French Open 2012

[IAmGooner]

Re: French Open 2012 Took a few last night, some line changes and I've been having lots of trouble getting in here and posting. Was logged out a few minutes ago after posting, so brief summary. Tipsarevic vs Benneteau OVER 34.5 games @ 5/6 (PPower:4pts) Line at 35 now but still fine for me. Tipsy is in good form but def not as strong on the dirt compared to hard. Bit of a fight with Querrey who was bullying him for a while, and he was lucky to get out of the Chardy match in 3 sets. Frenchman choked at times there. Benney had a nasty fall a while back, eased in round one vs Zverez with some serve issues, was alot cleaner against Tursunov, solid performance. And I'd say he's in decent shape now to compete with Tipsarevic. Nadal vs Schwank UNDER 25.5 games @ Evens (Paddy Power:3pts) Still can get 25 AH or 25.5 in some outlets but prioce not as good as this. Rafa unlike Fed wants to kill you on every return game, fully expect him to be all over Schwank who will be happy to be here at all considering his form at times this year. Rus vs Goerges OVER 19 games AH @ 1.909 (Pinny:3pts) Can get 19.5 at better price, same thing, but like refund option here. Rus playing well right now, aggressive from the baseline with her forehand. Goerges no stranger to making life difficult for herself, even against Watson was close to extending that match in the second but came through 3 and 4 which is OK I suppose. Wil be surprised if Goerges wins an comfy clean match here. Murray -5.5 games vs Giraldo @ 5/6 (Paddy Power:L 3pts) If Murray finishes the match, he is winning this. Santi's hope is a retirement. Seen them play in Barca a month or two ago, Santi cannot hit through Murray consistently for me, too error prone and serve not exactly safe. Like the handicap as Murray can win sets by a big margin even if it drags to 4.

[Bepster]

Re: French Open 2012 anybody know what is wrong with Youzhny? He wins no points at all. Is he injured or something?! EDIT: Well, I guess Youzhny just got up with the wrong foot today. At least he carved "sorry" into the clay... Unfortunately "sorry" doesn't win my bet... :wall

[fishy25]

Re: French Open 2012 A further 3 from me then to add to Granollers who is now favourite with most places. Couple of these have already been mentioned. Rafael Nadal (-11.5 games) to beat Eduardo Schwank- 10/11 Ladbrokes- (7/10) My biggest bet of the tournament so far but I feel Nadal warrants it in this one and I don't see Schwank winning many games at all here. Even when fully fresh, his serve is a worry so Nadal will be all over it like a rash whilst you really don't expect the Argentine to get much out of the rallies either. You have to wonder how fit or tired as the case may be Schwank is, given he has had to come through qualifiers in Paris as well as a couple more matches on top of that as well. 5 matches is a pretty tough ask to then be put against the king of clay. Schwank hasn't even been having the best time of it on the challenger tour this year an in at least two of the sets here, I'd be expecting Nadal to win in it in no time at all. The Spaniard has covered this line against both Bolelli and Istomin, and I fancy him to do the same again here. Nicolas Almagro (-6.5 games) to beat Leonardo Mayer- 4/5 StanJames- (4/10) Seen enough of Almagro now to back him, given I've gone against him in both of his previous matches. The good sign for the Spaniard is that he hasn't dropped a set thus far, which given his history is an achievement as he usually lacks the concentration in 5 set matches against lesser opponents. Because he hasn't though, says to me his focus is there and his head is in the right place. His serving has generally been quite good this week, a touch better than his baseline ground-strokes but hopefully that will improve with the more tennis he plays. Mayer has played a fair bit of tennis over the last couple of weeks, with the World Cup last week and then a couple of tight matches in Paris as well. I'd be surprised if that plays a part though, but the problem is Almagro is a few levels above him on the clay. Recently he's lost to the likes of Delbonis and received a battering from Mahut which aren't great results for the Argentine and you have to feel Almagro is going to have too much for him here. The Spaniard will get some cheap service games whilst he should be putting Mayer under more pressure on return I'd say. Not taking the unders because Mayer does have the ability to pinch a set I fancy, perhaps early on, but I expect Almagro to take on set by a couple of breaks which should see the handicap through. Tommy Haas vs Richard Gasquet- Over 36.5 games- 5/6 BetVictor- (4/10) The line is a little higher than what it was with some last night but it still looks too low to me. These two guys have played out so absolute classics in the past, with 5 set matches in the Davis Cup and then also at the US Open as well and a similar thing could be on the cards here again today. The problem like Dylan has said would be the fact that Haas has played 5 matches in Paris after having to qualify so one wonders how much he has left in the tank but it has to be said, none of those 5 matches were anything but comfortable for the German so I think he should be okay in truth. Hammering Stakhovsky is a good sign for Haas as the Ukrainian is pretty solid all round so beating him so easily would have been pleasing, even if Stak was suffering a hangover from beating Dolgopolov. Gasquet hasn't look superb in either match so far, and he was perhaps a little fortunate that Dimitrov was pretty much needing a wheelchair to move about on court in the final couple of sets. Think I'm right in saying, although I may be wrong that the Frenchman was ahead in the first set there so with him losing it, shows me that the concentration lapses that he is prone to are still there. I just don't see Gasquet, who I think eventually will come through this one doing this the easy way. Haas has been extremely good recently, beating the likes of Tsonga and Baghdatis so he should have more than enough about him to keep this close. At least 4 sets, and perhaps a breaker in there by my reckoning and think this line should be covered quite comfortably in the end.

[devman]

Re: French Open 2012 Murray/Giraldo has to be a strong noplay for obvious reasons. Too many people easily agreeing on a Murray victory esp employing the handicap option. Big big trouble looms. Surely surely Giraldo has to be much much better than his last gloomy display with Murray. I see a very long game here or a surprise Murray loss. Remember if it looks too easy, then it probably isn't.

[baller77]

Re: French Open 2012

Rafael Nadal -11.5 vs Eduardo Schwank. 1.90 @ Bwin (7/10) How about a triple bagel here? Schwank has played so much tennis past two weeks one must wonder how much he'll have left in the tank. Bare in mind he played 3 matches in qualies and 7 sets in two rounds in main draw. The serve won't be a helper as he's tired and can't serve anyway. Can't see him winning much in baseline rallies. All in all, expect Rafa to crush the Argentine player. Rafa can afford to drop 6 games or even more in case of a handicap which I have chosen instead of unders. Both should work though. Carla Suarez Navarro to beat Yaroslava Shvedova. 2.00 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Like Navarro as an underdog in this match. She has made quarter finals in Paris before and is more of a clay court player than Shvedova is. The odds on Shvedova are this good only because she crushed Arvidsson 6-1, 6-0 in last round. Now, that result was always going to happen after the Swede was tired having played lots of tennis in Brussels a week before. Shvedova has played 5 matches including 3 in qualifying and has not beaten much, all average players. Now comes the real test. For me, Navarro has got the perfect game here. No one will bomb aces between these two, so the match will be won in the baseline battle. Navarro has got the game, she can run, she can hit some powerful shots, she can also change it up and play slices, dropshots. Shvedova is all about power and that is where she might stumble as Navarro will change it up all the time. Don't see her as a dog here. Caroline Wozniacki to beat Kaia Kanepi. 1.67 @ Pinnacle (6/10) No handicaps here, have had my lesson this week. Wozniacki has been surprisingly good this week. Maybe it's because she needs to impress her new coach, maybe she has hit her head and realized that she is slipping outside Top 10. Anyways, Kanepi might push Wozniacki all the way, as they have played three 3-setters and one close enough 2 set match, but in the end I expect Wozniacki to get a win. The only good thing about her is forcing turnovers and Kanepi is a mess. She can make tons of unforced errors, so in that regard Wozzi is a horrible match-up. I'd say Wozniacki in three. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to beat Klara Zakopalova. 1.86 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Zakopalova should not be here. Kirilenko made a huge mess of it in last round. She bottled the first set after leading 4-0, she lost 6 consecutive games and was later a break up in the 3rd set. Don't think Pavly will be handing out that many gifts. Nastia has got power and can hit through Zakopalova. Her first serve has been unbelievably good this week and double faults are not an issue yet. Pavlyuchenkova should out-power the Czech player who lacks in power, can basically only defend and hit occasional backhand. Not more than that. Although clay is not Pavly's favorite surface, I reckon she will win today. Too much to to fight off for Zakopalova. Marcel Granollers to beat Paul-Henri Mathieu. 1.91 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Granollers almost lost against Jaziri in last round. The Spaniard saved 3 match points, all on return which is kind of sick. Good defense was key in that comeback. Now for today's match I look at Mathieu and can't see him surviving best of five sets match after that sick encounter against Isner. Mathieu has not played much lately and will have dead legs. I can see a retirement in this match. Mathieu retired in FO against Granollers couple years ago and I genuinely think he'll do the same unless he gets 2-0 up and has a legit chance to win. Fatigue will be the factor. Granollers did play five sets in his last round too, but those were different kind of 5 sets, besides split through two days, so he's in a rhythm as is playing consecutive days. Besides Mathieu came back from 2-0 down against Phau in the first round. So it's like 12 sets played coz it was 18-16 in that epic Isner match. Bottom line, can't see Mathieu surviving this one, even against bone-head like Granollers. And the Spaniard will offer more on return than big John did.

Can't agree with the reasoning on Mathieu:Granollers match. The match against Phau was even shorter than Granoller's of that round. The match against isner was only an hour longer than the match against Jaziri but Mathieu has one day more to recover. So all in all the time they spend on court is very simillar but Mathie having one day more to recover since last match.

[slider24]

Re: French Open 2012 Shocking from Pavlychenkova ; shocking match in general. Hopefully Granollers can win but regardless that's me done for the French Open, not reading anything right in the tournament so far. Hopefully Wimbledon throws up a better draw with a few more interesting matches. Good calls on here today so far, Fishy on Mayer-Almagro and Dylan on Li-Mchale particularly impressive.

[Simmo]

Have only been following the tennis threads for a while, just wanted to say that the quality of some of the write-ups here is absolutely fantastic. Wish id checked out this part of the forum long ago. Well done guys, I think its amazing that you put in so much time and effort to help the rest of us.

[fishy25]

Re: French Open 2012 Really frustrating today. Almagro kicked the bets off nicely but then Haas didn't have enough left in him to win just the 3 games in 2 sets required for the overs but really annoyed that Nadal couldn't cover the handicap given how easily he won the first set. Thankfully Granollers pulled through in the end but do feel for Atko as when your pick loses after coming back from 2 sets down and then loses the final one it's horrible. Reminded me of Bogomolov against Llodra at the AO earlier this year. Really thought this was the day to fill my boots but really wasn't to be and now I'm sitting on a tame +0.91 for the tournament after such a good start. Not even bothering to look at tomorrow's card as I get the feeling I need to have a day off given the recent results. Same thing happened last year with the French in that I started off really well but then faded massively so hoping a day off will prevent that from happening. Will watch the Berdych match and hope he wins given the outrights, but that will be my only interest tomorrow and I'll stick to watching the cricket tomorrow. GL to those who get involved tomorrow :ok

[fishy25]

Re: French Open 2012 SeanV: I've deleted your posts and don't bother posting if you're going to say negative stuff about others.

[IAmGooner]

Re: French Open 2012 Yeah up and down meself today Fishy. 2/4 bets coming through. Rus overs + Murray h'cap - WIN Tipsy overs + Nadal unders - LOSS. Was very close to a full house - Tipsy playing fantastically atm but Benneteau had numerous chances in set 2 and also led 4-1 in set 3, couldnt get over the line in either set to pull me through. Nadal under 25.5 busted by a solitary game which happens, sometimes win these bets by one game so it goes both ways. No biggie. Nadal didnt return well at all in set 3, and tbf Schwank played a decent match for himself and deserved a close set or two. Not liking tomorrow's card at all tbh, not seeing many errors from the bookies.

[Psycho]

Re: French Open 2012 Won't talk about retarded bitches this time... (Pavly sort of admitted that she threw it away because has got damaged brain) Svetlana Kuznetsova -2 vs Sara Errrani. 1.79 @ Pinnacle (7/10) Kuznetsova destroyed Radwanska and should do the same with Errani. The little Italian should not have been here. Ivanovic totally gifted her the win. Ana won the first set 6-1 and then started producing unforced errors, total of 37 in sets 2 and 3. Kuznetsova has regained confidence, she's attacking, playing defense and doing all the things she did when she won this event back in 2009. Can't see any weapons for Errani. She basically needs to wait for Kuznetsova to start making errors. Lots of errors. Don't think it will happen. She is in a right place mentally and is finally enjoying her tennis again. Kuzy has won all 5 matches against Errani and on current form I can't see her losing. Novak Djokovic -9.5 vs Andreas Seppi. 1.93 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Seppi is another who should have been home by now. Verdasco absolutely wanted to lose his match against the Italian. Lead the first set 5-2 only to throw it away 5-7 and so on. Never interested in winning. By the way, Dasco was in London the very next day... Anyways, Seppi will be spent, he has played 13 sets and normally checks out after such a long run. Djokovic looks like he doesn't want to mess around after some tough early matches. I think there will be a bagel or 6-1 set for Nole which would ultimately help to cover this line. Victoria Azarenka vs Dominika Cibulkova. Over 20 games. 1.75 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Last FIVE matches between these two have gone three sets. Think it has got very good chance of getting this streak to continue. Cibulkova famously failed to close out their last match which was in Miami this year. Azarenka will be aware of that but Cibulkova is playing her best tennis on clay and can be very good counter puncher. Azarenka struggled against Brianti and Wozniak who are both worse players than Dominika. Should be a cracking match with lots of choking. Prolly close two sets or even 3-setter. Tomas Berdych to beat Juan Martin Del Potro. 2.18 @ Pinnacle (4/10) I honestly like Berdych to take out DelPo in these conditions. There might be rain in the morning, Berdo can hit through heavy surface. DelPo still is not 100% with his knee. Was struggling against Vasselin, barely closed out the 2nd set against Cilic (Marin then went missing mentally). Berdych recently beat DelPo in Madrid. Considering the Argentine has got an injury and Berdych will offer more resistance than his previous opponents, this could be his last match in Paris this year.

[Dylan]

Re: French Open 2012

Have taken these for tomorrow already; Tommy Haas vs Richard Gasquet Over 35 games 1.72 at Pinnacle (2.5 / 10 units) :wall Kaia Kanepi vs Caroline Wozniaki Over 20 games 1.75 at Pinnacle (2.5 / 10 units) :ok Li Na vs Christina McHale Over 18 games 1.75 at Pinnacle (2 / 10 units) :ok

Almost an excellent day but Haas's struggles at the end of that match let me down. Still in profit for the day and in the tournament but like a few here I'm having problems getting any momentum going. Nothing much is standing out at the moment for Sunday either. In the mens maybe a handicap on Novak would be the best bet, but I'm always loathe to take much bigger than -9 in these slams and at the moment with the price at 1.67 on Pinnacle I'm happy to wait and see whether it goes up any higher (its just jumped from 1.57). Given that Federer has dropped a couple of sets the overs may interest but lets be honest he's been playing in first gear really and I expect him to up his game as we enter the second week. Goffin may score some sympathy games for telling Roger that he loves him but i'd be surprised if he got more than 5 or 6. Might just watch it without a bet, unbiased hoping for the continuation of this great story for the Belgian. Wawrinka and Tsonga is likely to be at least 4 sets I feel but with the line set at over 40 games I'll think i will pass on that. Same applies for Del Potro vs Berdych, I mean anything could happen in that one. In the womens draw i think all of the underdogs are priced too low(maybe with the exception of Errani) but having looked at the handicaps or overs nothing jumps out. Will have another gander in the morning see if any prices / line have changed.

[Atko]

0/3 today. Miserable. Well done all Granollers backers, came through for you. Need to hope that Wawrinka claws back some losses tomorrow.

[dizzyme]

Re: French Open 2012 Roger Federer -9.5 vs David Goffin 1.885 Pinnacle Federer had a minor brain fart against Mahut where he dropped a set, having had to go to four sets so far in his matches he will be licking his lips at having to face young gun David Goffin next and will want to wrap this up quick. Goffin the lucky loser has had quite a run beating Kubot in the last round but this is a massive match for him and the nerves will definitely be there when he sees himself across the net from one of the best players of all time in a big match against a crowd that will be rooting for his opponent. Federer will be looking to start fast off the blocks and if his serve is on he will be blitzing Goffin with his serve. Remember just earlier this year in the Aussie Open where Federer faced a even more highly rated young player in Mr Tomic and he took care of him playing sublime tennis with the crowd rooting for Tomic as well. He cleared a handicap like this in that match and i expect him to do that again. Fingers crossed.

[Dylan]

Re: French Open 2012 Have taken two this morning; Novak Djokovic vs Andrea Seppi The price has moved just enough here for me to take this one. Seppi whilst being a very decent clay courter doesn’t stand any chance here. Djokovic will just be too much for him. Certainly after a couple of slightly more sluggish rounds in R1 and R2, he cruised through against Devilder and I expect as we enter the second week for him to up the ante. In all three of those opening rounds he matched or bettered this handicap and I anticipate the same today. He’s beaten Seppi all 7 times they have played, with the last 3 all being on clay. Although all came in ATP tour events rather than slams the winning margins for Novak in those matches were 7 games , 4 games and 7 games. Add in an extra set and you would expect the Serb to match or overcome this handicap. Certainly with Seppi toiling after two five setters and the fact that he can be his own worst enemy at times I expect at least one set, possibly the 3^rd set to be pretty much a white wash. Djokvic -9AH games 1.75 at Pinnacle (3 /10 units) Viktoria Azarenka vs Dominica Cibulkova I’m in agreement with Psycho here that this one may well go overs. Watching Azarenka this week she does seem to be playing with a bit more caution and trepidation than you would expect of a number 1 seed. Maybe the fact that she has never gone past the quarters here and that in general on clay she is far from the best in the world (I believe she’s only won one clay court title in her career, at a weak Marbella event) is getting to her. We saw her almost go out in dramatic fashion in round 1 against Brianti and she was extremely cautious against Wozniak in the last round, just making sure she did enough for the 6-4 6-4 win. Cibulkova is in an excellent run of form at this event and indeed on clay this year. She’s backed up that final appearance in Barcelona, with a couple of excellent Fed Cup wins and two more quarter finals after, and her first three rounds have been cruise control for her. The win over Sanchez, although it blew one of my bets was very impressive indeed. Certainly in that form she can really cause a lot of issues for Azarenka, and we have seen all the last 5 matches between this pair go into three sets and over this game line. Given how both a playing that looks to be likely again, a win may be a bit too much for Cibulkova once Azarenka digs in, but I envisage her giving the number 1 seed a scare along the way. Over 19.5 games 1.71 at Pinnacle ( 2 /10 units) :hope I'm think about taking Berdych +3.5 as well but may wait to see how these two go. If they give me a bit extra to play with then i'll have another look. Good luck all today.

[IAmGooner]

Re: French Open 2012 When did you get that 19.5 line, Dylan? Have only seen 20 or 21 on various sites. Might have been tempted had I seen that.

[benerop]

Re: French Open 2012 isn't del potro injured on his knee? So that could be a good bet for Berdych with low stakes:p

[Dylan]

Re: French Open 2012

When did you get that 19.5 line, Dylan? Have only seen 20 or 21 on various sites. Might have been tempted had I seen that.

Pinny had it this morning, but your right I didn't see it when I looked last night, so not sure when they put it on. Boyles also had it at 1.67 I think. Might be worth seeing whats available in play?

[fishy25]

Re: French Open 2012 Looks like another tricky day today betting wise with Djokovic and Federer dropping sets. Glad they've stopped playing in the Berdych match as with the way things were going, Del Potro could have won that fourth set in no time at all. Hopefully a change of day will bring a change in momentum. I've got my eye on a few tomorrow so waiting on the lines/prices and what not. Have taken one just now and will put that up here as the line won't last for too long. David Ferrer vs Marcel Granollers- Under 28.5 games- 8/11 Bet365- (4/10) I would have been happy taking the unders on a 27.5 line here so the extra game is a bonus. Taking the unders are always a tad risky in slams but it's hard to see Granollers having anything left to push Ferrer in any way. He is coming off the back of 2 absolute epics against Jaziri and then Mathieu, and that match against the Frenchman will have tired him out physically and mentally as he had to cope with the crowd in that one. You could see just how tired he was in that fifth set against the Frenchman, serving and volleying whenever he could and taking plenty of time between points on serve. He had a little extra than what the Mathieu had which saw him through but if there's anyone he wouldn't have wanted to play it would have been David Ferrer. The little Spaniard is an absolute nightmare to play when you're far from 100%, as he'll run for everything and push you all over the court which is the problem for Granollers here given the amount of tennis he's been forced to play last week. Even at your peak fitness, a match with Ferrer will exhaust you and given how Granollers must be feeling the effect of his 14 sets already played in Paris, I fancy Ferrer to win this with plenty to spare. 6-4 6-3 6-3 even covers this line which looks really good to me so I'll back the unders here.

[Atko]

Looks like another tricky day today betting wise with Djokovic and Federer dropping sets. Glad they've stopped playing in the Berdych match as with the way things were going, Del Potro could have won that fourth set in no time at all. Hopefully a change of day will bring a change in momentum. I've got my eye on a few tomorrow so waiting on the lines/prices and what not. Have taken one just now and will put that up here as the line won't last for too long. David Ferrer vs Marcel Granollers- Under 28.5 games- 8/11 Bet365- (4/10) I would have been happy taking the unders on a 27.5 line here so the extra game is a bonus. Taking the unders are always a tad risky in slams but it's hard to see Granollers having anything left to push Ferrer in any way. He is coming off the back of 2 absolute epics against Jaziri and then Mathieu, and that match against the Frenchman will have tired him out physically and mentally as he had to cope with the crowd in that one. You could see just how tired he was in that fifth set against the Frenchman, serving and volleying whenever he could and taking plenty of time between points on serve. He had a little extra than what the Mathieu had which saw him through but if there's anyone he wouldn't have wanted to play it would have been David Ferrer. The little Spaniard is an absolute nightmare to play when you're far from 100%, as he'll run for everything and push you all over the court which is the problem for Granollers here given the amount of tennis he's been forced to play last week. Even at your peak fitness, a match with Ferrer will exhaust you and given how Granollers must be feeling the effect of his 14 sets already played in Paris, I fancy Ferrer to win this with plenty to spare. 6-4 6-3 6-3 even covers this line which looks really good to me so I'll back the unders here.

Couldn't agree more with the unders :ok

[Dylan]

Re: French Open 2012 Hmmmm, and there was me thinking that the over 27 games was an interesting option. Might have to think again now if both of you are fancying unders. I just don't feel like Grannollers is that bad of a player not to make much of an impression on this match. Having seen Seppi be competitive for all 5 sets today having had 2 five setters himself I do think fitness is getting less of an issue as the guys seem to have really upped the ante in that regard. They would have had to if they want to compete with the best players like Rafa and co. As for today, a bad call of Djokovic spoilt the card after Azarenka vs Cibulkova went overs. Have already taken one for tomorrow; Varvara Lepchenko vs Petra Kvitova Just like Schiavone and Jankovic in the rounds before I think Kvitova is in for a right battle in this match. I love watching Lepchenko play at the moment, she has a great attitude and great confidence at this stage and she’ll not be overawed in the slightest by the opponent or the occasion. I’ve seen Lepchenko called a grinder but I think that is putting her down a bit too much. Sure she is non stop around the court, and at 5’11 has a good reach, but she can also cause a lot of trouble with her own shot making. As a lefty her opponents will naturally approach her a bit of trepidation, but her slighty un-natural shot making technique can help disguise shots, hit a few winners and produce plenty of spin. Something not too many other women players can do with such ease. She’s been on a good run here, which followed a good run in Madrid a month or so back plus some others on the hard courts earlier in the season. With the Olympic squad a real possibility she’ll have the motivation to carry this form on, in what has been a real breakthrough season for her (she started it 127 in the world) Obviously I’m not discounting Kvitova here, we know what she’s capable of and whilst never bar the win in Madrid last year made much in roads at clay events she is still a tough and pragmatic player from the baseline, who will relish the challenge of Lepchenko. But it will be a challenge, a couple of long sets or maybe a third as in the two previous rounds look sure to be in store in this one. Over 18.5 games 1.79 at Pinnacle (4 / 10 units) Other than the Ferrer match mentioned above, i've got my eye of a couple of others; Tipsarevic on the + handicap (Pinnacle offering +5 currently) and also maybe the overs in the Rus vs Kanepi game. Tipsarevic is especially interesting as I can't see Almagro being able to run away and dominant the Serb. 3 close sets could just about cover this and even then I would imagine Janko to fight hard enough to win at least one set himself.

[fishy25]

Re: French Open 2012 Seppi-Djokovic match was a little different tbh mate. From the stuff I saw, Djokovic made so many errors early given his high standards and he was broken on a regular basis throughout the first half of the match. Problem for Granollers is Ferrer is the hardest working player out of the top players and will make his opponent run and run all day long and isn't going to make many unforced errors. Watched the final set of his match against Mathieu and you could see just how tired he was by the fact he tried to serve and volley when ever possible due to lack of energy around the court. Perhaps could have been the adrenaline that saw him through that one, but I sort of expect a bit of a hangover from the Jaziri match on top of the Mathieu victory tomorrow. Have to remember that Ferrer is arguably the freshest guy in the entire tournament right now - hasn't dropped more than 4 games in any set in Paris. Up to you if you do decide to take the overs, but things to consider there.

[hudsonhawk]

Re: French Open 2012

Couldn't agree more with the unders :ok

Waw,I'm so surprised with that guys.I have to go with the overs,especially 27.5 @ 10/11 at this stage of the competition.I'm sure Ferrer will win but not as easy as u guys reckon

[Dylan]

Re: French Open 2012 Excellent point well made Fishy, it's crossed off my shortlist now. I do think in general that the fitness of the lower ranked players has improved considerably though in the last 18-24 months. Guess thats why it's harder for teenagers to establish themselves in the game. I think Tomic was the only one at this event. It's similar with the women too. But still given the opponent is Ferrer, the idea that Grannolers might get pushed over the edge is not an unlikely one.

[fishy25]

Re: French Open 2012 Yeah if your gut is telling you overs, go with it definitely. I have a feeling it will be fairly comfortable for Ferrer though but given my recent bets, Granollers will probably win in 5 :lol I've taken 3 others tomorrow as well for the men's side of things in what looks to be quite a good billing given we have the Tsonga-Wawrinka and Berdych-Del Potro matches to finish as well. Andy Murray (-3.5 games) to beat Richard Gasquet- 10/11 StanJames- (6/10) Paddy Power have this handicap a game lower it's worth me mentioning but I don't have an account with them and I think Murray will cover both lines anyway. It's almost impossible for me to ignore this kind of line on Murray against Gasquet really despite the Frenchman beating him a few weeks back in Rome. The truth of the matter is that Murray owns him really. Ever since that match at Wimbledon where Murray came back from 2 sets down, he's had the Frenchman's number and I'm sure there's something that's always lurking at the back of Gasquet's head telling him he can't beat Murray in a grand slam. That's epitomized by the fact he lost from 2 sets up again in the French a couple of years back and in my eyes, there's a mental problem for Gasquet in this match-up. It's interesting to note that Gasquet has won every single tour event against Murray other than the 3 grand slam matches which really says it all to be honest. Watched most of the match between the 2 in Rome and I'm not sure how Murray didn't win even though he was struggling with injury. In that first set, he was a break up and virtually had break points in all of Gasquet's service games and you have to feel if he wasn't struggling, he would have hammered the Frenchman. Now I know he's not 100% now either, but he didn't seem to have any problems against Giraldo which was a good sign and there's not been any talk of the problems worsening so I think he'll be fine for this one at least before facing Ferrer. Gasquet played some good stuff against Haas before the German ran out of steam but the problem for him against Murray is how far back he stands on the baseline which you really can't do against the Scot. Murray's variety and ground strokes are far better and more consistent that Gasquet's so standing well back and playing the rallies isn't going to work. Like I've said, it's arguably more of a mental problem for Gasquet here than anything else, and whilst I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a set, even if this went to 4 or 5 sets, Murray could quite comfortably cover this rather timid handicap as I expect him to make it 4-0 in the grand slam H2H between the two. Rafael Nadal (-9.5 games) to beat Juan Monaco- 4/5 StanJames- (4/10) Pretty good friends the two of these are but I fear for the Argentine here. Backed Nadal in the previous round with the handicap which he didn't cover, but I'm willing to give him a second chance for a few reasons. The first being that he himself, and Uncle Tony will know he didn't play well enough against Schwank. He started off well, but as the match progressed, more errors came into his game and on return, it simply wasn't what we have come to expect from the Spaniard so I really expect him to fix that and play a couple of levels above what he played against Schwank. Monaco is also coming off the back off a gruelling match against Raonic, which will have exhausted him, especially after not having it completely his own way against Rufin and Rosol before that. The thing that worked so well for Schwank against Nadal at times was the serve and volley, and the drop shots forcing Nadal to move about. Monaco won't be doing any of that and will stick to the baseline rallies which you simply cannot do against Nadal on clay as once he gets onto his forehand, it's lethal. The H2H really shows how Monaco has struggled against Rafa, as in the 3 matches played on clay, he has failed to more than 3 games in any set, and in each match, Rafa has run away with at least 1 set, if not all 3 as he did in the Davis Cup at the back end of last year. The Argentine has played well recently, taking a set of Djokovic and beating Raonic here in Paris, but it's hard to see Nadal being too tested here. Monaco may have the ability to keep it close for a set, but given how I expect Rafa to really tighten up his game from the previous round, I think he'll win a couple of them with plenty to spare which should see the handicap through. Janko Tipsarevic vs Nicolas Almagro- Over 38.5 games- 5/6 Stan James- (4/10) Think this will be the match of the round and can't wait to see this one. I actually think Almagro will win come the end of the match and considered backing the Spaniard on the handicap but at closer inspection, the overs look a better choice to me. Almagro beat Mayer in the previous round so easily it's untrue. He was never under any sort of pressure and just had way too much for him and he is playing really well at the minute and that's shown by the fact he didn't drop a set last week which is unusual for him to do in a slam. Tipsarevic hasn't been as convincing, with Querrey and Chardy making him work and Benneteau probably should have made the match longer than it actually was in the previous round but his confidence must be sky high right now given that he is on a 7 match winning steak on the clay. As I've said, I do expect Almagro to beat him, but this will be the first serious test for the Spaniard so far and it'll be interesting to see how he copes with it. Lorenzi and Baggy managed to trouble him in parts of their matches, and Tipsarevic is a good couple of levels up from them. Have a feeling both will be fairly solid on serve throughout to be honest which should lead to a tie break or two, and given how I don't expect to see any less than 4 sets, perhaps all 5, think the overs should be covered in what could lead to a really good quality match here.

[devman]

Re: French Open 2012 This tournament so far has refused to allow punters enter into any kind off set rhythm as we get bombarded daily by the turbulence of imponderables. PL states that reasons must be given to support picks. Permit me to say at this stage of this strange tourney that it does not really matter now considering the way things have been panning out. Our reasons seem to be enough reason why a particular selection should not win. lol! Call me cynical if you May. But i honestly believe that we all would have done a lot better on here playing the opposite of all our accumulated picks. And so with reason which really is without I am confidently picking TIPSAREVIC over ALMAGRO. The two have not met before but I believe Tipsy is playing the most convnincing tennis at the moment and seems to be overshadowed by the reputation of ALMAGRO whom I do not expect much from. Prior to the French he was mundane and ordinary and I expect thongs to remain so. Odds too are indicative of shyness. I am waging a 250 single on a mild 7/4. looks easy pickings to me. Although I am only having the one bet, I am also picking Granollers/Ferrer to conspire by design in that all Spanish affair to go over 27.5games. Dylan stay put where you were. Granollers would have gone way past the target before fatigue starts to set in. Glow everyone!!!!

[Alovenac]

Re: French Open 2012 Gasquet R. - Murray A. Gasquet will be facing Murray. The Frenchmen have already beaten Murray this season on clay in Rome and he playing very well also this tournament. Struggling one set against Haas, but beat him very well in the last 3 sets in that match. Murray was struggling one set against Nieminen with a injury, but he had a very good victory against Giraldo in the last round. Gasquet is leading 4-3 in the Head 2 Head, and Murray don't have it easy every match against the Frenchmen. I see the Frenchmen taking one set at least and maybe more. 4/10 Over 37 games @ 1.83 Pinnacle

[Dylan]

Re: French Open 2012 Morning all. Just taken one more for todays play, think that will be that for these 4th round matches. Jarko Tipsarevic vs Nic Almagro Not much time to write this one up, but as Fishy has mentioned this could be a tight match and its relatively difficult to call the winner. I would however in nervy tight situations put more hope on Tipsarevic coming through than Almagro, who is probably more error prone. Certainly the fact that he’s come through the first 3 rounds with consummate ease makes me think he maybe we saving up some of his mistakes for this one. From a playing style perspective both are relatively similar in style so no one has much if an upper hand there so the mental side of the game could be key today. Whilst both are on 7 match winning streaks for Tipsarevic this is probably more of a surprise given that clay is not really his strongest surface, so it must be giving him a lot of confidence going into to this one. He’s already beaten the likes of Simon, Djokovic and Berdych on clay this season. Almagro as a clay court specialist is another big challenge but he will fight hard and I can’t see any chance that the Spaniard will run away with this one and it looks like tight sets all the way. If that’s the case then even if Almagro won in 3 this handicap has a chance of coming in, but I think that’s an unlikely scenario so if the Serb can get himself on the board set wise then this handicap could well be good to go. Tipsarevic +5.5 games 1.75 at Pinnacle ( 3 /10 units) :hope Good luck too everyone having a punt today.

[paul21144]

Re: French Open 2012 Very surprised by people backing Murray here. As stated above, he has a 4-3 loss record to Gasquet previously. Gasquet also beat him recently on clay. Add into the mix, that Murray wasn't fantastic last time out, that it's on clay his worst surface, he's injured, and Gasquet will be cheered on by the home crowd. To me, Gasquet at 11/8 with Bet 365 ( gonna look for a better price if there is one ) is an absolute must. I cannot see Murray getting the job done at all. Gasquet all day long for me.

[maliniok]

Re: French Open 2012 Hi folks - I'm here to ask for an opinion as I don't usually bet on tennis. Had a pre-tournament combo bet on first 3 seeds to reach semis @ 2.05, stake: 10. So far so good but I think that especially Federer looks fragile and with Del Potro being much younger than him, a sort of rising star I wonder if it's worth trading it out. Odds aren't great @3.4 with B365 so do experience tell you that I should wait as people will take Federer and odds on Potro will rise or maybe I should wait till the game and see if Fed can have a good start and then trade it or just let it run?