polymer18 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Re: One size fits all polishmagic--- they are 12.35 blenheim 1.10 kudu country. prices short but as long as they win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polishMagic Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Re: One size fits all kudu 3 out of 3 ;p so no good ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polymer18 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Re: One size fits all 1 won/ kudu fell when winning easily. the system is though, long term profit. simple to operate it. can let you know if you want. doesnt look like machine is posting anymore. shame as it profits. :cigar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polishMagic Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Re: One size fits all sure i would like to :) why don;t you start the new topic and we'll see there is no point of spamming here Machine is doing great work so if you think you know how why don't you start your own and we'll see after a while... I would follow both of you for sure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polymer18 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Re: One size fits all Yep good work by machine. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 Re: One size fits all The 2 for yesterday were both losers stormy weather and kudu country I was sent this for free about 3 months ago :rollin yeh right Why do you suggest that the 1 rule comes from your own private ratings when all you need to do is buy racing post. Thats how much you know then isnt. The software pinpoints the most profitable RACES which work with the system this is what cuts it down from around 6 a day to much less and that is the part which makes it profitable. You carry on with your mythical free system following Topspeed ,RP top rated and Spotlight (by the way that ones called the Harvester System) start with the 236 bank Ive left and see how long you last ;) ) yet your suggesting that you send these to your members in advance. are you a tipster These are members of this board who get them the day before racing for FREE due to being unable to have internet connection before racing starts for the day, nothing more sinister than that. (its called helping other members and not trying to be a smug no it all ;) ) Oh and by the way I've been using it for a long while and it originated from the days of the old smartsig group of which I was a member and from ideas bounced around and tested using neural network programs, disregarding how simple a system ends up a lot of time and effort was needed then to collect data,buy the NN programs (not cheap those days) and actually run the data to test different variables on the shit slow computers. Thats the difference between systems that are thrown together and lose money and winning systems. I posted one system on the old Gummy Racing under the sig GTO (which some on here might know) which was one of most profitable they had ever had, in fact it was that good a famed internet shiester with the initials CD thought he'd sussed it and was selling his version 2 months later ripping people off for 49.99 :eek (surprise surprise it crashed and burned). Anyway I'll let you carry on as your wisdom seems to hold no bounds :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bray Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Re: One size fits all "The software pinpoints the most profitable RACES which work with the system this is what cuts it down from around 6 a day to much less and that is the part which makes it profitable." How does it do that then.:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polymer18 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Re: One size fits all Cheers for clearing up (machine) never new name of it. Hope you carry on with good profits. very sound. For me, im still only learning. (i dont mock others, just willing to learn) Happy punting. :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polymer18 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Re: One size fits all Very quite in here on the systems front atm so I thought I'd pop in with a little system . Most systems are either race type or jumps/flat specific this one as the heading says fits all. Chase,hurdles,nhflat,handicap,maiden,novice,group, sellers,stakes,claimers,firm,fast,good to firm,good,yielding,soft,heavy,turf and all weather (even Southwell) from only 1 system rule :loon :loon :loon "Impossible,you need hours of form study, ratings, timeform etc etc " I hear the purist cry. ;) QUOTED FROM YOUR HEADLINE. Just a mention. thought it was just a simple 1 rule system that anyone can do. All of a sudden went high tech. ratings/ sifting through races and then confining 6 bets to just a few. :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 Re: One size fits all You should know youve sussed it If you wanted to be pedantic then 2 system rules But then again you'd know that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 Re: One size fits all "The software pinpoints the most profitable RACES which work with the system this is what cuts it down from around 6 a day to much less and that is the part which makes it profitable." How does it do that then.:D Through pattern recognition from past results using NN or as some like to call it multiple regresion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bray Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Re: One size fits all so yes, we get the racing post and look to see what horses are tipped by the top three tipsters, postdata, spotlight and rrp, then we go to patternform website and enter the selections. and then what ? 1month, 6 month, 24 month, distance, going, class, racetype, prizemoney, course, what are we looking for, please explain the procedure.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 Re: One size fits all so yes' date=' we get the racing post and look to see what horses are tipped by the top three tipsters, postdata, spotlight and rrp,[/quote'] I ve never mentioned them Polymer said he'd worked it out to be them (oops sorry, he got them of this mystery free system someone just happened to send him) and from the examples he put up they looked like the old harvester system When did patternform come into it ? Gets more bizarre by the day :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiseguy0106 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Re: One size fits all Will you continue to post your picks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluespot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Re: One size fits all Just to let u know machine, this is great thread and its been a pleasure following your selections, hope you carry it on! if not then thanks for sharing such valuable information. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: One size fits all Just to let u know machine' date=' this is great thread and its been a pleasure following your selections, hope you carry it on! if not then thanks for sharing such valuable information.[/quote'] Thank you for the kind words sir :ok Its about trying to win a few bob in a structured way,with as little risk as possible using as much relevent data as you can. As Ive stated before I just work with numbers and their outcomes and it seems to work (sometimes) for me,I have no desire to read through all the pages of timeform,trainer form,jockey form etc so its pointless even asking me about it. 99% of systems put up on message boards are thrown together in 2 mins and put up after a short winning run oh and dont forget the legendary 1000 bank they just happen to have lying around :eyes These have never been researched,thought out or anything so when the inevitable losing run comes along the person who put up the system doesn't give a crap he's playing with his mythical grand, but some may actually be following these tips and end up losing a lot of money so some degree of responsibility is needed. Have to go out for a while but I will start a new thread later with how they are selected and why some are left out and hopefully that will keep the amateur 'ive sussed it out' detectives away while some of us try an make a profit with minimum interruptions. 2 candidates today Ffoss Lass 12.40 Kazlian Ludlow 1.00 Quincy des Pictons Kazlian is a no bet :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: One size fits all :clap and well done taking the early odds , returned at 6/4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: One size fits all Was very lucky today actually, hadn't even had a look as I was sorting a lot of work stuff out. It was only when my mate rang to see if I was going out tonight then asked me if I'd had a bet that I decided to have a look, so I owe him a pint now I suppose :lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Re: One size fits all nice winner yesterday adds a few more shekels to the pot Each race is rated and given an average price that price is divided into the price of the selections price if the result is between 1 and 2 the selection stands Kazlians price rating was only 0.87 which is less than 1 so was not a selection. its only a simple set up but it does the job and works for me. Kazlain won, but shit happens as they say, the price rating for the race is there to try and weed out the under/overpriced ones which in the past have proved unprofitable in that type of race/distance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Re: One size fits all Yesterdays update Bets 52 Wins 34 staked 405 profit 248.74 yield 61.41% 3 for today :hope Sedge 12.20 KEALIGOLANE Here 12.40 RYDALIS South 2.00 ECOSSAISE :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiseguy0106 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Re: One size fits all Is this software your creation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Re: One size fits all Is this software your creation? Yes Sedge 12.20 KEALIGOLANE second :$ fairly beaten by a better horse on the day :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Re: One size fits all Here 12.40 RYDALIS WTF! I could have run round in wellies better than that :@ not even in the frame :spank :hope ECOSSAISE saves face on the day and claws a bit back :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Re: One size fits all Absolute disaster today guys , I hate it when this happens 0 from 3 is not good :spank Two 2nds show at least were getting triers,but the run by Rydalis was to say the least abysmal. just goes to show nothing is carved in stone :sad Bets 55 Wins 34 staked 420 profit 233.74 yield 55.65% No bets tomorrow :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiseguy0106 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Re: One size fits all Great work! Thank you for sharing your picks. Are you willing to share what knowledge is required to build a software like yours? Where should someone begin if he wants to build it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Re: One size fits all Its only a database you can save them in excel ~ access ~ mysql ~ python etc the hard part is collecting the the data Once you have that you can try numerous systems until you find one that suits you :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 Re: One size fits all No system bets for today I was going to wait until I got to 100 bets but as there seems some interest and as Ive nothing better to do :eyes lets see how its performing . Runners 55 winners 34 SR 61.82% Estimated longest losing run = 4.......log(55)/-log(1-0.6182) Actual longest losing run = 3 Estimated longest winning run = 8.....log(55)/-log(0.6182) Actual longest winning run = 8 ALLR - ELLR = 3-4 = -1 this should always be negative or zero :D ALWR - ELWR = 8-8 = 0 this should preferably be plus or zero :D So far so good everything looks ok :ok Now lets give it an Archie test. This is a way to statisticaly evaluate how a system is performing,similar to a chi test. Anyone who doesnt know about an Archie test can read up HERE. What have we got.... Runners 55 winners 34 Expected winners 23.98 (the sum of the %ages of all bets) Average advantage = 1.42 (34/23.98) Archie = runners*(winners-expected winners)² ------------------------------------- expected winners*(runners-expected winners) 55*(34-23.98)² ------------- 23.98*(55-23.98) 5522.022 -------- 743.8596 =7.42 (7.5 to the nearest 0.5, the higher the score the better) When looked up in the archie table we get 0.0062 This means that there is a 0.62% chance of these results being by luck or in other words a 99.38% chance of being by a reliable system :D The average advantage means at the present time we are hitting 42% better than the bookies think we should. :D Now we have an average advantage score of 1.42 we can use that as a datum for how the system performs in later bets. At the moment everything is running sweet as, but dont forget this is only 55 bets so dont go pawning the family silver thinking youve found a get rich quick scheme because you havent, things can soon go tits up. Nothing going on now till Monday when theres about a million meetings so should be several selections. Laters :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mister magoo Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Re: One size fits all Thanks again mate for the winners so far. All the best for Xmas... PS...Does Archie still get around with Jughead and Veronica..or was it Betty...!!! :loon:loon:loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 Re: One size fits all :rollin :ok Have a good chrimbo magoo You'll need a big barbie for a turkey :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Re: One size fits all Morning chaps hope your hangover isnt as severe as mine :( 6 candidates for today Down Royal 2.30 Rocky Wednesday 3.30 Mount Colah Font 3.15 Sawago MRas 1.00 Be Definate 1.35 Wide Reciever 2.45 O Crotaigh :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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