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Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system


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Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system

Also Chris' date=' forgot to say, the system doesnt look at league 1 or 2 at the moment as ive never done any backtesting on it. Might do that at some point when i have time, but thats why they're not showing up right now. Cheers :)[/quote'] ok m8..goodluck with your selections:ok
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Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system

Top picks for Over 2.5 games
No.PairProbabilityOddsResult
1Sp Gijon - Malaga75.5%2.152-1
2Marseille - Lille73%2.22-0
3Ath Bilbao - Levante70.27%23-0
4Dunfermline - Hibernian69.24%1.952-3
5St Etienne - Sochaux68.4%2.151-0
6Sevilla - Espanol67.26%2.050-0
7Milan - Inter66.73%2.10-1
Top picks for Under 2.5 games
No.PairProbabilityOdds
1Wigan - Man City66.12%2.25
:hope:hope:hope
- Well, up on the day profit-wise but not a good day for the strike rate. Gijon match as well was a rollercoaster, somehow it came through. I've seen on a couple other 'goals' threads that others have had a poor couple of days, so hopefully its just a blip. - An encouraging sign if i was to take one, is that there does seem to be a pattern between the games with high percentage coming in and those with the lower amounts not, so im happy that the system is showing signs of accuracy. - I'm already thinking about changing the threshold slightly, perhaps going up to the 70% mark to elminate some of these costly games. I think i might be being too greedy with these lower percentages, but I would expect the amount of picks to go down by half, perhaps more. Any thoughts are welcome :ok
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Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system Top picks for Over 2.5 games

No.PairProbabilityOddsResult
1Sp Gijon - Malaga75.5%2.152-1
2Marseille - Lille73%2.22-0
3Ath Bilbao - Levante70.27%23-0
4Dunfermline - Hibernian69.24%1.952-3
5St Etienne - Sochaux68.4%2.151-0
6Sevilla - Espanol67.26%2.050-0
7Milan - Inter66.73%2.10-1
Top picks for Under 2.5 games
No.PairProbabilityOddsResult
1Wigan - Man City66.12%2.250-1
I'll take that for a result. :p If my maths is right, 8 games at level stakes of 10pts would return a profit of 13.50pts, which is 14.4% ROI for the weekend. I think thats correct. Not outstanding, but like I said it might be time to change the thresholds of what qualifies a pick.
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Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system Hi Mate, At ten points level stakes I would make it a return of 83.5 points for 80 points staked and therefore a yield of 4.375%. Am pretty sure that is right. Good thread and hope to see you continue with it. Cheers S

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Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system

Hi Mate, At ten points level stakes I would make it a return of 83.5 points for 80 points staked and therefore a yield of 4.375%. Am pretty sure that is right. Good thread and hope to see you continue with it. Cheers S
Yep, you're right. My mistake. I added 10pts from god knows where. Maths was never my strong point. :( Poor weekend. Apologies to anyone who followed those picks, but am confident of a better show this coming weekend. Forgive me! :notworthy
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Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system

Yep, you're right. My mistake. I added 10pts from god knows where. Maths was never my strong point. :( Poor weekend. Apologies to anyone who followed those picks, but am confident of a better show this coming weekend. Forgive me! :notworthy
No need to apologise sir , a nice wee double on GIJON / BILBAO saw me end the weekend on a happy note :nana
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Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system

i know both sites and not what im looking for..i need a "head to head" option like on soccerbase when you can select 2 teams which are against each other and show over, wins ect... but with most of the leagues... thanks anyway
http://www.soccerstats.com has everything you claim to be looking for and enough of leagues to make your head spin. Ive spent countless hours on it and its 1st class info.:ok
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Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system

http://www.soccerstats.com has everything you claim to be looking for and enough of leagues to make your head spin. Ive spent countless hours on it and its 1st class info.:ok
thanks for post m8..but i already know that site also..tells you over and unders through the whole league % in genral but not on head to head for example: Arsenal V Man united - head to head - over 1.5 % over 2.5 % i think they have over 2.5 but really looking for over 1.5 maybe there is away to do it on calculator or something lol when entering over 2.5 info..im crap with maths lol:ok
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Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system Top picks for Over 2.5 games

No.PairProbabilityOddsDate
1Inter - Lazio79.4%2.0522/01
2Kaiserslauter - Werder Bremen78.91%1.721/01
3Schalke 04 - Stuttgart76.85%1.721/01
Top picks for Under 2.5 games
No.PairProbabilityOddsDate
1Levante - Zaragoza72.25%1.722/01
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Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system

One more....another bundesliga game. The germans better be ready to fire on all cylinders after the winter break! Top picks for Over 2.5 games
No.PairProbabilityOddsDate
4Mgladbach - Bayern Munich71.25%1.7220/01
Nice start to the weekend mate :clap
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Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system

Top picks for Over 2.5 games
No.PairProbabilityOddsDate
1Inter - Lazio79.4%2.0522/01
2Kaiserslauter - Werder Bremen78.91%1.721/01
3Schalke 04 - Stuttgart76.85%1.721/01
Top picks for Under 2.5 games
No.PairProbabilityOddsDate
1Levante - Zaragoza72.25%1.722/01
German double let me down :eyes but INTER just went Over :ok for a nice single and LEVANTE's 0-0 draw means i'm waiting for REAL MADRID to win for a treble with PORTO [3-1] Cheers again mate :clap
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Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system

German double let me down :eyes but INTER just went Over :ok for a nice single and LEVANTE's 0-0 draw means i'm waiting for REAL MADRID to win for a treble with PORTO [3-1] Cheers again mate :clap
Nicely done mate! Happy to have been of some help :cheers Yeah Kaiserslautern did me over too, had a nice stake on that but luckily the rest have covered and more. Have been tinkering with a small change and putting more emphasis on the home team's formula, it may have eliminated the kaiserslautern game, but interestingly it would have added Leverkusen to go over, and both bologna and siena games to go under which all came in. I did put a small stake on all 3 so im thinking about making it a proper change for next week. Anyway, for now we are happy! :nana Top picks for Over 2.5 games
No. Pair Probability Odds DateResult
1 Inter - Lazio 79.4% 2.05 22/012-1
2 Kaiserslauter - Werder Bremen 78.91% 1.7 21/010-0
3 Schalke 04 - Stuttgart 76.85% 1.7 21/01 3-1
Top picks for Under 2.5 games
No. Pair Probability Odds Date
Result
1 Levante - Zaragoza 72.25% 1.7 22/010-0
4 x 10pts staked = 24.5pts/61.25% profit :loon
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Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system [h=4]Top picks for Over 2.5 games[/h][TABLE]

[TR] [TH=align: left]No.[/TH] [TH=width: 200px, align: left]Pair[/TH] [TH=width: 100px, align: left]Probability[/TH] [TH=width: 50px, align: left]Odds[/TH] [TH=width: 75px, align: left]Date[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Werder Bremen - Leverkusen[/TD] [TD]91.4%[/TD] [TD]1.7 [/TD] [TD]28/01[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Palermo - Novara[/TD] [TD]82.58%[/TD] [TD]1.95[/TD] [TD]29/01[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]Stuttgart - Mgladbach[/TD] [TD]76.91%[/TD] [TD]1.90[/TD] [TD]29/01[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]Lyon - Dijon[/TD] [TD]73.57%[/TD] [TD]1.7 [/TD] [TD]28/01[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Evian Thonon - Bordeaux[/TD] [TD]72.88%[/TD] [TD]2.25[/TD] [TD]29/01[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [h=4]Top picks for Under 2.5 games[/h][TABLE] [TR] [TH=align: left]No.[/TH] [TH=width: 200px, align: left]Pair[/TH] [TH=width: 100px, align: left]Probability[/TH] [TH=width: 50px, align: left]Odds[/TH] [TH=width: 75px, align: left]Date[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Santander - Valencia[/TD] [TD]68.69%[/TD] [TD]1.7 [/TD] [TD]29/01[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system

Top picks for Over 2.5 games [TABLE] [TR] [TH=align: left]No.[/TH] [TH=align: left]Pair[/TH] [TH=align: left]Probability[/TH] [TH=align: left]Odds [/TH] [TH=align: left]Date [/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Werder Bremen - Leverkusen[/TD] [TD]91.4%[/TD] [TD]1.7[/TD] [TD]28/01 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Palermo - Novara[/TD] [TD]82.58%[/TD] [TD]1.95[/TD] [TD]29/01[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]Stuttgart - Mgladbach[/TD] [TD]76.91%[/TD] [TD]1.90[/TD] [TD]29/01[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]Lyon - Dijon[/TD] [TD]73.57%[/TD] [TD]1.7[/TD] [TD]28/01[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Evian Thonon - Bordeaux[/TD] [TD]72.88%[/TD] [TD]2.25[/TD] [TD]29/01[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Top picks for Under 2.5 games [TABLE] [TR] [TH=align: left]No.[/TH] [TH=align: left]Pair[/TH] [TH=align: left]Probability[/TH] [TH=align: left]Odds[/TH] [TH=align: left]Date[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Santander - Valencia[/TD] [TD]68.69%[/TD] [TD]1.7[/TD] [TD]29/01[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
Cant add another column for some reason, but 2 out of 6 is infuriating to say the least. Anyway, here's where we are up to this point if playing level 10pt stakes from the start of this thread. Starting bank 100 Current bank 148.60 Total staked 280 Number of bets 28 Winning bets 17 Losing bets 11 Strike rate 60.7% Yield 17.4% Profit 48.6
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Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system [h=4]Top picks for Over 2.5 games[/h][TABLE]

[TR] [TH=width: 50px, align: left]No. [/TH] [TH=width: 200px, align: left]Pair[/TH] [TH=width: 100px, align: left]Probability[/TH] [TH=width: 50px, align: left]Odds[/TH] [TH=width: 75px, align: left]Date[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Inter - Palermo[/TD] [TD]80.46%[/TD] [TD]1.7 [/TD] [TD]01/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Udinese - Lecce[/TD] [TD]78.36%[/TD] [TD]1.66 [/TD] [TD]01/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]Blackburn - Newcastle[/TD] [TD]67.08%[/TD] [TD]1.7 [/TD] [TD]01/02 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [h=4]Top picks for Under 2.5 games[/h][TABLE] [TR] [TH=width: 50px, align: left]No.[/TH] [TH=width: 200px, align: left]Pair[/TH] [TH=width: 100px, align: left]Probability[/TH] [TH=width: 50px, align: left]Odds[/TH] [TH=width: 75px, align: left]Date[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Lazio - Milan[/TD] [TD]80.08%[/TD] [TD]1.7 [/TD] [TD]01/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [/TABLE] Udinese is 1.66 on WH, but 1.8 on bet365 so I will include it here as thats the bookie I personally use for my bets.
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Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system

Top picks for Over 2.5 games [TABLE] [TR] [TH=align: left]No.[/TH] [TH=align: left]Pair[/TH] [TH=align: left]Probability[/TH] [TH=align: left]Odds[/TH] [TH=align: left]Date[/TH] [TH=align: left]Result[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Inter - Palermo[/TD] [TD]80.46%[/TD] [TD]1.7[/TD] [TD]01/02[/TD] [TD]4-4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Udinese - Lecce[/TD] [TD]78.36%[/TD] [TD]1.66[/TD] [TD]01/02[/TD] [TD]2-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]Blackburn - Newcastle[/TD] [TD]67.08%[/TD] [TD]1.7[/TD] [TD]01/02[/TD] [TD]0-2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Top picks for Under 2.5 games [TABLE] [TR] [TH=align: left]No.[/TH] [TH=align: left]Pair[/TH] [TH=align: left]Probability[/TH] [TH=align: left]Odds[/TH] [TH=align: left]Date[/TH] [TH=align: left]Result[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Lazio - Milan[/TD] [TD]80.08%[/TD] [TD]1.7[/TD] [TD]01/02[/TD] [TD]2-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [/TABLE] Udinese is 1.66 on WH, but 1.8 on bet365 so I will include it here as thats the bookie I personally use for my bets.
Starting bank 100 Current bank 160.20 Total staked 320 Number of bets 32 Winning bets 20 Losing bets 12 Strike rate 62.5% Yield 18.8% Profit 60.20
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Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system

Hello k0109671, where are these probabilities from? Nice scheme mate! Regards, Hugo
Take a look in the opening post bud :ok So on to this weekends games - twice as many unders as overs? Not sure if i should be worried....:)Top picks for Over 2.5 games [TABLE] [TR] [TH=align: left]No.[/TH] [TH=align: left]Pair[/TH] [TH=align: left]Probability[/TH] [TH=align: left]Odds[/TH] [TH=align: left]Date[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Leverkusen - Stuttgart[/TD] [TD]83.39%[/TD] [TD]1.72[/TD] [TD]04/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Fiorentina - Udinese[/TD] [TD]72.92%[/TD] [TD]2.20 [/TD] [TD]05/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]Genoa - Lazio[/TD] [TD]72.8%[/TD] [TD]2.00[/TD] [TD]05/02[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Top picks for Under 2.5 games [TABLE] [TR] [TH=align: left]No.[/TH] [TH=align: left]Pair[/TH] [TH=align: left]Probability[/TH] [TH=align: left]Odds[/TH] [TH=align: left]Date[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Montpellier - Brest[/TD] [TD]87.53%[/TD] [TD]1.70[/TD] [TD]04/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Middlesbrough - C Palace[/TD] [TD]78.28%[/TD] [TD]1.70[/TD] [TD]04/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]Wigan - Everton[/TD] [TD]77.19%[/TD] [TD]1.72[/TD] [TD]04/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]Sochaux - Lille[/TD] [TD]76.59%[/TD] [TD]1.70[/TD] [TD]05/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]West Ham - Millwall[/TD] [TD]70.1%[/TD] [TD]1.95[/TD] [TD]04/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]Hoffenheim - Augsburg[/TD] [TD]68.54%[/TD] [TD]1.90[/TD] [TD]04/02[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Odds from bet365
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Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system Good job, looks very promising. I'm a fan of stats based methods, if right they tend to be very solid. This week however bare in mind that some nasty weather has been spreading across europe and a frozen pitch can give strange results. Tread carefully.

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Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system

Take a look in the opening post bud :ok So on to this weekends games - twice as many unders as overs? Not sure if i should be worried....:)Top picks for Over 2.5 games [TABLE] [TR] [TH=align: left]No.[/TH] [TH=align: left]Pair[/TH] [TH=align: left]Probability[/TH] [TH=align: left]Odds[/TH] [TH=align: left]Date[/TH] [TH=align: left]Result[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Leverkusen - Stuttgart[/TD] [TD]83.39%[/TD] [TD]1.72[/TD] [TD]04/02[/TD] [TD]2-2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Fiorentina - Udinese[/TD] [TD]72.92%[/TD] [TD]2.20[/TD] [TD]05/02[/TD] [TD]3-2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]Genoa - Lazio[/TD] [TD]72.8%[/TD] [TD]2.00[/TD] [TD]05/02[/TD] [TD]3-2[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Top picks for Under 2.5 games [TABLE] [TR] [TH=align: left]No.[/TH] [TH=align: left]Pair[/TH] [TH=align: left]Probability[/TH] [TH=align: left]Odds[/TH] [TH=align: left]Date[/TH] [TH=align: left]Result[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Montpellier - Brest[/TD] [TD]87.53%[/TD] [TD]1.70[/TD] [TD]04/02[/TD] [TD]1-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Middlesbrough - C Palace[/TD] [TD]78.28%[/TD] [TD]1.70[/TD] [TD]04/02[/TD] [TD]0-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]Wigan - Everton[/TD] [TD]77.19%[/TD] [TD]1.72[/TD] [TD]04/02[/TD] [TD]1-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]West Ham - Millwall[/TD] [TD]70.1%[/TD] [TD]1.95[/TD] [TD]04/02[/TD] [TD]2-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]Hoffenheim - Augsburg[/TD] [TD]68.54%[/TD] [TD]1.90[/TD] [TD]04/02[/TD] [TD]2-2[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Odds from bet365
Ive removed the postponed Sochaux match. Anything under 70% will now definitely not make the cut, i know i mentioned it before as a suggestion but now i will make it a rule. The current perfomance would be even better if i had done that from the start. (Also, did anyone see West Ham's 2nd goal?? How was that not a foul!) Starting bank 100 Current bank 190.60 Total staked 400 Number of bets 40 Winning bets 26 Losing bets 14 Strike rate 65% Yield 22.7% Profit 90.6
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