Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th)

[Tedthewolf]

Great meet this with the PP gold cup on the Sat. The national hunt season starts here in earnest. Thoughts, analysis, stats, tips, snippet's etc in here old chaps:ok

[fintron]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th) quite looking forward to this meeting too Ted, had some fun down at Cheltenham in the past at this meeting and gonna look at the PP Gold Cup now. I see Pricewise put up the Giant Bolster for this the other week and it was well backed. I backed that one in the RSA and he couldn't get round.

[beaker1]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th) some key trends for the paddy power gold cup seven year olds have the best record favour horses carrying 10st 13lbs or higher first 3 in the betting usually perform as expected respect runners of nigel twiston davies,ferdy murphy and philip hobbs a previous victory over this trip is essential course winning form is a big plus dont discount runners making their seasonal debuts some other factors oppose 5yr olds and others aged 9 plus the form of the zeturf.com hcp chase is worth following favour runners which have achieved a top two finish on their most recent start p.nicholls and irish trained horses have a poor record in the race ignore horses who are stepping up from 2 miles in trip

[beaker1]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th) some key trends for the greatwood hurdle five-year olds are the age group to follow six or less previous starts over hurdles an official handicap rating of 140 is the mininum benchmark a top two finish last time is an advantage favour those that contested a graded race last time out the top two in the betting have a strong record other factors oppose four year olds and runners aged seven or above previous graded hurdle winners philip hobbs has won this race three times in the last nine years dont look beyond the first six in the betting

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th) I do love a Cheltenham card and its all about course form for me, and thats how i rate horses at the track In the big chase on saturday, nice of the bookies to price up Nicholls 5yo Mon Parrain as 5/1 jolly knowing full well he has never won the race and 5yo's have only won the race once in last 14 years Nicholls has left in the top weight Poqulein who loves it here but top weights dont win this race even with the course form behind it. I wont do the race until Friday to be honest

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th) At the mo i'm siding with GREAT ENDEAVOUR think it has a decent e/w shout although it fell at the course last time it ran there in general has a good record at it, ran in this last year when 6th and has 5lb more to carry here but imo the horse can find a bit more of improvement this year the 7yo has only run 13 times under rules. Around 14/1 at present. Paddy Power are money back if your horse is beaten by the SP Fav all races at Cheltenham.

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th)

At the mo i'm siding with GREAT ENDEAVOUR think it has a decent e/w shout although it fell at the course last time it ran there in general has a good record at it, ran in this last year when 6th and has 5lb more to carry here but imo the horse can find a bit more of improvement this year the 7yo has only run 13 times under rules. Around 14/1 at present. Paddy Power are money back if your horse is beaten by the SP Fav all races at Cheltenham.

yep i like the horse a lot, i hope he puts Danny Cook on it to be honest, with a 3lb claim also The horse has to be ridden up with the pace and Cook knows exactly what to do. Often finds one better though so others to consider before my final bet :ok

[Trotter]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th) sorry...........wrong thread

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th)

yep i like the horse a lot, i hope he puts Danny Cook on it to be honest, with a 3lb claim also The horse has to be ridden up with the pace and Cook knows exactly what to do. Often finds one better though so others to consider before my final bet :ok

Thats not a bad shout Bowlesy he 2/2 on the horse, one was at the track and i agree the 3lb would help.

[beaker1]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th) i like daves dream in this hope he gets a decent weight,hes a very decent horse on his day and runs very well when fresh his form after at least 6 months off reads 11111 and his form after less than 6 months off reads 0663400. He is sure to be well suited by the 2m4f,he easily won a good handicap chase at the course last seasonto add tohis imperial cup win he was well below par when favourite for the december gold cup

[Trotter]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th)

He is sure to be well suited by the 2m4f

I don't think that's at all clearly the case........just look at his record at around 20 furlongs...... beaten 43, 23, 44, 21, 48 and 73 lengths in his 6 races at the trip none of those runs were when coming off a decent break, so it might be that he flopped in all those runs because he wasn't fresh, but there's got to be a doubt over wether he gets that trip !

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th) That was my concern about Daves Dream, the trip as i think it is far more effective at, is 16-17f where its wins have come from. Saying that, my dad fancies it also!

[who?me?]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th)

I do love a Cheltenham card and its all about course form for me, and thats how i rate horses at the track In the big chase on saturday, nice of the bookies to price up Nicholls 5yo Mon Parrain as 5/1 jolly knowing full well he has never won the race and 5yo's have only won the race once in last 14 years

I really do agree - it's all about Cheltenham course form for me too. Even though I have Mon Parrain in my Jumps TTF, I can't back him for the Paddy Power as I don't know how's he's going to act at Cheltenham. I think he'll do well though as the season progresses. :hope There are 2 horses that interest me: NOBLE PRINCE and BILLIE MAGERN Both are course winners and have proved they can stay on well up that infamous Cheltenham hill. NOBLE PRINCE won the Jewsons at the Festival and will be carrying 2lb less than he did last March. His prep race at Naas last month should have sharpened him up nicely even though there were only 3 runners and it was over 2m and not 2m4f. BILLIE MAGERN won the Zeturf.com Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last month and will be carrying 16lb less on Saturday. NTD won the Paddy Power last year with surprise winner Little Josh and in 2008 with Imperial Commander and if STD gets the ride, then I think BILLIE MAGERN is a good e/w bet - he's 20/1 with Ladbrokes at present.

[BankofKauto]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th) 10 Year Paddy Power Gold Cup Trends 9/10 - Aged between 6-8 years-old 8/10 - Carried 11-3 or less 7/10 - Had a RPR of 161+ 7/10 - Came 1st or 2nd in their previous race 5/10 - Won this on their seasonal reappearance 4/10 - Ran at Cheltenham last time out 4/10 - Won by the Pipe stable (won the race 8 times since 1987) 4/10 - Won by the favourite 2/10 - Won by jockey Tony McCoy (won the race 4 times in all) 2/10 - Won by jockey Timmy Murphy 1/10 - Trained in Ireland 0/10 - Won by Paul Nicholls Only 1 winning 5 year-old since 1960 (1998 Cyfor Malta) Noble Prince is the standout pick for me and as soon as Paul Nolan confirms him for the race I will be backing him. He fits all the key trends. He won the Jewson over course and distance at the festival beating Wishfull Thinking and Loosen My Load off level weights. I think he is still well handicapped because of his runs on heavy in Ireland but is a different horse on good ground. The 12/1 wont last long if he is a confirmed runner.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th)

yep i like the horse a lot, i hope he puts Danny Cook on it to be honest, with a 3lb claim also The horse has to be ridden up with the pace and Cook knows exactly what to do. Often finds one better though so others to consider before my final bet :ok

Danny Cook hasn't been a claimer for ages, mate. Plus he's got no association with Pipe anymore.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th) I am actually looking forward to this as well, off work until Sunday so gives me plenty time to study and will get to catch all the action on Friday and Saturday.

[who?me?]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th) NOBLE PRINCE now also entered for Grade 2 Fortria Chase at Navan on Sunday so may well not run in Paddy Power after all. :sad

[benreado]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th) Providing the going is good, it's looking likely that Andy Stewart will not run Poquelin as he also has Nomecheki who is currently 5lb's out of the handicap. If Poquelin is taken out this will mean Nomecheki will run off his proper mark. I hope this does happen because it will mean 9 other horses will also be able to run off their true mark making a more competitive race. Out of these horses, I think the value lies with Nicky Richards' entry, NOBLE ALAN. The 8 year old is still relatively unexposed over this trip and if the ground remains on the fast side of good it'll definitely suit him. Noble Alan's raced twice in handicaps over 2 and a half miles and has been unlucky on both occasions. He first caught my eye in December last year he was stepped up to 2m5f for the first time when racing in the December Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham. That day he was held up towards the rear before making significant headway and disputed close up 4th and had every chance when falling 3 out. That was off a mark of 143. His two appearances following that he stepped back in trip to 16 furlongs and on both occasions he was outpaced making late headway but never getting close enough to make a strong challenge. Last time out he raced in a listed handicap chase at Market Rasen over 2m6f. Similarly to his race at Cheltenham he was help up in rear and made significant headway and was cantering having just taken the lead when Brian Harding unseated 2 out. There is no doubt in my mind he would have won comfortably that day had he not made the mistake (in fact the lose horse did stay on and was first past the post even without the motivation of his jockey!). Having been put up 2lb's for that performance he will run off 142 on Saturday (1lb lower than at Cheltenham last December) and for a horse that looks to me as if it is still improving I think he could be very well handicapped. He's still 20/1 in places which to me looks like very good value (especially if Poquelin doesn't run).

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th)

Danny Cook hasn't been a claimer for ages' date=' mate. Plus he's got no association with Pipe anymore.[/quote'] sorry my error, but he rode for pipe in October and its Johnson who will book the jockey anyway. I suppose Murphy will ride it then,

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th)

sorry my error' date=' but he rode for pipe in October and its Johnson who will book the jockey anyway. I suppose Murphy will ride it then,[/quote'] Down in the RP card Timmy Murphy rides.

[BankofKauto]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th) Paul Nolan says he is leaning towards the paddy power as long as Poquelin remains in the race. Paul Nicholls says Poquelin is an intended runner but will confirm after watching him work on Thursday.

[cpo]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th) I quite like Divers in this race. Has been aimed at the race and given the same prep as the yard's winner of the race L'Antartique in 2007. He fits most of the trends and goes well at Cheltenham. Ferdy Murphy starting to hit form with a couple of winners today.

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th)

BILLIE MAGERN won the Zeturf.com Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last month and will be carrying 16lb less on Saturday. NTD won the Paddy Power last year with surprise winner Little Josh and in 2008 with Imperial Commander and if STD gets the ride, then I think BILLIE MAGERN is a good e/w bet - he's 20/1 with Ladbrokes at present.

you are correct about the weight as the course is down to carry 9st 9lb, however this is not 16lb less as the horse won off OR 133 and now runs off OR 139 so a 6lb rise in fact The previous race was a lower class hence the lower weight this time around in this Class1 race :ok Notwithstanding that, it does fit a number of trends and NTD lovs this track and the big races here

[NewPunter]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th) Properly good racing this weekend, looks to be a great novice chase on Sunday

[switzerland]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th) Does anyone know if AP will take the ride on Noble Prince? Its possibly not confirmed yet but McManus has Fingeronthepulse running so I was unsure. This is a seriously tough race to call and you could make a case for probably 10 runners. Mon Parrain may well bolt up but I couldn't take 4/1 about him in such a competitive race. Here's my short list of 3. 1pt EW Wishful Thinking at 7/1 PP 1pt EW Noble Prince at 11/1 PP 0.5pt EW Noble Alan at 20/1 WH Really liked the form of Wishful Thinking last year. Progressive horse, good jumper, strong traveler, course and distance form. His run at Punchestown after a long hard season was really impressive. If WT is in the mix then Noble Prince has to come into the equation given that he already beat WT in the Jewson and now has a 4lb pull at the weights. But I thought AP gave Noble Prince a peach of a ride that day. Plus he pinged the last while WT hit it quite hard so I don't think there is too much between. Both horses have good course form which from a trends perspective is key to this race. The one thing that tempers my enthusiasm a bit is the fact that Long Run wasn't able to win off a similar weight last year. Maybe he wasn't 100% fit but it is a fairly big ask for last seasons novices to step up to this level off big weights. Still this pair appear to be very classy animals on the up. Noble Alan might still be ahead of the handicapper. He was running a belter at Cheltenham in December when coming down 3 out. He was travelling every bit as well as the winner and runner up that day (Poquelin and Great Endeavour). Noble Alan is now 5lbs better off with Great Endeavour who's a 10/1 shot for this race. So at twice those odds Noble Alan is worth an interest.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th) I heard Conor O'Farrell might claim 3lbs off Noble Prince, but considering he rides for Pipe, it could be bullshit. The main thing here is Poquelin to run, because if he doesn't, Noble and Wishful will just carry too much and something off low weight will always beat them. If Poquelin runs and Conor claims 3lbs however, I don't see Noble Prince beaten off 10-13. There's nothing as classy as him in the race bar Mon Parrain and the latter has to prove he finds off the birdle.

[BankofKauto]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th) Ladbrokes are offering a special on any horse that runs in either the paddy power gold cup or the greatwood and goes on to win any race @ the Cheltenham festival they are offering 3/1. If you think about the number and quality of runners you will have running for you 3/1 is huge imo.

[switzerland]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th)

I heard Conor O'Farrell might claim 3lbs off Noble Prince' date=' but considering he rides for Pipe, it could be bullshit. The main thing here is Poquelin to run, because if he doesn't, Noble and Wishful will just carry too much and something off low weight will always beat them. If Poquelin runs and Conor claims 3lbs however, I don't see Noble Prince beaten off 10-13. There's nothing as classy as him in the race bar Mon Parrain and the latter has to prove he finds off the birdle.[/quote'] Thanks Mileni. I'm making the assumption that Poquelin will run. It would make sense for him to keep the weight down for Mon Parrain. If AP rides Noble Prince them he must have a great chance.

[TheRat]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th) Poquelin will run Nicholls said Different owners so I don't think it's for Mon Parrain but he doesn't have a lot of options and has a good record in the race so might as well have a pop

[torn up slip]

Re: Cheltenham Nov Meeting (Fri 11th- Sun 13th)

I quite like Divers in this race. Has been aimed at the race and given the same prep as the yard's winner of the race L'Antartique in 2007. He fits most of the trends and goes well at Cheltenham. Ferdy Murphy starting to hit form with a couple of winners today.

You'd get a huge price on him for this race after the way it ran last time out. I think Ferdy Murphy also stated that he would be aimed at a later race in the season before it's first run of the season as he'd hardly done any work at all prior to it's seasonal debut. I think it's pretty telling that it's out again so soon in that it must still have a lot of additional weight to lose. I like the the horse myself as l think he jumps exceptionally well but l wont be backing it myself on this run.