Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4

[BillyHills]

3.10 Goodwood: Betfred Mile (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (1m) They don’t come much more competitive than this and plenty will feel they have a chance, the draw could be the deciding factor and it may pay to concentrate on the low numbers. My two against the field are Albaqaa who will be plugging on at the business end of the race and Captain Bertie who has been running consistently well all year and will be up with pace from his good stall position. Selections: 1pt Albaqaa 12/1 Ladbrokes 1pt Captain Bertie 11/1 Stan James Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/goodwood-betting-betfred-mile-can-go-to-albaqaa-from-low-draw-at-goodwood

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4 3.45 Goodwood: Gordon’s King George Stakes (Group 2) (5f) Fascinating renewal of the King George Stakes and they go flat out here with pace all over the place. Tangerine Trees will be one of the pacesetters and will be dangerous if he’s back to form but the price is bit tight for me. I do like Spirit Of Quartz and think he will relish the fast pace to attack and one at a big price is Confessional who likes this track and has been running well all year. Many others are in with a squeak but I don’t think the draw will be a factor here for once. Selections: 1pt Spirit Quartz 12/1 >Betfred 1pt EW Confessional 25/1 >Bet365 Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/goodwood-betting-spirit-quartz-can-finally-deliver-the-goods-in-king-george-sprint-at-goodwood

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4

3.10 Goodwood: Betfred Mile (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (1m) They don’t come much more competitive than this and plenty will feel they have a chance, the draw could be the deciding factor and it may pay to concentrate on the low numbers. My two against the field are Albaqaa who will be plugging on at the business end of the race and Captain Bertie who has been running consistently well all year and will be up with pace from his good stall position. Selections: 1pt Albaqaa 12/1 Ladbrokes 1pt Captain Bertie 11/1 Stan James Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/goodwood-betting-betfred-mile-can-go-to-albaqaa-from-low-draw-at-goodwood

i like these 2 myself and good prices in the low draws but im speed rating later on tonight to make sure i havent missd anything before i go in .......but i think they will run well ..good luck

[beaker1]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4 2.00 Coutts Glorious Stakes (Group 3) The progressive Gatewood steps up into Group company for the first time, following a trio of handicap wins at York, Epsom and Ascot. He started the season off a mark of 86, but after his three wins he is now rated 104 and deservedly merits a step up in class. In all three of his wins he has earned the comment ‘stayed on well at the finish’, so the extra two furlongs he tackles today should reveal some further improvement. He seems most at home on good ground, so conditions should be ideal; however in saying that, he won his most recent start on soft, showcasing his versatility. He hails from a yard that has dominated proceedings so far this year, so should be in the mix. DANDINO may have disappointed last time out, but that run can easily be excused due to the soft ground. He is definitely a top of the ground horse and on the assumption that conditions remain the same, he will be right at home. He hasn’t been at his best so far this term but he did give Sea Moon a fright on that horse’s reappearance at Goodwood, proving his ability on this track. On his only other previous visit to the course he was narrowly denied by a head in the 2010 Gordon Stakes, which for me is a huge positive. Johnny Murtagh takes the ride for the first time which is another plus point for me, especially with just seven runners set to line up; he has proven his tactical nous time and time again. Some of the runners have lots to prove, whereas this horse has already displayed his abilities at this level, making him the one to beat. 2.35 RSA Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3) ALJAMAAHEER is a horse on an upward curve who can continue to improve over a mile. He made his debut over 6f and has since been kept to 7f for his last three starts. He came to the forefront of many people’s attention when beating the well-regarded The Nile before taking his form to a new level when third in the Jersey Stakes. He is by Dubawi, so ought to get a mile standing on his head, which for me makes him the most intriguing runner in the field. Roger Varian is one of the brightest young talents within the training ranks, and has already proven his abilities to get his horses ready for the big occasion; I am expecting a big run from this horse. Stipulate, for Sir Henry Cecil, could provide a solid alternative, having already had several of these rivals behind him earlier this season. He has been a model of consistency over a variety of trips, on differing ground, with his only poor performance coming in the Classic Trial at Sandown on heavy ground, which can easily be excused. He may not have huge improvement in him but the horse has shown to be very genuine and should give his all once more. The least exposed horse in the line-up is Tales Of Grimm, who has had just three starts. He wasn’t seen until August as a 2 year old, but made a winning debut before being put away for the season. He made a respectable reappearance this campaign when third in a Listed contest, in which Stipulate was second, before seemingly failing to stay over 1m2f in the Group 3 Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot. Sir Michael Stoute drops the horse back down to a mile here, which should suit him much better. 3.10 Betred Mile (Handicap) The Totesport Mile is usually quite a rough race, but even so it was one of those where the trends held strong and it was reasonably straightforward to get right. In fact, if my memory serves correctly, in 2008 my shortlist of four provided the first four home. However, it does have to be pointed out that there has been a little wobble over the past couple of seasons – so make sure to tread carefully. The most decisive factor in years gone by was that of the draw. In simple terms, if you weren’t drawn high you couldn’t win, as backed up by the fact that before last year nine of the last 11 winners were drawn in stall 16 or higher. Laa Rayb overturned that damning stat when winning in 2009 but on the whole it has always paid to follow the high numbers. However, with the way that stalls’ numbering changed two years ago, those drawn on the far rail are now the lowest numbers so make sure you are not fooled. This came to fruition last year when the first three home were drawn 1, 6 and 3 respectively. Another pretty reliable trend concerns the winners’ ages; 4yos and 5yos have won nine of the last 12 renewals. There was always the odd 6yo thrown in for good measure but as a whole it always paid to concentrate on the age group mentioned. However, to throw a spanner in the works a 3yo has nowwon 2 of the last 4 renewals so perhaps their age allowance is starting to come into play. So, based on the available evidence we should be able to take on the older horses with a fair degree of confidence. The effect of the draw means the bookies know exactly how to price this race up and so it has generally always paid to follow those at the head of the betting; 10 of the last 12 winners have come from the first five in the betting. At the time of writing the top five in the betting are very closely matched; various bookmakers are pricing each runner differently. There is no clear favourite; however it is Excellent Guest and Fulbright who are marginally ahead in the proceedings. Captain Bertie, Field of Dream and Prince Of Johanne make up the five. But it isn’t just the draw that influences the bookies; they also look to recent form, so it will come as no surprise to learn that 10 of the last 12 winners came into the race on the back of a solid effort last time. So there is little point looking for a horse that has been running below par but dropped to a handy mark as historically this isn’t the race for them. Out of the top five in the betting Fulbright, Field Of Dream and Captain Bertie fit the bill, however I am happy to forgive Excellent Guest’s final outing in which he had no run, as he only just failed to land the Royal Hunt Cup in his previous outing. There are a couple of other things to consider; eight of the last 12 winners were officially rated between 95 and 105, implying that those at the very top and bottom of the weights tend to struggle. This may not be the strongest trend to look at this year as it only eliminates six of today’s line-up. On the trainer front, Mark Johnston leads the way having won the race three times in the last 11 years; he saddles Bannock and Fulbright this time around. Next best is Roger Charlton, who also has a strong record having won this race twice in the last four years, but he doesn’t have a runner this time around. Last year’s winning trainer Marcus Tregoning saddles last year’s victor Boom And Boost once again, but a high draw has made life very tough for a repeat success. Richard Fahey is the only other winning trainer over the last ten years to have a runner and he is represented by the lively outsider Sir Reginald. Applying these recommendations to the field it is the Mark Johnston-trained FULBRIGHT who comes out on top. He has been given a plum draw in eight as well as featuring prominently in the betting. He comes here at the peak of his powers having won back-to-back 6f Newmarket handicaps, the latest off top weight. He represents the masterful Glorious Goodwood trainer who has a superb record at the meeting, as well as in this race. He receives a hefty 3 year olds’ weight allowance to make life a little easier, however the big worry is the trip, as he finished sixth in his only outing over one mile. Captain Bertie comes in as a close second to the main selection, arriving here on the back of a solid effort in a 7f Newmarket handicap last time out, so a reproduction of that performance off the same mark should see him go close. He joins Fulbright at the head of the betting and is also drawn well in stall six – both huge positives. He represents the 4 year old generation, who have a solid record, however there are a couple of slight negatives; he is only rated 93, and seems to prefer more cut in the ground. Although it has historically paid to stick with horses heading the market, two of the last three runners have returned 22/1 and 25/1, which leads us on to Sir Reginald. He was far from disgraced when finishing fourth behind Captain Bertie on heavy ground last time out, and with forecast faster ground in his favour here, he could well make the frame. He is another horse to have fared well with the draw in stall seven, and represents the Richard Fahey team, who won the race in 2003. The final horse to make the shortlist is Excellent Guest, who fits many of the trends. Drawn well in stall three, as well as featuring prominently in the betting, a big run is expected. As previously mentioned earlier in the piece, we can forgive his latest run as he didn’t have much luck in running, but he did prove his well-being the time before. 3.45 Gordon’s King George Stakes (Group 2) AMOUR PROPRE was the runner-up behind Masamah last year but can gain compensation for that defeat with victory this time around. He is a horse that seems to come to his own around this time of year, as shown by his gallant effort here twelve months ago before he went on to beat Sole Power in a Group 3 over in Ireland. His trainer, Henry Candy, has already had a winner at the meeting this week, declaring after the race that the yard was in great form. He will be suited by the conditions and is proven at the track which gives me strong indications he will run a big race. Tangerine Trees will prove to be one of the key dangers, especially if able to repeat the form of his Prix De L’Abbaye success last season. He was far from disgraced at Royal Ascot in the King’s Stand Stakes, finishing eighth, which is better form than most in this field, and should make the frame. Spirit Quartz finished ahead of Tangerine Trees at Ascot in fourth place, and if repeating that form is another horse entitled to be on the premises. He continued to show good form last time out when finishing a close fourth in the Coral Charge at Sandown, which ought to stand him in good stead coming here, so he could prove to be a solid each-way alternative at a forecast double figure price. 4.20 Telegraph Nursery A handicap for 2 year olds is next on the card, and it could present FREEPORT with an opportunity to lose his maiden tag. His best form to date came on his second start when he finished behind the Golophin pair of Tha’ir and Bircham. The former has since gone on to win a Listed race at Royal Ascot, before posting a career best performance here on Wednesday when finishing fourth in a bunched finish behind Olympic Glory. The latter of the pair is today’s rival, Bircham, who went on to win a maiden next time out, franking the form of this particular race even further. The selection’s sire is Bahamian Bounty who is renowned for producing successful 2 year old sprinters and I am willing to keep my faith in Brian Meehan’s runner, who is in receipt of weight from many of his rivals. As previously mentioned, Bircham finished ahead of Freeport earlier in the season, so could prove a big danger, even despite a 10lb pull in the weights in favour of Meehan’s colt. The Godolphin runner was clearly unsuited by the heavy ground in a three-runner event at Newmarket last time out, so could bounce back to form on better ground over 7f. A Certain Romance could prove best of the rest for Peter Chapple-Hyam from a handy draw. He was second on his debut before getting off the mark last time out; there should be more to come from this son of Invincible Spirit. 4.50 Oak Tree Stakes (Group 3) Much will revolve around the fitness of Mahmood Al Zarooni’s GAMILATI, who enjoyed a fruitful campaign this winter in Dubai, winning the UAE 1000 Guineas by an impressive 5½ lengths. The only bad run of her career came in the Lowther Stakes at York, but after a nice break won well first time out in Dubai, so her absence from the racecourse isn’t too much of a concern. She is the best horse in the race on ratings, and for me has the most potential and scope for improvement. She had minor surgery since returning from Dubai but I don’t expect the Godolphin team to be taking any chances with one of their brightest talents; she should be more than capable of doing herself justice, making her the one they all have to beat, despite an unhelpful draw. Another positive is that six of the last ten winners have been 3 year olds, the remaining contests going to the 4 year olds. This doesn’t bode well for the 5, 6 and 7 year olds in the field, of which there are six. Another 3 year olds I have been an avid supporter of is Regal Realm, who despite showing little in the Nell Gwyn, is given another chance to show her true ability here. She showed very smart form at two, beating Gamilati on debut, before really taking my eye when landing the Prestige Stakes at this meeting last year. Hopefully a slight break, along with first-time cheekpieces, can spark this filly back to life; if this is the case she will be right there at the finish. Survey could be the pick of the German pair, representing solid form over in her homeland, winning and placing at Group 3 level and it would be foolish to discount her. 5.25 Betfred Bonus King Handicap The final race of the day could go to the lightly raced and lowly weighted SANDFRANKSKIPSGO. It has paid to side with the lowly weighted horses in this race over the past ten years; only two winners have carried above 8st8lb, which bodes well for the selection. He won his maiden at Windsor over this trip on fast ground, but then his next two runs were below par. One which was over 6f (probably didn’t stay), and the other was at Windsor over 5f where he blew the start before being hampered and consequently was eased before the finish. He bounced back to form last time out when third behind Lady Gibraltar; however the selection gets a 6lb pull in the weights here so he is fully entitled to reverse the form. He has plenty of scope for improvement, so providing he breaks cleanly he should be a dangerous proposition in this field, running off a mere 8st4lb. Tango Sky, for the Ralph Beckett yard, could be the one to chase him home. He won at Haydock over 5f off a mark of 75, then finished a gallant runner-up next time out over 6f. He didn’t quite get home over the extra furlong, so despite another rise in the weights to 82, the return to 5f is a big plus and it is doubtful we have seen the best of him so far. The final horse to make the shortlist is the Irish challenger, Harry Trotter, who successfully won a big race handicap at Royal Ascot with Dandy Boy. This horse has mainly been running over 6 and 7f in Ireland, but has given the impression he is well worth a try over 5f, given he has been tiring close to home over the longer distances. Any Irish challengers should be respected, and it would not surprise me to see this horse run well.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4

with goodwood coming up next week thought it might be helpful to post up some facts /figures on races and maybe identify some good punting prospects ..... betfred mile 10 of the last 12 Betfred Mile winners were drawn in the five stalls nearest the inside rail!!! all last 12 winners were rated between 87 and 106 all recent 12 winners ran in a class 3 race lto or better 11 of 12 winners ran within 34 days all 12 winners had won over 8f or 9f 10 of last 12 winners were horses that raced up with pace ...early speed horses 10 out of 10 were first 5 in betting !! very very strong trends for this particular race and should throw up a strong bet once draw is known feel free to add any posts over 90% of recent winners of this race were first 5 betting and drawn within 1-5 .....so that should help immensely !!!

history suggest that you want to be draw low and be in the first 5 in the betting so i notice the bookies have 3 low low draws in the first 5 to take no chances ......nearly all the previous winners were confirmed front runners and drawn low so in the low draws that leaves captain bertie ......i have a feeling that this race is set up for the front running style of captain bertie who has ideal low draw captain bertie 10pts e.w 10/1 bet365

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4 *Captain Bertie - Goodwood 3:10* The draw can be oh so vital in these big field handicaps, and i think low will be the place to be, and in such case, this horse must have a big place chance. It is proven over this trip of 1m, as it won over it at Newbury earlier in the year. It was a terrific 2nd to Bonnie Brae last time out in the Bunbury Cup on heavy ground, and gets to run off the exact same mark tomorrow, 93. A repeat of that run must see it in the mix. The Charles Hills stable is in ok nick and i will have an e/w bet. *0.5 Points e/w @ 10/1 Bet365 BOG*

[BKI Punter]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4 2:00 Goodwood Dubai Prince 1.5pt win - 5/1 (Bluesq) Dandino 1pt win - 15/2 (WH) Another weakish fav to take on and I think this duo are overpriced. Dubai Prince was once touted a special horse but injury ruled him out of the majority of his three year old season, and was then rushed to the deep end at the end of last year. He's proven his well being with a decisive win over Fury last time out and I think the step-up in trip will suit. Dandino has always been a consistent performer and although his form this year hasn't been great (clearly flattered behind Sea Moon), he likes Goodwood and good ground. He's overpriced when you know he's bound to run a solid race. 2:35 Goodwood Trumpet Major 2pt win - 13/2 (Boyle) Coupe De Ville 1pt win - 14/1 (PP) The Hannon pair look value to take this. I'd backed Trumpet Major for the Guineas and got excited when he went to the front, he couldn't sustain that however and I think a lot of the front runners kicked too soon. He was last in the Irish equivalent when favourite but clearly didn't show his form so it's fine to put a line through that, adding in the fact that he's had a nice break which is a plus for the horse. Coupe De Ville wasn't far behind Gregorian in the French 2000 Guineas and was an unlucky loser to a subsequent winner last time out, along with the third going in too. He was also very close to Trumpet Major at Newmarket and is definitely no back number here. He looks far too big. 3:45 Goodwood Ortensia 1.5pt win - 7/1 (Bet365) Ortensia is a high-class horse not seen to best effect in the UK as yet, but gets nice conditions to do herself justice tomorrow and 7/1 looks big. Buick gets back on board after giving her a good ride in awful conditions in the July Cup, and she ran creditably given it wasn't over her trip. She has strong opposition in the form of Tangerine Trees and Hamish Mcgonagall but all at similar prices, I think she's the value choice.

[egg]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4 Hi all, It's my first post on the forum so lets hope I can get off to a good start. I've chose three selections mainly down to the draw, history of the races in question and also three handy types who'll hopefully avoid any hard luck stories. 2.35 Goodwood~ Trumpet Major 1 point win. 6/1 3.10 Goodwood~ Captain Bertie 1 point win. 10/1 3.45 Goodwood~ Tangerine Trees 1 point win. 7/1 I've covered the 3 with 3x 0.5 point doubles and 1x 0.5 each way treble.

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4 Goodwood 2.35pm Gregorian has top class form in Group 1 races and should be going close today at this level. I expect Stipulate to improve today and it has run on well previously and a fast run race could play into its hands here with Queally sitting off the pace and pouncing late. Selections: 2pts EW – Stipulate 8-1 William Hill (BOG) Full race preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/goodwood-betting-stipulate-can-continue-fine-form-for-queally-and-cecil

[bowles10]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4 3,45 Goodwood HUMIDOR represents a massive price on a course where it boasts a record of 1-1-5 from 3 runs here. HAs won on its 2nd turf win for last 2 seasons and trainer has managed to book Richard Hughes also. Finished off last season winning a listed race at Doncaster also. 33/1 Bet365

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4 Goodwood 2.00pm Great opening race with Dandino, Gatewood and the 2 Godolphin horses all looking like they will go well. I favour the Godolphin runners here although Gatewood is a huge danger. Dandino ran well behind Sea Moon but then ran 2nd to a rival rated 15lb inferior (Polygon), its poor effort last time out was due to the ground. I can see Godolphin getting the 1-2 here and might cover the forecast. Selections: 3pts WIN – Songcraft 7-2 Bluesquare 1pt WIN – Dubai Prince 5-1 Bluesquare Full race preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/goodwood-betting-godolphin-can-deny-gatewood-in-friday-s-opening-race

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4 4.50 Goodwood: Oak Tree Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) (7f) Intriguing race with Gamalati a mile clear on the book but just that niggling doubt about whether she will be 100% after her problems and at 6/4 she looks plenty short enough. The owners second string Dysphonia could be better value although both have high draws as do many of the fancied runners in this line up. The German pair have to be respected and Survey looks the best of those and maybe worth a small bet against the favourite who should win this if anywhere near her Guineas form frim Meydan. Selections: 1pt EW Dysphonia 12/1 >Bet365 1pt Survey 7/1 Ladbrokes Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/goodwood-betting-godolphin-s-second-string-dysphonia-looks-the-value-in-oak-tree-stakes-at-goodwood

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4 2.35 Goodwood - 2pts win Stipulate @ 8/1 (Hills) Quite an open race for a Group 3 but I think Henry Cecil can continue his good week with his colt in here who has a progressive profile when getting his conditions and a decent chance on the figures. I don't think his ascent up the ratings has stopped, however, and conditions here look up his street. He clearly wants a sound surface having bombed out in the Sandown Classic Trial earlier this year, but his three other efforts as a 3yo have been very encouraging. He smashed the decent Mister Music by 4 1/2l on his first run of the season and horses in behind that day have also come out and franked the form. He was only headed late on back at Sandown two starts ago on better ground by the smart Cogito - who since ran well in the St James' Palace stakes at Royal Ascot despite never having much of a chance (held-up last and those up front dominated after a stricken horse hampered much of the field). Stayed on really well without the jockey getting serious though so it looks a good formline. Last time out Stipulate ran a cracker upped to 1m2f at Ascot on good to soft. Bumped into a nice horse but the way he travelled was encouraging. Definitely stays a bit further than the mile he steps back to today but he's a keen going type who travels well and that's a help here. Definitely will get home, the ground suits and has the speed to get him involved as well. Think he's going to go close. 3.45 Goodwood - 4pts win Ortensia @ 7/1 (VC) Posted this before her Royal Ascot run:

3.05 Ascot - 3pts win Ortensia @ 5/1 (Bet365) The Australian challengers have a fine record in this and I think they can increase their winning tally by 1 today with this mare who has thrived for her new yard. She had been campaigned over further for much of her career for previous connections but clearly doesn't lack speed as seen when an impressive winner over in Meydan back in March. That looks a key race to look at with regards to this given she got the better of Sole Power in 2nd, Joy And Fun 3rd, Monsieur Joe 4th, Secret Asset 8th, Margot Did 10th and Prohibit 13th. The blinkers were on that day for the first time since she joined her current yard and they possibly just helped a little bit as she was brought wide to deliver a devastating challenge late on. She showed a good turn of pace there and with her stamina proven over further, that's a nice little combination for a sprint at Ascot. Soft ground would be a slight concern but she hasn't faced anything too testing for Paul Messara and he seems to have worked wonders with the mare. She will relish the fast pace of a race such as this and if getting the splits it seems reasonable to believe she will be finishing to good effect. The Meydan victory looks solid as a rock and proves that she can win after travelling abroad and after a break so they are two issues that can be put to one side and she had 1 1/4l to spare that day having arrived late on the scene. Two starts back she beat a horse who was beaten less than 2l by Black Caviar back in the wondermare's early days so she looks to have some high-class form in Australia and will be seen to good effect in a race such as this I feel. Wizz Kid looks the obvious danger to me with concerns over the ground about Bated Breath. Sole Power isn't as good here as elsewhere and I think one of the foreign raiders will take this and I don't see why it won't be Craig Williams' mount.

She hasn't had her conditions since coming over here - both on this occasion and in the July Cup but finally gets things her way today with the weather set fair and the drop to 5f. She drops to a Group 2 now having been bogged down in the mud and ran as well as could be expected at Newmarket last time. She finished 4th in the end with plenty of good horses behind her but this test will suit her best comfortably now. She has the pace for 5f and a great turn of foot which is necessary here. I wouldn't want her to get too far back given this is a very speedy course over sprint trips but they look like they'll be plenty going off quickly and that could set it up for her. A high draw seems to be an advantage and there are 3 or 4 who like to make the running in the field. Two of those are drawn around her so she should be able to get a nice toe into the race so long as she doesn't fall out of the gates and I anticipate a very big run. She's a Group 1 sprinter when she has conditions in her favour and she's in a Group 2 here. Should be tough to beat and not a bad price. 4.50 Goodwood - 2pts win Sunday Nectar @ 16/1 (Bet365) Tricky race to call with Gamilati holding every chance if at her best but she's too short and isn't infallible in my opinion and there are a few foreign raiders in here. That is always difficult to analyse but having dug a bit deeper I think this French filly is overpriced at 16/1 and I get the impression that she's going to relish the test on offer here. She showed decent form last year (including 3 3/4l defeat to Immortal Verse) but has improved a fair bit at 4 and has gone very well the last thrice with the hood applied. It is a natural concern that the headgear isn't on today but I'm hoping they haven't sparked all of the improvement and she's still capable of a big run. She ran well for a long way on her first run of the season at Chantilly on the all-weather before fading late on - she just shaped as if needing the run and has built on that from then on. She was held-up keenly at the back next time out and probably further back than ideal when she finished nicely over 7f at Toulouse. The race proved to be a strong one as the 2 1/2l winner has since chased Moonlight Cloud home (2l behind). That's clearly very solid form and my selection was only 4l behind that one in the race at Toulouse. The 3rd there also beat Meandre last year. Next time out Sunday Nectar was nailed late on having set sail for home. That was over a mile on soft ground at Longchamp where she showed a decent turn of foot off a slow pace to draw clear 2f out. She only just failed to last out and it seems like 7f might be ideal for her, or at least a mile on decent ground. She won a listed event in Italy last time out over 1m on good ground and I just feel this course and distance will bring out the best in her if she's capable without the hood applied. She's got plenty of pace which is important around here and can often race freely. She'll definitely get home and I think she can go well so long as she isn't restrained too much. Hopefully she can quicken from near the front and make the others chase her late on...and to no avail in an ideal world!

[smith17]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4 14.00 Goodwood: Dubai Prince, 6/1 Bet365, win Dubai Prince won well lto finishing 4½L ahead of Fury. He was a further 2½L ahead of Invisible Man and New Hampshire, who has run twice since, winning once and been beaten by a short head, in what was a decent class three conditions race. That was over a mile and he steps up in trip to a mile and a half. He finished well lto and has won over 9f before so it should suit. He has run over this distance before but that was a group one and he was simply outclassed and virtually pulled up. He is clear on official ratings and his run lto should put him in the perfect condition for this. He should go close. Ahmed Ajtebi is in the saddle and he was on board lto as well. 14.35 Goodwood: Coupe de Ville, 14/1 Paddy Power, e/w Coupe de Ville ran well lto until he hung left in the final half furlong. He finished ½L behind Thistle Bird who won impressively nto at Ascot. He finished 4½ ahead of Highland Knight who won a listed race nto. He ran well in the 2000 Guineas, finishing just 4L behind Camelot. He was just a nose behind Trumpet Major that day and receives four pounds from him today. Coupe de Ville finished ahead of current favourite Gregorian in September last year when Gregorian was conceding eight pounds to CdV, today they race off level weights. At 14/1 Coupe de Ville looks to overpriced and will hopefully run a big race. 15.10 Goodwood: Johnny Castle, 20/1 Boylesports, e/w Four year olds have a decent record in this race winning five of the last ten runnings. The booking of Ryan Moore to ride Johnny Castle is eye catching. He has a 21% strike rate when riding for Amanda Perrett, who has a good level stakes profit at Goodwood over the last five seasons, and he has a good record at Goodwood, especially on 4yo+ horses. JC was a progressive 3yo who is having his first run for Perrett today and first run of the season. He started last season with a close second before winning his next two races. He disappointed nto but he finished last season with a fine run to finish a length behind Lightning Cloud. This is just his second run over a mile and, while the draw isn't ideal, he could go close at a big price. 15.45 Goodwood: Humidor, 33/1 Bet365, e/w Humidor has a good record at Goodwood with two wins from three runs. He has only run once this season in the Coral Charge at Sandown. He finished last of 13 but he was crowded as the stalls opened and was never in the race as he was hampered for the first furlong. That should put him in good condition for this however. Richard Hughes takes the ride and he has a very good record at Goodwood and he has a great partnership with trainer George Baker winning four times from just six rides over the past five years. 16.20 Goodwood: Carlton Blue, 8/1 Betfred, win Carlton Blue won well lto. He finished well so today's step up in trip by 1f should suit. The Paul Cole stable is in good form, with a number of winners over the last few weeks. Jockey Ashley Morgan, who takes off a valuable five pounds, has a very good record when riding for Cole, with 4 winners from just 7 rides. 16.50 Goodwood: Sioux Rising, 14/1 Bet365, e/w Gamilati will be hard to beat but she hasn't run since February so there is a question mark over her fitness. Sioux Rising could be the one to take advantage of any rustiness in the favourite. She finished second in her last two races. She was beaten by ½L by the re-opposing Gracia Directa in a group 3 lto. She receives three pounds today so should be able to reverse that form. She will need to improve but she ran very well lto and a chance is taken. 17.25 Goodwood: Powerful Wind, 20/1 Betfred, e/w Powerful Wind didn't beat a horse home in his last two starts but both were run on soft ground which doesn't suit. He showed a great attitude to win at York on his third last run in May. He shot out of the stalls and just didn't stop. He tired a bit in the last ½f but held on well. The form of that race hasn't worked out too well but it was an impressive victory and he looks to be a good price. Talented young claimer Darren Egan, who takes off five pounds, is in the saddle as he was for the last win.

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4 3.45 Goodwood ORTENSIA 5pts win @ 7/1 bog (Victor Chandler) I had her to win the King's Stand at Royal Ascot but the soft ground and a very nervous parade shown she wasn't at her best. Way better next time out over 6f at Newmarket in the July Cup on heavy ground when the ground was surely totally against this quality mare but she still ran a blinder imho to finish 4th of 12, 2L behind the favourite and third of that race, Society Rock and she finished best of those who ran towards the stands' side that day. Back on sounder surface this top class sprinter (twice Group 1 winner in the last 9 months) should take all the beating where she has to carry 4lb more than most of her rivals but will find a perfect race for her taste since there will be a lot of pace with the likes of the 2011 Abbaye-winner Tangerine Trees, last year's winner of this race Masamah and a few more front-runners that should ensure a fast pace since the start (perfect for a strong finisher like Ortensia).

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4 5.25 Goodwood LARWOOD 4pts win @ 13/2 bog (Victor Chandler) Progressive 3yo grey gelding trained by Henry Candy who made a giant step forward from his 2yo form (had won a maiden at Bath over 6f on good ground and was twice 7th and very disappointing in his two starts in nurseries over 6f off 69 and 68) winning in impressive style at Kempton (heavily backed beforehand and 4.5L ahead of the second even if eased in the finish) on his 3yo/seasonal debut in April over 6f. He had been gelded and the breathing problems he had shown on his last start in November had been solved so after some very good home work connections were very confident he was way better than that mark of 67. Next time out back over the same C&D (Kempton, 6f) he was more than disappointing and for no reason even if the 12lb hike after his previous was surely not a gift but he put that bad perfomance behind him next/last time out at Ascot dropped back in trip over 5f on firm ground when he finished 2nd, beaten just a neck in a class 4 handicap for 3yo+ where he still ran off his new mark of 79. He still took a keen hold in the fist part of the race but finished very strong and was just held by the winner with the first two clear of the remainder. The handicapper reacted with another 4lb rise (83) but he still races off his mark of 79 here so he's 4lb ahead of the handicapper in this race. Good draw in stall nr. 3, if able to repeat the performance seen 7 days ago at Ascot he has to have a very big chance here.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4

history suggest that you want to be draw low and be in the first 5 in the betting so i notice the bookies have 3 low low draws in the first 5 to take no chances ......nearly all the previous winners were confirmed front runners and drawn low so in the low draws that leaves captain bertie ......i have a feeling that this race is set up for the front running style of captain bertie who has ideal low draw captain bertie 10pts e.w 10/1 bet365

no luck at goodwood this week ........so down to my last 40pts allocated for this meeting .......think im flogging a dead horse personally but have had some good close calls so i think its just been a case of bad luck as ive had near 100pt wins twice go down by short margins and only need 1 to get their head in front .......... have passed this through the computer and it has put FULBRIGHT top strangely ......i knew the horse was running well but dont like backing multiple winners in hcaps as they are generally poor bets ....his speed rating is 102 which is very good in context of this race as average winner rates 99 so looks very capable even with penalty .....has low draw in 8 so only just outside sweet zone so easily overcome .......natural front runner as mentioned in my write up bodes well so good saver bet in this open race fulbright 6pts saver 9/1 blsq/boyle

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4 3.45 good very competitive sprint again ......i do love these races though so got to have a go ......really i want to be on a low draw horse here that is currently showing or possesses plenty of speed .....so i was very tempted to back tangerine trees but recent speedratings of 93 and 94 seem to suggest he running just below best ......hamish mcgonagal and pubasar will be very hard to beat as both have been showing good speed lately recording 106 and 108 but they are drawn further out so the fastest horses with decent draws seem to be spirit quartz(104) and confessional (106) ,spirit quartz is certainly a capable sprinter on a good day and combination of speed and good draw looks good with his 12/1 pricetag and looks value at that ,confessional is difficult to weigh up as at best should be around a 8/1 shot ,ran a bit flat lto but had 2 races within 2 weeks and maybe just needed a break .....has been given one to freshen up so if bouncing back to form then the 28/1 quote with sporting bet from stall 6 would be very silly and looks a decent bet to hopefully bounce back today spirit quartz 5pts win 12/1 betvic confessional 5pts win 28/1 sporting bet

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4 good 2.35 this race hinges on GREGORIAN for me ......he has a class rating of 140 and a speed rating of 109 so all together looks primed to destroy this field ......you can never be certain but recent form suggests big run is possible and 7/2 quote looks very generous indeed so must bet gregorian 10pts win 7/2 betvic

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4 5.25 good my last but one race as ill probably have a go in the big one tomorrow so just got to hope my luck changes ..........very strange race this one ............rated all runners and computer has spat out the following signifer 97 sandsfrankskipandgo 97 kyleakin lass 97 jwala 94 jwala is priced up at around 15/2 3 horses rated joint exactly the same which is unusual for such a big hcap and just looked on betfair and prices are 14.5 ,19.0 and 38.0 !! ....not even going to bother trying to separate as may as well have tag team and hope for the best (i mean signifer ...at 38.0 ) sandsfrankskipandgo 5pts win 14.5 betfair kyleakin lass 5pts win 19.0 betfair signifer 5pts win 38.0 betfair

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4

3.45 Goodwood: Gordon’s King George Stakes (Group 2) (5f) Fascinating renewal of the King George Stakes and they go flat out here with pace all over the place. Tangerine Trees will be one of the pacesetters and will be dangerous if he’s back to form but the price is bit tight for me. I do like Spirit Of Quartz and think he will relish the fast pace to attack and one at a big price is Confessional who likes this track and has been running well all year. Many others are in with a squeak but I don’t think the draw will be a factor here for once. Selections: 1pt Spirit Quartz 12/1 >Betfred 1pt EW Confessional 25/1 >Bet365 Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/goodwood-betting-spirit-quartz-can-finally-deliver-the-goods-in-king-george-sprint-at-goodwood

just realised ive got same bets as you today .....these two here same reasons and captain bertie ......lets hope for a good run !!!

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4 ALBAQAA (15:10) looked to have paid the price regarding his handicap mark after a very good run in a Group 3 on his last start in 2011 but has returned to form on his past two starts and is still attractively handicapped if back to his best, even though he’s 6lbs higher than when winning here last season. The race will almost certainly be run to suit and he’s still capable of progressing to a mark towards 100 when encountering this sort of race. Formerly trained by Richard Fahey, his new handler really got a tune out of him last summer, improving him from a mark of 82 at one point to a new rating of 100. Within that time came a handicap win off a mark of 82 and the aforementioned success at Goodwood over 9f, coming off a 6lb lower rating than he lines up. They went a good pace that day, which suits his hold-up style and he won with a fair bit in hand, looking likely to continue to be competitive off his revised mark. He did not do so in handicap company but seemingly blew his handicap mark by outrunning (quite significantly) the official figures with a blinding effort in a Group race, which just shows that on his day, he’s easily capable of running well beyond today’s handicap rating of 93. After two quiet outings on seasonal reappearance, he met traffic problems at Royal Ascot before an eyecatching effort last time out at Sandown. That was a competitive enough handicap but Albaqaa was given plenty to do, not given a hard time when the race was obviously gone but he still stayed on really nicely, finishing 5^th but not being far off grabbing a place and almost certainly would have done so had he been given more forceful handling. Today he lines up in this very competitive handicap which is sure to be run at a furious gallop, which for a keen type like Albaqaa, it’s essential that he gets a good pace to chase. He obviously acts at Goodwood, having won on his only try here and is coming from the right end of the handicap here, still looking like he’s capable of much better in handicaps. Some may say that he needs firm ground to be seen at his best, but he acted perfectly well last time on a softer surface and going back into his past form with Richard Fahey, he ran some nice races on genuine soft turf, so I don’t think ground riding on the easy side of good will be too much of an issue. Minimum stakes only advisable in a race of this nature but I just feel Albaqaa should be priced around the 15/2 mark, so is worthy of a bet at his current double figure odds. Swiftly Done is the big danger I feel but connections have previously stated that the Cambridgeshire is the long term aim and a win here would hamper their chances in that race somewhat, but he’s feared nonetheless. SUNDAY NECTAR (16:50) comes into this race off a listed success in Italy over a mile, form that might not look the strongest but the way in which she won suggests that 7f is a trip she’ll cope with easily and could well be her optimum at his level and I think she’s hilariously overpriced given if she was trained in this country, with the same level of form, she’d be no bigger than 8/1 or so. She didn’t race as a juvenile but quickly proved herself useful by winning her first two starts. She was then pitched against Immortal Verse in a Group 2 affair and was only beaten 4.5L, which is obviously one of the strongest pieces of form in the race if taken literally. She probably got the run of the race that day but it was still a very useful effort nonetheless. Unfortunately she never built upon it but has returned to form on her past two starts, going very close over a mile when just run down late (form hasn’t worked out). On the evidence of that start, 7f will not be a problem as she is not short of speed by any stretch of the imagination. This is corroborated by her last outing to a racecourse when picking up an Italian listed race (link provided

). She travels into the race so well and I think looking at that run, she’ll be even better at 7f given she was hardly getting away from her rivals at the finish. A mile stretches her so this easy 7f won’t be of any problem. The horses in behind were hardly Group level animals but the 6^th home went on to be narrowly beaten in a German listed contest last weekend and it might not have been a bad race for the grade. Her last start came in June so it’s fairly obvious that connections have been waiting for this race. Her trainer had a runner in this contest back in 2009, who wasn’t beaten far and was pretty unlucky in-running, which doesn’t bode badly for this one’s chances as they’ll probably have a pretty good idea of what to expect. As you’d expect, the track is an unknown but Sunday Nectar’s sire has a very promising 4/19 record at Goodwood and that’s enough for me to suggest she should handle this course. Whether she’s good enough to beat the likes of Gamilati, I’m not exactly sure but that one has a poor draw and an absence to contend with and is absolutely no value at her current price. This is actually quite a poor Group 3 race as many of these are only rated 85 mark and of the market principles rated in three figures, they mostly have big question marks hanging over them. The German filly in Survey is interesting but is priced on the good record that they’ve had over in contests within the UK this season and I believe that Sunday Nectar should be around a similar price than that rival. She looks bound to relish this 7f test, seemingly goes on most ground, has positive sire stats to suggest Goodwood will hold no fears and most importantly, a kind draw. Medium stakes at this price is no bad thing, although I wouldn’t be surprised if she was to drift further before the off given her unknown quantity. Bets 15:10 Goodwood – Albaqaa; 1pt @ 10/1 BetVictor, William Hill (bog) 16:50 Goodwood – Sunday Nectar; 2pts @ 18/1 BetVictor, Bet365 (bog)

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4 2.00 good gatewood was too short this morning so the 9/4 looks good now so 4pts win before they go off

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4 Do think Albaqaa will go well in the Mile but not going to get involved too much in the race. Not on a single-figure priced horse. Didn't think I was going to have anything but I'll kick myself if this one goes in. Would be a surprise but if on a going day, plausibly could outrun his price. 3.10 Goodwood - 0.5pt win Mabait @ 33/1 (Bet365) Absolute monkey of a horse but has plenty of ability and is well-handicapped so I'm sure he'll pop up somewhere along the line. Was hoping for some 50s becoming available but would be suicidal if he managed to win today and I didn't have something on him. Tentative bet of course, but he wants a good pace over a mile on a sound surface which he gets today for all he needs everything to drop right. He ran okay in the Hunt Cup off 96 but prior to that he finished very nicely over 7f at Chester under today's rider, Alice Haynes. She takes 7lbs off so he can definitely be competitive off this mark of 95 with the claim. Soft ground and a slow pace was against him last time as he raced keenly but actually came through fairly nicely to challenge before weakening fairly quickly. That wasn't ideal, this should be better and he's not terribly drawn in 10 for a hold-up horse. Yard are in form and there are a handful of front-runners to hopefully set this up nicely.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4 What a little teaser!

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4

no luck at goodwood this week ........so down to my last 40pts allocated for this meeting .......think im flogging a dead horse personally but have had some good close calls so i think its just been a case of bad luck as ive had near 100pt wins twice go down by short margins and only need 1 to get their head in front .......... have passed this through the computer and it has put FULBRIGHT top strangely ......i knew the horse was running well but dont like backing multiple winners in hcaps as they are generally poor bets ....his speed rating is 102 which is very good in context of this race as average winner rates 99 so looks very capable even with penalty .....has low draw in 8 so only just outside sweet zone so easily overcome .......natural front runner as mentioned in my write up bodes well so good saver bet in this open race fulbright 6pts saver 9/1 blsq/boyle

well the nightmare meeting finally pays a dividend ........computer nailed it at last and nice price as well ..........clawed back 60pts .........2 races today and 1 tomorrow ......could do with another winner .....come on the lads !!!

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4 Event: Goodwood Match Goodwood 4.20 Selection Bircham (Each-way) Strength 2/10 Date 03/08/2012 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 0.00 Reasoning 120,000 GNS colt by Dubawi out of a Danehill mare. Trainer Mahmood Al Zarooni have done well with him after three runs of 2nd, 1st, 2nd. Has the speed early needed to go well at this course. Beaten 7 lengths at Newmarket last time out against two rivals but that was on Heavy going. He set a steady pace until headed over 1f out and weakened inside the final furlong. Better ground today, we should see a better result.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4 6.50 Galway - 3pts win Authorization @ 13/2 (VC) The head two in the market have to give plenty of weight away on this ground and I'm very interested in one of the more unexposed runners who should relish these conditions. This colt did well on debut to finish 3rd - and was coming home to really nice effect at the death to finish just over 3l behind Alla Speranza (gone on to be rated 100). Considering he has a real middle-distance pedigree it was a great attempt on debut and the penny seemed to be dropping at the end having raced a little bit green earlier on. He's a big, galloping sort who won after 9 months off the track on his seasonal debut upped to 1m2f on heavy ground at the Curragh. That was impressive as he looks like the type to improve for a run and he drifted markedly left late on. Won by only a neck or so in the end but it was the win that was important and I don't think he's handicapped out of this off 86 especially as there's more to come for sure. Should strip fitter for this and the extra 2f is also in her favour. Clearly relishes testing conditions and he has a huge chance.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4 7.10 Bath - 3pts win Dreams of Fire @ 11/2 (Bet365) I'll take on the favourite after a break and if you put Sir Michael Stoute's filly's effort at Chester behind her then she has a storming chance here off a mark of 78. She seemed to get bogged down in the deep ground there in the listed event in May after a break. She raced freely as well and I think it will pay to forget about that. She returns to a better surface today which is sure to suit and has a big chance on what she showed in two maidens last year. Was unfortunate not to go closer when suffering from bad luck in running on debut over 7f at Salisbury but made no mistake over a mile at Kempton next time out. Proved stamina was a strong point when getting up late on on that occasion having initially looked beaten. Her pedigree suggests that wasn't a big surprise as this 1m2f trip should suit better and the form of that effort on the polytrack has worked out well. The next four horses to finish that day are now rated at least as highly as my selection here so her mark doesn't look restrictive with progress to come and George Baker takes the ride. He is 1-1 for the yard and hopefully he can continue his 100% record here.

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4 Unlucky with Mabait Ben. Definately one for the notebook! Well done with Ortensia.