bigc86 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Youve got one bet to make at this years festival, one bet, who you opting for chaps... I'd be putting my lot on Oscars Well in the Neptune:hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trips Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... Ghizao in the Arkle, awful prices on offer for this race,would rather see what price it is on the day. IMO I think it will look like a 2 horse race approaching the last, Ghiazao and Merdemit, but can see Ghizao powering up the hill going away from Merdemit who i dont think will like the battle up the Chelteham hill and pos fade out of it, bit worried about the lack of a recent run but connections dont seem to concerned and they know best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewPunter Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... Going as Good to Soft on the opening day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... Time For Rupert. Short price really with a few question marks over wellbeing. Would be more confident if he'd had a prep run but has nothing to fear imo, and looks like clearly the best. Hells Bay was 2nd highest rated last time I checked and Rupert saw that off easily over c&d on Rupert's chasing/seasonal debut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... Time for Rupert for me or Cue Card in the Supreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... Happy with everyone posting their NAP for the festival but a little bit of reasoning with these posts would be handy, copy and paste it over if you've already posted in the actual race threads. :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
who?me? Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... TIME FOR RUPERT. Had money on him ante-post for months. I've followed him for a couple of years now. It's unfortunate he missed the Argento but in my opinion, he's a Cheltenham specialist and a gutsy performer. Look at the race he put up against Big Bucks last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldikova Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... It shows you how tight these bookies can be when Rupert's price is still 5/2, despite some good horses putting in good races. He's the one they all have to shoot down. As much as i like him, there's no way i'd be taking that kind of price. When you have horses like Jessies Dream and Aiteen Thirtythree kicking about, you can never be certain of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torn up slip Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... Hurricane fly. His cruising speed, turn of foot and the way he gets over his hurdles without changing foot or losing a single yard is what will seal the race. The fact WM has been patient enough to wait 3 years with him tell's me everything I need to know but watching his races is simply the icing on the cake. The more I think about it, the more I think they simply wont see which way he went. He might not get up the hill the best, But I personally expect him to kick on from the last bend and have put the race to bed after he pings the last. If he doesn't win then im going to owe a lot of my non racing friends a lot of apologies. I've been telling whoever I know to get money on him. :loon Honorubable mention to Ericht in the bumper as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... I'm not saying he hasn't got a great chance, he has and could win, but to say he is a banker in what is possibly the best and most competitive race of the festival is a bit strange. He has beaten Solwhit loads but nothing else. Don't forget Solwhit was not close in the race last year. I love Hurricain Fly as well but no way is he banker material Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... And haven't Montjeus offspring got a poor record at Cheltenham? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torn up slip Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... Hmmm yeah you're probably right Rat, take this as my edit then. I think he's the best 5/1 banker about. It would be all to easy to stick Cue Card, Time For Rupert, Big Bucks, Garde Champetre or other shorty up as banker material but for me, at the prices knocking about, given what I simply feel is just a massive gulf in class on his rivals then HF is my idea of banker material. The ONLY thing that can beat him imo is the track, if this was being run in Ireland then he'd be odds on. Now im well aware of how incredibly stupid that statement is, but there is twisted logic to it as well in my own sick mind. :loon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldikova Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... Hmmm yeah you're probably right Rat, take this as my edit then. I think he's the best 5/1 banker about. It would be all to easy to stick Cue Card, Time For Rupert, Big Bucks, Garde Champetre or other shorty up as banker material but for me, at the prices knocking about, given what I simply feel is just a massive gulf in class on his rivals then HF is my idea of banker material. The ONLY thing that can beat him imo is the track, if this was being run in Ireland then he'd be odds on. Now im well aware of how incredibly stupid that statement is, but there is twisted logic to it as well in my own sick mind. :loon :unsure Don't answer your door if you see any people in white coats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fredward Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... Quevega is the banker of the festival imo. There were doubts last year with the lack of a run but she showed that she goes well fresh and can win a top race without a run. There have been some interesting challengers this year in Sparky May and Our Girl Salley but I feel that Quevega improved after her cheltenham run and I think she will be even better this year now a 7yo. In the world in punchestown she beat the likes of Benslaem, Mourad, Noble Prince, Oscar Dan Dan, Jessies Dream & Kayf Aramis. This is rock solid form and I really can't see her being beaten if she lines up fit and well. Would love to see her take on Big Bucks in the world hurdle but will be happy out if she wins her 3rd mares hurdle on the bounce :nana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... :lol Nothing wrong if you think that's the banker, I was just keen on opening it up for discussion! I think this is the one festival where there isn't a shoe in like previous years with Big Bucks or a master Minded a few years ago (or Dunguib last year :rollin) Time for Rupert is as close as you will get imo with his general form, and excellent record at Cheltenham, but he is not invincible. Cue card also in the SN with course form, what looks like solid jumping at the course and form behind Menorah which in a race like the SN is outstanding Quevega must also be classed as one of the so called bankers but Sparkie May may give her a run for her money this time. I cannot wait for it though! I think now I am looking forward to it more than ever with some competitive races right out the top draw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... Would love to see her take on Big Bucks in the world hurdle This would be immense. I said in the WH thread the race looks a lot better now and one to look forward to, if she joined in it would be superb :hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torn up slip Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... :unsure Don't answer your door if you see any people in white coats. Show me another horse in the race who has not only had his preperation go exactly to plan but also pick up 7 group one races in only 11 races. Mock all you like, The horse is a serious animal and had it run here at anytime in it's prep and won in as convincing fashion as it has at home it would be clear favourite and you know it. Menorah will not have had a run in approaching 4 months by the time of the race. Peddlers it could be argued has had to wait until a little too late to get his final run and may now be faced with a jockey being sat on him who has never race ridden him. Binocular has run what can only be described as a mixed bag thus far in his prep runs including what it appears to my eyes to be being beaten fair and square by one of it's closet rivals. Hurricane fly has simply gone from strength to strength and looked fantastic in every run he has produced so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldikova Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... I also have a bet on Hurricane Fly. What you said about him being odds on if it was raced in Ireland is just crazy. There are factors to take in to consideration such as ground. Now, Binocular is a fantastic champion and can only be beaten easily if he falls, or if the ground comes up too soft. There are good talented horses in this race, that to say a horse who has no Cheltenham form should easily win it just doesn't stack up to me. If it was raced in ireland he would be nowhere near odds on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jammydodger Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... Quevega is my banker, with a saver on Sparky May. Ruby was asked last year, wot his best chance of a festival winner was, and he replied Quevega. I believe its the best odds against fav to win again this year. Also my banker bets are A media Luz and Grands Crus in the place betting market.:D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... Jeez Torn-Up-Slip, thats surprisingly far more crazy than anything i have ever said!! Hurricane Fly has beat Solwhit in small fields where he has only had 1 horse to beat as opposed to going to Cheltenham and take on Binocular, Menorah, Peddlers Cross etc etc!! Even to say he is a banker to place would be a bold statement, so many things factor into it.. How will he travel over from Ireland? How will he handle the Cheltenham track which couldnt be further from the complete opposite to Leopardstown or Punchestown? As far as i know he is rated 166 and Binocular is rated 172??? So to say he will easily beat Binocular is bonkers! He prefers soft or heavy ground and is more vulnerable on good ground so the ground will also be a big factor. Personally i think Peddlers Cross is the one to beat but no such thing as a banker in this race but i wish you luck! My own personal banker is Master Minded, i took the 5/2 available i think it is a cracking price! I know Somersby ran it tremendously close last time out but thats as close as it will ever get to it, im still convinced Somersby needs further.. It is such a joy to watch, its jumping is spectacular, Big Zeb is probably the biggest danger but i think Master Minded will have kicked for home before Zeb gets going and if Zeb is alongside Master Minded, i think Master Minded's jumping will win it for him. With a horse that jumps so well, travels so well, picks up so well and also has sheer guts and stick its neck out when it needs to, this is my personal Banker for Cheltenham!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... Interesting debate re Hurricane Fly. Given he has won his two races over hurdles on good ground (one g/s), you're assuming he's better on soft. Don't forget, one of them was from a long-lay off and he always improves for the run. As for small fields, he has won twice in fields off eleven and once in a field of twenty-two. When a generally unfancied 11/4 shot this season, he still cantered all over Solwhit over 20f and put the race to bed nicely. He got 20f as a four year old I think, in France so I highly doubt he'll have any stamina issues. Although I do think it's a bit far too say he's a massive class above his rivals, the way he goes about his business, to me, smacks of champion material. Handles numerous conditions, jumps well, battles and finds when asked. The main worry I have is about how he'll travel over but that's part of the risk. I'm confident he'll handle the demands of a fast pace Champion. Solwhit is possibly one of the best yardsticks at the top level. You can point to him not running well in the Champion Hurdle last year, but he was sick just days prior to it. Davy Russell was even told not to bother schooling him if I remember correctly. It's disappointing to see Binocular only really in top gear for one race. Whether or not that's just him, I think we'd all love to see a consistent Champion able to win races on any going, at any track against the best horses. HF seems to have the ability and I'd love to see him do it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billvernon Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... I find it interesting on the comments regarding Binocular - looking at his race history last year and comparing it to this year I think Binocular comes out as an improved horse this year.The Champion Hurdle is a race won by previous winners in its history so that in itself is a good thing.Binocular is proven on the Cheltenham Slope and also ran the best paced hurdle for the last couple of years also by a good margin. if he gets his ground then I think he will run to form if arriving fit and healthy - Henderson has his team firing at the moment I think this may be the year he wins the Champion Jumps trainer from P.Nicholls - I think Binocular is his best chance of a big prize at the festival and Henderson will have him tuned up to the tea.Hurricane fly if travelling over well will definetly make a race of it Willie Mullins team are showing that they are also fit as he is banging winners in at the same rate as Henderson. It will be a race to savour . I hope both horses come out of it fit and well. But factors for me are ground and course form and CD Winner is a bonus Binocular was also 3rd in the race year before so he will be there at the business end so long as ground is decent. :hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... Its all about Day 1 - Race 1. Its all about CUE CARD, even now if am honest am starting to get a touch nervous about this race, i have some very nice anti post bets but day one for me has not been kind in the past. Last year was a sore 1 on day one with Go Native flopping, but my Festival is in the hands of Sir Joe Tizzard and Sir Collin Tizzard. I went on about this horse most of last year at some point, i started backing him anti post around sep 2010 and put down my last anti post bet in Oct 2010. If he gets beat i think i'll just be watching the rest of the weeks racing on tv at night via the highlights on ch-4. A very good run for my money is almost a defo, BUT can he win ? Its going to be a cracker, whatever will be will be. Day 1 - The Supreme Novices Hurdle. CUE CARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldikova Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... All your eggs in one basket, Jimmy ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... All your eggs in one basket' date=' Jimmy ?[/quote'] Yipp. I have £100 e/w aswell on What a Friend in the gold cup, but took 12/1 and the bet just looks stupid now, 50/1 can be found at Hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldikova Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... I don't blame you for having a bet on What a Friend. Nicholls has a convincing habit of talking up horses and making their prices look good. He has been at it all season. He puts too much emphasis on breathing operations. Couldn't you lay Cue Card off and still get a good amount if he won ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... I don't blame you for having a bet on What a Friend. Nicholls has a convincing habit of talking up horses and making their prices look good. He has been at it all season. He puts too much emphasis on breathing operations. Couldn't you lay Cue Card off and still get a good amount if he won ? Nah 99% of the time i just do straight wins, i might have a wee bet on Res/proof in the same race he looked good, i still think Cue Card will do the job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... I don't blame you for having a bet on What a Friend. Nicholls has a convincing habit of talking up horses and making their prices look good. He has been at it all season. He puts too much emphasis on breathing operations. Couldn't you lay Cue Card off and still get a good amount if he won ? I know i still think we aint seen the best of WAF but there is a big difference in picking up £1700 for a GC win when all i will think about ''IF'' he did win is it should be over £5000, nice but sore at the same time for jumping in early and taking 12/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldikova Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... I'm not even sure if i've laid a horse either. I'd be more inclined to back something else in the same race that i see as a main danger. Something in this Supreme is going to put in a big performance apart from Cue Card. I think along the lines of all my bets being probable losers. An awful lot can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Needle Nose Ned Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Re: Your festival banker this year... Ghizao in the Arkle, loves Cheltenham and his form this season looks rock solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts