2 Cardiff Wolves -3 Barrow Kidderminster -3 Birmingham Peterboro -3 West Ham Fulham -4 Mansfield Woking -5 Lincoln Ebbsfleet -5 Walsall Brentford -5 Ipswich Huddersfield -6 Wrexham Newport County -7 Braintree Town Tamworth -7 Crewe Coventry -7 Burnley Brighton -7 Liverpool Arsenal -10 St Johnstone Dundee United -11 York Oxford -14 Nuneaton Gateshead -14 Southend Wycombe -14 Bristol Rvs Morecambe -15 Bury Notts County -16 Preston Swindon -17 Plymouth Northampton -17 Millwall Middlesbrough -17 Leicester Blackpool -17 Barnsley Bristol City -18 Southampton Man United -19 Derby Watford -30 Crystal Palace Sheffield Weds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted August 29, 2012 Author Share Posted August 29, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... Banks now: Trebles +/-: -£10 Canadians £1017.27 (+/-: +£76.63) With odds of 1/2, 6/5, 1/1 & 1/1 for the 4 English teams that rate 25+, that means again no treble. Canadian of Doubles: (1 home / 1 away from each division whenever possible) Each Pair (A/B/C/D/E) permed into 4/6/8/10 folds. A: Gateshead 5/4 Gillingham 21/20 B: Hereford 11/10 Man Utd 11/20 C: Northampton 17/10 Nott'm F 39/40 D: Sheff Wed 31/20 Swansea 6/5 E: Swindon 29/20 Tranmere 1/1 Fast becoming a 'BetVictor' thread... >Betvictor: 26 bets @ 70p = £18.20 staked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawk-Eye Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... Hi, I would love to give this ago but I am really struggling to understand how to place it. Could you do a dumbies guide please? lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... Any questions? Er - yes - could you explain your system a little please? I don't understand it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted August 29, 2012 Author Share Posted August 29, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... I have an excel file that I use to create ratings. The methodology of how that is calculated I only answer very limited questions on, but it is a combination of league positions, home team's home form, away team's away form, last 6 current form (less at the start of the season obviously), as a rough guide. Part 1: For the treble, teams have to be rated 25+ at home to be considered, and be at odds between 1.51 & 1.99 with bet365 (in other words, above 1/2 & below evens). If I don't have 3 teams that meet the criteria, then I don't do a treble. We then shop for the best odds at all main bookmakers. Part 2: For the canadian, we take the strongest home & strongest away in each of the top 5 English divisions. Sometimes when there are not games in every division, I will take additional sides from the divisions that do have matches. The only rule on odds is they have to be higher than 1.50 (bigger than 1/2). We then take these 10 teams, and pair them in alphabetical order. The bookmaker chosen is the one that gives the biggest return on all 10 teams winning. To place online, you have to do each bet individually. So you have the 4folds (2 sets of doubles) AB AC AD AE BC BD BE CD CE DE, 6folds of ABC ABD ABE ACD ACE ADE BCD BCE BDE CDE, 8folds ABCD ABCE ABDE ACDE BCDE & a 10fold ABCDE. So for AB, you would have to place a 4fold bet. Then start again with AC, etc. Think of each pair as an individual selection, so we are basically doing a canadian of doubles, hence it is referred to as a canadian. To place in a betting shop, writing the teams out in pairs with the instruction "Each Pair (A/B/C/D/E) permed into 4/6/8/10 folds." should suffice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banjo Sandwich Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Re: Fleet's Football Ratings - A Long Term Profit Attempt... It's purely based on number crunching league stats & current form. I'll sort the Scots ratings out for you in a moment... Cheers mate! I would like to try and develop my own system, would you be willing to advise me please? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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