BBOTD 5th of October

[Aidymac]

Badger Or Bust - Navan 5:05 Big field of 23 horses go to post in this race so far and it is wide open, there are many with claims but i think this horse is a tad overpriced. This horse was obviously fancied last time out as Johnny Murtagh was booked but it could only manage 2nd, although a very creditable 2nd to On The Loose at Listowel, going down by 3/4 of a length. It seems the step up in trip and the softer going was the cause of its improvement and it is up another furlong tomorrow. Keane the jockey takes off 7 pounds also which could be crucial but it runs off same mark as last time out so is effectively 7 pounds better off. WIN @ 14/1 Paddy Power BOG

[Petersson1984]

Re: BBOTD 5th of October 16:00 Nottingham Estourah Win (5,50) William Hill The young colt, got a decent chance to break his maiden status. He is yet to win after 5 starts but whit a second and third last over the same distance, there are reason to be optimistic. The trainer Saeed bin suroor got a great record at Nottingham, whit victory in 40,3 % of his 67 runs. The jockey Dettori gets his third run whit Estourah. The previous two both ended whit a place. The jockey are in great form whit a strikerate of 27,27 %. The horse will wear CP and TT for the first time Estourah form. 3-3-8-2-3

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD 5th of October 7:40 Kempton - Rhythmic - 1pt @ 9/1 (PaddyPower) I'll take a chance on Godolphin's well-bred filly here, as Rhythmic is sure to be up to defying a mark of 80 at some stage and hopefully that's now. Antioco Murgia takes off a further 5lbs too and if this animal can step up on the form that saw her win a 12-runner maiden in impressive fashion at Doncaster, she could look very overpriced at 9/1 after the race. Her only run since then wasn't great but she didn't get the run of the race and should be much better suited to today's test. The opposition are a worry, as plenty of similarly unexposed types line up but this one could have any amount in hand once she can show it and she's worthy of support here.

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD 5th of October 15:40 Ludlow It might just be wishful thinking on my part but I think that GREAT MATES is still capable of being a horse rated in the low 120's and after what was a nice effort last time on his only start for Sophie Leech, he should run well on this ground at this distance for David Pipe. Had looked useful when with Paul Nicholls but began racing quite lazily at some points during his racing and was sold for £9000 over the summer. It was his first run for ten weeks when last seen and was allowed to bowl along towards the front of affairs and ran really well I thought, considering it was his first start for a little while and 2m at Newton Abbot was always going to be far too sharp for him, especially as his last victories have come at 2m4f and he's closely related to Racing Demon who needs little introduction. He was beaten for speed in the closing stages but wasn't knocked about once headed (given two cracks with the whip when the race was obviously gone). Although he's only dropped 1lb, the move to David Pipe could bring about a little bit of improvement but what's more likely to bring about a success is that fast conditions hold no fear for him, the step back up in trip looks ideal and he looks to be racing more enthusiastically than before. Alongside this, David Pipe is in good form as of late but with most of his, you're not quite sure what you're going to get. Even so, at 11/1 he's overpriced as I feel he should be around 6/1 and he rates as a bit of each-way value, especially in a 9 runner race like this. GREAT MATES; EW @ 11/1 Boylesports (bog)

[anokazr]

Re: BBOTD 5th of October Position 7.40 Kempton 0.5 pt e/w 12/1 Betfred won at southwell at this distance in august, by 10 lengths and it was a 5,000pound maiden. its gotta have a real each way chance. im a bit worried as i know southwell is comparable to soft turf, and he didnt like that lto. having said that it was a grade 2 and this is a big step down from that. :hope

[mileni4uk]

Re: BBOTD 5th of October Ludlow 3.10 Ripalong Lad win EW - 18/1 Fred Not finishing his races for some reason, but needed few starts last year before he won and maybe he'll do the same this time around. Trainer back to form after a quiet spell and return to bigger obstacles might help. Taking a shot in the dark obviously with most of these having chances, but equally lots of questions to answer. The selection has won off this mark and placed off much higher. Any return to form will see him involved today and the price allows us to try and find out if we can get a run for our money.

[Stevet1859]

Re: BBOTD 5th of October 3:10 Ludlow: Baily Storm 1pt win 6/1 Bet365 Lawney Hill is very good at improving horses when they are transferred to her. Hugh Taylor highlighted this is the past and it has proved a profitable way to pick winners in the long term. Baily Storm has more letters than numbers after his name of late, and it will need some magic to turn him around in the short time Baily Storm has been with his new yard. However, off just 107 here and with some money around for him, there is hope.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD 5th of October Very poor card today at Towcester but i'll side with Race 5 on the card. Trainer Rae Guest has two in the race but i'll go with his 4yr old bay gelding, he's been knocking on the door in a few past races and might just get his head infront today. Its a poor race and there doesn,t seem much confidence in the jolly, prob hose up now lol. Towcester 4:20 Pobs Trophy - 1pt win at 10/3 @ Stan James Ahh Sigh.

[switzerland]

Re: BBOTD 5th of October Nottingham 4.00 Ampleforth 1pt win 7/2 WH Mark Johnston's horses have really come into form - around 10 winners in the last week. Ampleforth knuckled down really well to beat a decent horse in the shape of Tadabeer last time out. That was over 9 furlong and he's stepping up to 10f today which should suit given the way he finished his race. Plus he's by Pivotal. This is his first run in a handicap and he gets in off bottom weight so I'm hoping he has a bit in hand. The two other 3year olds in the race are the one's I fear most. Street Secret looked very decent in June when she won a couple of nice races but has disappointed a little since. Estourah I'm keen to take on as I just can't get a read on the stable. They appear to be in great form yet they disappoint so often. Its so often the case where the stables have a few runners and their least fancied horse wins at a big price.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 5th of October 2:40 Ludlow - American Ladie - Back Very, very consistent type who always runs her race. Has a habit of finding one top good but she is genuine enough and I think she has a really big chance here. Fine lace looks the obvious danger but disappointed when pulled up lto and fly town has only ever run in point to points, is yet to win and this looks tougher for her. All in all, American Ladie has an excellent chance here 1pt win @ 8/13 Bet365 BOG

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD 5th of October 3.10 ludlow Sea Wall - course winner, distance winner, acts on GF ground, below last winning mark, won for jockey before, proven in grade. 16/1 b365 1 pt win

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD 5th of October 7.40 Kemp - Mr Knightley - ew at 20/1 bog wm hill I'm in the middle of having a break from the daily chore of form study to get myself all refreshed for the start of the All Weather season...........:D But at a bit of a loose end so had a look at tonight's Kempton card I reckon the above might have an EW squeak at a decent price - Hannon second string (i think the Hannon first string is the most likely winner) My selection put up a good performance in claiming company last time. It was a pretty poor race and none of the horses to have run since have done anything of note, but it was a fast time and he was eased to win by 10 lengths prior to that he had looked exposed in nursery company and now has to run off 5lbs higher than his last nursery rating However that was his first run on polytrack so I'm hoping he's one of those horses who is just better on polytrack. it was also his first run in blinkers and they're on again tonight. They often say that they don't work the second time, but he's had over a month to forget that he was wearing them...........:cigar Basically I have him top rated on aw speed figs and that'll do for me.........:lol

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: BBOTD 5th of October As I have mentioned in a previous thread, I'm going to start posting more on ATR and stick to what I enjoy the most - which are the 5f hell-for-leather sprints. There's been nothing around for a few days but a little interest tonight, despite the poor quality on show. 5.40 Kempton A very poor handicap and one in which there's already 4 NR's. There's a distinct lack of any recent winning form to go off but i think MI SUN DONK has got a chance. Less exposed than the rest of the field, hasn't disgraced himself in his 4 AW handicap starts so far and finished a respectable 4th LTO at Wolverhampton after switching back to today's trip. The gelding effectively 4lb better off than that run and I'm prepared to see if he can improve on that in a race that shouldn't take much winning, if he's up to it. MI SUN DONK 0.5pts E/W @ 12.00 (Paddy Power)

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD 5th of October Compton Rainbow 6.10 Kempt. 0.5 points each. Should improve enough to hit the frame and give the favourite plenty to think about.

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD 5th of October DRUMADOON 6.40 Kempton. 0.5 points each way. Consistent on the grass and has the form to go close in context with this race, if adapting to the aw surface. Shouldn't be a problem, so with the trip fine, should run a big race. 15/2 Betfred BOG

[kev2oo9]

Re: BBOTD 5th of October 8.40 Kempton - Indian Tinker win 12/1 bet365 hannon doesnt have a great s/r with nurserys on the aw and winless this year (2011) , eddery never sent one so market looks weak Half brother to Sapphire Princess who won on only visit to polytrack , in fact that is his only win , at 2yo. 3 runs so far , 2 of them at yarmouth and a further maiden at sandown where it finally got off the mark. Cowell does well in 2yo h/cap races with a 5/27 record with a lsp of 21.38 and when teamed with kelly on all 2yos they are 3/11 (last 5 years) with a profit of over 20pts and 1/2 in nurserys combined with a juicy profit of 15pts looks a bit big price wise and booking of kelly looks significant tonight as was handed the job lto and won

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD 5th of October 7.40 Kempton Shamaal Nibras e/w @ 16/1 Bet365 Didn't stand any chance whatsoever last time out against a very impressive winner at Yarmouth but I can see this one staying on for a place tonight. Spencer is on board again tonight but I think a return to the all weather and 1 mile should suit. This horse is bred to get much further but hopefully he will get a strong pace to run at. Trainer and jockey aren't in the best of form but hopefully this horse can run into a place.