So what's with the Spain v Croatia game then?

[aderuk]

Obvious reasoning behind the game ending 2-2, but can it really happen and would'nt it look to dodgy ? most of the bookies seem to range from 7/2-5/1 for a 2-2 draw which is remarkably low for a 2-2 draw, most bookies also have very low odds on over 3.5 goals. I guess it would be ironic if it does end 2-2 what with all the Italian match fixing that has been in the press of late.

[nad33m]

Re: So what's with the Spain v Croatia game then? Croatia need to score against Spain to stand a chance to qualify. A 0-0 draw would mean they go out if Italy beat Ireland (correct me if I am wrong). 1-1 Spaind vs Croatia and Italy need to score 3 or more against Ireland. (again correct me if im wrong here) 2-2 and Italy cannot qualify. I do not see Spain conceding twice vs Croatia. Croatia best hope is staying tight and getting a 1-1, then hoping Italy do not score 4 vs Ireland. But then again if Croatia go out to score 2 and draw it would mean auto qualification no matter what italy do against Ireland. But cant see it happening.

[sfxup]

Re: So what's with the Spain v Croatia game then? If Italy wins and.. if Croatia wins -> 1° Croatia, 2° Italy if Spain wins -> 1° Spain, 2° Italy if Croatia-Spain 0-0 -> 1° Italy, 2° Spain if Croatia-Spain 1-1 and Italy wins by at least four goals starting from 5-1 (6-2, 7-3 etc.) -> 1° Italy, 2° Spain if Croatia-Spain 1-1 and Italy wins by at least two goals starting from 3-1 (4-2, 5-3 etc.) -> 1° Spain, 2° Italy if Croatia-Spain 1-1 and Italy wins 2-0 or by less than two goals (1-0, 2-1, 3-2 etc.) -> 1° Spain, 2° Croatia if Croatia-Spain 2-2, 3-3, 4-4 etc. -> 1° Spain, 2° Croatia If Italy doesn't win and... if Croatia wins -> 1° Croatia, 2° Spain if Spain wins -> 1° Spain, 2° Croatia if Croatia-Spain draw -> 1° Spain, 2° Croatia

[pg_yid]

Re: So what's with the Spain v Croatia game then? I don't for a second think that they will play out a 2-2 draw. It would obviously look incredibly dodgy, and I think Spain have too much class as a team to do that. However, if the score is 2-2, 3-3, 4-4 etc with twenty minutes to go, I can't see either team attacking or pressing the other team for the ball with any serious intent. I can see it being a tight game to begin with. A 0-0 draw would see Spain qualify whatever happens, so they won't be in too much of a hurry to commit men forward, although they will want to win the group which would only be certain if they win this game. Meanwhile, Croatia will realise they are playing the best team in the world so will look to keep things tight to begin with, even though they need to score. I think Croatia's best chance of qualifying is probably to keep it tight til late on then try and nick a winner. The outstanding bets to me are Spain @ 1.87 with Boylesports and also Spain DNB @ 1.2 with Bet365. The draw no bet is obviously a lot more cautious but I also think it is probably better value. Just can't see Croatia winning the game at all. I think it should be 1.1 or maybe even lower. Of course this bet means if the 2-2 draw is played out or settled for, no money is lost. It's funny in a way to think of all the permutations when the most likely thing is that Spain will take it as they would any other game, keep the ball as they usually do and win with relative ease.

[Alexc]

Re: So what's with the Spain v Croatia game then? I remember in the last World Cup, against Chile, and both going through. Unashamedly knocked the ball around in their own half for a good fifteen minutes. My jaw was on the floor. In no way are Spain too classy to play for a 2-2 :lol

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: So what's with the Spain v Croatia game then? It's basically this that has been mentioned above. Both teams will try and win, but if the match is 2-2 after 60-70 mins, then you can be sure it's probably going to stay that way.

[MPLouis]

Re: So what's with the Spain v Croatia game then? I don't think Spain or Spanish teams are any different to anyone else when it comes down to it. A recent Spanish Segunda game between Celta Vigo and Cordoba where a draw would suit both teams finished 0-0. There were no corners and no bookings in the whole game. I don't think there was a shot on target either - http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2012/06/03/spain/segunda-division/real-club-celta-de-vigo/cordoba-cf/1141930/ But I agree with Paul Ross above. If this match is 2-2 it's hard to imagine more goals being scored.

[Mustafa]

Re: So what's with the Spain v Croatia game then? The best price for Over 2.5 @ 1.70 and for Over 3.5 @ 2.62, while both to score is only @ 1.50-1.60. Really it's difficult to find any decent bets on this one

[aderuk]

Re: So what's with the Spain v Croatia game then? I suppose if this was a one off game ie a qualifier or something similar then the Croatian odds are correct at 8.50 but the draw odds are to low(should be around 4.00) and the Spain odds of 1.80(should be around 1.30) are to high. So there is massive value on Spain 1.80 @ bet365. So are the bookies just covering their arses with some only going 4.50 for 2-2 draw when in reality the odds should be a lot lot higher(i would guess 14.00)? Or do the bookies believe there are some underhand things that will go on? Also if the game was 2-2 with 25 mins to play and both teams started playing keep ball and creating nothing would this not harm footballs integrity and raise questions?

[pg_yid]

Re: So what's with the Spain v Croatia game then? What I meant by saying Spain have too much class to play for a 2-2 is that Spain are a much better side than Croatia and will be confident simply of winning the game without having to do something like that. Also, a 2-2 draw is hard to orchestrate and would look really dodgy. It would be different if it was a 0-0 draw as this is easy to do. Similarly if it was 2-2, it would be easy to keep it that way. It does not look too dodgy to simply keep the ball and not make any attacks or tackles, but you can't start letting goals in if you want to stay in the competition and not face lengthy sanctions from UEFA.

[Alexc]

Re: So what's with the Spain v Croatia game then?

What I meant by saying Spain have too much class to play for a 2-2 is that Spain are a much better side than Croatia and will be confident simply of winning the game without having to do something like that. Also' date= a 2-2 draw is hard to orchestrate and would look really dodgy. It would be different if it was a 0-0 draw as this is easy to do. Similarly if it was 2-2, it would be easy to keep it that way. It does not look too dodgy to simply keep the ball and not make any attacks or tackles, but you can't start letting goals in if you want to stay in the competition and not face lengthy sanctions from UEFA.

Euro 2004, Denmark 2-2 Sweden? :) Personally I never bother with these kind of potentially suspect situations. I think playing it safe as you suggest is a no-lose situation really; on a normal day Spain will very likely avoid defeat, but as has been said, if it's level with fifteen to play, it's like betting on Spain to avoid defeat in 75 minutes really.

[Mustafa]

Re: So what's with the Spain v Croatia game then?

Euro 2004, Denmark 2-2 Sweden? :) Personally I never bother with these kind of potentially suspect situations. I think playing it safe as you suggest is a no-lose situation really; on a normal day Spain will very likely avoid defeat, but as has been said, if it's level with fifteen to play, it's like betting on Spain to avoid defeat in 75 minutes really.

Denmark and Sweden were equal back then, but Spain and Croatia are not.

[pg_yid]

Re: So what's with the Spain v Croatia game then?

Euro 2004, Denmark 2-2 Sweden? :) Personally I never bother with these kind of potentially suspect situations. I think playing it safe as you suggest is a no-lose situation really; on a normal day Spain will very likely avoid defeat, but as has been said, if it's level with fifteen to play, it's like betting on Spain to avoid defeat in 75 minutes really.

I can't remember that game well, but was it really fixed? As I recall it just happened to end that way. Have done a big bet on Spain DNB and a smaller one on the straight Spain win.

[soundingstylish]

Re: So what's with the Spain v Croatia game then? It won't be fixed. Take advantage of that massive Spain price. Gift!!

[aderuk]

Re: So what's with the Spain v Croatia game then? How strange all prices are returning to where they should be, glad I got Spain at 1.80 the other day:hope

[cpo]

Re: So what's with the Spain v Croatia game then?

It won't be fixed. Take advantage of that massive Spain price. Gift!!

Agreed!

[pg_yid]

Re: So what's with the Spain v Croatia game then?

I don't for a second think that they will play out a 2-2 draw. It would obviously look incredibly dodgy, and I think Spain have too much class as a team to do that. However, if the score is 2-2, 3-3, 4-4 etc with twenty minutes to go, I can't see either team attacking or pressing the other team for the ball with any serious intent. I can see it being a tight game to begin with. A 0-0 draw would see Spain qualify whatever happens, so they won't be in too much of a hurry to commit men forward, although they will want to win the group which would only be certain if they win this game. Meanwhile, Croatia will realise they are playing the best team in the world so will look to keep things tight to begin with, even though they need to score. I think Croatia's best chance of qualifying is probably to keep it tight til late on then try and nick a winner. The outstanding bets to me are Spain @ 1.87 with Boylesports and also Spain DNB @ 1.2 with Bet365. The draw no bet is obviously a lot more cautious but I also think it is probably better value. Just can't see Croatia winning the game at all. I think it should be 1.1 or maybe even lower. Of course this bet means if the 2-2 draw is played out or settled for, no money is lost. It's funny in a way to think of all the permutations when the most likely thing is that Spain will take it as they would any other game, keep the ball as they usually do and win with relative ease.

Some of what I said turned out to be correct, but I think I underestimated Croatia here and got a bit fortunate with my bets. The price on Croatia had drifted to 10's which in retrospect looks good value considering it could have easily come in, although I'm not sure the poor Spain performance could have been foretold.

[Jazzy Jim]

Re: So what's with the Spain v Croatia game then? Must admit I went with the conspiracy nutters but thankfully with just a small stake. Credit is due to both Spain and Croatia for playing the game with integrity.