bubblesbrian Posted July 17, 2011 Author Share Posted July 17, 2011 Re: New To The Horses Got it! Finally. I am getting there lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubblesbrian Posted July 24, 2011 Author Share Posted July 24, 2011 Re: New To The Horses Righto I think I'm there on most of my knowledge apart from the following. I've read a lot of threads and blogs and have come across some terminology that I believe I can make a guess at what it means though I would Just like some confirmation if you would be so kind. Strike Rate - This is the amount of winners or percentage of winners. E.g I've placed 100 bets, 50 were winners 50 losers so my strike rate is 50%? How do E/W bets work into this? are they still classed as a win because I made a profit? ROI - I'm not too sure if this is the Return On Investment of my total stake amount or single stake. Point - I think that this is my price per point. So say I have a bank of £100 pound I could say £1 is 1 point. Risk - Is this my stake or my bank? Bankroll - Easy enough. The total amount I have to play with. I'm working on my own spreadsheet to keep track of any information. Is there anything that you would recommend I keep track off? Mention anything at all even if you think it's blatantly obvious I may not. I want to know detailed stuff as well as simple stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Re: New To The Horses Righto I think I'm there on most of my knowledge apart from the following. I've read a lot of threads and blogs and have come across some terminology that I believe I can make a guess at what it means though I would Just like some confirmation if you would be so kind. Strike Rate - This is the amount of winners or percentage of winners. E.g I've placed 100 bets, 50 were winners 50 losers so my strike rate is 50%? How do E/W bets work into this? are they still classed as a win because I made a profit? Yes, although you could make things more streamlined by having seperate win and e/w banks. ROI - I'm not too sure if this is the Return On Investment of my total stake amount or single stake. Total stake amount. Point - I think that this is my price per point. So say I have a bank of £100 pound I could say £1 is 1 point. Correct. Risk - Is this my stake or my bank? The risk is your stake. I guess you could call it your liability. Bankroll - Easy enough. The total amount I have to play with. I'm working on my own spreadsheet to keep track of any information. Is there anything that you would recommend I keep track off? Mention anything at all even if you think it's blatantly obvious I may not. I want to know detailed stuff as well as simple stuff. I don't keep track of my betting. All I need to know is that I'm in profit :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Re: New To The Horses Just a couple of things........ To be honest, I also don't keep a record of my bets although I only have one internet account and do all my betting on that so the record is there stored by the bookie under 'My Account' if i ever want to look at it..........but as long as I can see the total amount in my 'bankroll' and it's more than i put in to start up the account i know I'm in profit and that's all i need to know.............:unsure The 'points' thing is really a matter of etiquette..........one person's 'point' might be a pound, another person's 'point' might be a hundred pounds, but it's not considered the done thing on a forum such as this to start saying 'I had a hundred quid on Workforce'..........it's a bit like telling people how much you earn. We're all equal here regardless of how much we bet...........so you say 'it's a 1 point bet' and that might be one pound or a hundred........but all our 1 point bets are equal on the forum ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Re: New To The Horses ROI is the returns on your investment, this is usually used when you start with a specific bank figure, say you start betting with a set bank of £100, the ROI is the figure you have returned for your investment. So if your bank stands at £189 for example, your ROI is 89% 189-100/100=0.89 or 89% The other way of showing how well you are doing is sometimes shown as yield, this is when you dont neccesary have a bank as such but is worked out against the amount of turnover it has took to make the £89 profit, so if you staked £200 to reach your profit of £89 your yield would be 44.5%; Profit/Stakes=Yield : 89/200= 44.5% Most people recon if your yield is over 10% consistently over time your doing ok? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Re: New To The Horses Betting record spreadsheet here if its any good to you, its not mine by the way. Its good for EW bets but just delete the columns you dont want. Spreadsheet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubblesbrian Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 Re: New To The Horses I'm back again. I have read all about VALUE yet I am still slightly struggling with the details. I have my own tissue as follows, my percentage chance of winning, then converted into odds followed by the odds at the bookies. A 29%---5/2----7/1 B 13%---7/1----7/1 C 13%---7/1----16/1 D 21%---4/1----5/1 E 25%---3/1----5/1 F 46%---6/5----5/1 G 29%---5/2----5/1 H 8%----12/1---6/1 I 8%-----12/1---14/1 Horse F is my best rated horse at 46%. Where exactly is the VALUE? I can see that my horse is one that the bookies thinks has a good chance of winning compared to the others so I'm happy with that. Yet I know I need to be chasing value in the long run in order to turn a decent profit and not just chase winners. I know this has probably been answered to death a lot of times and I am sorry yet I'm struggling to get to grips with this one. I have read GINGERTIPSTER's post on this but it's not going in. Cheers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captaincool Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Re: New To The Horses Just a couple of things........ To be honest, I also don't keep a record of my bets although I only have one internet account and do all my betting on that so the record is there stored by the bookie under 'My Account' if i ever want to look at it..........but as long as I can see the total amount in my 'bankroll' and it's more than i put in to start up the account i know I'm in profit and that's all i need to know.............:unsure The 'points' thing is really a matter of etiquette..........one person's 'point' might be a pound, another person's 'point' might be a hundred pounds, but it's not considered the done thing on a forum such as this to start saying 'I had a hundred quid on Workforce'..........it's a bit like telling people how much you earn. We're all equal here regardless of how much we bet...........so you say 'it's a 1 point bet' and that might be one pound or a hundred........but all our 1 point bets are equal on the forum ! I think both of these are daft: 1 - Why don't you keep a record? You surely can't judge yourself to be good at what you are dong if you place three bets that you think will win, and they lose, then you win an 'all or nothing' bet.... 2 - Follows on from 1. I agree, in principal, with the staking system but so many people post bets that sometimes i'ts good to know stakes. A lot of people post 'tips' that aren't bets but personally I'd rather know that someone has lost/won £100 on workforce because it lets me know how serious they are. Granted, all stakes are worthy but I'd rather be following the guy that places £500 on a 10pt bet than the guy who places £10 on a 10pt bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captaincool Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Re: New To The Horses I'm back again. I have read all about VALUE yet I am still slightly struggling with the details. I have my own tissue as follows, my percentage chance of winning, then converted into odds followed by the odds at the bookies. A 29%---5/2----7/1 B 13%---7/1----7/1 C 13%---7/1----16/1 D 21%---4/1----5/1 E 25%---3/1----5/1 F 46%---6/5----5/1 G 29%---5/2----5/1 H 8%----12/1---6/1 I 8%-----12/1---14/1 Horse F is my best rated horse at 46%. Where exactly is the VALUE? I can see that my horse is one that the bookies thinks has a good chance of winning compared to the others so I'm happy with that. Yet I know I need to be chasing value in the long run in order to turn a decent profit and not just chase winners. I know this has probably been answered to death a lot of times and I am sorry yet I'm struggling to get to grips with this one. I have read GINGERTIPSTER's post on this but it's not going in. Cheers. I'm bad at calculating value, because I don't bet from a mathematical POV. All I'd say on advice is if you calculate Horse F to have an 80% chance, then it's value but if Horse F has a 25% then it's not value. It's all subjective though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubblesbrian Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 Re: New To The Horses I agree that Value is subjective (reminds me of the Ebay motto "One mans junk is another mans treasure"), yet it's been drilled into me ( through blogs and forums I read) that to be successful in the long run I need to find Value and not just winners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DM99 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Re: New To The Horses I'm back again. I have read all about VALUE yet I am still slightly struggling with the details. I have my own tissue as follows, my percentage chance of winning, then converted into odds followed by the odds at the bookies. ....... Horse F is my best rated horse at 46%. Where exactly is the VALUE? I can see that my horse is one that the bookies thinks has a good chance of winning compared to the others so I'm happy with that. Yet I know I need to be chasing value in the long run in order to turn a decent profit and not just chase winners. Expectation is your expected return over the long term and is your "edge" over the bookies and the other punters. It is the sum of all outcomes multiplied by each individual profit/loss. This is better explained with examples below. If it is positive then you win money in the long term. If it is negative, you lose money in the long term. Example 1: roulette. Pick a number and place your bet of $1. There are 37 spots on the wheel in total: 36 where you lose your $1 and 1 spot where you win at 35/1 to make $35 profit. Expectation: -$1 x 36/37 + $35 x 1/37 = -$0.027 Your expected loss is $0.027, or 2.7 cents per spin, and the edge against you is -0.027 x 100 = -2.7% Example 2: Horse F Let's work this out for a $1 stake. You can back at 5/1 that which wins 46% of the time - in other words 46% of the time you gain $5 profit. 54% of the time you lose $1. Expected return: -$1 x 0.54 + 5 x 0.46 = $1.76, or edge = 176% (wildly profitable, and in my experience, extremely unlikely) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Re: New To The Horses I agree that Value is subjective (reminds me of the Ebay motto "One mans junk is another mans treasure")' date=' yet it's been drilled into me ( through blogs and forums I read) that to be successful in the long run I need to find Value and not just winners.[/quote'] Brian mate, in my opinion you are trying to make this far too complicated. You say you are new to horses, I think you should worry about the basics first which is race reading. Value is all about opinions and no one on here can tell you what horse is value. I might think a 4/5 shot is value, the next guy may think its a terrible price? Making your own tissues needs experience in race reading and form study, how else can you evaluate every horse, which is what you need to do. Just enjoy the sport, watch as much racing as you can, if you look at a race before you see the betting and think your selection should be about 3/1 and its 9/2 then you have found value, in your eyes only, not anyone else's. Betting on horses is not an exact science like the roulette wheel, if you just want to make money then racing is not the sport to be taking up, too many variables on a day to day basis, Ground, track, jockeys, trips, late NR's, gambles, luck in running, draw, etc. etc.......You need to love this game to put up with it! They reckon Snooker and Tennis are the two sports that are the most profitable for professional punters, no conicidence that they involve just two people, playing on the same size playing field time after time. Too much information can be self defeating at times.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Re: New To The Horses Exactly what I thought when I read this this morning, BG. Sometimes the best way to learn is through your mistakes. To speak about pricing up a race, I'm sure, is not something any of us have considered before placing our first ever bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Re: New To The Horses Advice to beginners. Avoid having chunky bets on short priced horse in maidens. Once /twice raced 2YOs/3YOs with a 2nd or 3rd place to its name that are very short priced / heavy odds on are not worthy betting propositons in my opinion. Yes they do win sometimes , but betting on these races is slow road to ruin. Only my opinion . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Re: New To The Horses I think both of these are daft: 1 - Why don't you keep a record? You surely can't judge yourself to be good at what you are dong if you place three bets that you think will win, and they lose, then you win an 'all or nothing' bet.... 2 - Follows on from 1. I agree, in principal, with the staking system but so many people post bets that sometimes i'ts good to know stakes. A lot of people post 'tips' that aren't bets but personally I'd rather know that someone has lost/won £100 on workforce because it lets me know how serious they are. Granted, all stakes are worthy but I'd rather be following the guy that places £500 on a 10pt bet than the guy who places £10 on a 10pt bet. I only have one betting account - I can judge how well I'm doing by the amount in the account. I know what I started with about 18 months ago and I've now got 8 times that amount...........so I know i'm doing OK. And as i said, all the bets are recorded on the bookie site so i can always look back over them if i need to Second point - surely that depends on what somebody earns. if Richard Branson came on here and said he was having £100 on Workforce you might think he doesn't fancy it very much, it's a flutter..............if i said i was having a fiver on you'd know i thought it was a dead cert.........that why points not pounds is better. A hundred quid might be a 1 point bet to Branson and a fiver might be a 5 point maximum bet for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Re: New To The Horses Agree , for the purpose of posting tips it would be more useful if a points system was adopted. Like you say it would give casual members an indication of stronlgy fancied a paricular tips was. If somebody posted a 10 point bet it may apear that they may fancy it strongly , but if we knew it was 50p a point then £5 on a horse doesn't look that strong to some people. Like you say it is all down to what we are comfortable betting with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Re: New To The Horses Um, a points system is already quite rightly used on PL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Re: New To The Horses Where can i find this points system ? If somebody on his own thread stakes for example 7.5 points would that be comparable to somebody elses staking thread ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Re: New To The Horses Well it's their own thread. How can it be comparable to someone else staking method? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Re: New To The Horses So my point is that you cannot guage the strength of a particaular bet by the points staked. If somebody staked 10 points on a selection does that mean he likes it 10 times more than a 1 point bet ? Also would that be comparable to a 5 point max bet somebody else ? So for somebody using some of the tips it would be helpful if some sort of staking plan was in place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Re: New To The Horses So my point is that you cannot guage the strength of a particaular bet by the points staked. If somebody staked 10 points on a selection does that mean he likes it 10 times more than a 1 point bet ? Also would that be comparable to a 5 point max bet somebody else ? So for somebody using some of the tips it would be helpful if some sort of staking plan was in place. I don't think you can compare the strength of bets between punters on the forum in this way, as Jay has said, the staking plans are tailored to each individual, if anyone is planning on following a tip off the forum surely they would do their research by looking at the past history of the punter in the thread and ascertaining whether the stake size in question is large or small for that person? RE record keeping, I cannot stress just how important it is. I hate keeping records and regularly get behind but the more info you can collect the better. When it comes to refinining your betting criteria it saves so much time if you can do it as you are going along. Ive found some really things out by looking back over past records, certain odds ranges that werent profitable, whether it was better to back win only vs each way, race classes that generated more profit than others and certain distances that have been money spinners or a financial drain. I think when punters are winning they can easily get complacent (I did a little last year) and dont feel the need to keep solid records, but losing runs are always round the corner, and when they do hit, such records are key in analysing whether the losing run is natural and part of your betting stratergy, or whether you've been subsciously been drifting away from your core principals. If you are a value punter with money spread all over the place its also good to keep tabs on funds. Its interesting to see which bookies are your jinxes and which disagree with your opinions most when you have cashed in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Re: New To The Horses I don't think you can compare the strength of bets between punters on the forum in this way, as Jay has said, the staking plans are tailored to each individual, if anyone is planning on following a tip off the forum surely they would do their research by looking at the past history of the punter in the thread and ascertaining whether the stake size in question is large or small for that person? I thought this was the case. If gamblers stumble across this site after seeing " The worlds best betting forum" they may not neccessarily do their own research into that particular punter as you suggested. They may not understand the nature of the posts and take the tips at face value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Re: New To The Horses Well in that case, they are stupid and deserve to lose! I can't even see you argument; in fact, you don't have one! I can't even be bothered counter what you have written above because it's so dumb! What do you want, a disclaimer!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Re: New To The Horses Well in that case, they are stupid and deserve to lose! I can't even see you argument; in fact, you don't have one! I can't even be bothered counter what you have written above because it's so dumb! What do you want, a disclaimer!? Why have you taken the attitude that punters who stumble on here looking and using tips from here are " stupid and deserve to lose". Isn't it a forum to help fellow punters ? Whats so "dumb" about a points system to indicate the strength of punters selections. I understand that it may not fit the individual threads , but surely the there is nothing dumb about a universal points system. I don't understand the tone of your response . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Re: New To The Horses As far as I know, there are no professional tipsters on PL. Most do it for fun. Likewise, PL is a non-subscription site, anyone can post a tip and therefore a universal points system wouldn't be much help. If that's what you want then go and use Hugh Taylor or similar. I'll stand by my original comment that people deserve to lose if they back someone's tips without any of their own research. That would be the best learning curve anyway for people starting out. This is a forum to help punters. In fact, that's exactly what this thread was! It will be a waste of your time if you decide to reply to this, because I won't be taking the bait and responding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Re: New To The Horses Personally i like to see punters winning , your final line suggsts i am setting a trap for you i was merely trying to find some answers to a few questions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Re: New To The Horses Come on guys no need for the heated stuff. Jay, I think Erhaab was just asking how would a newbie know if a 2pts bet is a strong fancy or just a tentative selection? I agree they should then look through that punters bets and decide for themselves what 2pts actually means, is that an average bet, a small bet? Most individual threads have been going long enough for members to decide whats what, Monterosso for example has a clear staking guide; work of a 1-5 point scale, 1 obviously being my weakest selection, 5 being a max bet for me. Wizzkid works on a 0-10pts scale, I do a % of my bank, Russ does the same stake on each selection etc...etc.... It is up to the member to make up his own mind at the end of the day and i agree that all individual threads should have a set scale in place at the beginning of their thread, in which i think most do. If a lurker doesnt check that out then like Jay they have no sympathy from me. Its not that difficult to work out from the threads, posts and reasoning to see how much a selection is fancied. One thing is for sure is that members shouldnt take the bets in the BBOTD that serious, i dont mean they are not good tips because many of them are, but in the competition they are all level stakes and some tipsters will put forward selections depending on how they are doing in the latest table rather than their best bets, especially in the latter stages of the month. Also many tipster back win only in the comps when they are probably EW bets in reality? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trips Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Re: New To The Horses For example - tracks. I think it's very worthwhile to really get to know the tracks, which ones are right-hand, left-hand, flat, undulating, uphill finish, sharp or galloping. Different track layouts suit different horses and different run styles. I find this very important if you're dealing in handicaps where all the horses are approximately the same ability and it's often suitability to track, going and trip that sorts them outThis is very good advice, It is very important to know the going and how tough the race will be.A horse that wins a 2mile race at an easy track like Taunton on good or firm ground will probably be knackered in a 2 m.4f race at Plumpton on Heavy ground. so check the horses past form. Also check the prize money for the races that the horse has won. it's an easy guide to class. if it has won a £2000 race and is now running in a £7000+ race in theory things should be harder,yes it will carry a lower weight but that's what's racing about.is it good enough to race and win in better class races..Better class horses obviously run for more Prize money. I would just have the attitude of not asking a horse to do more than it has done in the past. that is the most reliable form you can have. try and pick horses that have run well at the Course, the same going, same prize money,same weight in the past.has it ran well at that distance,look for in running comments in of ran on strongly,it can show the horse won comfortable and is capable of running over longer distances if needed. I think you can make things too complicated if you start checking the form, viewing it's past races, so IMO i wouldn't advice this.You really have to know what to look for,yes do this in the future but for now concentrate on form. All this is basic stuff but you have to learn the basics before you start having opinions on anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Re: New To The Horses Thanks Billy H , everything cleared up , no more about that specific topic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.