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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 11.00 Meydan Banna Boirche ... bet to follow in the morning when prices are available I was going to stay away from this race as there are 3 horses in the race that I have already backed at this year’s festival and this looks like the most competitive race of the day. However, I do like the look of Banna Boirche here so I am going to have a small bet on him. Banna Boirche ran at last year’s festival where he ran pretty well on his last 2 starts. He finished 4th in a handicap over 7f off 106 and then bettered that with a 5th in group 3 company over CD. He finished just over 3 lengths behind the 117 rated Mendip which is very good form. He has come back this year to try again and is rated 4lbs lower on 102. I think like last year he needed his first run, but still ran well enough. The form of that race is working out well with the winner City Style pushing Musir hard in group 2 company, Tamaathul finishing 3rd next time out and Quick Wit winning next time up. On his last start he finished 5th behind the impressive Mutahadee but again was staying on well. Reading back at my selections previous race’s there seems to be a common theme of “never near to challenge” or “nearest at finish”. He is quite often slowly away but it doesn’t matter too much with him as he is a hold up horse. He is well drawn in 7 for this race so should be able to get a good midfield sit and Ryan Moore takes the ride. The trainer has 2 in the race and Shane Foley has decided to ride Hujaleya which was my BBOTD when he finished 3rd last time out. This has opened the door for Ryan Moore to ride my selection which I think gives him a better chance. The only thing putting me off Hujaleya in this race is the fact they are switching surfaces with him. He is consistent on the turf and ran a great race to finish 3rd last time out so I don’t see why they are switching surfaces with him. Same happened with Internationaldebut and he bombed out with they tried him on the Tapeta. Similar comments can be made over Dandy Boy who is another horse I have backed at this year’s festival. His best runs at Meydan have come on turf and he ran very poorly on his only previous try on the Tapeta. The other horse that I have already backed is Reem and unlike the other 2, he loves this surface. He was disappointing a couple of runs ago but showed much better form to finish 3rd in group company last time out. He drops back into handicaps and is better drawn today but I feel he still may be a little high in the weights. Of the remainders I would expect a much better run from Red Gulch today and also first reserve Maraheb looks set to run a big race after getting into the race due to a couple coming out. The only other one I have considered is Zanzamar but he has the services of Richard Hills and likes to be held up in midfield so I would give that one very little chance! This is a very open race and I would not be best pleased if one of my previous bets were to win this. Of the 3 I think Hujaleya would tempt me most, even on this different surface but I am happy to go with his stable mate. Banna Boirche gets the services of Ryan Moore which I think could make a massive difference. Shane Foley is an OK jockey but Ryan Moore is one of the best around for me. So strong in the saddle and I reckon he will get a good tune out of Banna Boirche. Anything around 10/1 in the morning would be nice.

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 11.00 Meydan Banna Boirche 1pt EW @ 9/1 Ladbrokes Taken the first price on offer as I don't expect it to be much different with everyone else. Very open race with them going 9/2 the field. Gamilati has opened up 5/6 which is very appealing. Closest rival is the other Godolphin horse but I think Gamilati will prove much the best. Another impressive win in this pays a huge compliment to Discourse. Depending on how the morning goes in Meydan, I might have a little go on Raimond Ridge at Lingfield. Fingers crossed for a good day... Good luck everyone!

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

12.45 Meydan Monsieur Joe 1.5pts EW @ 8/1 Ladbrokes Wrote this about him last time out..... Same applies for this race but William Buick takes the ride on him today which is a plus. He hasn't had many winners over in Dubai but had 1 the other day at Jebel Ali. Monsieur Joe is bred by the Aussie speed-ball Choisir and I expect him to improve on his current rating of 100 sooner rather than later. He is a 5 year old and there should be plenty of improvement in him. He is an out and out 5f horse which can't be said for a few of his main opposition here. He is drawn in 6 which doesn't really make a difference but like last time out he will require some luck during the race to get a clear passage through. If Buick can steer him out of trouble then I can see him going very close. Been looking forward to him running again so hopefully he will run well.
Pleased to have kept the faith with this horse. Just got up to win and ensures a profit for the day with 2 to come. Is it just me or does the turf at Meydan seem quite long. I don't know what the time was for that race but it looked very slow
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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Good shout cpo. Being the Meydan expert, what do you think of Glen's Diamonds chances in the last? I'm hoovering over having an ew on him at 11/2. I keep going back to his run at Chester when he looked a very serious horse to me. Pulled very hard lto after a break so think he's better than that run.

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

1.25 Meydan Hitchens 4pts win @ 5/1 Ladbrokes This is a tough looking group 3 on the Tapeta over 6f but I like the David Barron horse here. David Barron is a trainer I do follow and always pay interest to his runners. He has a few runners over at the carnival this year and they have all ran well so far. Hitchens ran a cracker on his debut in Meydan over CD and was just edged out by the re-opposing Captain Obvious. In that race Hitchens got shuffled back in the race further than he would like and the rider also dropped his whip. I am not saying he would have won but I think events conspired against him that day and he could have got much closer. He meets his conqueror that day on identical terms in this race but I expect a big run from Hitchens. He isn’t very well drawn in 9 but there looks to be plenty of hold-up types in the race so he might be able to tack across and sit in behind the front runners. Hitchens arguably has the best form on show in this race with his 3rd in the Darley July Cup behind Bated Breath and Dream Ahead. He is also a group 3 winner and has regularly run well on the all weather back in the UK. I have no problems with him on this surface, as he proved last time out that he handles it. I think with that run under his belt he can turn the form around with Captain Obvious. Silvestre De Sousa rides him again and he felt that Captain Obvious got first run on him last time out so I would expect the jockey to follow that one round. Captain Obvious is rightfully the favourite after winning last time out and his trainer is in unbelievable form at the carnival. Alo Pura looked unlucky in that race and he can get closer in this but I think he is reliant on a strong pace and luck in running which he may not get. Krypton Factor was an impressive winner last time out in a handicap and he is the most likely pacesetter with him being drawn well in 3. Angel’s Pursuit looks set to run a big race and Sir Reginald ran an eye catching race last time out. He travelled extremely well in his last race but was set far too much to do by Jamie Spencer. Paul Hanagan takes the ride for this race and he looks a big threat after proving his ability is still there. The only other horse I would consider is Rerouted who drops back in trip for Mike De Kock. Twice he was used as a pace-maker for the mighty Frankel last year but he himself has plenty of talent. He is a group 3 winner and it would not be the biggest surprise if he were to run well. Even though I do tend to follow this stable, I think Hitchens has an excellent chance of taking this race. It would be a massive pay day for connections and I think the horse will be primed for a big run.
Silvestre De Sousa you ffin beauty! So pleased for connections :nana
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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

1.25 Meydan Hitchens 4pts win @ 5/1 Ladbrokes This is a tough looking group 3 on the Tapeta over 6f but I like the David Barron horse here. David Barron is a trainer I do follow and always pay interest to his runners. He has a few runners over at the carnival this year and they have all ran well so far. Hitchens ran a cracker on his debut in Meydan over CD and was just edged out by the re-opposing Captain Obvious. In that race Hitchens got shuffled back in the race further than he would like and the rider also dropped his whip. I am not saying he would have won but I think events conspired against him that day and he could have got much closer. He meets his conqueror that day on identical terms in this race but I expect a big run from Hitchens. He isn’t very well drawn in 9 but there looks to be plenty of hold-up types in the race so he might be able to tack across and sit in behind the front runners. Hitchens arguably has the best form on show in this race with his 3rd in the Darley July Cup behind Bated Breath and Dream Ahead. He is also a group 3 winner and has regularly run well on the all weather back in the UK. I have no problems with him on this surface, as he proved last time out that he handles it. I think with that run under his belt he can turn the form around with Captain Obvious. Silvestre De Sousa rides him again and he felt that Captain Obvious got first run on him last time out so I would expect the jockey to follow that one round. Captain Obvious is rightfully the favourite after winning last time out and his trainer is in unbelievable form at the carnival. Alo Pura looked unlucky in that race and he can get closer in this but I think he is reliant on a strong pace and luck in running which he may not get. Krypton Factor was an impressive winner last time out in a handicap and he is the most likely pacesetter with him being drawn well in 3. Angel’s Pursuit looks set to run a big race and Sir Reginald ran an eye catching race last time out. He travelled extremely well in his last race but was set far too much to do by Jamie Spencer. Paul Hanagan takes the ride for this race and he looks a big threat after proving his ability is still there. The only other horse I would consider is Rerouted who drops back in trip for Mike De Kock. Twice he was used as a pace-maker for the mighty Frankel last year but he himself has plenty of talent. He is a group 3 winner and it would not be the biggest surprise if he were to run well. Even though I do tend to follow this stable, I think Hitchens has an excellent chance of taking this race. It would be a massive pay day for connections and I think the horse will be primed for a big run.
Wow that was close, hope it got up for you mate, no result in yet..
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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

Good shout cpo. Being the Meydan expert' date=' what do you think of Glen's Diamonds chances in the last? I'm hoovering over having an ew on him at 11/2. I keep going back to his run at Chester when he looked a very serious horse to me. Pulled very hard lto after a break so think he's better than that run.[/quote'] Lol I wouldn't say I was a Meydan expert but he looks to have every chance. I have backed Nanton in the race but that is probably due to him being one of my favourite horses. If I was to back something else in the race then it would be either Fox Hunt or Averroes. Probably Averroes as he is a decent price EW but I certainly wouldn't want to put you off backing the Fahey horse. That was his first run since returning from injury so for me I would watch him today.
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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

Well done cpo, two lovely winners today! Especially Hitchens was value no end at 5/1. And you were completely right about Reroutet. He ran very well. Came from so far off the pace but finished very strong. Definitely one to note. Good luck with Nanton in the last, big price but why not, can run a good race. I give Happy Valley a chance there...

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 2.25 Lingfield Raimond Ridge 2pts win @ 8/1 Bet365 This is this horses favourite track with 4 of his 5 career wins coming here. He hasn't won since the 5th March 2010 but he did win that day of 65. He has dropped a long way in the weights and gets in this race off 46. Dominic Fox also takes off a handy 3lbs which puts him over 20lbs lower than his last winning mark. I think he has slowly been coming to hand and he ran a good race last time out at Kempton. A return to this track will suit and hopefully he is ready to strike! Stable form is a worry with no wins from 18 runs in the last couple of weeks but I still think Raimond Ridge has a decent chance back at his beloved Lingfield.

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread A good day today with 2 winners from 5. Not the best of strike rates but a nice profit anyway. Banna Boirche didn't finish his race off as I would have thought and was always well positioned in the race. Probably just too competitive for him. Monsieur Joe did well to get up in his race and didn't suffer any trouble in running today. This is probably his level and I would expect to see him in a similar contest next time he runs. Hitchens was the star of the show today and just held off the battling Krypton Factor. I thought he might reverse the form with Captain Obvious and so it proved. Alo Pura ran another good race to finish 3rd but I am very happy that David Barron managed to scoop the massive amount of prize money on offer. Regretting putting up Nanton now as I did feel there were classier animals in the race. I don't really see him being good enough for the fesitval so it will be interesting to see what they do with him now. Fox Hunt ran out a comfortable winner in the end and he is going to be one to watch over staying trips this year. Raimond Ridge was the final horse I fancied today and even though he didn't even get placed, I still believe he is ready to strike. He was slowly away, met trouble in running and had to switch wide at the furlong pole but he made eye-catching late headway to finish like a train. One to watch out for over the same CD. +29pts today

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 3.00 Lingfield Lockantanks 2.5pts EW @ 7/1 VC Bet Having a look early for tomorrow as the other half is home for the weekend tonight so won’t be able to look at anything later on. One bet I think stands out tomorrow and I fancy having a max bet on him. I don’t have the balls to go straight win but I do think he will take plenty of beating. The horse in question is Lockantanks. I have backed him a couple of times recently and he has done me plenty of favours. He has won 3 of his last 5 races and showed last time out that he is still very much in form. That race came in a higher grade and was full of very decent animals. The race wasn’t run to suit but Lockantanks still ran a cracker to be beaten just over a length into 4th. A bigger field here should play to his strengths as he should get a decent pace to run at. He is a powerful traveller and has a good draw in 3. Even though he wasn’t beaten last time out, I still think there is improvement in him. He is an out and out miler and Lingfield suits him down to the ground. I think 7/1 is rather generous and I would have expected him to be favourite or at least closer to the head of the market. Prince of Burma takes a step up in grade and will find this much tougher than his couple of races. Amitola may be the pace angle in the race but I don’t see him being good enough. Numeral was a good winner last time out but he did get the run of the race that day and this is a step up in grade for him as well. He has been progressive since returning to the all weather and there could be more to come from him. Tarooq is the only other danger for me and he did manage to beat Lockantanks last time out. I expect my selection to turn the form around with that one here though as there should be a stronger pace in this race which will suit Lockantanks. To me Lockantanks is a stand out bet in this race. He is thriving at the moment and there should be more to come from him. Everything looks in place for him to run another good race tomorrow. He takes a drop in grade and I think he will take full advatange.

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 3.15 Wolverhampton Emmas’s Gift 1.5pts EW @ 14/1 Ladbrokes There are some good races on the all weather tomorrow and this looks pretty tasty. I think Emma’s Gift is a massive price here and I don’t really see why. Since being fit with blinkers in November, she has run well on all 4 starts finishing 2nd on 3 occasions and unseating last time out. In that race where she unseated, she looked very threatening in behind the eventual winner but just clipped heels as a gap closed on her. I am sure she would have been in the shake-up given how well she was travelling. If you compare that race to this one, that was a class 2 where this is a class 4 and the first 4 horses home that day are all rated in the 90’s. Emerald Wilderness who won the race has a very progressive look to him and that race gave him a hat-trick of wins. This race actually represents a big drop in class for Emma’s Gift and I have my doubts over the level of opposition. The current favourite has only had one run which came at Southwell but he did bolt up by 4 lengths. This however is a common occurrence on the fibresand at Southwell as some horses simply don’t handle it. Son Vida steps up in trip here but what worries me more with him is the fact he has been off the track for so long. He does run for Mark Johnston though, who is in great form at the moment so has to be respected. Mullins Way ran very well on his reappearance and looked unlucky. It is possible he is best caught fresh, so a watching brief advised with that one. Archie Rice is in the form of his life but is up again in the weights and this is tougher. Aquarian Spirit is chasing a hat-trick but only just won last time out and I have doubts over the trip with him. There are others that can be given some sort of a chance but I do think Emma’s Gift looks a big price. I don’t think her confidence will have been knocked by her unseating last time out as she didn’t appear to be too badly hampered. She looked as though she clipped heels and tripped. It looked much more painful for the jockey. Adam Beschizza was on her that day and he is the last jockey to have won on this horse. That win came at Ascot last year in a good handicap off a mark of 92. She is rated 80 for this race so she looks well handicapped judging on her turf form. I think the blinkers have made a big difference with her and if her little mishap hasn’t shaken her confidence, then I think she will run a good race dropped in grade.

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 3.35 Lingfield Layline 2pts win @ 8/1 Boylesports This horse had his first attempt at this trip last time out where he didn't run too badly behind Junoob. Junoob was the strong favourite that day and was favoured by the weights and was entitled to win it as he did. Layline is a fairly consistent horse on the all weather and his 2 career wins on the all weather have both come at this track. This time last year he won a handicap over 10f off a mark of 89 and then a few runs later won off 90 over a mile. Since winning that race he hasn't been in the best of form but his latest couple of runs suggest he is coming back to form. The stable are struggling for winners but their runners are running well enough. Art Scholar is the current favourite but he has had 3 runs at the track which have all been disappointing. I think he would prefer this race if it were at Kempton. Both Status Symbol and Cashlegar bring good turf form to the table but have to prove their current well-being so I think are best watched in this race. Exemplary drops back in trip from 2 mile which doesn't look certain to suit but he has the excellent Joe Fanning on board and I reckon he will try and make all on him. I don't think anything in the field can be completely discounted but the horses near the head of the market look to have the best chances. Layline runs off 85 here so is handicapped to win. This will only be his 2nd attempt over 12f and I hope it will be a successful one. Shane Kelly takes the ride which is a positive as he is one of the top jockeys at the track. He is drawn in 5 which doesn't really make much difference considering they are going 12f. He is a strong traveller and could improve for the step up in trip. He is only a 5 year old so there should be more to come from him, off what is a workable mark.

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Fair to say I have had a good couple of days. Lockantanks ran well enough today but again I thought he was unsuited by the way the race was run. Fair play to Fanning who give the David Barron horse a cracker from the front. Emma's Gift won nicely at Wolverhampton. She was always prominent and picked up really well in the home straight to win quite comfortably. The last selection won very nicely indeed. I thought he was a strong traveller but you I think you could have called him the winner from quite far out. He was always travelling well and was given an ice cool ride by Shane Kelly. Made a profit yesterday of 29pts and today I have made an even better profit of 42.2pts. Very happy with how things have started this year and I do think that actually puts the thread in profit now. +42.2pts from 3 bets

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Had an update of my stats and I am glad to say the thread is in an overall profit now. As you all are probably aware, I had an awful 2011 and give up on the thread for a while. A new approach to my bets and much more analysis and hard work has meant I have turned things around this year. In just over a month, I have made almost 130pts profit which is pleasing. Still a little annoyed that I backed Nanton the other day as I let my heart rule over my head and talked myself into putting the bet on. Still learning the game and very happy to be apart of this great forum. Massive thanks to BH who keeps us all in check and puts in so much hard work to make things more interesting with the various competitions. 2011 Bets – 80 Wins - 8 Placed – 5 Staked – 202.35 Returned – 106.83 Profit - -95.52pts 2012 Bets - 99 Wins - 18 Placed - 9 Staked - 264.00 Returned - 393.37 Profit - +129.37pts Overall Bets 179 Wins – 26 Placed – 14 Staked – 466.35 Returned – 500.2 Profit – +33.85

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 3.25 Punchestown Smoking Aces 1pt EW @ 10/1 Boylesports Hopefully the meeting will go ahead as there is some very good racing here tomorrow. The highlight is the clash between Big Zeb and Sizing Europe but Smoking Aces makes plenty of appeal to me in this race. He is unexposed over this sort of trip over fences and he looks to have improved for the fitting of blinkers. His form since returning from a break has been very consistent and he finished a good 3rd on his reappearance in a class 1 handicap chase over 2m 4f. He then finished 4th in the Cork National over this trip before winning at Fairyhouse over 3m 5f with the first time blinkers on. He then finished 11th in the Paddy Power Chase and was just 14 lengths behind the winner Cross Appeal. The ground that day was good to yielding and was probably a bit too quick for him. That was a Grade B race so he takes a drop in grade for this and the ground should be much more to his liking given his 4 career wins have come on soft or heavy ground. M P Walsh has rode the horse on his last few starts but he has chosen to ride the very much in form In Great Form. That means A P Heskin gets the ride and he takes off a very handy 5lbs. He is rated 123 for this race but the riders claim puts him on 118 which is just 1lb higher than when winning in this grade at Fairyhouse. There are far too many dangers to note but the obvious ones are Start Me Up, In Great Form and Up The Beat. Ruby Walsh rides Up The Beat and Willie Mullins took this race last year with Some Target. Up The Beat however has plenty of weight and he takes a big step up in trip, which is not certain to suit. Start Me Up also takes a step up in trip after finding the progressive Seabass too strong last time out. He too has plenty of weight and I am happy to oppose. I expect one of these 2 to go off favourite and favourites don’t have the best of records in this race with just 1 winner in the last 9 runnings. Drive On Jim was an easy winner last time out and is feared given his light weight but I am happy to side with Smoking Aces. I think a return to this trip on this ground with the jockey claiming 5lbs will see Smoking Aces go close in this race.

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 2.20 Punchestown Raz De Maree 1pt EW @ 12/1 Bet 365 Another competitive race with plenty in with some sort of chance but I like this horse returning from a break.. Raz De Maree is a very consistent horse having finished at least placed on 7 of his 8 completed starts. The only time he has finished out of the places was last time out over CD in grade 2 company. That was a hot race and I think he could be well treated returning to handicaps. On his run prior to that grade 2 effort, he was sent off a 7/2 favourite over this distance at Fairyhouse off this same mark. He was still going well that day when getting brought down by a faller. He has had 277 days off the track, which is a slight worry but Dessie Hughes has chosen to bring him back in a good race so I wouldn’t worry about his fitness. The stable could be in better form but this horse doesn’t know how to run a bad race. Bryan Cooper has ridden the horse plenty of times in the past and he gets the ride today. The ground is a slight worry as he has never encountered heavy ground in the past but he handled soft/heavy ground when finishing well to get 2nd behind Rivage D’Or at Naas. I think both the Mullins horses are worth taking on in this race as they ran well on their return to action after very long absences. Really Unique looks to be one of the chief dangers along with Sword Fish but I am happy to side with Raz De Maree.

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Two losers today. Raz De Maree ran the worst race of his career to date and was first beaten. Probably in need of the run but disappointing nonetheless. Smoking Aces was hampered quite badly twice. First by Leggy's Lad who give him a hefty bump and then by Start Me Up who fell on the flat. Doubt he would have got close to the winner but he did beat Portrait King a couple of runs ago.

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 2.20 Wolverhampton Novabridge 2pts win @ 7/1 Bet 365 This horse flopped last time out at Lingfield and never looked comfortable on the track. He has only had 5 career starts on the all weather with 4 of them coming in his last 4 runs. On the 3 occasions he has raced at this track he has finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th. The 2 placed efforts came over CD and I expect a big run from him back at this track. He is well drawn today and Adam Kirby takes the ride again. The stable remain in good form with the few runners they have sent out in recent days and this looks a good opportunity for him to get his first win on the all weather. This is a competitive race but Novabridge won off 63 on the turf a couple of times so should be able to get his head in front off this mark on the all weather. He was only just touched off by The Tatling over CD but the handicapper has been king in dropping him 2lbs since his last run. Hopeful of a good run.

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

2.20 Wolverhampton Novabridge 2pts win @ 7/1 Bet 365 This horse flopped last time out at Lingfield and never looked comfortable on the track. He has only had 5 career starts on the all weather with 4 of them coming in his last 4 runs. On the 3 occasions he has raced at this track he has finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th. The 2 placed efforts came over CD and I expect a big run from him back at this track. He is well drawn today and Adam Kirby takes the ride again. The stable remain in good form with the few runners they have sent out in recent days and this looks a good opportunity for him to get his first win on the all weather. This is a competitive race but Novabridge won off 63 on the turf a couple of times so should be able to get his head in front off this mark on the all weather. He was only just touched off by The Tatling over CD but the handicapper has been king in dropping him 2lbs since his last run. Hopeful of a good run.
:beer
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