waynemcke Posted February 6, 2005 Share Posted February 6, 2005 Just landed a $600 pot on a $1/$2 table but am unsure as to whether I should have still been in it! 3 players put $2 each in before the flop. I'm holding Q9 spades in first position. Flop is AsKs10h. I bet $4, player 2 raises all-in with $200ish, player 3 goes all-in with a similar amount and then its back to me. I've got a possible nut flush and an inside str8 draw and there's now a hell of a lot of money sat in the pot. I've got a shitload of outs but cannot fathom why they've gone all-in so quickly. Surely they both haven't got QJ! Is one holding AA? It was fairly early in my session at the table so I've got no real idea of how they play and I've got no notes on them. If they have both got QJ and I get my spade, I win. If they got trips and I hit my spade, I win but what about them drawing a FH? Although I haven't got a clue about the exact percentages whilst I'm playing, my gut instincts for value seem to work for me. And because of the amount of money in the pot I went for it and got my spade on the river. But, mathematically (Jezza), was it the right play? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 6, 2005 Share Posted February 6, 2005 Re: The right play? Wayne, what did the other two players actually have? I might have took one player on but with both going all-in i think i might have gave it a miss, on the reckoning that at least one of them had me well beat. On the other hand it made it a very valuable pot and maybe too good an opportunity to let go. Anyway mate well done for having the balls to carry it off! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 6, 2005 Share Posted February 6, 2005 Re: The right play? Wayne just put some hands into calculator and it came out like this. If player 1 had AA and player 2 had QJ The odds were; AA 35.7%, QJ 36% and your hand 28.3% If both players had QJ The odds were; 30.5% for them and 39.1% for you. Interesting! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynemcke Posted February 7, 2005 Author Share Posted February 7, 2005 Re: The right play? Didnt know at the time coz they mucked as I showed my hand first. Just checked the playcheck and both were holding a straight on the flop! Lovely! :lol I take your point about taking on 2 players but if I hit that final spade, they were both beat unless they were holding trips and they hit a FH on the turn/river. It was the fact they went from a $4 bet to both $200 all-in that was messing with my brain. I played the hand as I knew I had 9 outs to hit a nut flush and could possibly at least tie the hand if I pulled one of the remaining J (whether that be 2, 3 or 4 left). I guess it was the value in the pot that pushed me into it. Going off the calculations, seems like I was favourite anyway. And my gut intincts were right. Despite being behind, I was favourite. Cheers Billy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jezza Posted February 7, 2005 Share Posted February 7, 2005 Re: The right play? Hi Wayne Nice pot mate :D. The river must have been a lovely sight!!. As to if you had correct odds or not well you have to consider what your opponents hold and what you are drawing to in a situation like this. Your basic thoughts should be that you are drawing to the nuts and have an inside straight draw to go ontop of this - with two cards to come you have roughly a 47% chance to hit one of these. Of course almost an even chance on trebling your money should always be taken but you must also think that perhaps you are drawing to a split with the straight, or one of them has a set for the house draw so we have to take this into our calculations. Firstly I notice that neither of your opponents raised preflop (at least you dont mention it but it doesnt look like it). Because of this you can discount them having a set of aces or queens. It is POSSIBLE that one of them limped in first place with AA hoping to trap a raiser, but as you are the one in first place I would really doubt they totally slowplayed it. The only other set possible is TTT now again there is liable to have been a raise preflop if one of them had TT but for one I dont usually raise in full ring games with TT preflop so its quite possible one of these guys has not. The crazy action you are seeing on the flop certainly suggests this could be out there and if this was the case it makes your draw a bit worse as the possibility of being killed by a FH is there. If we take it as red one of them has TT then (unless he is a total idiot) the other guy must have either two pair or the nut straight. Your odds in those situations are as follows :- you V set/str8 - 28% you V set/2 pair - 35% This is not too bad, you have a slight deficit in one situation and a slight advantage in the other but as we thought before it is actually quite unlikey one of them has the set of 10s through the lack of raise preflop so these odds are OK. However if we dont think the TT is there the only other thing they can have to give you so much action is two pair or the str8 already, it is VERY likely the latter is held by one of them if not both. There is of course the fact one of them might be on the flush draw as well, a decent chance of this I would say and as you are drawing to the nuts (an important consideration in this sort of situation) you would have them LOCKED up - although it would negate your draw slightly. So looking at these situations (remembering you need 33.3% chance to break even - anything more is a long term winner and anything less is a long term loser) you vs 2 str8s - 39% you vs str8/2 pair - 34% you vrs flushdraw/2 pair - 34% you vs flushdraw/str8 - 34% You definately had correct pot odds to call as we can see - Yes it is a marginalish gamble and one you might chuck in the muck for all your chips in a tournament but you were playing a cash table and had the golden chalice of value so were correct to take it, even tho more often than not you would lose the times you win will more than make up for it. I think you have just replied saying it was the 2str8s you were up against? Perfect is all I can say!! And I would have loved to have seen the look on their faces as you bust them both in one hand :rollin Jez Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliensyndm Posted February 7, 2005 Share Posted February 7, 2005 Re: The right play? Or the short version, Yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynemcke Posted February 7, 2005 Author Share Posted February 7, 2005 Re: The right play? Jez, ta for that. Yeh I called the $2, the small blind called the extra $1 and the big blind checked. Not something I would have done with AA to be honest! Anyway forget the look on their faces! That link you posted the other day with the dancing Scandinavian. I did the Mancunian version. Not quite so gay with a few swear words in it. :lol Ta for your help Alien. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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