mileni4uk Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot im trying to scan the ante post market for the royal hunt cup but i have no idea how the weights work ? 98 seems to be 8-13 as far as i can tell so that puts mont angel top at the moment on 148 but its a mess .computer is flashing samurai sword 16/1 at me as awesome bet but hes rated 94 officially that would put him on 8-9 but hes showing 7-12 in the lists .is there a minimum weight for this race (i.e 8-7 etc ?) and do 3yr olds get allowances ? is that why hes showing 7-12? reason im asking is his rating of 132 was achieved off 9-7 so computer is saying he gets in 23bs lower !!! off 7-12 or i.e thrown in with a flea his back ? Depends who's top weight and all that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot Depends who's top weight and all that. yeah i see what you mean ......a few might drop out etc and the weights go up but its the allowances im trying to fathom out as that would have a big impact .im just trying to find a bit of ante post value ...........most bookmakers are going 14/1 (just 4 pts bigger than green destiny and start right so they must fear him even as a 3yr old so im going to go 2pts at 26.0 on betfair ......thats got to be a good bet (if he runs ) and gives me some leeway to lay him later if he turns out to be a genuine 14/1 shot and might get a 100 % return (i wish !!!....lol) samurai sword 2pts win royal hunt cup 26.0 betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot the wokingham : ive done a quick scan of the market and horseradish seems to stand out as the value bet at the moment ,wasnt far behind hoof it when they last met and improved next time out in listed class only failing by 5 lengths in a fast time ,now drops back to class 2 and officially rated 102 ....should be 8/1 2nd fav behind hoof it and available at 18.5 on betfair 5pts win .value gives plenty of scope to lay nearer the time 5pts win horseradish wokingham 18.5 betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot The allowance for 3yo is 11lbs, but extremely hard for a young horse to win it. That said, I don't know how many 3yo's have run down the years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot Just seen Hayley Turner has opted for Deacon Blues in the Wokingham, when I assume she could have picked Horseradish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot Just seen Hayley Turner has opted for Deacon Blues in the Wokingham' date=' when I assume she could have picked Horseradish[/quote'] noticed you put him up earlier in the thread ........personally i really like horseradish for this race ,he recorded a speed figure of 144 2 races ago against hoof it then improved to 150 in the listed race ,drops back to class 2 and recieves weight from hoof it i think because of relative hcap marks so to me he looks well capable of taking hoof it down ...(the other 30 runners im not sure of ....lol) so at 17/1 hes definately the value bet of the race at the moment .......i personally dont worry about jockey bookings too much as ive lost track of the times ive backed the supposed stable 2nd string based on jockeys and they win anyway ......horses ability trumps jockey every time in my book . the only jockey booking i worry over is andrea atzeni who sometimes rides my bottom weights ,crap doesnt cover it .ive recorded a 10lb drop in form 5 times !!!! recently when that jockey is on board then it bounces back next time they dont ride .....ridiculous .....i now avoid and turn down bets as a result and if atzeni rides samurai sword im going to rush off to betfair ,lay lay lay !!!!!! ......lol:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot Three for me in the Wokingham: Hawkeyethenoo - hasn't been hit hard for his last win over further and handles the track. Deacon Blues - placed form at the track recently and looks dangerously handicapped. Has been supported in the last few days as well. Waffle - lightly raced last term and been a massive eyecatcher on all starts this season. Seasonal best was over 6f when couldnt get enough cover at Doncaster. Found 5f sharp since, step back up a big plus for one placed in a Group 3 contest here in his younger days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot im trying to scan the ante post market for the royal hunt cup but i have no idea how the weights work ? 98 seems to be 8-13 as far as i can tell so that puts mont angel top at the moment on 148 but its a mess .computer is flashing samurai sword 16/1 at me as awesome bet but hes rated 94 officially that would put him on 8-9 but hes showing 7-12 in the lists .is there a minimum weight for this race (i.e 8-7 etc ?) and do 3yr olds get allowances ? is that why hes showing 7-12? reason im asking is his rating of 132 was achieved off 9-7 so computer is saying he gets in 23bs lower !!! off 7-12 or i.e thrown in with a flea his back ? obvious negative is he a 3yr old and they dont generally do very good but rating was his first run and he now drops 21lbs so vast improvement for al zarooni predicted ? The field size is roughly 30 for the race so those with the highest OR's at the declarations stage will get in. There will be plenty of movement between now and 18th June though - just looking tonight, a horse currently rated 100 is right down in the last few in the weights but history would suggest 10 or 15 from above that position will drop out come race day. EDIT, sorry, I was on about the Wokingham, not the Hunt Cup as you were Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot Add me to the Green Destiny (Hunt Cup) fan club as well lads. I've got that in a 259/1 double with Waffle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot Horseradish sold to Hong Kong and won't run at Ascot. Makes my selecting a bit easier I guess! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot Horseradish sold to Hong Kong and won't run at Ascot. Makes my selecting a bit easier I guess! sometimes........i hate ante post betting ......lol :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot I did think it was strange Turner had committed to Deacon Blues Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trips Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot Weather looks a bit unpredictable this week .forecast for Ascot is a few light showers, forecasts have been awful lately so i think i will leave any bets till next week. nothing worse than picking something who loves fast ground and it pours down for days leading up to the race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot Now Rite of Passage has suffered a setback and a decision will be made at the weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot Now Rite of Passage has suffered a setback and a decision will be made at the weekend If there was rain I'd be more inclined to back Manighar. I had that as the main danger to Duncan in the Yorkshire Cup and it ran well, only beaten a length on ground that was far too quick for it. It will love the trip and is a seriously decent horse. I like Duncan but pedigree looks short of stamina, although it led all the way at York and was then running on at the end of the race. I noticed Shumoos is 2-1 fav for its race, form was franked when Frederick Engels won at the weekend, looked a very decent type at Haydock when we were there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot I noticed Shumoos is 2-1 fav for its race, form was franked when Frederick Engels won at the weekend, looked a very decent type at Haydock when we were there. Well I'd definately want to back Miss Work of Art in that at 8s but not sure she will go for the race and Fahey won't respond to my tweet! Apparently there will be an announcement tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot Blue Bajan for me if it gets supplemented in the gold cup which looks quite likely. I have been looking at the golden jubilee. Blu Constellation slammed Wizz Kid last time out by 6 lengths in group 2 company. If the ground isn't fast at Ascot, I would be quite tempted by that horse as well as Lady of the Desert. I don't think Delegator will win. Anyone else have any thoughts on Blu Constellation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quackers Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot This will sound rather crazy but I am thinking of taking Frankel on with Neebras in the St James Palace. Neebras is currently 66/1 which is massive if the ground is good or better. Any soft in the ground and I won't touch him as he disappointed massively last time out on good to soft at Sandown. The run before that at Newmarket was so impressive for me, that his Sandown run must be forgiven. I am hoping the soft ground was against him. Neebras recorded a time a full 2 seconds quicker than that of Frankel's guineas win over the same CD. Granted the conditions were very different and Frankel had to contend with a fierce headwind but Neebras was heavily eased for the final 150yds and only ran against 2 other horses. 66/1 looks far to big to me if the ground is good to firm. Take Frankel out and the race looks wide open. If Frankel is ridden the same way as his guineas win, then I think he will get beat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot That does sound crazy, yes :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quackers Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot Frankel too short for me to back. Neebras could quite easily sneak a place Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quackers Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot Does anyone know if Richard Hannon's run of losers at Ascot is still on-going? Does it include Royal Ascot? I can't find the stats anywhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot Does anyone know if Richard Hannon's run of losers at Ascot is still on-going? Does it include Royal Ascot? I can't find the stats anywhere. Hannon's had 2 winners from 15 runners there this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot think he has had a couple winners this year at ascot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot This will sound rather crazy but I am thinking of taking Frankel on with Neebras in the St James Palace. Neebras is currently 66/1 which is massive if the ground is good or better. Any soft in the ground and I won't touch him as he disappointed massively last time out on good to soft at Sandown. The run before that at Newmarket was so impressive for me' date=' that his Sandown run must be forgiven. I am hoping the soft ground was against him. Neebras recorded a time a full 2 seconds quicker than that of Frankel's guineas win over the same CD. Granted the conditions were very different and Frankel had to contend with a fierce headwind but Neebras was heavily eased for the final 150yds and only ran against 2 other horses. 66/1 looks far to big to me if the ground is good to firm. Take Frankel out and the race looks wide open. If Frankel is ridden the same way as his guineas win, then I think he will get beat.[/quote'] I personally don't see Frankel getting beat but you never know! Will be interesting to see what happens to the ground. Dream Ahead surely didn't give his true running in the Dewhurst and will be quite interesting on soft ground Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot He is no bet though isn't he. Better off looking for those on the place market. I think WB will bounce back and place, still think he is quality and put in a good effort in France considering his draw. Hannigan had to make the move he did at the start but it took its toll in the end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot Frankel at 1/3... No thanks. Surely, Wooten Bassett at 12/1 is the each way call here. Discard the French form, where he had a shocker of a draw and stood no chance.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot The ground looks like it will go against Brick Red, but if it eased a bit, he'd have a helluva chance in the Hunt Cup at 33/1 - not long ago he was 12/1 for the Lincoln and Balding has always felt he was capable of winning a big pot. Also ran well at Ascot last season. Just wonder if his chance may come at the back end of the season though when the ground is easier. The other one to keep an eye on for the Hunt Cup IMO is Leviathan, second at Sandown and rates much better than the bare form given the winner nicked the race with a ballsy decision from his rider who raced alone on the far side. He's on 87 and needs to win at York to get in the race - otherwise he'll miss the cut. Generally around 91+ has been needed to get in for recent renewals. Still think Green Destiny is the one to beat though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot I understans people wanting to back an E/W shot in the St James' Palace as clearly with Frankel so short there will be good prices available for the placed horses. But taking Frankel on to win? I'm not sure this is a great idea. I don't really get what there is in any of his form that would warrant taking him on? He's won in small fields, he's won in big fields, he's come from the back off a slow pace, he's won when setting a fierce pace and making all. Tactically he simply has it all. I actually think that 1/3 is great value as I thiink he has a much greater that 67% chance of winning the race. I genuinely do not seeing him getting beaten in this race and I will be well and truly on Frankel. I suppose though, such contrasting opinions and approaches are what make this game so great Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot One trend that goes against Frankel in the race is 10 of 10 winners ran in last 30 days. Although saying that, there have been plenty of trends that have been broken this year plus we very rarely see a horse with Frankel's ability. That being said I will be looking to back something each way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Re: Royal Ascot Just a question, as each way betting is something that intrigues me... For those who don't think Frankel will get beat, but isn't a backable price, why then, if Frankel 'will' win, are you wasting half of your stake on a win part of an each way bet? Surely the more profitable way to tackle the race would be the place market? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.