Key Race : The Oaks Friday 1st June

[bowles10]

erm, a couple of big races next week and no thread up yet:unsure

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Key Race : The Oaks Friday 1st June Much more looking forward to this than the Derby I think this year - should be a great race. On The Fugue at fancy prices and fairly confident still. Having said that, with Twirl supposedly scoping badly, her impressive win at York is possibly tarnished a bit. Can't lose personally given the 20s I have on her and I hope she does the business. Plenty of rivals, though, and I guess my fellow '10 to follow' horse Maybe would be the one I would like to win should Gosden's horse not do the business. The sunny weather has helped her too.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Key Race : The Oaks Friday 1st June very tough race this .......... vow 85 + colima 80 the fugue 77+ as with other races the weather has played havoc with the trials and some horses havent had ideal preparations ......vow arguably has the best piece of work going into the race closely followed by the fugue .i think im going to go out on a limb here ........on paper i would expect vow to go close in this race so logically colima shouldnt be too far behind .......colima really didnt have the run of the race in the trial behind vow .....sshe was held up at the back (probably to make sure he got distance) and then came with a late surge to finish 2nd but the winner had already flown by that stage but it was a decent run nontheless ........now that they know she lasts the distance i would expect different tactics this time and the trainer has stated he thinks the horse will be better on turf as he didnt want to even run her on the a.w but needed a race to warm her up ........at present odds of around 16/1 colima just looks very good value to me and although it is equally likely that vow will improve and run him into the ground .....its also possible colima will improve with the turf and if held closer to vow when they make their runs she might out battle her given the way she came through from the back to finish 2nd lto ....... speculative bet but very good value colima 10pts e.w 16/1 betvic +a 5pt e.w double on colima 14/1 and main sequence 12/1 for the derby (nice payout if they both won )(bet365)

[cpo]

Re: Key Race : The Oaks Friday 1st June I like the look of Kailani here. Godolphin have supplemented her for the race after she romped home in the Pretty Polly by 7 lengths. I don't think for a second she beat anything in that race but she did it at a time the yard was struggling. Their horses have tended to need the run this season but they have been running much better recently. I think now with the yard firing, this horse has a good chance if she handles the ground. I don't think she would want it good to firm.

[TheRat]

Re: Key Race : The Oaks Friday 1st June Betterbetterbetter 40/1 NRNB is a cracker - I backed her ages ago and did again today. I heard she was a strong fancy for this from the yard and she might have been a tad disappointing at Chester but with the conditions happy to ignore that run. I also read in the Post today Jude, her mother, is 3/3 placed in the race. She is a massive horse and will get the ground she wants, following up her facile win at Dundalk. She might not quite be good enough, or even run but at 40s NRNB I think she represents massive value

[robertob]

Re: Key Race : The Oaks Friday 1st June Things are pretty clear since quite a long time for me as I've written also in the Antepost thread some month ago:

I've backed The Fugue for the Epsom Oaks (33/1). I thought she won very impressively at her only start to date at Newmarket. She didn't beat much but the way she did it was breathtaking as she had a bad start but still won hands and heels ridden and pulled clear with the second placed horse of the rest of the field. Well' date=' you never know what happens over the winter but I think she can progress over distance and I'm keen to see her back at the track.[/quote'] So obviously I hope that the Fugue will do the job on Friday. If there is "firm" included in the ground description I'll be very comfortable. Looks not unlikely at the moment, so I hope it stays warm and dry indeed, as I think she's a much better horse on a sound surface. Have to agree with TheRat as well, Betterbetterbetter looks a cracking bet at that sort of price.

[Trotter]

Re: Key Race : The Oaks Friday 1st June I've been looking through Nick Mordin's columns for his ratings and comments about the Oaks runners As Nick is the only columnist or tipster I pay any attention to I thought it would be interesting to see what he has to say...........here's his ratings, the race it was achieved in and a brief comment 39 The fugue (York) - best trial, fast ground action 39 Kissed - (Navan) - group one type, might be best with soft ground 38 Vow - (Ling) - didn't handle bend well at Ling, unsuited epsom ? 37 Better etc (Chester) - didn't act heavy at chester, good EW shot in Oaks 37 Devotion (Gns) - mid-distance type, go well in Oaks 37 Nayarra (Nell gwyn ) small filly 36 Twirl - (curragh) - staying type, could place in oaks So, according to Nick.............The fugue (3/1) is the one to be on with Betterbetterbetter (33/1) and Twirl (33/1) and Devotion (40/1) as EW alternatives I was impressed with The Fugue, that'll do for me for the win I like betterbetterbetter for the EW if only cos she ran on the AW at Dundalk and i like to support 'my' all weather runners...............:nana

[Trotter]

Re: Key Race : The Oaks Friday 1st June Kissed declared but might not run unless ground eases.............. No sign of that yet, another sunny day in the London area

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Key Race : The Oaks Friday 1st June Kissed out would be no bad thing for The Fugue - if not the race as a spectacle. Looks a cracker anyway.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Key Race : The Oaks Friday 1st June good luck everyone today with your oaks bets ..........i know a few are on the fugue and that would be a good result especially the ones on at big prices .........should be a good race and looking forward to it ........im still hopeful of a much better run from my horse colima today ...have been hearing some good reports of late and read this.. this morning : "One filly who does look overpriced is Colima, who finished second behind Vow at Lingfield, having raced at the back of a slow pace for the entire race. She was beaten three lengths by Vow, but that filly had the run of the race that day, and Colima is open to a lot of improvement, especially as the Lingfield race was her seasonal debut. She is best priced at 20/1 with Bodog and this does appear to be a value wager, as the price discrepancy between her and Vow seems too big." ... which is exactly what i said above so im just hoping she does herself justice on the day and runs her best race ......then i cant complain .......lets hope for a nice race

[switzerland]

Re: Key Race : The Oaks Friday 1st June At 3/1 The Fugue looks very very short to me and I'd have to pass her over. I'll take the angle that she was flattered a little at York (ground and possible excuses for Twirl). I haven't looked at the stats in too much detail but I can't remember many of the winners from that York meeting following up. Plus the Guineas was a strange race and I'm not convinced about the form just yet. If you ignore the Guineas then Maybe would be a lot shorter - there's an obvious question over her staying but she's the highest rated in the field and clearly the pick of the Ballydoyle group. She was pure class last year and was able to mix it with colts like Fort Bastion. At 7/2 Maybe is worth an bet to me. I also like the Colima/Vow line of form but I find it difficult to back either of them against Maybe.

[switzerland]

Re: Key Race : The Oaks Friday 1st June Kissed is now a non-runner. Anyone know if Ryan Moore can ride something else or is it too late?

[Trotter]

Re: Key Race : The Oaks Friday 1st June Oh well.......that was a bit of a waste of everyone's time......... :wall

[cpo]

Re: Key Race : The Oaks Friday 1st June Someone clearly knew something putting 10k EW on Was just before the off

[benreado]

Re: Key Race : The Oaks Friday 1st June Second time this season John Magnier has invited JP McManus to a Classic and landed gamble on a supposedly unfancied horse. There was a large bet on Homecoming Queen before she won the Guineas and now Was. We saw it at Cheltneham as well with a couple of McManus' owned horse. They get the public talking/punting one of their horses with top claims on all known form, when really they've got another horse lined up for the race that hasn't yet been allowed to show it's best form at a racecourse. Very clever really.