England > Weekend > Championship > 14-16 October

[Spooner]

	Friday 14 October 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Doncaster Rovers v Leeds United (19:45 BST)	3.2	3.5	2.3	103.30 %

	Saturday 15 October 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Bristol City v Peterborough United (15:00 BST)	2.6	3.5	2.74	103.53 %
	Burnley v Reading (15:00 BST)	2.54	3.4	3	102.12 %
	Cardiff City v Ipswich Town (15:00 BST)	2.06	3.6	3.93	101.77 %
	Coventry City v Nottingham Forest (15:00 BST)	2.9	3.45	2.6	101.93 %
	Derby County v Southampton (15:00 BST)	3.68	3.6	2.1	102.57 %
	Middlesbrough v Millwall (15:00 BST)	1.87	3.6	5	101.25 %
	Watford v Crystal Palace (15:00 BST)	2.26	3.45	3.47	102.05 %
	West Ham v Blackpool (15:00 BST)	1.82	3.9	4.75	101.64 %
	Portsmouth v Barnsley (17:20 BST)	2	3.55	4.6	99.91 %
	Brighton & Hove Albion v Hull City (17:30 BST)	2.12	3.5	3.55	103.91 %

	Sunday 16 October 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Birmingham City v Leicester City (13:00 BST)	2.62	3.4	2.75	103.87 %

[oscillatewildly]

Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 14-16 October Early thoughts on possible value: Ipswich at about 3/1?! Massive value there. They've just been to West Ham and won, they have several Premiership-class players and are hitting some good form. Boro at 1.87 look a bit short, considering they haven't won in 4 games and have only scored 1 goal in the process! Having said that, Millwall have been awful in recent weeks, and I fancy Boro to get their promotion push back on track. I would want odds of 1.95 though, which you probably will only get I/P. Bit of value in Barnsley at 4.6. They're unbeaten in 7 and although they draw a lot of games, I like the way they play and they are definitely capable of winning. Portsmouth should be doing a lot better with the players they have...until their form improves though, I wouldn't even consider them at measly odds of evens! Lastly, I've made a lot of money opposing Brighton in recent weeks, and I see no reason to stop opposing them now. They may have been odds of 1.8 if this game was 3 weeks ago, but 2.12 is still short. Hull are difficult to beat and will be in the play-offs at the end of the season IMO. Their away record is especially good and they rarely concede more than 1. 3.55 is too big. Again, as with my Premier League post, I have not placed any bets and will not do so until later in the week. I just thought I would share my early thoughts, which may change depending on team news, odds changing etc :ok

[dj rob]

Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 14-16 October I´ll go ahead with early thoughts...I agree with Hull, and this is a bet I´ve already taken last week ( AH0 2.06 Pinnacle 4/10). Brighton concede too many goals and dropped points at home vs. Leeds and CP...and I don´t see both teams as strong away from home as Hull... Another good option is Crystal Palace at Watford, AH+0.25 2.03 is really tempting as Watford is weak at home and CP managed to get good results lately...and CP had 3 wins from last 4 games vs. Watford... Boro around 1.8 is fair since Millwall doesn´t reach anything nowadays and they don´t score...they only can hope for a scoreless draw, but I´m confident that Boro will score. Boros´recent scoreless draws were against stronger opposition and at least Boro has the strongest defense of the league so far, whereas Millwall has scored only one in last 6 league matches (when they lost to Watford 1-2). Barnsley looks tempting as well, but Pompey is a strange team, which can always give a performance, and I fear that their run of staying undefeated will come to an end. Nobet for me... Ipswich +0.5 1.9 seems to be a good bet, as Ipswich has become stronger in defense, which will help them at Cardiff...and look at recent H2H stats, Cardiff seems to be one of their favourite opponents. Don´t know why...H2H sometimes is strange.

[AHughes]

Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 14-16 October Can someone tell me why Crystal Palace's price is so high considering in their last two games they have had great results against two very good sides in the league in Brighton and West Ham ?

[Jase82]

Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 14-16 October The price on us is poor. No idea why Barnsley are so long, they're unbeaten in seven now, with six draws and have been very tight defensively. I think you could probably put a significant wager on Under 2.5 goals in this game. We should have Luke Varney back in contention for this game. Not sure though how settling all the speculation around Steve Cotterill's future has been. Probably be another tight game, with one goal either way winning it. But, if I were to back us I'd want more than the odds on offer due to the fact it'll be a very tight contest.

[Mindfulness]

Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 14-16 October

Can someone tell me why Crystal Palace's price is so high considering in their last two games they have had great results against two very good sides in the league in Brighton and West Ham ?

In terms of team strength and results the Palace price looks a little stupid and I can see no significant reason for why we are that long. It's possible that bookmakers do not think we can consistently pick up results away from home yet and I would say that is a fair assumption. We can still get the odd away glitch and the Doncaster game is a good example of where Palace just didn't really show up for the game that day. I'll do my usual preview tommorow after team news comes out, Watford aren't far away from being a decent little side under Dyche but technically speaking Palace are priced a little long for this contest.

[Kumanovac]

Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 14-16 October Not such a good weekend, maybe Leeds to score two or more @2,1 and Boro HW@1,85, but not so sure...

[DJ]

Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 14-16 October Derby @ 3.68 to beat Southampton :unsure surely there has to be AH value in that? I know Saints have started the season well but Derby have done ok too. I think Derby's chances of taking a result from this fixture are better than prices by the bookies. I also think both sides to score has an inevitability of happening bearing in kind the number of BTTS games that Southampton are involved in.

[sambo1983]

Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 14-16 October

Not such a good weekend' date=' maybe Leeds to score two or more @2,1 and Boro HW@1,85, but not so sure...[/quote'] I was tempted by this as Leeds are usually high scoring, but boring old Doncaster often stifle teams so it could be a bore draw - their last 5 home league games have gone 1-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-1, 0-1, so Sporting Index's price of 3 of total goals I think is very high...

[soundingstylish]

Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 14-16 October Brighton v Hull - Hull AH (+0.25) @ 2.05 - Victor Chandler Can't be having Brighton at just over evens here. It seems like the wheels are coming off at the Amex and they are starting to find it tough without the confidence carry over from last season's promotion. They've lost three out of their last four, drawing the remaining game, and meet a Hull side that are unbeaten in six & coming into a bit of form. The two wins Brighton did get at home were against Doncaster and Peterborough who are tipped to struggle at the business end of the season. I fancy Hull to get at the very least a point but a hard fought win shouldn't be out of their reach.

[Northwestpunter]

Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 14-16 October Portsmouth v BARNSLEY BARNSLEY +0 & +0.5 @ 2.23 (Pinnacle) Barnsley are unbeaten so far in their 5 away league matches, and have conceded just 3 goals in the process. Four of those matches have ended in low-scoring stalemates, and I would not be at all surprised to see another 0-0, 1-1 or 0-1 scoreline here (The Tykes 5 away games to date have produced just 7 goals in total). Barnsley are just the sort of "unfashionable" club that are often underestimated by Bookmakers and punters alike, and just the kind of team that often prove worth backing on asian handicaps. Manager Keith Hill has managed to make the Tykes more competitive this season than many expected (they were widely tipped for relegation at the start of the season), just as he did with his previous club, Rochdale, last season in League One. Rochdale had the 4th best away record in League One last season under Hill's management, and so far Barnsley are looking like the sort of side that you would want to be with on a regular basis, away from home against some of the higher-profile, but under-achieving clubs. I backed Barnsley last night, before it was confirmed this morning that Steve Cotterill was leaving Pompey to take over at Notts Forest. However that is just the icing on the cake for me. Pompey won't have time to get a proper replacement in before tommorrow's match - so presumably one of the existing coaches will take over as caretaker for this match. I think Barnsley could nick a narrow win on the south coast, but as they have drawn 4 of their last 5 on the road, and a draw is very possible, I have gone the +0 & +0.5 route.

[dak]

Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 14-16 October Doncaster - Leeds: Draw @ 3.50 (Victor Chandler) 10/10 After going 0-1-6 Doncaster has put together a string of 3 undefeated (2-1-0) results and may have recovered from the very poor start to the year. Leeds is undefeated in 4 matches (3-1-0) but the guests still have not won an away match (0-2-2) and really should not be favourites at about 2.30-2.40. I expect a tight match and it is likely that the match will end in under 2.5 goals which increases the chances of the draw. Doncaster has 7/10 unders overall and 5/5 unders at home. Leeds is the better squad, but the guests meet Doncaster at a time when they are improving and Leeds have not been convincing in away matches yet. The draw represents value, I think, given the dynamics of the encounter.

[Mindfulness]

Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 14-16 October Watford V Crystal Palace Just typed a fat post on this and then accidently crossed off the explorer window before posting (RRREEEEAAAAAGGGGHGHHHHHHH) Will try again. We return from another international break and Watford will be hoping they can hit the reset button and begin to string a few results together. They play some ok football under Dyche but their big problem is scoring goals, Iwelumo, Garner, Deeney and Sordell need to step up to the plate and find some form otherwise Watford will continue to struggle near the foot of the table. They are boosted by the loan signing of winger Michael Kightly, a fantastic player at this level IMO. Kightly is already match fit and is expected to start against Palace tommorow. I should add Watford's home form has been poor so far this season and their only victory has come against the hapless away force of Millwall. I won't blabber on about the rising fortunes of Palace but boss Dougie Freedman is slowly turning into a force to be reckoned with. We have a fully fit squad to choose from and Nathaniel Clyne may return at right back which will be a nice boost for us. There is very strong competition for places at Palace and this is a big plus for us. Our away form has been hit and miss this season and reads W2 D0 L3 F7 A7. I don't have a strong feeling either way for the outcome of this encounter so we'll have to rely on the stats and facts. Palace are playing with no pressure and have a significantly stronger squad than Watford. Dyche will have looked to revitalise during the international break and this could potentially boost Watford. Again I should stress Kightly is a great signing and could really cause Palace's Dean Moxey (LB) some problems. All in all I think the two sides could share the spoils with Palace picking up their first away draw of the season here. Probable Palace lineup: (getting more and more difficult) Speroni, Clyne, McCarthy, Gardner, Moxey, Ambrose, Wright, Jedinak, Parr, Scannell, Murray To summarise I don't have a strong feel for the outcome in either direction, Palace are priced a little long here but Watford should not be underestimated with the arrival of Kightly and an international break helping to muddy the waters a little. If I had to bet on this game: Crystal Palace +0.50 @ 3/4 (Betdaq) Feeling saucy: Draw @ 5/2 (Betfair)

[cvelezacz]

Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 14-16 October Middlesbrough not conceded goal on last 5 matches, Millwall not score on 6 of last 7. Maybe today can be a lot of goals. Boro vs Millwall over 3.5 or 4.5, what do you think?! :cigar

[FCP]

Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 14-16 October

Event	Cardiff - Ipswich
Selection	Ipswich +0.5 (Asian-handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	15/10/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 1.86
Reasoning	Cardiff was plagued by injuries with a total of eight main players being out of the team in the last weeks. Now, it is expected that some of them will return in this game, but even that happening, i think they can't be at their best due to the recent injuries and lack of rhythm too. Ipswich got 10 of the last 12 points and they have a full fit squad, having the chance of repeating the same starting eleven for the fifth consecutive game, backed by four positive performances, which is undoubtedly a advantage. Ipswich also has good tradition in the results when facing Cardiff, having won all the last five games they faced the Welsh side, three of them at Cardiff. 2-1-6 is the home record of Cardiff when receiving Ipswich and i believe in this in form Ipswich to get points at Cardiff again.

[RedDevil92]

Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 14-16 October

Middlesbrough not conceded goal on last 5 matches, Millwall not score on 6 of last 7. Maybe today can be a lot of goals. Boro vs Millwall over 3.5 or 4.5, what do you think?! :cigar

Is this a joke:unsure

[Dougal]

Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 14-16 October Derby @ 13/5 Bet365 You wouldn't think from the price that Derby were just three points behind the Saints, the bookies seem to think Derby are in a false position but I think there is a bit of value in the home side. Southampton have been perfect at home but not so good on the road, losing two and drawing one of their five away games. Derby have been decent at home winning three, with a draw and defeat. As ever in the Championship there's not much between the sides and I wouldn't have expected the home side to be more than 2/1. At the price I'll take a punt on the home side coming out on top.

[Alan Brazil]

Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 14-16 October Mainly checking out whether my registeration still works after a long time without writing here. As for Saints,they will run over many sides as long their main players are not injured.Alas I see no injuries for these: Kelvin Davis - Jos Hooiveld - Adam Lallana - Rickie Lambert.Of course odds of 3.5 and more are mouthwetting for Derby but they also tell that the bookies know their trade.Southampton are hard to stop. I somehow find more interesting away win odds. Barnsley,Palace, Blackpool and even my beloved Ipswich.Maybe a round to try an away win in every game - except Boro...

[shoesize14]

Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 14-16 October

Derby @ 13/5 Bet365 You wouldn't think from the price that Derby were just three points behind the Saints, the bookies seem to think Derby are in a false position but I think there is a bit of value in the home side. Southampton have been perfect at home but not so good on the road, losing two and drawing one of their five away games. Derby have been decent at home winning three, with a draw and defeat. As ever in the Championship there's not much between the sides and I wouldn't have expected the home side to be more than 2/1. At the price I'll take a punt on the home side coming out on top.

Taken Derby win or draw @ 1.80 - bet365 -small bet but I agree with you Derby look good value :hope

[Stardu5t]

Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 14-16 October Event Brighton - Hull Selection 0 Brighton (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 15/10/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 1.60 Reasoning The hosts at 6th to face 7th Hull team. Well Despite Brightons strong start, they have struggled in recent weeks Brighton lost its balance they are in downtrend last victory came about month ago and after two defats in a row this is a moment for them to bounce back on the right road.On the other Hull are looking to extend their unbeaten run to seven matches.Both have some problems with squad but i believe that Brighton has the strainght and power to achive positive result from this match. I expect a hard clash but this is my choice.

[Mindfulness]

Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 14-16 October

Watford V Crystal Palace Just typed a fat post on this and then accidently crossed off the explorer window before posting (RRREEEEAAAAAGGGGHGHHHHHHH) Will try again. We return from another international break and Watford will be hoping they can hit the reset button and begin to string a few results together. They play some ok football under Dyche but their big problem is scoring goals, Iwelumo, Garner, Deeney and Sordell need to step up to the plate and find some form otherwise Watford will continue to struggle near the foot of the table. They are boosted by the loan signing of winger Michael Kightly, a fantastic player at this level IMO. Kightly is already match fit and is expected to start against Palace tommorow. I should add Watford's home form has been poor so far this season and their only victory has come against the hapless away force of Millwall. I won't blabber on about the rising fortunes of Palace but boss Dougie Freedman is slowly turning into a force to be reckoned with. We have a fully fit squad to choose from and Nathaniel Clyne may return at right back which will be a nice boost for us. There is very strong competition for places at Palace and this is a big plus for us. Our away form has been hit and miss this season and reads W2 D0 L3 F7 A7. I don't have a strong feeling either way for the outcome of this encounter so we'll have to rely on the stats and facts. Palace are playing with no pressure and have a significantly stronger squad than Watford. Dyche will have looked to revitalise during the international break and this could potentially boost Watford. Again I should stress Kightly is a great signing and could really cause Palace's Dean Moxey (LB) some problems. All in all I think the two sides could share the spoils with Palace picking up their first away draw of the season here. Probable Palace lineup: (getting more and more difficult) Speroni, Clyne, McCarthy, Gardner, Moxey, Ambrose, Wright, Jedinak, Parr, Scannell, Murray To summarise I don't have a strong feel for the outcome in either direction, Palace are priced a little long here but Watford should not be underestimated with the arrival of Kightly and an international break helping to muddy the waters a little. If I had to bet on this game: Crystal Palace +0.50 @ 3/4 (Betdaq) Feeling saucy: Draw @ 5/2 (Betfair)

FT: Watford 0-2 Crystal Palace, individual quality in-front of goal the difference here with the two sides having a fairly even balance of play. I think Garner hit the post for Watford before we scored, a good win for us again today. I think bookmakers won't be quoting such long odds for us in the near future.