Filthy Logic Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Hi guys, Gonna try my own Overs/Unders system, as Ive been so inspired by the fine work some of you have been doing in that field. Its mostly so I can keep a record of it somewhere and keep me disciplined, but if anyone wants to follow and give me any constructive criticism where needed then I would appreciated it! Ive been working on the system for quite a while, and while there will be some fine tuning that will need to be done, I am happy to start testing it out now and seeing what you guys think. The method is quite extensive, taking averages of all games, then respective home and away records depending on the teams involved, then also form and somewhat more importantly i have found, the head to head record over the past 5 meetings. The system then churns out a probabililty percentage which predicts which way the game will go in terms of goals. Then i corrolate that against the available odds and eliminates the games which offer no value. i.e. Utd home to Blackburn this week comes up with a mammoth percentage of going over 2.5, but the odds of 1.36 make it pointless. Therefore, the odds of going under or over must be greater than 1.7, thats just how Ive decided to discipline it, and it still churns out very probable (according to the percentages resulted) outcomes. The percentage must be over 66%, ie more than 2/3rd chance of it coming in. Perhaps this will be increased as we see how successful it is or not. Anyway like I say, some fine tuning will most likely be needed, but Ive been fairly successful in my trials, so lets see how we go! And with that, I give you my first 5. I will display the game, probability percentage, and odds at William Hill. OVERS 1Barnsley - Leeds84.59%1.72 31st Dec 2QPR - Norwich74.84%1.90 2nd Jan 3Norwich - Fulham72.48%1.95 31st Dec 4Fulham - Arsenal66.93%1.90 2nd Jan UNDER 1Swansea - Tottenham66.58%1.90 31st Dec :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system :welcome to PuntersLounge. A nice a interesting system you have here. I'll keep an eye on this, since I'm in the same business. :D I'll take a closer look at your unders, since I was unable to find a good system for these. Since you take odds as low as 1.70 you'll need a good S/R. Also you should maybe say when the matches will play, cause I was like Fulham - Arsenal :eek...when does it play?? I've checked and it's on monday. Good luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted December 30, 2011 Author Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system Hi there, thanks for the comments, ive now edited the post above to show the match day. Apologies for that! Thanks for taking an interest, lets hope its successful! Do you think it would be worth only selecting games that are better than 2.0? Obviously the strike rate has more room to breathe as it were. We'll see how these first picks go. Ive been toying with the idea of getting the two best 80%+ games and putting them into a double acc as a separate experiment. Any thoughts on that at all? Thanks again:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system Hi there, thanks for the comments, ive now edited the post above to show the match day. Apologies for that! Thanks for taking an interest, lets hope its successful! Do you think it would be worth only selecting games that are better than 2.0? Obviously the strike rate has more room to breathe as it were. We'll see how these first picks go. Ive been toying with the idea of getting the two best 80%+ games and putting them into a double acc as a separate experiment. Any thoughts on that at all? Thanks again:ok Anything could work. You first need to see some results from your system to get a general S/R, after that you can leave it like that or change the odds criteria selections. Taking matches from 1.7 up to (maybe) 2.7 will make you media of (I believe using my stats) 1.80 - 1.90 and you'll need a S/R of 53% - 56%, not big, but must be constant. For doubles or so, you need a higher strike ratio. Maybe something like 2/3 => in a 80% strike ratio, but this would be the perfect solution for a Double system. Anyway you should try to do a back test if you don't need a lot of statistics and if you can, using the excel files available at http://football-data.co.uk/; or wait and see how your system goes, then you'll know what to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system Ok thanks for the pointers here, much appreciated. Its something i will definitely look into in the coming weeks, depending how we go. Anyway, first one has come in so far (Barnsley 4-1 Leeds) which is encouraging. :clap Back tonight with the rest of the games played today. Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system OVERS 1Barnsley - Leeds84.59%1.72 31st Dec WON 2QPR - Norwich74.84%1.90 2nd Jan 3Norwich - Fulham72.48%1.95 31st Dec LOST 4Fulham - Arsenal66.93%1.90 2nd Jan UNDER 1Swansea - Tottenham66.58%1.90 31st Dec WON :hope 2 out of the 3 that have been played up to this point, not too bad, particularly as the lost bet was by only the 1 goal. Will be happier of course if the QPR/Fulham games come in on Monday. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system OVERS 1Barnsley - Leeds84.59%1.72 31st Dec 4-1 WON 2QPR - Norwich74.84%1.90 2nd Jan 1-2 WON 3Norwich - Fulham72.48%1.95 31st Dec 1-1 LOST 4Fulham - Arsenal66.93%1.90 2nd Jan 2-1 WON UNDER 1Swansea - Tottenham66.58%1.90 31st Dec 1-1 WON :hope Thank god for Johann Djourou, that game was going nowhere until that point. So 4 of 5, very happy indeed for the first try. Number of selections: 5 Won: 4 Lost: 1 Strike Rate: 80% As I'm only doing this as a test for now I wont be noting down yields and profits, yet! Anyone have thoughts on whats a good sample range before committing to a staking plan? Anyway, good start. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 5, 2012 Author Share Posted January 5, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system Ok thankfully Serie A and Primera Liga are back in action this weekend, but nothing in Spain unfortunately, mainly because the matches that come close involve a couple newly promoted teams so the data is slightly skewed and im not willing to take the chance. Barca and Real are obvious no-no's (Real is 1.22 to go over! You think!???) But serie A has shown 2 very nice overs, 1 under which JUST misses out. Anyway here we are.... Over 2.5 games No. Pair Probability Odds 1 Inter - Parma 85.57% 1.90 2 Cagliari - Genoa 68.08% 2.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sanyok Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system on what website do you take the prabability %? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system on what website do you take the prabability %? Its my own system which ive been creating and refining for the past month or 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system Not sure why, perhaps the program had trouble extracting the odds for the Levante Mallorca game but now it has been highlighted as an 'over' so its another one to add to the picks above. Playing today at 5pm. Top picks for Over 2.5 games No.PairProbabilityOdds3 Levante - Mallorca 72.47% 2.15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system Not sure why, perhaps the program had trouble extracting the odds for the Levante Mallorca game but now it has been highlighted as an 'over' so its another one to add to the picks above. Playing today at 5pm. Top picks for Over 2.5 games No.PairProbabilityOdds3 Levante - Mallorca 72.47% 2.15 Absolutely disgusted in myself for checking the system this morning, should have just left it alone! :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system Ok thankfully Serie A and Primera Liga are back in action this weekend, but nothing in Spain unfortunately, mainly because the matches that come close involve a couple newly promoted teams so the data is slightly skewed and im not willing to take the chance. Barca and Real are obvious no-no's (Real is 1.22 to go over! You think!???) But serie A has shown 2 very nice overs, 1 under which JUST misses out. Anyway here we are.... Over 2.5 games No. Pair Probability Odds 1 Inter - Parma 85.57% 1.90 WON 2 Cagliari - Genoa 68.08% 2.5 WON Booming! 5-0 and a 3-0 gets 2 wins at extremely nice odds. If only I hadn't re-checked the system yesterday I would have had a clean sweep. Anyway, very happy and we move on to the next round of games. :nana Number of selections: 8 Won: 6 Lost: 2 Strike Rate: 75% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system Nice going so far long may in continue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system Cheers staffy. Lets hope so! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potdw Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system Good going, will keep an eye on this thread. Good luck for the next round Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system Thanks potdw, feeling more and happy with the system. Particularly glad that the results on here are so far lining up with the types of results ive been getting in testing for the last month or so. Fingers crossed it carries on. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system Ok we have one for Wednesday night, although I'm not as confident on it (Jagielka out for Everton is a big blow to the defence), the system is what it is so there you go. Top picks for Under 2.5 games No.PairProbabilityOdds 1Tottenham - Everton67.09%1.8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system No.PairProbabilityOdds 1Tottenham - Everton67.09%1.8 2-0 Spurs BET WON Number of selections: 9 Won: 7 Lost: 2 Strike Rate: 77.77% Great night for both systems :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cv1000 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system I may have to start copying your selections ;) Is your system in a spreadsheet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system I may have to start copying your selections ;) Is your system in a spreadsheet? Hi cv1000, no its all held in an automated online database at the moment mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system A fair few for this weekend, thanks to a few extra leagues coming back from winter break. Plus I've added the scottish league. Either way, the strike rate should change quite significantly! (hopefully for the better :hope) Interestingly only 1 premier league game, and its a very interesting 'under' pick involving Man City??? Now that would be some result @ 2.25 :loon, though the percenntage does suggest it will be a tough call. (Swansea - Arsenal just misses out by a matter of 0.31% btw) Top picks for Over 2.5 games No.PairProbabilityOdds1Sp Gijon - Malaga75.5%2.152Marseille - Lille73%2.23Ath Bilbao - Levante70.27%24Dunfermline - Hibernian69.24%1.955St Etienne - Sochaux68.4%2.156Sevilla - Espanol67.26%2.057Milan - Inter66.73%2.1 Top picks for Under 2.5 games No.PairProbabilityOdds1Wigan - Man City66.12%2.25 :hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris-UK Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system Hiya m8, i was just wondering what you use to work out your Probability % or what games will be over or under? stats from the last couple of years ect keep up good work btw:ok btw i know you said its online thing but i mean what stats have been entered to find this Probability % :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Hiya m8, i was just wondering what you use to work out your Probability % or what games will be over or under? stats from the last couple of years ect keep up good work btw:ok btw i know you said its online thing but i mean what stats have been entered to find this Probability % :D The OP has the info you need mate ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris-UK Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system The OP has the info you need mate ;) ermmmm OP? im trying to find a head to head site so gives me over 1.5 and over 2.5 stats..like what percatage of games have been over 1.5 and over 2.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system ermmmm OP? im trying to find a head to head site so gives me over 1.5 and over 2.5 stats..like what percatage of games have been over 1.5 and over 2.5 Oh right, i'd go to football-data.co.uk then or perhaps soccerway.com? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris-UK Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system Oh right' date=' i'd go to football-data.co.uk then or perhaps soccerway.com?[/quote'] i know both sites and not what im looking for..i need a "head to head" option like on soccerbase when you can select 2 teams which are against each other and show over, wins ect... but with most of the leagues... thanks anyway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris-UK Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system A fair few for this weekend, thanks to a few extra leagues coming back from winter break. Plus I've added the scottish league. Either way, the strike rate should change quite significantly! (hopefully for the better :hope) Interestingly only 1 premier league game, and its a very interesting 'under' pick involving Man City??? Now that would be some result @ 2.25 :loon, though the percenntage does suggest it will be a tough call. (Swansea - Arsenal just misses out by a matter of 0.31% btw) Top picks for Over 2.5 games No.PairProbabilityOdds1Sp Gijon - Malaga75.5%2.152Marseille - Lille73%2.23Ath Bilbao - Levante70.27%24Dunfermline - Hibernian69.24%1.955St Etienne - Sochaux68.4%2.156Sevilla - Espanol67.26%2.057Milan - Inter66.73%2.1 Top picks for Under 2.5 games No.PairProbabilityOdds1Wigan - Man City66.12%2.25 :hope:hope:hope are these the only ones you have for this weekend m8? just thought mite be more because of championship, league 1 and 2 and seria a:beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 14, 2012 Author Share Posted January 14, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system are these the only ones you have for this weekend m8? just thought mite be more because of championship' date=' league 1 and 2 and seria a:beer[/quote'] Morning mate, actually yes there is! :p I havent included them in my selections above, mostly because this has only just shown up literally half an hour ago (not sure why, perhaps the data feed couldn't locate the game, problem with the script or something like that), and partly because there is a large enough sample above to test the system and i want to keep disciplined and not mess people about. But if you want 2 more, Catania v Roma has shown up at 76.4% to go over @ odds of 2.05 (playing today) and Swansea v Arsenal has now appeared with 68.2% to go under @ 1.72 (tomorrow). This one only just makes the grade of course so use it at your discretion! All the best, and good luck! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 14, 2012 Author Share Posted January 14, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system are these the only ones you have for this weekend m8? just thought mite be more because of championship' date=' league 1 and 2 and seria a:beer[/quote'] Also Chris, forgot to say, the system doesnt look at league 1 or 2 at the moment as ive never done any backtesting on it. Might do that at some point when i have time, but thats why they're not showing up right now. Cheers :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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