BBOTD 1st of October

[Aidymac]

The Cheka - Ascot 3:50 Running in handicap company for the first time tomorrow and i think this horse is overpriced. Won a Listed race already earlier this year, beating top horses like Regal Parade, Beacon Lodge and Doncaster Rover that day. Three weeks ago on its last outing it ran in a Group 2 at Doncaster and was 3rd to Premio Loco, and looked a winner at one stage in the race, trading at a low of 1.50. George Baker gets to ride this horse for the first time tomorrow and the only time before The Cheka ran at Ascot it won. Trainer is in decent nick , he had a winner a couple of days ago in Choose The Moment and at 25/1 i feel The Cheka is worth a bet down in grade on handicap bow. WIN @ 25/1 VC BOG

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD 1st of October A3.15 Rose Bonheur 0.5pt E/W 14/1 William Hill I'm beating the sp handsomely at the moment, but it's no good if the horse doesn't win ! This is another one that looks overpriced today and I'd be surprised if it was as big as 14/1 tomorrow. It's actually only ran twice over 6 furlongs on good ground and won them both. The most recent of those two runs was particularly of interest when beating Katla which subsequently beat Alanza which looks really good form. All the firms have priced the race up and only 2 are going 14's and it's at short as 9's elsewhere - it could well be single figures at the off and looks a great e/w bet.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD 1st of October 400 Redcar: Bannock 1pt (5/2 Bet365) Post this now as wont get chance to do owt tomorrow. Good race this for the two year old trophy and Bannock can take this stepping back in grade. Johnston's horses are hitting form again and he will appreciate the sound surface. Drawn 22 should be a plus here and has won over the course. Good luck guys in the new month:ok

[Petersson1984]

Re: BBOTD 1st of October 17:35 Ascot Marygold Win (6,00) Bet365 This promising 2 year old, have shown impressiv form over the summer, whit a couple of great runs over the same distance. The young lady, had a great run last time at Bath and if Marygold can get a decent start and stay up front untill the last furlong, then her speed can be crucial. Marygold´s last 5 races. 1-6-2-3-1 The jockey Darryll Holland only won twice in the last couple of weeks, but both of those wins where in his two latest runs.

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD 1st of October 15:50 Ascot CASUAL GLIMPSE is dropped to what I think is his ideal trip after a very creditable effort over a mile at Doncaster last time, when finishing just behind Eton Forever.My selection is double the price of that Roger Varian charge and although there could be cause for improvement with that one, I still think that there's plenty of value in Casual Glimpse. Expected to be Group class by connections, he hasn't quite lived up to expectations but has improved over the late part of the summer quite nicely. He won with what looked like a fair bit in hand at Glorious Goodwood in a truly run race over 7f there and I'm not quite sure that the sharp track that day played to his strengths. He travels so well in his races (showed this last time) and he did have to get going a little sooner than what was preferable to get in front. Upped 4lbs, he bombed out on softer ground before returning with a fine effort at Doncaster last time. Not sure that a mile is his best trip as most of his best form is at 7f and this testing track could suit just right, especially on this quicker ground. He's overpriced at 16/1 as I'd almost have him in single figures and I still feel there's at least a 110 rated animal in there. Perhaps he doesn't quite want to show it but I'm hoping for a big run nonetheless. CASUAL GLIMPSE; EW @ 16/1 Ladbrokes (bog)

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD 1st of October 3:50 Ascot - Eton Forever - 1pt @ 8/1 (Boylesports) No fewer than 18 runners line up in an attempt to win this £93,375 prize and Eton Forever looks worthy of taking a chance on now that Roger Varian has dropped his 4 year old back to 7f. That looks like a very interesting move and it could well pay dividends for this strong-travelling sort, assuming the likely solid pace comes to fruition. Usually this race is dominated by the middle drawn horses and a sit in stall 1 may not be ideal but there seems to be enough pace around the lowers numbers to suggest that it won't be a disadvantage - hopefully that's the case. I backed Eton Forever on his last outing, in which he finished a 1½ length 2nd to Man Of Action after being backed into 9/4 favourite from 5/1 the night before. However, worries about a lack of pace in the race came to the fore and Varian's charge did exceptionally well to finish where he did considering that just doesn't suit. The race turned into a very short sprint for home and having taken it up around a furlong from home, my selection was mowed down in the closing stages by the fast-finishing Godolphin horse - one who has a superior turn of foot when races pan out like that. That's a great effort to come here on the back of and Eton Forever should strip better for it, as that was his first outing in 3 months. He is one that goes well fresh but should have no problem with this 3 week turnaround. The ground has come up right for him, as I feel he is a proper fast ground animal and that will help him significantly in his attempt to defy a mark of 103 in such a competitive handicap. He is a full 11lbs higher than when landing the Spring Cup at Doncaster (1m) in April but the manner in which he won that suggested he's a Group horse in waiting and I think that'll eventually prove to be the case. Eton Forever is not handicapped out of this at all (usually need a classy sort nowadays) and just needs to be able to mow down a solid pace in order to be seen at his best - and that seems likely here. The relatively stiff track will suit and the drop in trip is something that could unlock any amount of improvement, as he's not void of speed, nor a turn of foot when things are right. Varian's yard are going great guns of late, with 10 of their last 40 runners entering the winners enclosure and a further 10 running into a place. There's no better time to catch some of his animals and he will hopefully gain his second ever Ascot winner here. Neil Callan's doing well of late too but his poor course record would have to be a bit of a worry, as he's 6 from 114 at the course in the past 5 years. Regardless, if the horse is good enough and has things run to suit, he'll go well anyway. 9/1 looks a bit generous (6's would be fair) and I'll play medium win stakes again. It'll be tough for him to win but he's capable of doing so.

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD 1st of October 3.50 Ascot Pastoral Player - been knocking on the door this year and ran decent fourth to Smarty Socks over CD recently. Eased 2lb now by the handicapper and that rival has gone up, so theres a little weight swing there. 12/1 bet 365, 1 pt win

[Haystacks]

Re: BBOTD 1st of October Kames Park - Wol 9.20 (0.5 e/w 12-1 SJ) This 9-y-o was pretty consistent on the A-W last winter, including a win off today's mark over 11f with today's jockey at Kempton in Apr. Hasn't run on A-W since May and turf form hasn't been very good, but the return to A-W could well spark him into life again.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 1st of October 4:45 Newmarket - Principal Role - Back Looks absolutely standout here on official figures and the only lto winner in the field. She looks a quality type and is the most consistent type in this field. I'd be relatively surprised if she got beaten here to be honest as this looks a decent chance to follow up her lto win 1pt win @ 8/13 Hills BOG

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD 1st of October So glad September is over, nightmare month for me. 3.35 Newmarket Art History won very nicely lto and could be ready now to win at this distance. No De Sousa on board today but should still give it a good go. Jameel would be a big danger but has Richard Hills on board so that should be enough to stop him:) Art History has been as high as this in the handicap before but with a lot more experience under his belt he should go very close here. 1 Pt win 6/1 Bet365

[anokazr]

Re: BBOTD 1st of October 16.45 Newmarket Principal Role 4/6 sportingbet this one's obvious, i'll take it in a forecast with the one crowley's riding today. but yeh, none of the others look to be grade1 standard, either this is there first shot at it, as with bea remembered or theyve started running in em and have hit a brick wall with elagamou or whatever that fillys was called.

[TGS]

Re: BBOTD 1st of October Newmarket 3.35 Red Anthem - Each Way (40/1) Stan James This looks a tough race with doubts about some of these. Red Anthem wasnt disgraced on his british debut at Doncaster when behind Art History. That was a steadily run race however in which very little got into it from off the pace, it could be a similar stroy today with an awful lot of hold up style performers. Was given an easy race that day over what was a short enough trip. The form of that race is working out very well. A dual winner up to 15f in France, this step up in trip will suit better. Chance of running into a place if handling quicker ground. Others to be interested in are, Warlu Way and Art History. All the Best Today!

[punterpete]

Re: BBOTD 1st of October 3.50 Ascot Casual Glimpse ew @ 20/1 Bet >365 Had a quick scan through the trends for this race ad Casual Glimpse seems to meet most of them. Winner of a handicap at todays distance at Goodwood back in July and put in a good performance when finishing 3rd behind Man of Action and Eton Forever last time out at Doncaster over a mile. The drop back to 7 furlongs will suit and wit a decent draw I expect big run here.

[mileni4uk]

Re: BBOTD 1st of October Gowran Park 3.30 Talkin' Tough 1pt win - 5/1 Boyle Travelled well at Perth 10 days ago, but blew up and had to be dismounted. He is not a 3 miler though and return to shorter will suit. Races off very low mark and Ruby on board a big positive. Not a particularly strong race this and worth a modest wager at the price.

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD 1st of October 5:10 Redcar - Select Committee Trainer John Quinn won the 5:45 in 2010 and Select Committee is the only runner he sends here today. The 6yo has 2 wins from 7 here and 7 from 52 at the distance, a feat which was last achieved under a month ago. Definate place claims but going for the win today. 6/1 bet365 (bog)

[Tull]

Re: BBOTD 1st of October 4.00 Redcar - Excellette Thought I might try an post in this comp again after missing most of the last few months. The selection tries 6f for the first time after some decent performances at 5f. Open to more improvement today in what could be a strongly run race 0.5pts ew 20/1 sportingbet

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD 1st of October 4.25 Ascot - 1pt win Monsieur Joe @ 12/1 (VC) - BOG Monsieur Joe hasn't been at his best this season, but I think he'll have the race run to suit today, and is capable of running a big race in my opinion. He ran a superb race in Meydan to finish 2nd in a conditions race when only 1/2l behind Happy Dubai with horses including Prohibit in behind. He didn't really race in an ideal position in the valuable Al Quoz sprint next time out before he returned to today's c&d when going down narrowly behind Elnawin (won 8l since) and Noble Storm (2l listed winner since). His run at Windsor can be forgiven in my eyes seen as he's never run a good race at 6f really and his recent return to 5f was again in a small field, when I feel he's better when coming off a good pace which he should get today in this bigger field. Also, the visor was left off last time having been applied for his good runs this season. It returns today, and that could make all the difference. Walter Swinburn's horses are running well now after a quietish summer and I expect a big run from this one also.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD 1st of October Backed this one a few times so even at big odds am more than happy to stay loyal today. Trainer Rae Guest just sends out the one today and i hope he has tuned up the turbo, the 3yr old filly has run some crackers and if she gets to use her turbo today should run another great race. 14 starts and she's won 4 of them but she knows how to race and has been just a wee bit unlucky in winning more races than she has. she's very speedy and seems to like the min trip and todays ground should be fine. Ascot 4:25 - ALBANY ROSE - 0.5 e/w bet @ 50/1 VC & Boylesports & Sportingbet. Happy October troops, at ease men.

[Stevet1859]

Re: BBOTD 1st of October 4:50 Fontwell: Mr Valentino 1pt win 7/1 Blue Square David Bass will probably earn his riding fee here whatever happens. Last time out Mr Valentino got almost tailed off, then came with a late potentially winning run only to hand the race to Monty's Revenge by veering across the track. Monty's Revenge has won again since albeit in a chase. If this quirky figure of eight track keeps Mr Valentino interested he should go close.

[zoolander]

Re: BBOTD 1st of October Redcar 2:15 Kathleensluckylad 14-1 BET365 1 point WIN Several 2 year old winners in pedigree, yards juveniles are on fire and this looks way overpriced. Makin/Ryan combo haveing a great season and the trip and quick ground will suit this horse based on its bloodline, has a massive chance in a race that lacks a bit of depth.

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD 1st of October Eton's a NR. :( 2:05 Ascot - Caledonia Lady - 1pt @ 5/1 (Bet365) 16 runners are set to go to post for this flying 5 furlong Group 3 contest and Caledonia Lady looks to be the best bet if she can put it all together again. Jo Hughes' speedy filly comes here on the back of an impressive Listed win at Ayr and despite winning it in a ready fashion, the effort can be marked up a fair bit considering how much ground she made up having missed the kick at the start. The course was very favourable to those on the front end that day and I feel she showed an ocean of class to win in the style that she did. The opposition were no great shakes but Caledonia Lady won as she liked on the good-to-soft ground and today's quicker ground will suit even more. Her previous efforts also show how classy she is, as she has a couple of placed efforts to her name over this trip at Group 2 level (I'm ignoring her 6f form - 5f is her trip). She was only beaten a ¼ of a length (3rd) behind Best Terms in the Queen Mary Stakes over C&D on what was her second career outing and she was sent off at monstrous odds of 100/1 that day. She was rattling home from the rear on that occasion in yet another race where those at the front came out on top and she came out of that race with a hell of a lot of credit. Caledonia Lady's penultimate start - her first over 5f since that 3rd over C&D - was at Doncaster in the Flying Childers Stakes and yet again, she was flying towards the end and just couldn't get up. That was another brilliant effort and a repeat of it would surely see her go very close here, unless something is capable of progressing past her - which I doubt. This stiffer track will help and having finally broken her maiden tag last time out, there's every chance that she'll prove capable of following up with another win. The race will be run to suit and there should be no excuses if she doesn't run a big race here. She's the form pick, the best horse in the race and the one to be on at 5/1 (should be no bigger than 3's). Medium win stakes for me and hopefully she'll run a big race.

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD 1st of October INCENDO 3.35 Newmarket. 0.5 points each way. Consistent enough, but lacks a bit in a finish which has cost him to date. However, I'm willing the give him another go today, as Murtagh the best pilot for him and the race should be run to suit. Trip and ground not a concern and will give the principals a run for their money. 10/1 Bet365 BOG

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD 1st of October Parisian Pyramid 3.50 Ascot. 0.5 points each way. 7f will stretch him a bit, but ran decently enough last time I thought over 6f and this could come at the right time for him. Ground's no problem and it's another big handicap for him to cope with, which isn't a problem either. Big price, as does have bits of form that give him place claims, so at big odds would be well worth a go to hit the frame. 25/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD 1st of October

The Cheka - Ascot 3:50 Running in handicap company for the first time tomorrow and i think this horse is overpriced. Won a Listed race already earlier this year, beating top horses like Regal Parade, Beacon Lodge and Doncaster Rover that day. Three weeks ago on its last outing it ran in a Group 2 at Doncaster and was 3rd to Premio Loco, and looked a winner at one stage in the race, trading at a low of 1.50. George Baker gets to ride this horse for the first time tomorrow and the only time before The Cheka ran at Ascot it won. Trainer is in decent nick , he had a winner a couple of days ago in Choose The Moment and at 25/1 i feel The Cheka is worth a bet down in grade on handicap bow. WIN @ 25/1 VC BOG

Ran very well, finishing 3rd @ 12/1... Had it backed e/w but had it for the win for the purpose of the competition, still very happy with my pick as im beginning to find value. Well done anyone who had Pastoral Player, was looking at him, very well handicapped but was just too unreliable for me to back personally.

[cc75]

Re: BBOTD 1st of October 4.50 Fontwell: Keckerrocknixes 1pt win @ 7/1 PP BOG Decent chance here. Ran well over slightly shorter when last seen as runner up to a subsequent winner from 10lbs higher - only 1lb higher today and 1 pound out of the weights but still a big chance over a trip that looks sure to suit.

[cc75]

Re: BBOTD 1st of October that price had gone with PP by the way - it was 6/1 when I pushed the button same company