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aliensyndm

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  1. Re: NBA Saturday 30/4 Yes I am quite disgusted as I was on houston and the over 198 :lol They scored only 16 points in 8 minutes in the fourth quarter. Annoying as at end of 3rd over was available to lay at around 1.21 And houston were of course decent ahead and available to lay short as well but I didn't on either. Normally you don't get the chance, so I suppose I could pretend it's just like normal, but it's not ! My in running point is still decent...I mean you could have layed off after having backed at 2.9 the markets over react when there is alot of basketball left. Same way the s
  2. Re: Right Play...? I think you could argue a case for calling a minimum bet on the turn(provided the minimum bet was a low percentage of your stack) to try and catch a queen. If you do and he has a jack...you are gonna bust him. Also you could call a minum bet on river, again provided it's insignificant in relation to the size of your stack. You could be ahead anyway,....if not you get to see his cards and get some information. Obviously you have to be careful you dont get sucked in though. When I say low percentage of your stack I am talking like 2-3 %. Also the guy woudl have to have a st
  3. Re: NBA Saturday 30/4 Might be worth keeping an eye on in the in running markets for the playoffs on betfair. Certainly some prices that are outta line example.....dallas houston game after 9 minutes I think there were 32 points. Slightly behing the scoring level expected but a long way to go in the game !! The over 198.5 points was trading at 2.9 !! I mean an average of 4 points per min would give 36 points for 9 minutes, and a total of 192. So you can see they have to average just slightly above 4 points per min. 32 points after 9 mins and the over is now 2.9 !!?? I mean surely there is s
  4. Re: Right Play...? OK your initial raise is fine. Now you say on the flop he bets table minimum. I would raise here and find out where you are. Remember you're trying to put him on a hand. How much was your initial raise ? Alot ? A little ? I'm guessing not much as this guy has called with a pants hand. Now the flop....he bets minimum.....I would raise. Hands like AJ, KJ, JQ are in big trouble here. A possible danger hand is J 10. After raising you may find out where you are. If you are re-raised back....does he have J 10 ? (would be a strange had to call a big pre flop raise with tho) Ha
  5. Re: An interesting question Yeah ie why we are both talking about J6, J7 If've you got a hand like QQ it's going in without a thought, sure he could have KK AA but it's far more likely he doesn't.
  6. Re: An interesting question OK been thinking more.... With a hand like J6 you are never likely to be very far ahead. Best you can hope for is 10,6 9,6 8,6 7,6 5,6 4,6 3,6 2,6 J,5 J,4 J,3 J,2 But there are alot of hands you are ahead on --- J5 or worse, which is alot of cards. J,5-2 10,9-2 9,8-2 8,7-2 7,6-2 6,5-2 5,4-2 4,3-2 3,2 Ok now hands you are behind on, A,K-2 Q,K-2 J,K-7 Big behind on QQ,KK,AA also alot behing on TT,99,88,77,66, and still some behind on 55,44,33,22 So you look at the times you are behind, how likely they are and by how much compared to the hands
  7. Re: An interesting question Well like I said, better than J7 is a call anyway. As I also said.....the amount you pay...has to be relative to the amount you are likely to be favourite if you hence call. With 2,2 when you are favourite it's not gonna be by much so I suppose you wont be paying much to see. In which case yeah you are probably right in it's not worth paying much to see if you are slight favourite....there is an amount of cash which will be mathematicaly correct to pay...but it wont be much. It's not worth paying to see if you are a slight favourite actually is it ? Well 20p pe
  8. Re: An interesting question Interesting question. Well if your cards were better than J7 is it a call anyway as there's a slightly more than 50% chance you are ahead anyway. Regardless of whether you actually were ahead here....the maths say there's more chance you are. Hence it's still money in ahead. Hence no need to pay anything. If your cards were worse than J7 by chance you are behind, so you could pay something to see if you are actually ahead. Although it would depend how much. I mean £300 no chance. Say you have J3 and pay £300 to see his cards....there's a good chance he is a
  9. Re: AFL Rd. 6 Port adelaide available -10.5 at 1.909 at bet365. Can't find collingwood +39.5 anyway though. Best I can see is +36.5 at 1.885 pinnacle or +36.5 at 1.9 at betfair altho after commish thats worse. It will probably change a bit though of course.
  10. Re: NBA Thursday 28th Oh man, that was a serious close one. I'm glad they nailed the 3 pointer at the end so your +5 bet still won ! I was on miami -2.5 (not after eventing taz will confirm I was on this), I'm so glad I searched and got -2.5 instead of the -3. Makes all the odds checking seem worthwhile. It's annoying when you bust your nut to get a line half a point better and the team win by 30 but games like that make you feel your effort is rewarded ! There were so many ways that bet nearly lost, had NJ missed their shot with 4 seconds left. Nice the luck goes with you for once. Simil
  11. Re: Camp Hellmuth - no thanks I love watching hellmuth play. He's a big baby cnut at times but certainly interesting to watch and certainly very very talented ! Sad thing is beacuse of his attitue he may well be remembered for this rather than his exceptional poker skills. He's kinda like a poker john macenroe. I mean you could watch some very good players play poker and be all nicey nice etc.....is that entertaining ? Not really in my book. Or you could watch hellmuth. I know which I would rather be doing.
  12. Re: NBA Tuesday 26th. Yeah Im almost tempted to risk it but......I mean if I phone and ask them about it they are gonna say like erm what oh sh!t we have to void it. And I fancy seattle to win it anyway, but still. Selling points at bet 365 is a serious rip-off. If only you could sell more points at pinnacle !!
  13. Re: NBA Tuesday 26th. OK quick example - you can sell points at pinnacle and take seattle -4 at 2.15 Bet £120 quid say on sacremento +7.5 at 1.83 and 100 quid on seattle -4 at 2.15 If scaremento win or or seattle win by 3 or less you get back 120 * 1.83 = £219.60 , loss of 40p. If seattle win by 8 or more you get 100 * 2.15 = £215, loss of a fiver. But if seattle win by 5,6 or 7 you win both bets for a nice profit of £215 or if they win by 4 you still make a profit of £100 Effectively you are risking a 5er to possibly make £215. I'm sure you could tweak the figures slightly to g
  14. Re: NBA Tuesday 26th. Seems to be a bit of a pricing error at betdirect I think. Seattle game handicap seems to be -3 ish. http://www.betdirect.net/betdirect?action=go_dd&sport=other&level=TYPE&id=751&ev_id=287450 They have sacremento +7.5 at 5/6 Definitely out of line with the other prices, and you could probably create some sort of arb or give yourself 20/1 on seattle winning by 5,6 or 7 I think, if you sold points correctly elsewhere.
  15. Re: Really Stupid Question! Yip as Mark says. The all in man gets to see all 5 cards, and can win 50 chips from each player. Hence the pot he is playing for is 200 ( three 50s plus his own 50). Upon this bet being called you gather up the 200 chips and place them in front of player A to show this is all he can win. As soon as anyone folds from the hand they are not entitled to win any chips from any pots. I'm gonna complicate your example now. Say after the flop B bets 150 and both C and D call him. A is all in for 200. Now the turn happens. B bets his remaing 150. C raises all
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