Lars Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 DALHAAN has now dropped to his last winning mark of 67 and for a horse that shapes as if he’s in very decent form currently and he could make the switch back to the Flat a winning one, especially with Ian Mongan booked again and running over ideal conditions. His last win came off this rating in December 2010 over this C&D, in a race which turned into a sprint. He won by 4.5 lengths and that proved he could operate a little bit higher level than this one, even though the form of that race could hardly taken as gospel seen as the pace of the race was quite unusual. He hasn’t really shown the same form since, but shown signs of life recently when running over hurdles. He didn’t make much of an impact in Novice events, but shaped with promise in a competitive Jumpers Bumper here at Kempton before backing that up with a solid 2nd to a well-handicapped animal on his first try in Handicap Hurdle company 19 days ago. That proved he’s in good form now and he could well capitalise on the handicapper giving his flat rating a chance on the basis of a poor run over 1m2f here in August. That trip is on the sharp side of him and he didn’t stand a prayer really . Back to two miles, back to Kempton and with a positive jockey booking in Ian Mongan (4/21 for yard), he looks pretty decent value at this 14/1 price. There isn’t really much confirmed pace in this race but that shouldn’t inconvenience him too much, having won off sedate gallops before and I just hope that Ian Mongan positions him closer to the pace. If he does, then he has an excellent chance here off top-weight (which he has no issues in carrying) and I still think a rating of 75 is certainly extremely achievable, so he looks quite well-in off this mark of 67 and I think he’s worth a fair bet, especially in quite a poor race. The Absent Mare is probably the biggest danger if coming on for her latest start off a break, but she’s little in the way of value and I just feel that Dalhaan should be closer to 7/1, so the double the price available currently is well worth taking. Bets 17:20 Kempton – Dalhaan; 3pts @ 14/1 BetVictor (bog) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Flat Racing; Monday 19th March 2.50 kemp : black cadillac 90 chjimes 86 black baccara 86 rambos will 85 sherjawy 82+ i wasnt going to touch this race with a bargepole as its so close and competitive its untrue ,but looking at the form more closer ...chjimes hasnt won away from lingfield so could put a line through him (especially off 5lb higher mark ) black cadillac looks dangerous and could run well but a fast run after a layoff ,wide draw and ran few days ago all negative for me so 3/1 is crap .rambos will looks a tad high in the weights at present but e.w possibiltys .....the 2 to focus on for me are sherjawy ....who gets a light racing weight today and i think that will help a lot and black baccara who ran really well lto and his clock rating puts him bang in the mix today . sherjawy is popular and i can see why as he won here 12 monthes ago and looks to be back into some kind of form so an e.w bet around 11/2 looks good but there is 12/1 available with boylesports about black baccara which is twice the others prices and he has a nice draw in stall 2 which if getting a good start he might be very difficult to come back at ....black caddilac and chjimes potential big dangers .....but value has to be black baccara and at 12/1 boyles ...looks worth a play to me 2pts e.w black baccara 12/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Flat Racing; Monday 19th March 4.50 kemp ....another ultra competitive race piscean 87 greensward 84+ chilli green 83 dozy joe 83 for me ......i instantly spotted greensward ..who looks like he has been layed out for this .....ran a 84 lto (first race ) and has run really well here before and can be expected to improve on that ,nice draw today and has the class and speed to win this ,13/2 generally looks decent but competitive race so just 1pt e.w Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertob Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Flat Racing; Monday 19th March 17.20 Kempton: Agree with Lars about Dalhaan. The horse has a really good chance in my mind as he's down to his last winning mark when he won over course and distance in December 2010. No win since then but I thought he ran well in the Bumper last month here at Kempton and his good form was confirmed by a second place in a Handicap hurdle after that. Ian Mongan is back in the saddle who steered home Dalhaan at the mentioned win here at Kempton. Got yesterday evening @15/1 for Dalhaan what is way too generous in my book and I feel he can outrun his price. I'm also interested in Blackstone Vegas here as I feel @20/1 is not the right price for his chance in this race. It's eye-catching that Joe Fanning (rode recently a winner for this trainer) is booked for the ride as he's riding outstanding this winter. Blackstone Vegas has never won over 2 miles and didn't run well recently but he's now down to a mark of 56 of which he should be competitive. He was beaten by a nose at Wolverhampton (over 17f) and finished a good second the next time to Seaside Sizzler over 2 mile (albeit seven lengths beaten) of the current mark in April and May 2011. He stayed on very well in both races and that suggest that the distance is no problem. Therefore I think Blackstone Vegas is overpriced and I can see him finishing very well in an open race. Blackstone Vegas @ 20/1 William Hill + Dalhaan @ 12/1 Boylesports Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Flat Racing; Monday 19th March *Greensward - Kempton 4:50* Is 1 win from 1 run at the track and that was over C+D. Does not stay a mile, so scratch it's last run. Will be much more suited to 7f here, Kieran O Neill a good jockey booking, on a fair mark and every chance of making in 2 from 2 at the track if back to form. *1 Point WIN @ 9/1 >Bet365 BOG* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
razzledazzle Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Flat Racing; Monday 19th March *Greensward - Kempton 4:50* Is 1 win from 1 run at the track and that was over C+D. Does not stay a mile, so scratch it's last run. Will be much more suited to 7f here, Kieran O Neill a good jockey booking, on a fair mark and every chance of making in 2 from 2 at the track if back to form. *1 Point WIN @ 9/1 >Bet365 BOG* again aid, you pick out a horse that iv'e had my eye on.....- great minds must think alike huh :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Flat Racing; Monday 19th March 4.20 Kemp - Gower Rules - win at 11/2 Skybet I was hoping for much better odds on this but the overnight favourite is a non runner which has b*ggered the market.................:wall Front runner, should get an easy lead here, drawn in stall 1, has won at the track, has a distance win, 2 lbs below last winning mark, 2nd run back after a longish break and comes out top on the speed figs So........quite a lot going for him ! Against - beaten 16 lengths on his last run (still managed a better lto speed fig than any of the others). Hopefully needed that run after a break and will be fitter today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Flat Racing; Monday 19th March 3.50 Kemp - Casual Mover - win (currently 11/8 best odds) Missed the price on this one which was 11/4 last night when I looked at the race. No non runners yet so the shortening price probably reflects confidence in his chance Won a decent race last time at ling, recording a big speed fig. Is lightly raced and looks to be on an upward curve compared to most of his rivals who are pretty exposed handicappers Main market rival, Woop Woop, is coming back from a break and might need the run and looks better over further in any case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Flat Racing; Monday 19th March again aid' date=' you pick out a horse that iv'e had my eye on.....- great minds must think alike huh :)[/quote'] Best of luck Razzle, hope it runs well mate... All this money for Crown Counsel is a bit worrying though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Flat Racing; Monday 19th March 3.50 Kemp - Casual Mover - win (currently 11/8 best odds) Missed the price on this one which was 11/4 last night when I looked at the race. No non runners yet so the shortening price probably reflects confidence in his chance Won a decent race last time at ling, recording a big speed fig. Is lightly raced and looks to be on an upward curve compared to most of his rivals who are pretty exposed handicappers Main market rival, Woop Woop, is coming back from a break and might need the run and looks better over further in any case. Good luck Trotter, if the markets are anything to go by, this horse will be very tough to beat. Got 7/4, but did miss the 11/4, The Saint got good value on this. Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Flat Racing; Monday 19th March Good luck Trotter' date=' if the markets are anything to go by, this horse will be very tough to beat. Got 7/4, but did miss the 11/4, The Saint got good value on this. Good luck[/quote'] Having missed the price I decided not to back it.............which probably means it'll win by 10 lengths on the bridle...................:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Flat Racing; Monday 19th March 2.50 kemp : black cadillac 90 chjimes 86 black baccara 86 rambos will 85 sherjawy 82+ i wasnt going to touch this race with a bargepole as its so close and competitive its untrue ,but looking at the form more closer ...chjimes hasnt won away from lingfield so could put a line through him (especially off 5lb higher mark ) black cadillac looks dangerous and could run well but a fast run after a layoff ,wide draw and ran few days ago all negative for me so 3/1 is crap .rambos will looks a tad high in the weights at present but e.w possibiltys .....the 2 to focus on for me are sherjawy ....who gets a light racing weight today and i think that will help a lot and black baccara who ran really well lto and his clock rating puts him bang in the mix today . sherjawy is popular and i can see why as he won here 12 monthes ago and looks to be back into some kind of form so an e.w bet around 11/2 looks good but there is 12/1 available with boylesports about black baccara which is twice the others prices and he has a nice draw in stall 2 which if getting a good start he might be very difficult to come back at ....black caddilac and chjimes potential big dangers .....but value has to be black baccara and at 12/1 boyles ...looks worth a play to me 2pts e.w black baccara 12/1 black baccara wins 12/1 !!!!! returns about 32pts ....nice sherjawy was 3rd and black baccara ran an 86 !!!! (spot on ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Flat Racing; Monday 19th March Having missed the price I decided not to back it.............which probably means it'll win by 10 lengths on the bridle...................:lol Well i am waiting on it for my double with Theleze, both 7/4.... Doubles are hard to get up, but fingers crossed... :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBoyRooney Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Flat Racing; Monday 19th March well done richard with bb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Flat Racing; Monday 19th March black baccara wins 12/1 !!!!! returns about 32pts ....nice Well done Mr Westwood. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Flat Racing; Monday 19th March Well i am waiting on it for my double with Theleze' date=' both 7/4.... Doubles are hard to get up, but fingers crossed... :lol[/quote'] Good luck with that one aidy.............. Well done richard with BB I've got Red Shuffle top rated on the figs in the next..........4/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuSimmy Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Flat Racing; Monday 19th March 2.50 kemp : black cadillac 90 chjimes 86 black baccara 86 rambos will 85 sherjawy 82+ i wasnt going to touch this race with a bargepole as its so close and competitive its untrue ,but looking at the form more closer ...chjimes hasnt won away from lingfield so could put a line through him (especially off 5lb higher mark ) black cadillac looks dangerous and could run well but a fast run after a layoff ,wide draw and ran few days ago all negative for me so 3/1 is crap .rambos will looks a tad high in the weights at present but e.w possibiltys .....the 2 to focus on for me are sherjawy ....who gets a light racing weight today and i think that will help a lot and black baccara who ran really well lto and his clock rating puts him bang in the mix today . sherjawy is popular and i can see why as he won here 12 monthes ago and looks to be back into some kind of form so an e.w bet around 11/2 looks good but there is 12/1 available with boylesports about black baccara which is twice the others prices and he has a nice draw in stall 2 which if getting a good start he might be very difficult to come back at ....black caddilac and chjimes potential big dangers .....but value has to be black baccara and at 12/1 boyles ...looks worth a play to me 2pts e.w black baccara 12/1 Superb tipping with the 1st and 3rd home there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
south_eastern_ram Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Flat Racing; Monday 19th March Tricky race this 3.50, hard to predict who's gunna set the pace and i think whoever does may win it. I didnt think Casual Mover was value at 11/4 last night so definitely dont at 11/8. I ended up having a couple of tiny bets on Managua and Clara Zetkin at massive prices just cos a lot of these look off too higher marks and the two outsiders could be well handicapped if ready. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuSimmy Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Flat Racing; Monday 19th March 17:20 Kempton The Absent Mare showed some great progression on the all weather in 2011. This filly had 9 runs on the surface last year over distances ranging from 9-17 furlongs and managed to rack up two wins and four places from those efforts with a close 4th placed finish in there as well. She finished 2nd a total four times, and ended the year with a sequence of 2211. That included a 2nd placed effort here over 11 furlongs off a mark of 46 before a 2nd placed finish at Wolverhampton over 12 furlongs off a mark of 46 again. She was then stepped up in trip for the first time over 2m1f at Wolverhampton where she ran out a winner by just under 2 lengths off a mark of 49. 12 days later she won over today's course and distance off a mark of 53. She was very impressive that day, winning her race by 4 lengths. She certainly relished the step up in trip and on her reappearance this year at Lingfield last month she ran another creditable race off a mark 9lbs higher by finishing 2nd over 2 miles off a mark of 62. Raised 1lb for today's race but I think she will certainly strip fitter for the race today and over a course and distance she has previously won at then it would be stupid to rule her out. The Absent Mare to win @ 7/2 (Skybet) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Flat Racing; Monday 19th March 4.50 kemp ....another ultra competitive race piscean 87 greensward 84+ chilli green 83 dozy joe 83 for me ......i instantly spotted greensward ..who looks like he has been layed out for this .....ran a 84 lto (first race ) and has run really well here before and can be expected to improve on that ,nice draw today and has the class and speed to win this ,13/2 generally looks decent but competitive race so just 1pt e.w picked the wrong one ....top rated won 13/2 ...bummer :eyes(1st and 3rd rated finished 1st and 3rd) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Flat Racing; Monday 19th March 5.50 kemp very speculative bet here bold diva 40/1 stan james . 1pt e.w has run some cracking times here at kempton in the past (83) and ran a very good 79 first time up last season .a reproduction of that would see him go close but obviuosly very speculative as only small chance of it happening Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Flat Racing; Monday 19th March 5.50 kemp very speculative bet here bold diva 40/1 stan james . 1pt e.w has run some cracking times here at kempton in the past (83) and ran a very good 79 first time up last season .a reproduction of that would see him go close but obviuosly very speculative as only small chance of it happening backed into 12/1 !!! before the off but couldnt do the business ....shame Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertob Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Flat Racing; Monday 19th March 17.20 Kempton: Agree with Lars about Dalhaan. The horse has a really good chance in my mind as he's down to his last winning mark when he won over course and distance in December 2010. No win since then but I thought he ran well in the Bumper last month here at Kempton and his good form was confirmed by a second place in a Handicap hurdle after that. Ian Mongan is back in the saddle who steered home Dalhaan at the mentioned win here at Kempton. Got yesterday evening @15/1 for Dalhaan what is way too generous in my book and I feel he can outrun his price. I'm also interested in Blackstone Vegas here as I feel @20/1 is not the right price for his chance in this race. It's eye-catching that Joe Fanning (rode recently a winner for this trainer) is booked for the ride as he's riding outstanding this winter. Blackstone Vegas has never won over 2 miles and didn't run well recently but he's now down to a mark of 56 of which he should be competitive. He was beaten by a nose at Wolverhampton (over 17f) and finished a good second the next time to Seaside Sizzler over 2 mile (albeit seven lengths beaten) of the current mark in April and May 2011. He stayed on very well in both races and that suggest that the distance is no problem. Therefore I think Blackstone Vegas is overpriced and I can see him finishing very well in an open race. Blackstone Vegas @ 20/1 William Hill + Dalhaan @ 12/1 Boylesports 3rd and 5th. I didn't have an Each-Way bet but just a single win bet on both horses so no return despite the fine 3rd place for Blackstone Vegas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Flat Racing; Monday 19th March black baccara wins 12/1 !!!!! returns about 32pts ....nice sherjawy was 3rd and black baccara ran an 86 !!!! (spot on ) Great call :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.