NFL Week 13 Picks

[PinPointPrecision]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Vs. Carolina Panthers Selection: Carolina Panthers 2.7 @ Boylesports Stake: 10/10 I think there is good value on Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers (3-8) beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7) when they meet at Raymond James Stadium. ESPN's 'Intel Report', which is based on thousands of simulations based on historical data, is making Carolina 51% favorites but they can be backed at odds of 2.7 which is as if they had an implied probability of 37.04% to win. The Panthers 3-8 record is a bit misleading this year as they have lost a lot of close games. In QB Cam Newton they have a real star of the future who is backed by a solid run game (RB DeAngelo Williams, RB Jonathan Stewart) and the ability to run the ball himself! Newton has also has been finding success in the passing game with WR Steve Smith also having a very good season. Offensively the Panthers can really put on the numbers and I don't see this trend changing this weekend. Tampa Bay are on a 5 game losing skid and I think they will be outgunned by Carolina's plethora of offensive weapons. Tampa Bay have one of the worst defenses in the leagues (28th in passing yards allowed per game and 30th in rushing yards). This makes me believe that this game will be a real shootout with plenty of points being put on the board. Personally I think it will be Carolina putting more points on the board and will happily back them at odds of 2.7, good luck :hope

[PinPointPrecision]

Re: NFL Week 13 Picks Minnesota Vikings Vs. Denver Broncos Selection: Under 36.5 Points @ 2.11 Pinnacle Stake: 10/10 I don't see many points being scored when the Minnesota Vikings (2-9) play host to Denver Broncos (6-5) at Mall of America Field. The Broncos have been playing a style of high school American Football involving a very simple running game behind QB Tim Tebow. In a brand of football that is torture to the eyes the Broncos have managed to be effective time managers who don't turn the ball over very often and rely on a solid defense. The last 3 Denver games have ended with 30 points or less and I expect much of the same against Minnesota. Rookie QB Christian Ponder has looked decent this season for the Vikes but he may be missing Minnesota's main attacking threat in RB Adrian Peterson. With this being said its hard to see where the points are coming from on other side of the ball so I will be backing unders in this one, good luck :hope

[PinPointPrecision]

Re: NFL Week 13 Picks Washington Redskins Vs. New York Jets Selection: Under 36.5 Points @ 2.31 Pinnacle Stake: 10/10 I really don't understand why there is such good value for a low scoring game when the Washington Redskins play hosts against the New York Jets at FedEx Field. Both teams have shut down pass defenses and have been offensively woeful this season. The Redskins don't have any standout offensive weapons while the Jets QB Mark Sanchez has struggled against teams that pass rush well. Washington have won of the best LB's in the NFL with Brian Orakpo looking to put Sanchez under a lot of pressure. With neither team looking good moving the ball I see this being a tense and tactical affair with turnovers being key. With that being said, I think that unders offers excellent value here and I will be backing it at 2.31, good luck :hope

[AGurv]

Re: NFL Week 13 Picks NFL 2011-2012 Overall 23W-16L-1P +4.47 units (58.97%) Philadelphia -3 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Everyone says Seattle is a great home team but Seattle is 2-3 at home, while Philly is 3-2 on the road. I think if they run the ball with McCoy and let Young just manage the game. Eagles should easily win it.

[WeakestLink]

Re: NFL Week 13 Picks Philadelphia -3AH , 1.99 pinnacle , 10units ( Seattle Seahawks : Philadelphia Eagles ) : yards per game 294:420 ; yards per game allowed 341:345 ; points per game 17:23 ; points per game allowed 21:23. Passing leaders ( SEA : PHI ) : TDs 9:3 , intercepted passes 12:5. Rushing leaders ( SEA : PHI ) : TDs 6:11. Receiving leaders ( SEA : PHI ) : TDs 4:6. Injured players for SEA : Sidney Rice WR , Byron Maxwell CB ( out ) , David Hawthorne LB , Richard Sherman CB ( both questionable ) Injured players for PHI : King Dunlap T , Moise Fokou LB , Jeremy Maclin WR , Michael Vick QB , Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB ( all out ) , Nnamdi Asomugha CB , LeSean McCoy RB ( both questionable ). I have to disagree with you people backing Seattle here. I did not believe Philadelphia can play without Vick but the game in New York proved to me they can. New England is for years now the best team in NFL in late November and through December so big defeat against them was not a surprise to me. Philadelphia have more quality than Seattle and despite their season so far I don't see them finishing under .500 and this game is one of the easiest thet'll have for the remainder of the season.

[jpffc]

Re: NFL Week 13 Picks Philadelphia Eagles @1.60 7/10 b365:hope

[jpffc]

Re: NFL Week 13 Picks

Philadelphia Eagles @1.60 7/10 b365:hope

:sad

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week 13 Picks What an absolute melt down going on in Philli... ...seriously, how is a team going when Vince Young is their most 'stable' personality! :unsure I agree with the Wash/Jets game PPP, taken under 38.5 which I think is pretty generous... ...speaking of generous, I got under 39, but still plenty of healthy 37.5's, even 38's out there for Houston v. Atlanta...with 2 top 10 D's, a third string QB and likely no Turner!! :eek What are people expecting from that game exactly... :\ The only other game I'm interested in [besides having already taken Jax v. SD under 40] is the Caro/TB game, in which I'll be looking pretty closely at the total yards market again. Panters do love playing bad teams. :ok Good luck guys. :cheers

[Delmarva]

Re: NFL Week 13 Picks NFL 2011 WEEK 13 Sys1 notes 1.02 Tennessee @ Buffalo > RD is 91-74 past years, 1-2 ytd, > favors Tennessee RD getting 3.0 or less points is 48-34 covering the spread 1.04 Carolina @ TampaBay > RD is 81-53 past years, 1-1 ytd > favors Carolina 1.16 Indianapolis @ New England RD is 6-0 vs the spread when getting 17.5 or more points 1.24 StLouis @ SanFrancisco RD is 0-6 vs the spread when getting 10.0-14.5 points 1.25 Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh RD getting 6.5 pts is 12-5 vs the spread 1.27 Baltimore @ Cleveland … RD is 95-129 past years, 2-4 ytd > favors Cleveland 1.29 Green Bay @ NYGiants RF giving 6.0 to 7.0 points is 13-29 vs the spread, 1-8 when giving 6.0 points 1.47 NYJets @ Washington RF giving 3.0 or fewer points is 30-47 vs the spread Splitter potential scenarios: 1pm Tennessee and 1pm Oakland [5-8-1], same time, no value 1pm Indianapolis and 8pm Detroit [9-17-9] > Detroit opposite Indy result 1pm NYJets and 4pm Dallas [9-21-8] > Dallas opposite NYJets result Sys2 notes 2.12 Baltimore @ Cleveland > HD is 33-20 past, 1-1 ytd > favors Cleveland 2. 04 Atlanta @ Houston > HF is 11-19 past years, 0-0 ytd > favors Atlanta Sys3 notes SYS3 plays 0 ~ none 1 ~ Tennessee, Cincinnati, Cleveland, NYJets, Carolina, Indianapolis 2 ~ none Added non Sys3 play: SanFrancisco

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Week 13 Picks Carolina -2.5 @ 2.31 centrebet Carolina averages 264 passing yards and 135 rushing yards per game, as they have scored 35 and 27 points in their last two road games. Tampa Bay has imploded as a combination of turnovers and penalties have hit the team hard in their games, and they have allowed between 23 and 37 points in their last 5 games. Expect Newton to do well on this defence that allows 255 passing yards and 140 rushing yards per game, and have too many injuries there. Carolina allows 233 passing yards and 138 rushing yards per game, and have given up 24 points or less in 3 of their last 5 games. Their defence is not much better than what TB has, but the difference is on offence, where TB average 239 passing yards and 102 rushing yards per game, and have scored 18 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Carolina have won 6 of their last 8 trips to TB, while the road team has won 8 of the last 12 meetings. Chicago -9.5 @ 2.27 centrebet Chicago averages 217 passing yards and 122 rushing yards per game, as they start with a rookie QB (Hanie) so they will focuse on running the ball. Like RB Forte to do well here as Kansas allows 225 passing yards and 134 rushing yards per game. Chicago have scored 30+ points in 3 of their last 4 games, while they have done also scored 30+ in 5 of their 6 home games, so with them fighting for a wild card spot, their offence should be scoring quite a bit here. Kansas averages 183 passing yards and 121 rusing yards per game, as their rookie QB Palko has struggled in his two starts to date. Chicago allows 271 passing yards and 99 rushing yards per game, and like their aggressive defence to put plenty of pressure on him. Kansas has scored 10 points or less in their last 4 games, while Chicago has allowed 20 points or less in 4 of their last 6 home games. Bears look good here Houston -2.5 @ 2.21 centrebet Houston are down to their 3rd string QB but this will not change the way they play, as they will run the ball with Foster and Tate. They average 228 passing yards and 152 rushing yards per game, and have scored between 24 and 37 points in 4 of their last 5 games, as well as 24 and 30 points in their last two home games. Atlanta allows 246 passing yards and 84 rushing yards per game, and have given up 17 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games, so scoring on them will not be easy, but possible. Atlanta averages 248 passing yards and 118 rusing yards per game, but with RB Turner likely to be out, then QB Ryan will need to get their offence moving. They have scored 24 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games, and meet a very good Houston defence that allows just 176 passing yards and 93 rushing yards per game, and have allowed 14 points or less in their last 5 games, as well as in 4 of their last 5 home games. Houston's pass rush had 7 sacks last week, and Atlanta has given up 22 sacks this year, so like this defence to give their offence short fields to work with New England -23.5 @ 2.51 centrebet Tempted to take another full TD here, as NE should smash the Colts. They average 319 passing yards and 110 rushing yards per game, while Indy allows 239 passing yards and 151 rushing yards per game. The Patriots have scored 30+ points in 8 of their 11 games including their last 3 games, and expect them to do so again here, as Indy has allowed 27+ points in 8 of their 11 games. On defence, while the Patriots allow 308 passing yards and 102 rushing yards per game, the Colts do not have the QB to take advantage of this, as they average 181 passing yards and 99 rushing yards per game. Indy has scored 20 points or less in 10 of their 11 games, while NE have allowed 21 points or less in their last 3 games as well as in 4 of their last 5 home games, but doubt that the Colts get anywhere near that. New Orleans beat Indy 62-7 earlier this year, and the NE offence is just as good if not even better. Green Bay -9.5 @ 2.46 centrebet Another game where i'm tempted to take another full TD, as this Green Bay team seeks to go undefeated. They average 304 passing yards and 97 rushing yards per game, and have scord 27+ points in 9 of their 11 games, as well as in 5 of their 6 road games. The Giants allow 251 passing yards and 131 rushing yards per game, as they were easily beaten by a similar offence last week, as New Orleans beat them 49-24. On defence, though GB allows 288 passing yards and 106 rushing yards, this is mainly due to teams having to pass the ball more, especially in the second half, as they play catch up. NY averages 292 passing yards and just 82 rushing yards per game, and with Bradshaw likely to be out, and the lack of a running game, then expect another player to drop in pass protection or blitz Manning. The Giants have scored 24 points or less in their last 5 games, while GB has allowed 23 points or less in 7 of their 11 games, as well as 4 of their 6 road games. With GB having an extra 4 days to prepare for this compard to NY, and playing much better than they are, like Rodgers to lead them to another win here Record: 40-47 (11.52)

[Dougal]

Re: NFL Week 13 Picks BenJarvus Green-Ellis over 65.5 yards rushing 5/6 @ Ladbrokes The Pats have been trying to balance out their offence a bit more in the past few games, they've averaged 33 carries in the last 3 games. Tom Brady has spoken about the need to get the running game functioning more effectively and who better to do it against than the Colts dismal run defense. BJGE has been a bit hit and miss recently, 20 carries got 81 against the Chiefs followed by 14 for 44 against Philly. The Panthers ran for over 200 yards against the Colts last week and they are giving up 150 ypg overall. This game will be a stroll for the Pats and I think they may spend some time working on the running game, they are improving having averaged 107 yards per game over the last 3. BJGE should get 15-20 carries and that should be enough against such a weak defense. DeAngelo Williams over 57.5 yards rushing 10/11 @ Skybet

Problem with betting on Panthers rushing yards is you never know who is going to get the carries, Williams is the primary back though and has been averaging 5 yards per carry. He comes in to this off the back of a couple of good performances having gained 73 and 69 yards against the Lions and Colts. Overall the Buccs defense is giving up 139.7 ypg to the run but it has been way worse than that recently. Chris Johnson took them for nearly 200 yards last week and they have given up at least 177 yards in 4 of the last 5 games
I'd expect Williams to get 10-15 carries which should be enough to cover the line.

49ers -13.5 v the Rams, 20/21 @ Skybet
Frank Gore over 89.5 yards rushing 5/6 @ Skybet

Sam Bradford is a game time decision for the Rams but with them activating the practice squad QB it looks unlikely he'll play, not that it would make much difference. The offensive line has gone missing for the Rams, Bradford is getting pounded and even the beast that is Steven Jackson can't run the ball. They won't get any respite from the 49ers who can clinch the division today. SF give up just 75ypg on the ground and it is hard to see them getting anything through the air. The Rams have a decent pass rush but little else to offer. They have the worst run defense in the entire NFL giving up 159ypg, Beanie Wells took them for over 200 yards last week and they face more of the same today. After something like 5 consecutive 100+ games Gore has struggled in the last 3, hampered by injury. That said he's had 10 days since the last game and with the incentive of becoming the 49ers all time leading rusher I think he could have a monster day. After being a bit below par in the last couple of weeks I'm expecting both Gore and the 49ers to come back to form against the hapless Rams.

All bets are 2 points stake

Sam Bradford is reportedly a game timed

[Dougal]

Re: NFL Week 13 Picks In my previous post the Frank Gore line is actually at Ladbrokes. I would edit my post but am using my phone and it's all proved beyond me :sad. apologies for the gibberish last line as well.

[AGurv]

Re: NFL Week 13 Picks Bills -2.5 to win 1 unit ...be scared!

[KennyDelight]

Re: NFL Week 13 Picks

New England

That 4th quarter :@ Only had 13+ @ 1.25 into Boca Juniors :\

[Delmarva]

Re: NFL Week 13 Picks SanDiego at Jacksonville [MNF] 1~Jacksonville Sys1 notes RF is 107-122 past, 4-1 ytd ... away to JaxVille Sys2 notes RF is 35-32 past, 0-0 ytd ... small lean with SanDiego HD is 131-105 past, 5-11 ytd ... lean with JaxVille Sys3 notes RF is 23-32 past, 0-1 ytd.... is Sys3 play against HD is 31-25 past, 0-0 ytd ... lean with JaxVille

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Week 13 Picks Carolina -2.5 @ 2.31 :D Chicago -9.5 @ 2.27 :( Losing RB Forte meant that they had no offence to make any inroads in an average Kansas side Houston -2.5 @ 2.21 :D If this team had their QB and looks like Johnson now, they would be a chance at winning the SB. Injuries are starting to hit them, but their defence, and both RBs are keeping them in the game New England -23.5 @ 2.51 :@ Now this was bullshit. When you are up by 28 points and against the worst offence in the league, how do you give up 3 TDs in the 4th quarter Green Bay -9.5 @ 2.46 :( The Giants found a pulse Jacksonville -2.5 @ 2.66 centrebet Both teams with little to play for, as their playoff apsirations are pretty much done. Like the Jags on a MNF game to show up, as they did against Baltimore. They will run the ball on this SD defence, while their own defence will be waiting to pick off Rivers. :( Record: 42-51 (+10.04)

[allthethings]

Re: NFL Week 13 Picks

New England -23.5 @ 2.51 :@ Now this was bullshit. When you are up by 28 points and against the worst offence in the league, how do you give up 3 TDs in the 4th quarter

Up by 28 points, they only needed to give up one TD to ruin your bet.

[JohnnyGG]

Re: NFL Week 13 Picks My bets were... Denver Broncos (-1) @ Minnesota Vikings Oakland Raiders (+3) @ Miami Dolphins For $10 each.

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Week 13 Picks

Up by 28 points' date=' they only needed to give up one TD to ruin your bet.[/quote'] True, but since they were well ahead, you would have expected them to either keep scoring, or since the defence was playing well up until then, look to keep them out. Strange happenings there.