Poland v Russia June 12th

[staffy]

[TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Poland v Russia (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.75 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.36 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]97.61 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[tougher than the rest]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th Yesterday I only missed the prediction on yellow cards (by a hook) because there were two reds instead :D The rest went just as I supposed - a huuuuge mistake by books on Greece +0,5 (who were unfortunate not to win - a missed penalty, a canceled goal from a narrow offside, a uncalled penalty after hand play from our defender and a dubious red card for Papado... whatsoever) and Poland to score under 1.5. Yes, Poland had two more superb chances by Lewandowski and Perquis but that was all. The one think I wrote you that I am proud of its accuracy - Poland doesn't have bench players and this sad prick Smuda gave a confirmation to this analysis by not using a substitute for the whole game :@ (golakeeper substitution doesn't count as it was forced by red card). But to the point Poland - Russia 2 @ 2,30 8/10 and Russia dnb @ 1,66 for 10/10 I can't understand why the odds at least at bet365 haven't changed since yesterday. Bookies still maybe think that Poland will recover as a host but I tell you - they won't. There are numerous arguments for this bets. Russia will be keen to complete the qualification vs Poland and to save legs in the last (probably meaningless game vs Greece). If they win they are also almost sure of finishing first. The game will be played on 12th June - national holiday "independence day" in Russia - some extra motivation should be in. What are their advantages over Poland - well IMHO they are superior in every formation, maybe apart of goalkeeping. Tyton vs Malafieev is quite an evenly matched pair. The decisive factor is of course offense. Arshavin, Kerzakhov, Dzagoev, Pawliuczenko vs Blaszczykowski and Lewandowski is a mismatch. Kerzakhov had a bad day yesterday as he could not convert at least one of numerous chances and was substituted for Pawliuczenko but he is a proven player and he cannot have a bad day every day. Arshavin is at his best - world class passing game. On the Polish side we have Lewandowski - who is also IMO already a world class striker - but there is one important thing about him. He is not a Ronaldo-type striker who can intercept the ball, run for 20 meters, do a trick and score from outside of penalty box. He must receive a good pass from the wing into the penalty area and then he can do something out of it. Vs Greece, who have cut off in the second half all passes to Lewandowski, he was then useless. I also think that the lack-of-substitutions did have a tremendous effect on the players mentality. Would you as a bench player be motivated and self-confident if you know that your coach doesn't rely on you unless a starter is sent off or broke a leg ? Would a first-team player feel good to know that regardless of circumstances there will be no support and no replacement from the bench ? I'm sure they feel flat after that game and have seen the manner Russians demolishedthe Czech Republic.

[Mustafa]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th Odds on Russia are really good. I have underestimated them against Czech Rep., but I am quite confident that they will beat Poland and secure qualification to the next round. Apparently 8 players in the starting line-up that won the other day play for Zenit, which means they know each other pretty well and that gives the Russians an added advantage against their opponents.

[maliniok]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th Just a random observation I made while discussing football and Poland's chances with my mates. Of course, as punters you may choose to completely ignore it. Poland's manager, Smuda, seems to have this funny ability of getting things right in the most hopeless situations when all odds are against him. A few examples: 1997 - Smuda is a manager at Widzew Lodz, they play the last game of the season away at Legia. Only win can give them the title, all other results mean that Legia are champions. On 88 minutes, Legia are 2-0 up and their fans already are opening champagne bottles. Somehow, Widzew manages to turn it over and win 3-2... 2008: Smuda is a manager at Lech Poznan who are playing the last qualification round for UEFA cup against Austria Vienna. The first leg result is lost 2-1 and 120th minute of the extra time of the return leg. Austria are losing 3-2 but they're through on away goals. Last second strike by Murawski gives Lech Poznan a 4-2 lead and progression to group stages. And finally: Poland - Greece - 1-1 Polish goalie is redcarded and a penalty given. I reckon some 9 out of 10 times that penalty would have come in meaning Poland are effectively out after first match. Somehow it's saved bu a reserve goalkeeper. The moral is don't write Smuda's teams off especially in the most hopeless situations. :)

[Mustafa]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th Russia played really well against Czech Rep. and deserved their win. It is important to note that most of their players play for Zenit, so they understand each other very well and as a result manage to produce results. Win for Russians will guarantee them place in the quarter final and if Greece fail to beat Czech Rep. the Russia will win the group. So, I am quite sure that Russians will attack and they have quality players to win this game and score goals, especially since Poland will be without their main goalkeeper. Russia @ 2.37 ​William Hill

[maliniok]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th I must admit that despite what I posted above I am much tempted by odds on Russia. On the evidence of the night they seemed like a very good, determined and purposeful team against the Czechs while Poland lived up to the media hype but only for the first 25 minutes. Like others above I think that Russians will win this match to guarantee promotion into QFs and the fact that it's some national, patriotic holiday on that day may just add to their motivation and performance. The only thing I can see going against this bet is the above mentioned Smuda's ability to bring a result when nobody really expects this... Russia to win @2.37 with WH

[wisey10]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th Russia -0.25 (AH) @ 2.075 bet365 i really like this line on Russia here. They look to be in good form and will be brimming with confidence after their good win in the first game. If Poland weren't the home nation you would be looking at this price on Russia just for the straight win. Being at home is obviously a big advantage but the Russians will have plenty of support there too. After failing to beat Greece, the pressure will be on Poland to take something from this game and that sort of pressure can be a burden. A win here will put Russia through and allow them the luxury of resting a couple of players in their last game. Theyve got a great manager and I think he will see his team come away with the 3 points. With only half stakes loss in the event of the draw, I'm very keen on Russia on this line.

[Gavlar17]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th Having a woeful tournaments with singles so far so looking at the under/over markets for this one. Definitely some value to be had in over 2.5 goals which is available at 13/10 with StanJames. Russia has a very offensive team and fingers crossed Polands stand in keeper has a howler.

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th Russian player fitness? Can someone, preferably from russia, give more info on fitness of russian players? They looked very tired in the 2nd half of the last game. Their game is very run intense. Other then that Russia looks like better quality in midfield. The greeks didnt even push the polish much but I dont see how polish can cope with the fast movement and passing from the russian midfield and attackers. The wingers are very pacy over the right side. Boenisch will have big problems. Poland needs to win but they need to sit back cause otherwise russia hits them easily on the counter. Russia can play their game and dictate tempo. I think if the other game goes X then they are more then happy with a draw vs russia. I think I go big on Russia not to loose @1,35 and with a good bet on russia to win @2,4 The odds are juicy. For the last game they will be much lower and less value then for this game.

[hoddspur]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th Russia to win 2.42 @ Betfair - Russia were very impressive against the Czechs and although Poland started off very well against Greece it seemed as though nerves got to them and they could have even lost it in the end if Greece had scored the penalty. IMO Russia are better than Poland all over the pitch and Poland rely on Lewandowski too much. Russia have lots of attacking options and should be too strong for the Poles and there is good value here IMO.

[kevshat]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th 5pts Russia to beat Poland 11/8 William Hill

I think the Russian front four will be too much for the Poles in this match. Yes the Russians will have to be careful of the threat of Lewandowski and also Blaszczykowski but if they can manage their threat them I’m very confident they will get goals. In the second half of their match with Greece, Poland were opened up on a few occasions without too much difficulty. Russia attack with a lot of numbers and I’m confident they will go on and win this match with that extra quality they possess. Full preview here:

http://www.punterslounge.com/poland-vs-russia-betting--russia-look-to-have-too-much-in-the-forward-areas-for-co-hosts

[Mustafa]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th So many people including myself are backing Russia. I hope they wont disappoint us and win this game. Good luck :hope

[Rob the I ty]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th Russia @2.40 seems too clear cut and juicy. Something tells me the Poles playing at home nick a draw. These countries have plenty of history off the field but so did the Czechs. Perhaps Poland will be better suited to drop back and park the bus. They didn't vs Greece but maybe being the underdog at home will be beneficial to them?

[Thales]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th Rob has a very good point. I don't think that Poland will go for the 3 points, they know that if they manage to pick one point, they can try to qualify in the last round, they can even qualify with 3 draws. With that in mind, things can get tough for the russians, the base of their game are the counter attacks, fast and mortal. I really don't know how well or creative they can be against a defensive side with two lines of four men behind the ball. That, plus the home factor, make me believe that the value is with the draw here.

[staffy]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th I think the Russians are looking good in this tournament and can see them winning here. The only draw back would be Poland are desperate not to lose but the odds for Russia DNB of 1.72 is to tempting for me. Russia to win DNB with skybet odds 1.72 Stake 10 points current profit 5.40 points

[Aidymac]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th I think Russia should be odds-on. Poland couldn't beat Greece with an extra man on the field in front of their home fans, that is how bad they are. Russia should rip them apart at the back. Odds-against has to be very good value imo.

[Derek]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th Morning all :-) Poland v Russia, the cards market here is one nobody seems to have looked at and its a gem of a bet for a couple of reasons. Firstly these teams/countries do NOT like each other. Expect crowd trouble and plenty of aggressive tackling as temperaments run high. Secondly, the ref..Wolfgang Stark. He is one ref who has no problem dishing out cards galore. One recent match had him pulling the cards out 9 times so he's hardly afraid to show the colors. I'm gonna have a small flutter on a red card @ 3.50 with Paddypower.

[TOTTI3]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th Poland vs Russia = over (2.30) stake 5/10 Preview: Poland: Suspended: Szczesny (goalkeeper) Poland drew the first game with the score at 1-1 against Greece. After a very nice first half ended with the advantage of his best man Lewandowski, in the second half of the men experienced a decline Smuda physical, mental concentration and giving the possibility to Greece mediocre team to break even and perhaps even to win if the player of Greece had not missed the penalty. Russia won the first game in style with a score of 1-4 against the Czech Republic, Russia is a strong team with an offensive department with the likes of Arshavin, Kerzhakov, Dzagoev. Both teams have the offensive department strong and can score at any time but they also have defenses that often grant some distractions. Match me with a lot of actions to goals saw that Poland must attack to try to win, giving Russia the opportunity to exploit the counter-attack with the likes of Arshavin, Kerzhakov, Dzagoev. Quote of the sign falling over a lot of books. Formations: Poland: Goalkeeper: Tyton Defenders: Perquis, Wasilewski, Boenisch, Piszczek Midfielders: Polanski, Blaszczykowski, Obraniak, Rybus, Murawski Forwards: Lewandowski Coach: Franciszek Smuda Russia: Goalkeeper: Malafeev Defenders: Anyukov, Berezutsky, Ignashevich, Zhirkov Midfielders: Denisov, Shirokov, Zyryanov Forwards: Arshavin, Kerzhakov, Dzagoev Coach: Dick Advocaat :hope

[CiderHead]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th This game is huge and expect it to be a fiery encounter. The fans aren't keen on each other and the tension will spread to the players on the pitch making them edgy and fired up. Both sides will come out and fly into tackles. A point isn't much use to Poland depending on the result in the earlier game between Greece and the Czech Republic. If Russia win they qualify and can take it slightly easier in there final game. Russia come in to this game after battering a poor Czech side 4-1 and it should of been by more if Kerzakhov hadn't missed so many chances. They didn't look particularly impressive in defence and a better striker could punish this. In Lewandoswki Poland have a player capable of scoring and if the midfield can provide him with opportunities he can trouble the Russian defence. Polands defence was pritty poor and was exposed by a Greek side who aren't great going forward. The Russian forwards will be able to cause the Polish defence more problems than the Greeks did. Over 4 Cards 2.25 Ladbrokes Russia Over 1.5 goals 2.5 Ladbrokes

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th Poland doesnt seem like a defensive side at all. I cant see them defending the whole game for a 0:0 . The greeks advanced the field very fast once poland sat back. Poland was in more danger sitting back then attacking. The wings from russia can do much damage to the polish wing play. The midfield is way stronger then the polish. Its "just" home turf thats on their side. I thinking about betting big on russia win and not to lose. Then a punt on lewandowski to get half of the stake back while all 3 bets are possible. Lewandowski is the go to guy in the polish squad. All the play espacially over the right side is tailored towards him. If poland wants to take something out of this game then they need Lewandowski. As I understand he is also their penalty taker.

[NoFear]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th I know everyone is all over the overs (no pun intended) but this game is like a derby (where home team has a decent advantage) and derbies are mostly low scoring and end in draws. To me a bet on double chance Russia-Draw at 1.40 seems better than overs or russiaDNB (1.72).

[luckygit]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th I am also backing Russia in this match, I can see Poland playing for a draw but Russia will have enough strength to beat them. Also A.Kerzhakov missed so many chances last game against Czech but can definately see him bouncing back and scoring in this game. Russia to win $2.37 Sportsbet A.Kerzhakov anytime goalscorer $3.30

[blackcrow]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th Russia @ 2.48 pinnacle Russia will be looking to win this game and thus seal passage into the next round and allow them to rest some of their players. They showed that they are very good going forward and still like their defence to contain what Poland has to offer. Not too confident in this Polish defence against the Russian attack, who showed with pace and skill, they will be hard to hold out. While the Poles may start off defensively, a draw is not a good result for them, as it may mean that they are not in 'pole' position to grab second spot in the group, so expect them to open it up in the second half which will allow the Russians to hit them on the counter.

[Acez24]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th

I am also backing Russia in this match, I can see Poland playing for a draw but Russia will have enough strength to beat them. Also A.Kerzhakov missed so many chances last game against Czech but can definately see him bouncing back and scoring in this game. Russia to win $2.37 Sportsbet A.Kerzhakov anytime goalscorer $3.30

Kerzhakov definately was able to create plenty of chances in the first game, pity he couldnt score( have backed him for overall goalscorer from the start) Do you think the will start with him or switch to Pavlyachenko after his impressive sub appearance?

[egger74]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th found this on William Hill web site think it is a good bet Andrei Arshavin to score anytime and Russia to win 8/1 what does anyone think

[LaptopsEros]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th Just bet on Russia - Draw no bet @ 8/11 (i dont get decimal odds) with bet365.

[Acez24]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th

found this on William Hill web site think it is a good bet Andrei Arshavin to score anytime and Russia to win 8/1 what does anyone think

Arshavin did look dangerous in the first game and would expect Russia to win this to clinch the group, looks like decent odds to me.

[western skies]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th

Just bet on Russia - Draw no bet @ 8/11 (i dont get decimal odds) with bet365.

Please don't forget to add some reasoning to your bets in future. Doesn't have to be an essay - just a line or two will suffice. :ok

[Fizruhas]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th Poland - Russia - Draw 3.1@unibet (4/10) Russia looked impressive in the first game, but i don't be so drastic to go on for it, because Poland playing at home and definetly kicking themselves after that 1st blow-out game vs Greece. First half they played really great football and greece had no chance tbh. I don't think that Poland will be just scare for Russia after impressive win vs Chech Republic, and will play football, not just counter attack, they playing at home and has to play for a win. This should be a great match to watch for thouse who just wants to see a football, not interested in bettings ... :) i see a draw out here, or even Poland winning it, everyone is shouting for Russia , and likewise it goes wrong.

[Gavlar17]

Re: Poland v Russia June 12th Any opinions on why Russia are drifting today? Injuries etc.?