UEFA Champions League > 27 September

[pinballmad]

lyon - dinamo a few words..... dinamo with a full squad, looks like beqiraj will start at forward instead of rukavina who keeps start at forward instead of rukavina who keeps missing sitters. the rest will probably be more or less the same as it was vs real. the rb position still a question as vrsaljko is serving his ban for the red card vs malmo. this means simunic, the latest transfer, could step in as cb and vida will go to rb with leko going to dmc. dinamo played well vs real, but in all fairness, that match should've endded 1:3 with kelava making some miracle saves. lyon won with ease last round vs bordeaux and even some of the important players managed to get some rest. lisandro is still injured but the rest are fit. still injured but the rest are fit. dinamo have a history of beeing trashed away even by semi-decent european sides & i feel this will continue. kealva may have a great game again but that's the only way dinamo will be able to kkep lyon out. on the other end beqiraj is not realy a gola threat, more of "hard working" forward and unlike in real match, i have trouble seeing dinamo scoring but as lyon is not exactly great at the back atm lyon to win to 0 is not a bet i will take. dinamo have a history of handing easy goals to their opponents in european competitions & although this hasn't happened vs real, i doubt that they will repeat this vs lyon. add to that a "new" defense again & the -1.5 looks in easy reach with bastos and gomis looking to punish any of dinamo mistakes. with a tight schedule lyon have been playing, i don't expect a total bashing as they'll probably take the foot of the gas a bit if they get a cumfy lead. cs prediction: 2-0/3-0/3-1 @ 3.15 lyon -1.5 @ 2.11 good luck

[HastGill1]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

I disagree.....if you look at the way they've set themselves up against the top sides in the EPL' date=' City have been much more cautious. I can see this game being equally as tight as both sides feel eachother out. So to speak.[/quote'] I think this is a very tough game to call, although I agree in principle with this comment. Mancini set up very defensively last season against the bigger clubs, they haven't played anyone decent yet this season so we can't say if this is still the case but I would say it's likely, on the attacking side Silva and Aguero are in excellent form, they have Dzeko and Nasri also who have looked decent. Nigel De Jong being fit is crucial for City, Bayern have been in brilliant form so far and carry a great deal of attacking threat and with the one up front a lot of their threat comes through Robben (if he is starting, been injured), Ribery and Muller through the attacking midfield. With Robben and Ribery cutting in a lot, De Jong will be crucial in cutting this threat down, I wouldn't have much confidence in Milner coming into that midfield and having the same impact, although Toure would take on this role if that were to happen and he should be more than capable. General feel seems to be that City will line up as follows: --------------------Hart--------------------- -Richards-----Kompany----Lescott-----Clichy- ----------------De Jong----Barry------------- ----------------------Yaya------------------ ------------Aguero---------Silva------------- ---------------------Dzeko------------------ Tevez looks all over the place currently, unfit and a bit fat looking at highlights of games! That line-up tells you how they will play. They are not going to dominate possession, the base of eight is strong and pretty dependable although I can't say Lescott and Richards would fill me with total confidence. The difference now is that in Aguero and Silva they have two of the best attacking midfielder/forwards in the world, they can cause real problems on the break. Dzeko also has a decent record against Bayern but I wouldn't read too much into that. I personally don't think City will be able to sustain a EPL and CL campaign for the season. Respect must be given to Bayern, they have done really well to plug the holes in the defence that were very apparent last season, Neuer is the best goalkeeper in the world for me, the manner in which they have started the season is pretty terrifying to be honest, Gomez is on fire. ------------------------Neuer----------------------- Rafinha---V.Buyten/Boateng------Badstuber-----Lahm -----------Schweinsteiger-------Tymoshchuk-------- -------Robben/Kroos----Muller----------Ribery------- --------------------------Gomez-------------------- Two very solid looking sides for me, keeping Robben fit is crucial to Bayerns chances though as they always look far better when he is on the pitch, he came on for a bit at the end of the game at the weekend but I'm not sure if he will start this one. It would be better if they started with Boateng at CB rather than V.Buyten who will struggle with the pace of ASguero and Silva. You can argue about the quality of sides they have faced but the same arguments could be levelled at City, not played anyone of quality yet, bar perhaps United in the Community Shield when they fell apart when United stepped it up but you can't draw conclusions from what is basically a friendly. One of those games where you could create a convincing argument for pretty much every outcome, people will be betting on it because of the two teams involved but it looks a tough one to me. I would say under 3 goals looks decent but the odds are crap, wouldn't fancy both teams to score given Bayern's unbelievable defensive start and the cagey opening hour Mancini is likely to play. I fancy Bayern to be honest, but not enough to bet on them.

[ValueHunter]

I can't find much value among the CL fixtures this week, I also believe that City worth a punt at these odds. Anyway I decided to back four draws this week in games that I consider as tight affairs and teams are pretty even. CSKA Moscow v Inter Draw @3.30 Bayern Munich v Man City Draw @3.75 Valencia v Chelsea Draw @ 3.30 Marseille v Dortmund Draw @ 3.25 I'll put minimum stakes on singles, doubles, trebles and four fold. Bet taken with Bet365, I guess you might find better prices with other bokies. Some short reasonings: CSKA v Inter Moscow has always been hard place to go, Inter desperately needs to win this one as they started in a terrible way losing to Trabzonspor at home. But as I mentioned they will miss several important players in the likes of Snejder, Stankovic, Motta, Maicon and Forlan. CSKA Moscow showed some great spirit against Lille in France when they were 2 goals down but managed to take a point. Russians have some quality players, most of them with some experience in CL from previous seasons. Bayern v City A lot has been said about this game. Bayern with some impressive record but I don't think City are doing worse so far. Price of 3.75 is a pure value if you ask me considering there is not much difference between those two in terms of quality. Valencia v Chelsea After the great game against Barca Valencia disappointed their fans with absolutely apathetic game against Sevilla, obviously looking ahead to Chelsea. Soldado, Canales and Pablo Hernandez were rested, Alba was suspended. I expect Emeri to field pretty much the same XI that he chose for Barca game except for Albelda who is injured. Alba and Mathieu will probably start on the left wing, Miguel and Pablo Hernandez on the right wing, Ruiz and Rami in the CB, Banega, Canales in the midfield along with Maduro may be who will step in instead of Albelda, and Soldado up front. I think both teams will be happy with the draw here since this is the most important clash in the group and neither of them will risk to much as losing might get them into a trouble. Marseille v Dortmund Those two didn't start the season in their domestic leagues in the best way. However Marseille nicked 1-0 win on the road against Olympiacos and will enter this clash in a better position. Dortmund outplayed Arsenal in the first fixture IMO but still they should be happy with the draw coming in the late minutes with Perisic's fantastic equalizer. Germans show a lot of enthusiasm, they have some young quality players in the likes of Gotze, Kagawa, Gundogan etc which in my opinion are slightly better than the French lads. However Marseille and their coach Deschamps already have enough experience in CL and we often see them having some close and tight games, take for example their home game against United last year when they held a goalless draw.

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Again' date=' it's all about context. Villarreal played in the Europa League last season where they faced the likes of Salonika, Dinamo Zagreb and Bruges. Is it really worth judging a side based on "form" versus opposition that is of much lesser quality. The season before that they were in the Europa league as well, and were beaten by Salzburg at home and faced similar weak sides. Munich are no different. Why base any bet on form versus weaker opposition :unsure [/quote'] Fair point about some of Villarreal's opponents - however they also beat Porto, Twente and Napoli at home ;). I haven't been particularly impressed when I've seen Villarreal play, but their home record in Europe is outstanding. I just see the manner of Bayern's win there as some sort of measure of Bayern's CL quality - compare it with City's disappointing show against Napoli (although I think Napoli are superior to Villarreal). My point is I think Bayern this season will match up pretty well against the best sides in Europe, and they shouldn't be written down because the Bundesliga is below the standard of the English Premier League. They comfortably beat Zurich home and away in the play-off round - so far they've won three out of three games in Europe this season without conceding a goal. City will probably be their toughest European game so far though. Agree with this - I think it will be a cautious affair rather than a gung-ho attacking one. Remember it's a group game - the priority will be getting enough points from the 6 games to qualify from the group. I might be talking Bayern up too much - I've seen them play a few times this season and been impressed - it's easy to fall in love with a team and start believing they can't be beaten, but I'm sure they can. Bayern's three CL results so far: 1-0, 2-0, 2-0. City's one CL result so far: 1-1. Those numbers suggest Tuesday's game is more likely to be unders rather than overs. Under 2.5 goals @ 2.05 with Victor Chandler looks like good value to me.

[sunbf48on]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September Trabzonspor v Lille Draw at 3.3 Skybet, Both teams to score at 1.91 Blue Square. If I must be honest I dont know a great deal about the Turkish sides but but looking into form it lloks like Trabzonspor have not started off to the season as they would of liked compared to last season which could be said the same about Lille. I know it is early in the turkish season but in the Trabzonspor games so far 75% of thier games both teams have scored. Lille have drew half of their league games so far this season and last year drew 8 away games in the league, also against the top 12 teams last year they drew 8 out of the 11 games, (these being the away games) and 10 of these games with both teams scoring suggesting that they dont do great against the better sides in the league away from home. This season is much of the same as both teams have scored in 7 out of the 8 fictures in the league so far and both teams have scored in all of Lilles away fixtures. Napoli v Villarreal Napoli at 1.8 Boylesports Napoli have had an ok start to their season and with a good win against AC Milan at home and a good point away from home in the CL against Man City and they are also a strong side at home. This selection is more on Villarreals poor start to the season losing 2 games away from home and a decent point at Bilbao. Villarreals away form has never been great as they lost to 6 top 9 teams in the league last year and ths is enough for me to put money on a Napoli win. A little help would be appreciated as I have a £25 free bet and was thinking of putting it on Benfica, Man U, Real Madrid, AC Milan, Arsneal & Barcelona which returns £87 any reasons for not selecting these teams would be much appreciated, Thanks

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September (re. Bayern v City)

I would say under 3 goals looks decent but the odds are crap

You can get 2.05 on under 2.5 - you call those odds crap? ;)

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

First thoughts: Otelul vs. Benfica Bet of the week for me. No way Otelul has even the smallest chance here. They were champions in Romania last year but since then, they didn't accomplish much else. No important transfers or individuals bought to improve their squad; The club is relying too much on their coach Dorinel Munteanu who took this team flying so high but without investing I don't see him keeping the squad at this level anymore. Proof is their poor start of the season, losing points to newly promoted teams and now they are placed on 8th with only 6 goals scored so far. They playing from three to three days in League 1, Cup and Europe and for a team which is no level for Europe, the players will not be fit and ready for taking a giant as Benfica. After drawing to Manchester United ( A good result IMO ) I expect Benfica to put out a strong squad and grab all three points here in Romania without any emotions. I think Benfica will win by 2 or 3 goals tomorrow. Don't see Otelul getting any points from this group, maybe just from the encounter with Basel at their home ground but that will be pointless. Don't know exact squad which benfica will take to Romania to face Otelul but if they going to get the win and take it very seriously even if Otelul is underdogs I'm pretty sure we will see an away win. Odds will drop until tomorrow I think so as fast as we have a team news skeleton we shall go for Benfica. If I would have 10.000 Euros I would bet all of them on Benfica that confident I am, something which I would probably never do again xD Away Win is priced at 1,50 - 1,55 and Away -1 is @ 2,33.

Looks good Re. Otelul's Romanian league form, I see they are 2 points below Vaslui, who drew 2-2 away to Lazio in the Europa League - http://www.soccerway.com/national/romania/liga-i/2011-2012/regular-season/ Taking this into account, are you still confident that Benfica will beat Otelul?

[HastGill1]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

(re. Bayern v City) You can get 2.05 on under 2.5 - you call those odds crap? ;)

Well I wouldn't call them brilliant, but then I didn't discuss betiing on under 2.5 goals, I said under 3 goals which is 1.55. Under 2.5 is too risky for me, too much attacking talent on show to be confident in that pick I would want 3 goal cover.. Could we have a week amnesty on you using the winking face Louis, maybe its only me, but it drives me fcuking mad..no offence like.

[Alexc]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Well I wouldn't call them brilliant, but then I didn't discuss betiing on under 2.5 goals, I said under 3 goals which is 1.55. Under 2.5 is too risky for me, too much attacking talent on show to be confident in that pick I would want 3 goal cover.. Could we have a week amnesty on you using the winking face Louis, maybe its only me, but it drives me fcuking mad..no offence like.

:lol

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Could we have a week amnesty on you using the winking face Louis' date=' maybe its only me, but it drives me fcuking mad..no offence like.[/quote'] Yeah - no problem mate ;)

[Alexc]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Inter Milan @ 2.05 (0AH) Pinnacle From the first glance it looks like CSKA is overpriced here. These kind of odds I was expecting to see when CSKA was playing in the beginning of the season and Gasperini would be still the coach for Inter. But at this moment situation is different. CSKA has only 2 wins in 9 games. One of the wins was against TomTomsk who are one of the weakest sides in Russian premier league and the other was in the last game against V. Novgorod when they were able to show dominance only when Novgorod was playing with ten men (take in mind that Novgorod played 120 min already on Wednesday). In the first CHL group game against Lile they were very, very lucky to get that draw... Lille completely dominated the game but at the end they conceded because of sleepy defense. Now they have lost their top position in league and there are already some dark clouds over Leonid Slutsky's head, though the last win gave him little bit room for breathing. And of course those neverending injury problems for CSKA doesn't make the things easier for them. As for Inter I think they will get back on a track. Ranieri was one of the best options what they could get and I am pretty sure he will change the tactics and solve their defence problems. Cannot say that they were impressive against Bologna, but they played Ok and got 3 points well deserved, though defense at times looked shaky. What is more important, they finally got a win.... that should give them some confidence back. Not gonna say that Inter will trash them but a tight fight is what i expect ( under an option ?! ) and imo Inter will sneak a win here. Odds are not so bad for the team who is on a way up.

Haven't personally decided if I'll DNB or lay, but I really do like Inter here, regardless of their absences. Back four is solid enough, and Zanetti, Cambiasso and Obi is a good midfield. Milito and Pazzini pack a sound enough threat in what should be a tight game. CSKA had a very good comeback in Lille, but I think they'll struggle a bit here.

[Dylan]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September CSKA vs Inter – over 2.5 goals 2.20 at Ladbrokes (3/10) Have to fancy the overs in this match. Inter need to win this match to get their Champions League campaign up and running as well as to help to build on the momentum that came with the win over Bologna at the weekend, so will have to have an attacking mindset. Whilst it wasn’t an excellent performance against Bologna it was much improved and they were able to sustain periods of attacking pressure in the game despite missing the likes of Sneijder and Maicon. The only enforced change from that match will be Forlan but he’s struggling to settle in and Milito may have been Ranieri’s preffered option in this match anyway, so I think as they did at the weekend they will be able to create chances for themselves. However Inters worse area is defence, and for all their attacking pressure against Bologna they still looked shaky in defence. Nagotomo, Chivu and Samuel were all caused problems by Di Vaio in the match and he was often able to find space in behind them. I don’t know much about CSKA but with the likes of Doumbia and Love in the team they should be able to exploit these weaknesses in Inters defence. :hope

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Napoli v Villarreal Napoli at 1.8 Boylesports Napoli have had an ok start to their season and with a good win against AC Milan at home and a good point away from home in the CL against Man City and they are also a strong side at home. This selection is more on Villarreals poor start to the season losing 2 games away from home and a decent point at Bilbao. Villarreals away form has never been great as they lost to 6 top 9 teams in the league last year and ths is enough for me to put money on a Napoli win. A little help would be appreciated as I have a £25 free bet and was thinking of putting it on Benfica, Man U, Real Madrid, AC Milan, Arsneal & Barcelona which returns £87 any reasons for not selecting these teams would be much appreciated, Thanks

I was looking at this thinking Napoli would be good value, but I noticed Villarreal's away record in Europe isn't that bad - recently anyway. Last season in the Europa League, they drew 0-0 away to Napoli, won at Bayer Leverkusen, Twente and Club Brugge ... http://www.soccerway.com/teams/spain/villarreal-club-de-futbol/ Regarding the £25 free bet, why do you have to put it on a multiple - why not a single? I thing when betting on a multi, it's easy to get blinded by the huge potential win and forget about whether the individual bets are good value or not. I would just work out which one was best value, and put the £25 on that :)

[ultravires]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September Yeah I like Napoli's chances in this match. I don't think there is mad value in the price though but that's up for debate I suppose. I think Napoli are the stronger side and at home they are pretty powerful. As for Inter, my instinct says that they are in for a tough match. The midfield is depleted. Cambiasso, JZ and Obi is not great by any means. None of them are great defensive shields anymore and only Obi has pace. Added to the fact that Alvarez will be in the hole, it's pretty questionable overall. The back 4 will help them a lot but I don't think they have the necessary weapons to really go out and win this match. Unfortunately, I don't know much about CSKA to compare the strength's and weaknesses of the two sides. I can just see this being a draw that neither side would be upset with.

[Zacharael]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Looks good Re. Otelul's Romanian league form, I see they are 2 points below Vaslui, who drew 2-2 away to Lazio in the Europa League - http://www.soccerway.com/national/romania/liga-i/2011-2012/regular-season/ Taking this into account, are you still confident that Benfica will beat Otelul?

Vaslui started bad but they picked up form and they are playing good now plus they have quality players all along on their squad with good attacking midfields and forwards. Otelul is same team as they were 2-3 season ago with few changes and they don't seem to want to invest too much. The picked some points against weaker teams but also drew or lost against weak teams and lost in encounters versus quality opposition. CFR beat them 2 rounds ago 4:0 on their own ground and Otelul didn't play anything at all CFR dominating all the game. It could have probably been 6:0 or 7:0 if they would have been more lucky. Otelul's defenders are slow and playing against a team with fast forwards and creativity I don't see them being able to defend during the entire game. Also, for your comparison, Vaslui had to go through qualifying rounds to get to play against Lazio while Otelul is here just becuz they managed to get the title when no one was expecting and paying much attention to them. I'm from Romania and I followed some of the teams from here and at the moment Vaslui is much above Otelul's quality. Portuguese soccer is class above Romanian one and we are talking of Benfica, one of the strongest sides in Portugal. As I said earlier, unless Benfica takes a weak side to Romania I don't see any surprise happening.

[Desert]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September What do u think about both to score in the Bayern and Real game? Of course Bayern started this season very good and didn't cencede a single goal except the 0-1 against Gladbach but then they didn't conced any! But most Bundesligateams dont have the power to challenge Bayern and Villareal was so bad too. But now Man City with their mega offence will face Munich. They started bad in CL, just a 1-1 against Napoli, because they took it too easy, but now they will give everything. I am pretty sure that Bayern will concede their 2nd or maybe more than 2 goals against City. Odds are 1,72. Reals defence is not good as last season. They make a lot of mistakes. Especially at home where they have to make the game, then their defence is unsorted if they switch to offence. Getafe and Rayo scored twice against Real! And of course Ajax is much better than this two. Odds are around ~1,85. Really good. Someone has more infos? But i am worried because Ajax didnt score against Lyon at home :unsure Another nice bet is ManU Over 2,5 Teamgoals @1,85. I can see here a 3-0 or higher homewin. ManU is allmost unbeatable in its fort! And they can score easily against every opponent in the world at least 3-4 goals. They won easily against Chelsea with 3-1 and Rooney is in hot form. And who is Basel? Not to comapre with Chelsea! Anyone know if Rooney will play? Bet365 doesn't have him in the goalscorer list!

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September (Re. Otelul v Benfica)

I'm from Romania and I followed some of the teams from here and at the moment Vaslui is much above Otelul's quality. Portuguese soccer is class above Romanian one and we are talking of Benfica, one of the strongest sides in Portugal. As I said earlier, unless Benfica takes a weak side to Romania I don't see any surprise happening.

Thanks for the information Zacharael. It looks set up for a Benfica win. I know Benfica have a lot of quality, and they drew 2-2 at Porto recently. The Benfica coach just worries me a bit when he says: "There are top sides such as Manchester United and others like Oţelul ... I know we've conceded at least one goal in our last [four] matches, but they were against strong teams." http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2012/matches/round=2000263/match=2007590/prematch/preview/index.html Is he in danger of under-estimating them? Or perhaps motivating them if they see these remarks as a bit dis-respectful?

[H1]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September Real & Arsenal I think that both teams will record comprehensive victories this round. Real Madrid will host young and inexperienced Ajax side, who will most likely defend from the beginning. I dont think it will take much time before Real players break them, especially that their morale will be high after beating Vallecano. Madrid do not miss any important players ans should score a few, as they are always hungry for goals. I hope that the bad period is finally over for Arsenal. They looked very good against Bolton and showed their style again at times. Most importantly, they kept a clean sheet. They face Olympiakos who traditionally struggles in Europe away from home. If the Gunners break them down quickly, we may see a true thrashing and another boost for Wenger's guys. Arsenal & Real both to score >1.5 @1.88 10/10 pts Arsenal & Real both to score >2.5 @4.71 10/10 pts Arsenal & Real both to score >3.5 @17.88 4/10 pts Arsenal & Real both to score >4.5 @78 1/10 pts with bet 365 25 pts invested, let's see what the outcome is :hope

[Zacharael]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

(Re. Otelul v Benfica) Thanks for the information Zacharael. It looks set up for a Benfica win. I know Benfica have a lot of quality, and they drew 2-2 at Porto recently. The Benfica coach just worries me a bit when he says: "There are top sides such as Manchester United and others like Oţelul ... I know we've conceded at least one goal in our last [four] matches, but they were against strong teams." http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2012/matches/round=2000263/match=2007590/prematch/preview/index.html Is he in danger of under-estimating them? Or perhaps motivating them if they see these remarks as a bit dis-respectful?

I hope not. Most probably Manchester will take 1st spot in the group so hopefully Benfica's coach will take the game seriously and grab all three points from encounters like this. I'm not worried about Otelul's putting in a good performance to match Benfica, I'm probably more worried about Benfica's approach to this game. But if they come here to win, they have all reasons to do so.

[Alexc]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

(Re. Otelul v Benfica) Thanks for the information Zacharael. It looks set up for a Benfica win. I know Benfica have a lot of quality, and they drew 2-2 at Porto recently. The Benfica coach just worries me a bit when he says: "There are top sides such as Manchester United and others like Oţelul ... I know we've conceded at least one goal in our last [four] matches, but they were against strong teams." http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2012/matches/round=2000263/match=2007590/prematch/preview/index.html Is he in danger of under-estimating them? Or perhaps motivating them if they see these remarks as a bit dis-respectful?

Benfica coach is a bit delusional, ain't he. Certainly think he's taking a bit too much pride in drawing with United's second team.

[ginhovski]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September Otelul vs Benfica 27.09.2011

Pick: Benfica -1

Odds: 1,86(Sbobet)

Confidence: 3/10

Huge diference here. Benfica playing well and motivated after the draw against champion Porto house (2-2). They are first on league (with Braga and Porto), have the best attack on league (15goals) and in my opinion are playing the best football of Portuguese league. They have the similar structure of next season but with new value players like Artur, Garay, Wittsel and Nolito and all the team available for this match. Great game against powerful Manchester United on first round (the victory was close) and some experience on this competition (2^nd consecutive year) give them the favoritism for this game.

Otelul couldn´t fight with them. This surprised last year Romenia champion is making a poor start of season (10^th place) and already lost with powerful teams (0-4 with Cluj and 2-1 with Dinamo Bucaresti), and also in Champions first round with Basileia(2-1). Another problem for them is that the game will be played not in their own stadium in Galati where they have a great atmosphere but in Bucarest, coupled with absolutely none experience on Champions League, I think Benfica wins easy here, making their first away victory on Champions League games since 2007. Dimension and qualitity of teams are incomparable, and Benfica´s history with Romenia teams is on their side too.

[nicko]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

This is a tricky game to bet on' date=' but those odds are just too damn appealing to miss them. Basically oddsmakers are giving City a 25% chance of winning.... with all due respect for Bayern , that is just crazy. The bottom line here is..... this is Champions League - [b']anybody can win anybody. And ManCity is definitely capable to do that. Pure value bet for me.

Anybody can not win anybody! Can't agree with that as a good reason to back Man City in Munich... Selection, physical condition, ambitions, anything, but ''This is CL and anybody can beat anybody'' is no good, I am sorry. If that is the case then why do we see an elite group of teams winning CL all the time? Last time I remember an absolute outsider making it to the Final and winning it was Steaua Bucurest, beating Barca on penalties in Sevilla. Samp made it in their glory days, so did Leverkusen, Dinamo Kiev ( if I remember well were close to the top, and that's about it...City are not yet part of that elite, they have a mountain to climb to get there ( or spend another 100 million ), plus get a real top-Manager. IMO City walking out of Allianz Arena with 3 points will be a surprise. Not that I mind - along with Inter, Real and AC Milan, Bayern are on top of my hate-list as a fan. So far what I see is not a CL-winner material, City grow too fast and rather sooner than later will get burnt - this game is their biggest test they had so far in Europe. The Manager they have hasn't done enough in Europe, the players ( although most with great experience ) need more time and games together in CL before they are backable vs teams the size of Munich. Bayern are beaming confidence - as dangerous as ever forward, and with major improvement at the back. A draw - maybe, with a compact approach...But a win? Wish you luck, no bet for me, but if forced to stake, I would rather back Bayern to beat the - 1 H'cap instead of backing a City win...

[nicko]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

I do agree that Bayern should be favorites in this one, but would you give them more than 50% chance of winning (oddsmakers odds) ?! Personally I wouldn't. If Bayern will win, I will have no regret that I took a bet on City. This is just value bet. And as we know - value does not always win. It will pay out over the very long term.

With this one I fully agree! :ok That is a good point, regardless of the fact that I still think Bayern will win... Need to see the Card Line on this game though, at least 2-3 ''hot heads'' at both ends, plus a tight game IMO.

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September Here's a new idea. I am trying to evaluate and compare some possible value bets I have shortlisted on tonight's games. For ease of comparison, I have tried to find bets that are approximately evens (2.0). Here are three bets I have listed for tonight that I think are good value: Bet 1 Bayern Munich v Man City Under 2.5 goals 2.1 I see this is a tight defensive game with both sides setting out not to lose, particularly Man City. Both have good attacks and solid defences, and in this game I think they will put their defences first. So I think it's likely there will be fewer than 2.5 goals, and the odds of 2.1 are good value. All four of these two teams Champions League games so far have been under 2.5 goals (Bayern wins by 1-0, 2-0 and 2-0 and City a 1-1 draw) and I don't see this one being different. Bet 2 Otelul v Benfica Otelul AH +1.0 2.075 Benfica are a class above Otelul. But Benfica have yet to convince me that they have more than a talented collection of players. I think their manager may be under-estimating the Romanian side Otelul, and the odds on Otelul seem too low. In contrast to Porto, Benfica have done nothing in Europe in the last few years. They seem to have that air of vulnerability about them. The AH +1.0 bet above means if Otelul win or draw, it wins, if Benfica win by 2 goals it loses, and if Benfica win by 1 goal it is void. Bet 3 Trabzonspor v Lille Lille AH 0 1.825 I feel Lille should be slightly shorter odds for this against the Turkish side. After the first games, Lille need a win more than Trabzonspor. (Lille drew at home to CSKA Moscow, and Trabzonspor got a suprise win at Inter Milan). As far as I can see, French sides have a good record against Turkish ones, and I think Lille may have a bit too much for Trabzonspor. AH 0 is the same as draw no bet. All odds are with Bet 365 Here are the three bets above again: Bet 1 Bayern Munich v Man City Under 2.5 goals @ 2.1 Bet 2 Otelul v Benfica Otelul AH +1.0 @ 2.075 Bet 3 Trabzonspor v Lille Lille AH 0 @ 1.825 I would be interested in any comments on these bets, and particularly which of the three bets you think is best value. All feedback welcome :)

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Yeah I like Napoli's chances in this match. I don't think there is mad value in the price though but that's up for debate I suppose. I think Napoli are the stronger side and at home they are pretty powerful. As for Inter, my instinct says that they are in for a tough match. The midfield is depleted. Cambiasso, JZ and Obi is not great by any means. None of them are great defensive shields anymore and only Obi has pace. Added to the fact that Alvarez will be in the hole, it's pretty questionable overall. The back 4 will help them a lot but I don't think they have the necessary weapons to really go out and win this match. Unfortunately, I don't know much about CSKA to compare the strength's and weaknesses of the two sides. I can just see this being a draw that neither side would be upset with.

Don't think it is true as far as Inter is concerned. Having 1 point after 2 games is not something that they will be happy with.

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Another nice bet is ManU Over 2,5 Teamgoals @1,85. I can see here a 3-0 or higher homewin. ManU is allmost unbeatable in its fort! And they can score easily against every opponent in the world at least 3-4 goals. They won easily against Chelsea with 3-1 and Rooney is in hot form. And who is Basel? Not to comapre with Chelsea! Anyone know if Rooney will play? Bet365 doesn't have him in the goalscorer list!

Odds are not so good for that IMO. Fergusson often rotates the squad and I quite often when someone expects United to score a lot they only win narrowly 1-0 or 2-0. Both Rooney and Hernandez will miss this game, so most likely it will be Berbatov and Owen/Wellbeck up front.

[Zacharael]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Here are the three bets above again: Bet 1 Bayern Munich v Man City Under 2.5 goals @ 2.1 Bet 2 Otelul v Benfica Otelul AH +1.0 @ 2.075 Bet 3 Trabzonspor v Lille Lille AH 0 @ 1.825 I would be interested in any comments on these bets, and particularly which of the three bets you think is best value. All feedback welcome :)

I think Bet 3 has best chances at the moment. Burak Yilmaz, probably the most dangerous man in the Turkish side is missing through suspension while coach also sits out becuz of a touch-line ban. IMO Trabzonspor will be happy with 4 points from first 2 rounds while Lille will run out and try to grab the win.

[Zacharael]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Otelul Galati vs. Benfica

As posted yesterday, I'll stick to my thoughts. Benfica is still at 1,55 so I'll take it. What I was most worried about this game was about Benfica's approach to this encounter, but it seems Jesus is not taking Otelul lightly and will come here to Romania to grab all three points. The coach said in an interview that they have same concentration as they had with Manchester United, with defender Garay adding that they trained and prepared for this game with commitment and without taking into consideration the fact that Otelul are debutants. The game will not be played on Otelul's home ground, but instead they will play on National Arena in Bucharest. National Arena has alot more seats than what otelul has, but I personally don't expect way too many people to go to the stadium to support Otelul or watch their game. otelul is probably playing the most un-attractive football at the moment and personally, if it would be for me to go to the stadium I'd probably go there to watch Benfica's play. Coach Dorinel Munteanu is missing main defender on the left, Sălăgean being suspended while right defender Rapa will be doubtful coming after an injury ( wasn't involved in last 3 games of Otelul's ) and even if he starts tonight he might not be fully fit for an opponent like Benfica. There are problems at the Romanian club, both at administrative level and also between players. The Romanian champions are going very bad and I don't see them being a real threat to the title this season. Winning the title it was a surprise to everyone, and most of the opponents in Romania didn't take them seriously and by the time they realized otelul is in top of the table it was too late to out-run them. They didn't invest much and they sticked to same team they had 2-3 seasons ago with maybe few changes. Some might think that is a good thing becuz the team is homogenous, but in fact they don't have any individual to make the difference on the field. Maybe most dangerous man on their squad is Antal, a player which already Jesus has him in his eyes and probably won't do much tonight and will be closed down most of the time by the Portuguese side. Benfica is doing better and better from a season to another and they proved it by drawing at Porto 2:2 in last game. They playing awesome and attacking soccer, attracting and scoring many goals. With Cardozo up-front, Gaitán, Aimar, Nolito at the back I see real threat and more than two goals scored by Benfica, most probably they gonna take the lead by half-time. Otelul's defenders are slow and won't be at the same level as the fire-power Benfica will have for this game. Selection: Benfica @ 1,55 - Stake: 10/10 Selection: Benfica -1 AH @ 1,82 - Stake: 10/10

[AGurv]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September International Soccer 2011 Overall 15W-9L-5P +3.72 units (62.50%) CSKA Pick -135 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Russian teams can be tough at home in these European matches. Some of the wildest fans in Europe are in Russia and they take there teams very seriously. Inter has struggled in domestic play early, I expect that continue here.

[mad_men]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 27 September

Anybody can not win anybody! Can't agree with that as a good reason to back Man City in Munich... Selection, physical condition, ambitions, anything, but ''This is CL and anybody can beat anybody'' is no good, I am sorry. If that is the case then why do we see an elite group of teams winning CL all the time? Last time I remember an absolute outsider making it to the Final and winning it was Steaua Bucurest, beating Barca on penalties in Sevilla. Samp made it in their glory days, so did Leverkusen, Dinamo Kiev ( if I remember well were close to the top, and that's about it...City are not yet part of that elite, they have a mountain to climb to get there ( or spend another 100 million ), plus get a real top-Manager. IMO City walking out of Allianz Arena with 3 points will be a surprise. Not that I mind - along with Inter, Real and AC Milan, Bayern are on top of my hate-list as a fan. So far what I see is not a CL-winner material, City grow too fast and rather sooner than later will get burnt - this game is their biggest test they had so far in Europe. The Manager they have hasn't done enough in Europe, the players ( although most with great experience ) need more time and games together in CL before they are backable vs teams the size of Munich. Bayern are beaming confidence - as dangerous as ever forward, and with major improvement at the back. A draw - maybe, with a compact approach...But a win? Wish you luck, no bet for me, but if forced to stake, I would rather back Bayern to beat the - 1 H'cap instead of backing a City win...

I think you missed my point nicko. What I wanted to say is that in CHL history we have seen many times when some big underdogs wins/draw the game against top english/spain/german teams. And ManCity isn't acutally some underdog type of team right now ;) Besides that - this is only one game. In 90 minutes of play you can be lucky and you can be very unlucky. This is not some kind of ''best from 3 or 4 games''....the final result will not always show who is the better team. And my bet wasn't based that the ball is round so anything can happen. It was based on that oddsmakers have underestimated ManCity chances..... oddsmakers mistake, thats all. I am not comparing which team has better players... they both have excelent ones. If I would see [email protected] I would go with Bayern, but 1.95..... no fckin way.