jayalexander Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I wonder if anyone pays attention to this? I've only recently started to but it is now a big part of my selections. An owner who has had 5 winners at Ripon (for instance) from 15 is obviously a plus compared to another trainer who has 0 from 10, no matter who the trainer is. If you can find a high owner/trainer/jockey strike rate at a track then you may have found a winning bet. Previously I only used to take note of the trainer and jockey stats, but I feel that this is definately something else to take into consideration. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Re: Owner strike rates Personally dont see any benefit for owner stats, just my opinion of course! They dont have anything to do with the horses well being where as trainer stats do, also dont pay to much attention to current jockey form of course jockey and trainer combos are ok, aswell as jockey form at courses but current form nothing special (often jockeys having good runs are over bet) of course winners help confidence but still got to have the horse! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 Re: Owner strike rates Gotta disagree with you there, Chris. I think owners play a big part in a horse's success, after all, they are the connections and may influence the trainer's intentions. To prove my point, I just took a look at Dr Marwan Koukash's stats... http://www.racingpost.com/horses/owner_home.sd?owner_id=160671#topOwnerTabs=owner_stats_summary&bottomOwnerTabs=owner_stats He's had 8 winners in 12 at Brighton - 67%, but 0 in 30 at Ripon. Obviously you couldn't take this at face value and would have to look a bit further into it before splashing the cash, but based on this information I'd be laying his Ripon runners, for sure! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbythecat Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Re: Owner strike rates Gotta disagree with you there, Chris. I think owners play a big part in a horse's success, after all, they are the connections and may influence the trainer's intentions. To prove my point, I just took a look at Dr Marwan Koukash's stats... http://www.racingpost.com/horses/owner_home.sd?owner_id=160671#topOwnerTabs=owner_stats_summary&bottomOwnerTabs=owner_stats He's had 8 winners in 12 at Brighton - 67%, but 0 in 30 at Ripon. Obviously you couldn't take this at face value and would have to look a bit further into it before splashing the cash, but based on this information I'd be laying his Ripon runners, for sure! Good theory Jay, the same could be said for the Tabor/Magnier/Smith masses Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Re: Owner strike rates Brighton often has weak races and his horses are generally better than a typical 'Brighton horse' Ive heard him on Ch4 before and I think Im right in saying he likes to run his horse up north at yorkshire tracks as thats near him?? I just cant get my head round owner stats having an affect on the horse in any major way! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Re: Owner strike rates I think it could be an interesting angle if you had some idea of who the 'hands on' owners are Dr Koukash obviously is..........you can imagine him telling a trainer that he's going to Ripon with some of his mates in a couple of weeks, can you enter up some horses that have got a chance. But with owners who don't have an input, it's probably just coincidence if they have good stats at one track, or more likely trainer influence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbythecat Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Re: Owner strike rates I think it could be an interesting angle if you had some idea of who the 'hands on' owners are Dr Koukash obviously is..........you can imagine him telling a trainer that he's going to Ripon with some of his mates in a couple of weeks, can you enter up some horses that have got a chance. But with owners who don't have an input, it's probably just coincidence if they have good stats at one track, or more likely trainer influence. I think one person who does have a "hands on" role is Kristian Strangeways who is involved with Brian Ellison Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 Re: Owner strike rates Chris, you need to start thinking outside the box, mate ;) Tabby, I think you might be right there. He's definately a racing man :ok There could even be different rates that owners pay depending how hard they want the trainers to work their charges? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
south_eastern_ram Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Re: Owner strike rates I think one person who does have a "hands on" role is Kristian Strangeways who is involved with Brian Ellison Hugh Taylor mentioned an owner who claims horses and sends them to Brian Ellison with quite a few winning races after, probably the bloke you've stated. I agree with Chris, i cant see any benefit with owner strike rates. First of all you've got to have an owner who owns a lot of horses and has been in the game a number of years to have a big enough sample size. Then how do you know which owners play a big part in where horses are declared, some might not have a say at all, others might. I dont see any real benefit of jockey strike rates at certain tracks as well, particular jockeys ride tracks well but apart from that i dont see any significant plus points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Re: Owner strike rates Must say that i don't take notice of strike rates either, of jockey, trainer or owner,...........I suppose of the various strike rates I'm more inclined to be influenced by a trainer having a good recent strike rate as evidence that the yard is OK Even if these strike rates are at say 20%, it still means that 4 out of 5 are not going to win............ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 Re: Owner strike rates Must say that i don't take notice of strike rates either, of jockey, trainer or owner,...........I suppose of the various strike rates I'm more inclined to be influenced by a trainer having a good recent strike rate as evidence that the yard is OK Even if these strike rates are at say 20%, it still means that 4 out of 5 are not going to win............ Each to their own, but I've been MUCH more successful recently while looking at strike rates without paying too much attention to the horse's stats. Maybe I've just been extremely lucky! There are different ways of interpreting that 20%sr; 1 win in a total of 5, or 4 wins in a total of 20. It may have been a lucky win in a lowly seller for the first example, or four class 4 handicap victories for the second, so it obviously would be an advantage to research how the wins came before placing any money down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Re: Owner strike rates I don't really look at jockey stats, and certainly not owner stats. As long as the jockey is useful, then I'm not too concerned. One big thing for me has been looking back over trainer strike rates from previous months, though. It's got me a few decent winners this year. When you're trying to work out why horses ran badly and then see a random really poor strike rate for the trainer around the time of the run, it can give you the excuse. John Dunlop at the start of this season a prime example. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Re: Owner strike rates Jay you are right in your theory that some owners have a better strike rate at certain tracks . Reasons for this may include having lucky results thus becoming their favorite track and residing to close proximity to the venue. I do find that it is hard to gauge whether a particular horse is going to win at the owners track. You do need inside information like whether they are going to be present on the day( not all owners watch all their horses ) , whether they are gamblers ( a Tabor or an Arab ) , etc. It is a good and correct theory but to ascertain information other than form makes it a theory hard to exploit. One particular theory i have kept to myself over the years is external events connected to the connections as opposed to form. Some of them are easy to spot if you follow the current affairs of horse racing. It is astonishing how trainers can simply turn on the win switch on horses regardless of stable/horse form. Few examples : Death , if an owner dies their next runners often win . Examples include Robert Sangster , Maktoum al Maktoum , Queen Mother , Lord Weinstock notably Golan winning the King George a couple days after his death. More recently the owner of a horse called Casino Night who died the day before his horse pissed it at Hamilton a couple of months back. Retirement races , a higher than avarage strike rate when jockeys or trainers are having their last runner. Sometimes the fellow jockeys allow the retiring jockey is steal their last race , examples include Grand National winning jockey Neale Doughty they allowed him lead start to finish ,Graham Bradley ( bent jockey in my opionion , who announced his retirement straight after the race , so doesn't quite count ) , Jenny Pitman's "Queen of Aintree" last Aintree runner in the colours of Robert Hitchens absolutely pissed it under Richard Dunwoody. Not a concreate theory cos sometimes the jockeys fluff their lines like Dale Gibsons last ride. Marraige , very recent i'm sure even the younger members on here will know that the Josh Gifford trained horse " Royal Wedding " won on the day of Will's and Kate's wedding at 4/1 ish. Frankie's magnificent 7 back in the 90s , a combination of good rides with a touch of nepotism , his final few rides on that day the fellow jockeys must have taken a pull or not ridden to their best ( only my opinion ), only jockey trying was Pat Eddery on the K Abdulla horse Benfleet who came second to Frankie's 7th winner Fujiyama Crest. If you can watch a replay you will see Eddery trying his utmost to foil Frankie's 7 timer , one of the hardest rides i can recall Eddery giving ( possibly through jealousy ). the other jockeys allowed a walk Dettori. Landmark rides , 1000th winner , 2000th etc. In the 90s Pat Eddery was on 3999 winners during August. I said to my punting partner Eddery's going to handbrake all his horses for 2 weeks and then get the 4000th in the St Ledger. 4000th winner J Dunlop trained Silver Patriarch in the St Ledger. He does not have a single ride afterwards until the following season. I can come up with more examples but a drinking phase during the 2000s left my recollection of that era a litttle blurry. Anybody else any stories ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Re: Owner strike rates Hugh Taylor mentioned an owner who claims horses and sends them to Brian Ellison with quite a few winning races after, probably the bloke you've stated. Ellison has a lot to do with the Koo Racing Club (green and brown colours) that is operated by a professional gamble and the Ellison yard generally have a sound record of landing gambles! Very interesting post erhaab, personally havnt got any stories not been in the game long enough to pick up on such things but often these conicidences are just that and some are planned Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Re: Owner strike rates Ellison has a lot to do with the Koo Racing Club (green and brown colours) that is operated by a professional gamble and the Ellison yard generally have a sound record of landing gambles! Very interesting post erhaab, personally havnt got any stories not been in the game long enough to pick up on such things but often these conicidences are just that and some are planned K Strangeways the racing manager for the club as mentioned by Tabby , won 1/4 million on Betfair by backing at horse after the commenator said it had wrongly fallen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbythecat Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Re: Owner strike rates K Strangeways the racing manager for the club as mentioned by Tabby ' date=' won 1/4 million on Betfair by backing at horse after the commenator said it had wrongly fallen.[/quote'] yep thats right he placed a bet of £270 which was matched at 999/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haystacks Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Re: Owner strike rates yep thats right he placed a bet of £270 which was matched at 999/1 Here's the full story: http://www.yorkpress.co.uk/sport/horseracing/turftalk/4389403.North_Yorkshire_profesional_gamble_Kristian_Strangeway_affords_a_glimpse_into_his_money_making_method/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 Re: Owner strike rates Nice find, Haystacks. I've heard the crux of the story before but it's good hearing it coming straight from the horse's mouth. Shame that the degree that he did in Salford is now no more :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Re: Owner strike rates Minor deviation from original post . 635 Epsom favorite in the 5 horse race is owned by J M Brown , think he is or was the boss of W Hills. Think the firm will have inside info on this runner , may end up being beat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Re: Owner strike rates Race off whilst typing the post , was beaten , not sure what the SP was but it was 5/4 5 minutes before the off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Re: Owner strike rates Not 100% its the William Hills colours , Billy H am i correct ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Re: Owner strike rates Jay you are right in your theory that some owners have a better strike rate at certain tracks . Reasons for this may include having lucky results thus becoming their favorite track and residing to close proximity to the venue. I do find that it is hard to gauge whether a particular horse is going to win at the owners track. You do need inside information like whether they are going to be present on the day( not all owners watch all their horses ) , whether they are gamblers ( a Tabor or an Arab ) , etc. It is a good and correct theory but to ascertain information other than form makes it a theory hard to exploit. One particular theory i have kept to myself over the years is external events connected to the connections as opposed to form. Some of them are easy to spot if you follow the current affairs of horse racing. It is astonishing how trainers can simply turn on the win switch on horses regardless of stable/horse form. Few examples : Death , if an owner dies their next runners often win . Examples include Robert Sangster , Maktoum al Maktoum , Queen Mother , Lord Weinstock notably Golan winning the King George a couple days after his death. More recently the owner of a horse called Casino Night who died the day before his horse pissed it at Hamilton a couple of months back. Retirement races , a higher than avarage strike rate when jockeys or trainers are having their last runner. Sometimes the fellow jockeys allow the retiring jockey is steal their last race , examples include Grand National winning jockey Neale Doughty they allowed him lead start to finish ,Graham Bradley ( bent jockey in my opionion , who announced his retirement straight after the race , so doesn't quite count ) , Jenny Pitman's "Queen of Aintree" last Aintree runner in the colours of Robert Hitchens absolutely pissed it under Richard Dunwoody. Not a concreate theory cos sometimes the jockeys fluff their lines like Dale Gibsons last ride. Marraige , very recent i'm sure even the younger members on here will know that the Josh Gifford trained horse " Royal Wedding " won on the day of Will's and Kate's wedding at 4/1 ish. Frankie's magnificent 7 back in the 90s , a combination of good rides with a touch of nepotism , his final few rides on that day the fellow jockeys must have taken a pull or not ridden to their best ( only my opinion ), only jockey trying was Pat Eddery on the K Abdulla horse Benfleet who came second to Frankie's 7th winner Fujiyama Crest. If you can watch a replay you will see Eddery trying his utmost to foil Frankie's 7 timer , one of the hardest rides i can recall Eddery giving ( possibly through jealousy ). the other jockeys allowed a walk Dettori. Landmark rides , 1000th winner , 2000th etc. In the 90s Pat Eddery was on 3999 winners during August. I said to my punting partner Eddery's going to handbrake all his horses for 2 weeks and then get the 4000th in the St Ledger. 4000th winner J Dunlop trained Silver Patriarch in the St Ledger. He does not have a single ride afterwards until the following season. I can come up with more examples but a drinking phase during the 2000s left my recollection of that era a litttle blurry. Anybody else any stories ? Watch out for Barry Hill's last official runner in his name . I may have a few quid on regardless of form. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Re: Owner strike rates Crack at Dawn running tonight at Worcester tonight , saucy double entendre ? Would be called Crack of Dawn otherwise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Re: Owner strike rates Hope some of you were on Barry Hills final race at Bath , decent price too ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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