UEFA Champions League > 27 September

[HastGill1]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September Think I've added enough about the game already but 3.7 DNB (betfair) for City tonight is out of line with their chances of winning the game, esp with draw cover. I don't think personally that they will win but that price should be 2.8-3.0 imo..taken 1 point on it.

[beer]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Not true! I think City are a team to be feared, and i think they are a real threat to United in the premier league! However the champions league is a different ball-game and i think it will take city time to adjust to the champions league, however in 2 years time i think City will have the experience to maybe even win the champions league but at the moment they have a lot to prove! That ok with you Beer? ;)

ok ok but as i said earlier i will stay away from betting on this match because Bayern might have a great attack but i dont trust their defence. anyway good luck with your bets. :)

[nicko]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

i think that United fans shouldnot talk about the quality of Manchester City! and i am sure that , if City put a defensive squad , Bayern will struggle to score!

I think any fan should/can talk about any team... ...and I also think most teams put a defensive squad vs Bayern at Alianz Arena... I think a lot...

[icecreamdreams]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September Man united clean sheet it 1.78 on betfair. After all the crazy ideas for wins draws or losses il go with a simple bet. Man u will dominate possession and terriority. Much better players to control the game and play. Lindegard wants to impress with a clean sheet I'm sure. Basle best striker has been about for like 20 years and I've never thought he was great hence no one bought him to decent league. Basically man u should get this pretty safely after taking a nice early lead. Touch wood!

[TheNumber10]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September Napoli 3-1 with Milan that draw in Barcellona. San Paolo is a difficult stadium for all, the public very warm

[SharQ Bettor]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September Here are my personal thoughts CSKA Moscow - Inter This match is drawish for several reasons. First, there is not much difference in quality and form if you take into account the home advantage. Normally I never back Inter if they are playing without Sneijder. Last Saturday was the exception, though the bet won won, in hindsight I should not have placed my money on Inter. From what I saw their defense looked shaky. When Inter´s off-side trap fails tonight the pacy players of CSKA Moscow will take advantage of it. I am also curious what formation Inter will play. They have a lot of strikers, but I am more a fan of playing with wingers. The match will be played in a stadium with an artificial pitch which favours direct play. With Sneijder and Honda out, other players will have to make the game. Bayern Munich - Manchester City I think the value is on City +0.5. City (0) was/is actually available @ Betfair for 3.80. Both teams now have decent defences and this game could end in an under. Lyon - D. Zagreb Roberto De Agostini tipped Lyon -1.5. This might be a good call since Lyon this seasons prefers (if possible) to play more attacking football. Real Madrid - Ajax Pedro Dias actually tips Ajax +2. However, I am not so sure about this. As a somewhat of an Ajax fan I can tell that Ajax under Frank de Boer have improved compared to the beginning of last season when they playered under Martin Jol. That being said, I am not that much impressed by their defence. Their left-back, regardless of who is playing there is their weakest spot in their line-up. Their centre-backs are good defenders for the Eredivisie, but the Champions League is a different game. The centre-backs of Ajax are especially good in building up an attack and not very much in doing the actual job of defending. They have the reputation of being a teachers pet, rather than a ruthless defenders. I hope this was of help. :ok

[pg_yid]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September Bayern Munich- Man City draw @ 4 (Betfair) As has been said by some others I think there are high draw chances here, with both sides evenly matched. Bayern have the greater CL experience but City shade it in terms of quality (IMO). Bayern are definitely too short here, before I looked at the odds I would have guessed they would have been evens. But for me the value is on the draw. I expect at ight game, with Manicini setting his side out defensively, which increases draw chances. I also think neither side would be that unhappy with the draw, so if the scores are level with 15 minutes to play neither will take unnecessary risks going forward. This factor is important to me. Have also taken Benfica @ 1.53 (Bet365), but not much more to say than has already been mentioned.

[martin239]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Man united clean sheet it 1.78 on betfair. After all the crazy ideas for wins draws or losses il go with a simple bet. Man u will dominate possession and terriority. Much better players to control the game and play. Lindegard wants to impress with a clean sheet I'm sure. Basle best striker has been about for like 20 years and I've never thought he was great hence no one bought him to decent league. Basically man u should get this pretty safely after taking a nice early lead. Touch wood!

Also aided by the fact the Xerdan Shaqiri, easily Basel's most dangerous player, is out for tonight's match.

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

First thoughts: Otelul vs. Benfica Bet of the week for me. No way Otelul has even the smallest chance here. They were champions in Romania last year but since then, they didn't accomplish much else. No important transfers or individuals bought to improve their squad; The club is relying too much on their coach Dorinel Munteanu who took this team flying so high but without investing I don't see him keeping the squad at this level anymore. Proof is their poor start of the season, losing points to newly promoted teams and now they are placed on 8th with only 6 goals scored so far. They playing from three to three days in League 1, Cup and Europe and for a team which is no level for Europe, the players will not be fit and ready for taking a giant as Benfica. After drawing to Manchester United ( A good result IMO ) I expect Benfica to put out a strong squad and grab all three points here in Romania without any emotions. I think Benfica will win by 2 or 3 goals tomorrow. Don't see Otelul getting any points from this group, maybe just from the encounter with Basel at their home ground but that will be pointless. Don't know exact squad which benfica will take to Romania to face Otelul but if they going to get the win and take it very seriously even if Otelul is underdogs I'm pretty sure we will see an away win. Odds will drop until tomorrow I think so as fast as we have a team news skeleton we shall go for Benfica. If I would have 10.000 Euros I would bet all of them on Benfica that confident I am, something which I would probably never do again xD Away Win is priced at 1,50 - 1,55 and Away -1 is @ 2,33.

Having originally gone with Otelul here, I've decided against it. I think Benfica will win, possibly by a few goals. But as they are such short odds, it'll be a no bet for me.

[Dylan]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

CSKA vs Inter – over 2.5 goals 2.20 at Ladbrokes (3/10)

:ok Always good when a bet is won by half time. I've just put one more bet on for tonight and it's; Napoli vs Villarreal – Napoli -0.5AH 1.98 at bet365 (3/10 units) Odds have risen a bit on Napoli today by the looks of things and that has swayed me to have a little flutter here. Napoli are such a strong home team and have an style of play which can at times lull opponents into a false sense of dominance making them push for the goal and then they will just counter attack with one of the better front threes in European football and snatch goals. A prime example of this was against Milan two weeks ago, in a match that Milan had 60% position but still ended up losing 3-1. They will again look to do this tonight and I’m sure it will pay off for them (and me!) I’m yet to see Villarreal in action this season, but have seen plenty of them over the last few seasons. From what I’ve heard / read they still adopt a similar philosophy tactics wise, playing possession football like Barca do with plenty of tricky players making runs and space for themselves. However Napoli are quite strong defensively (with the exception of Fideleff who has been terrible so far this season and is likely to be dropped for this game, with Aronica coming in) and will not succumb easily to Villarreal’s pressure. Indeed their attacking ability is weakened at the moment, Carzola arguably their outstanding player for the last few years has gone, Ruben is out injured and Rossi is not 100% fit it seems. Napoli should be able to soak up whatever Villarreal throw at them and then get atleast one goal on the break to win the match. It is important for them to ensure they build on the point against City. :hope

[HastGill1]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September Like the look of the City team: Hart, Richards, K.Toure, Kompany, Clichy; Barry, Y.Toure; Nasri, Aguero, Silva; Dzeko. On paper if that team isn't worth a go at 3.7 DNB, I don't know what is..

[Aidymac]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Like the look of the City team: Hart, Richards, K.Toure, Kompany, Clichy; Barry, Y.Toure; Nasri, Aguero, Silva; Dzeko. On paper if that team isn't worth a go at 3.7 DNB, I don't know what is..

Looks like a nice team apart from fat-ass Barry , Toure and Clichy!

[HastGill1]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September Like the look of the United team too, although some might not agree: De Gea; Evra, Jones, Ferdinand, Fabio; Carrick, Giggs, Anderson, Valencia, Young; Wellbeck.

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Here's a new idea. I am trying to evaluate and compare some possible value bets I have shortlisted on tonight's games. For ease of comparison, I have tried to find bets that are approximately evens (2.0). Here are three bets I have listed for tonight that I think are good value: Bet 1 Bayern Munich v Man City Under 2.5 goals 2.1 I see this is a tight defensive game with both sides setting out not to lose, particularly Man City. Both have good attacks and solid defences, and in this game I think they will put their defences first. So I think it's likely there will be fewer than 2.5 goals, and the odds of 2.1 are good value. All four of these two teams Champions League games so far have been under 2.5 goals (Bayern wins by 1-0, 2-0 and 2-0 and City a 1-1 draw) and I don't see this one being different. Bet 2 Otelul v Benfica Otelul AH +1.0 2.075 Benfica are a class above Otelul. But Benfica have yet to convince me that they have more than a talented collection of players. I think their manager may be under-estimating the Romanian side Otelul, and the odds on Otelul seem too low. In contrast to Porto, Benfica have done nothing in Europe in the last few years. They seem to have that air of vulnerability about them. The AH +1.0 bet above means if Otelul win or draw, it wins, if Benfica win by 2 goals it loses, and if Benfica win by 1 goal it is void. Bet 3 Trabzonspor v Lille Lille AH 0 1.825 I feel Lille should be slightly shorter odds for this against the Turkish side. After the first games, Lille need a win more than Trabzonspor. (Lille drew at home to CSKA Moscow, and Trabzonspor got a suprise win at Inter Milan). As far as I can see, French sides have a good record against Turkish ones, and I think Lille may have a bit too much for Trabzonspor. AH 0 is the same as draw no bet. All odds are with Bet 365 Here are the three bets above again: Bet 1 Bayern Munich v Man City Under 2.5 goals @ 2.1 Bet 2 Otelul v Benfica Otelul AH +1.0 @ 2.075 Bet 3 Trabzonspor v Lille Lille AH 0 @ 1.825 I would be interested in any comments on these bets, and particularly which of the three bets you think is best value. All feedback welcome :)

Reviewing my own shortlist of three possible value bets for tonight's games, I agree with Zacharael, who suggestd Bet 3 - Lille at Trabzonspor. I've dropped bet 2 Otelul, and I think unders on the Bayern v City game is also good value, but riskier than the Lille game - if there's an early goal in Munich it would change everything.

[Dylan]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Like the look of the City team: Hart, Richards, K.Toure, Kompany, Clichy; Barry, Y.Toure; Nasri, Aguero, Silva; Dzeko. On paper if that team isn't worth a go at 3.7 DNB, I don't know what is..

I'm going to avoid this game myself but surely there is goals in this one. If I was braver with my money I would take over 3.5. Both great attacking sides with defensive weaknesses in my mind. I still remain unconvinced by Richards and Clichy's defensive ablity, and with Toure lacking match practice I would fancy the likes of Ribery, Gomez, Muller and Robben off the bench to cause them a fair few problems. Barry as the defensive shield with those guys running at him doesn't bode much confidence either. I'm also not sure about Rafinha for Bayern and whether he can cut it at this level and as for Van Buyten, he is poor and is in for a tough night with Nasri, Silva and Aguero running rings around him.

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

I've going to avoid this game myself but surely there is definitely goals in this one. If I was braver with my money I would take over 3.5

If it was a knockout game, I would expect overs, but it's a group game, with an outlook where both teams would probably take a draw.

[Aidymac]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Bayern Munich v Man City For me i think Bayern are going to destroy City tonight and i believe champions league heritage and culture counts. Look at what they did to Villareal away from home and a poor Napoli side should have beat City at the City Ground! No contest , Bayern win. WIN @ 5/6 Paddy Power Napoli v Villareal Should have beat City only for a late goal, played extremely well and outplayed City in long spells. Villareal were very poor in their opener against Bayern and i can see Napoli winning this one! WIN @ 10/11 Hills Double @ 2.3/1 Paddy Power

:beer:beer:beer Bayern battered City as expected!

[Zacharael]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Otelul Galati vs. Benfica

As posted yesterday, I'll stick to my thoughts. Benfica is still at 1,55 so I'll take it. What I was most worried about this game was about Benfica's approach to this encounter, but it seems Jesus is not taking Otelul lightly and will come here to Romania to grab all three points. The coach said in an interview that they have same concentration as they had with Manchester United, with defender Garay adding that they trained and prepared for this game with commitment and without taking into consideration the fact that Otelul are debutants. The game will not be played on Otelul's home ground, but instead they will play on National Arena in Bucharest. National Arena has alot more seats than what otelul has, but I personally don't expect way too many people to go to the stadium to support Otelul or watch their game. otelul is probably playing the most un-attractive football at the moment and personally, if it would be for me to go to the stadium I'd probably go there to watch Benfica's play. Coach Dorinel Munteanu is missing main defender on the left, Sălăgean being suspended while right defender Rapa will be doubtful coming after an injury ( wasn't involved in last 3 games of Otelul's ) and even if he starts tonight he might not be fully fit for an opponent like Benfica. There are problems at the Romanian club, both at administrative level and also between players. The Romanian champions are going very bad and I don't see them being a real threat to the title this season. Winning the title it was a surprise to everyone, and most of the opponents in Romania didn't take them seriously and by the time they realized otelul is in top of the table it was too late to out-run them. They didn't invest much and they sticked to same team they had 2-3 seasons ago with maybe few changes. Some might think that is a good thing becuz the team is homogenous, but in fact they don't have any individual to make the difference on the field. Maybe most dangerous man on their squad is Antal, a player which already Jesus has him in his eyes and probably won't do much tonight and will be closed down most of the time by the Portuguese side. Benfica is doing better and better from a season to another and they proved it by drawing at Porto 2:2 in last game. They playing awesome and attacking soccer, attracting and scoring many goals. With Cardozo up-front, Gaitán, Aimar, Nolito at the back I see real threat and more than two goals scored by Benfica, most probably they gonna take the lead by half-time. Otelul's defenders are slow and won't be at the same level as the fire-power Benfica will have for this game. Selection: Benfica @ 1,55 - Stake: 10/10 Selection: Benfica -1 AH @ 1,82 - Stake: 10/10

Otelul 0 : 1 Benfica :cheers Benfica dominated having 64% possession. Otelul barely had two shots on goal :) Btw, good job for all those who backed Bayern! Champions League is not a ground City should be backed too much. I personally am a fan of both Bayern and City and I wouldn't side with any, but City is awesome in England and needs more experience in Europe still :)

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Napoli vs Villarreal – Napoli -0.5AH 1.98 at bet365 (3/10 units) Odds have risen a bit on Napoli today by the looks of things and that has swayed me to have a little flutter here. Napoli are such a strong home team and have an style of play which can at times lull opponents into a false sense of dominance making them push for the goal and then they will just counter attack with one of the better front threes in European football and snatch goals. A prime example of this was against Milan two weeks ago, in a match that Milan had 60% position but still ended up losing 3-1. They will again look to do this tonight and I’m sure it will pay off for them (and me!) I’m yet to see Villarreal in action this season, but have seen plenty of them over the last few seasons. From what I’ve heard / read they still adopt a similar philosophy tactics wise, playing possession football like Barca do with plenty of tricky players making runs and space for themselves. However Napoli are quite strong defensively (with the exception of Fideleff who has been terrible so far this season and is likely to be dropped for this game, with Aronica coming in) and will not succumb easily to Villarreal’s pressure. Indeed their attacking ability is weakened at the moment, Carzola arguably their outstanding player for the last few years has gone, Ruben is out injured and Rossi is not 100% fit it seems. Napoli should be able to soak up whatever Villarreal throw at them and then get atleast one goal on the break to win the match. It is important for them to ensure they build on the point against City. :hope

Well judged :ok

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Inter Milan @ 2.05 (0AH) Pinnacle From the first glance it looks like CSKA is overpriced here. These kind of odds I was expecting to see when CSKA was playing in the beginning of the season and Gasperini would be still the coach for Inter. But at this moment situation is different. CSKA has only 2 wins in 9 games. One of the wins was against TomTomsk who are one of the weakest sides in Russian premier league and the other was in the last game against V. Novgorod when they were able to show dominance only when Novgorod was playing with ten men (take in mind that Novgorod played 120 min already on Wednesday). In the first CHL group game against Lile they were very, very lucky to get that draw... Lille completely dominated the game but at the end they conceded because of sleepy defense. Now they have lost their top position in league and there are already some dark clouds over Leonid Slutsky's head, though the last win gave him little bit room for breathing. And of course those neverending injury problems for CSKA doesn't make the things easier for them. As for Inter I think they will get back on a track. Ranieri was one of the best options what they could get and I am pretty sure he will change the tactics and solve their defence problems. Cannot say that they were impressive against Bologna, but they played Ok and got 3 points well deserved, though defense at times looked shaky. What is more important, they finally got a win.... that should give them some confidence back. Not gonna say that Inter will trash them but a tight fight is what i expect ( under an option ?! ) and imo Inter will sneak a win here. Odds are not so bad for the team who is on a way up.

:ok (FT: 2-3) I saw a little bit of the second half, and it looked as though Inter deserved their win.

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

B.Munich - Man.City Both teams play attacking football and have quality strikers up front. In their domestic leagues both teams recorded solid wins. Man.City beat Everton 2-0 while B.Munich beat B.Leverkusen 3-0. After dropping points at home against Napoli Man.City won't sit in defense and will most likely attack. However, B.Munich is a strong team especially at home so I don't see them defending either. Moreover, B.Munich has an impressive record against English teams with 8 wins and only 1 defeat in 15 games. This game is hard to call, but considering how both sides play I will go for goals in this one. Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 (3 units) William Hill

FT: 2-0 I watched some of it. For all City's so-called quality, Bayern dominated the game exactly as they have done in all their recent matches, outworking and out-playing City throughout. In hindsight, the value was all on Bayern. I backed under 2.5 goals, but that could very easily have lost, as Bayern could have scored a few more.

[Dylan]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

CSKA vs Inter – over 2.5 goals 2.20 at Ladbrokes (3/10) Napoli vs Villarreal – Napoli -0.5AH 1.98 at bet365 (3/10 units)

2/2 in the Champions League tonight and +6.54 units profit. Well done to all other winners tonight. :clap

[kukacomone]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September Mancini: Tevez refused to play against Bayern http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/soccer/09/27/mancini.tevez.ap/index.html?eref=sircrc ?!

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Here's a new idea. I am trying to evaluate and compare some possible value bets I have shortlisted on tonight's games. For ease of comparison, I have tried to find bets that are approximately evens (2.0). Here are three bets I have listed for tonight that I think are good value: Bet 1 Bayern Munich v Man City Under 2.5 goals 2.1 I see this is a tight defensive game with both sides setting out not to lose, particularly Man City. Both have good attacks and solid defences, and in this game I think they will put their defences first. So I think it's likely there will be fewer than 2.5 goals, and the odds of 2.1 are good value. All four of these two teams Champions League games so far have been under 2.5 goals (Bayern wins by 1-0, 2-0 and 2-0 and City a 1-1 draw) and I don't see this one being different. Bet 2 Otelul v Benfica Otelul AH +1.0 2.075 Benfica are a class above Otelul. But Benfica have yet to convince me that they have more than a talented collection of players. I think their manager may be under-estimating the Romanian side Otelul, and the odds on Otelul seem too low. In contrast to Porto, Benfica have done nothing in Europe in the last few years. They seem to have that air of vulnerability about them. The AH +1.0 bet above means if Otelul win or draw, it wins, if Benfica win by 2 goals it loses, and if Benfica win by 1 goal it is void. Bet 3 Trabzonspor v Lille Lille AH 0 1.825 I feel Lille should be slightly shorter odds for this against the Turkish side. After the first games, Lille need a win more than Trabzonspor. (Lille drew at home to CSKA Moscow, and Trabzonspor got a suprise win at Inter Milan). As far as I can see, French sides have a good record against Turkish ones, and I think Lille may have a bit too much for Trabzonspor. AH 0 is the same as draw no bet. All odds are with Bet 365 Here are the three bets above again: Bet 1 Bayern Munich v Man City Under 2.5 goals @ 2.1 Bet 2 Otelul v Benfica Otelul AH +1.0 @ 2.075 Bet 3 Trabzonspor v Lille Lille AH 0 @ 1.825 I would be interested in any comments on these bets, and particularly which of the three bets you think is best value. All feedback welcome :)

Just a quick review of the above. My chosen bet of the three was Lille AH 0, which was void (FT: 1-1). Benfica won 1-0 so that AH bet was void too. Ironically, the bet that won was Bayern v City under 2.5 goals - a bit lucky perhaps, but I'm happy that of the three bets, one won and two were void :ok

[Kyromacer]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Mancini: Tevez refused to play against Bayern http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/soccer/09/27/mancini.tevez.ap/index.html?eref=sircrc ?!

He refused to warm-up when asked. Mancini said he will never play for the club again. Disgraceful behaviour. Should be made train by himself for the remainder of his contract. Fine him every time he doesn't show up. ****.

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Bayern Munich v Man City For me i think Bayern are going to destroy City tonight and i believe champions league heritage and culture counts. Look at what they did to Villareal away from home and a poor Napoli side should have beat City at the City Ground! No contest , Bayern win. WIN @ 5/6 Paddy Power Napoli v Villareal Should have beat City only for a late goal, played extremely well and outplayed City in long spells. Villareal were very poor in their opener against Bayern and i can see Napoli winning this one! WIN @ 10/11 Hills Double @ 2.3/1 Paddy Power

:clap Impressive

[kukacomone]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September He earns a lot of money! I cant understand how he can do this!

[Kyromacer]

He earns a lot of money! I cant understand how he can do this!

He wants out. I hope Man City terminate his contract and sue him. They need him out of the club. Forget what I said about leaving him rot in the reserves. They need to get him away from the club as soon as possible.

[kukacomone]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September Yeah I know he wants out, but when will I earn that kind of money he does!? And he refuse to play.. And what does he think?! City will let him go, and other clubs will happily sign him with this kind of behavior? This is outrageous!

[TheNumber10]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Naples comes from 2 races without nets, but did catch his breath Mazzarri many players, particularly in the defeat against Chievo Verona 1-0. The coach said that the priority these days is the company's champions. Napoli have a competitive team and it showed in Manchester where I think he deserved something more. Heavy absence in Villarreal where will the best man, Joseph Smith, in Naples in May will be replaced probably by Zuniga, which is much more careful in defense. Napoli 3412. De Sanctis; Campagnaro (Fernandez), Cannavaro, Aronica; Zuniga, Inler, Gargano, Dossena; Hamsik; Lavezzi, Cavani Villarreal 451/442. Lopez; Zapata, Musacchio, Gonzalo, Catala; Camunas, Soriano, Senna, De Guzman, Cani, Nilmar Napoli -0,5 @1,93 IBCBET

:beer