UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February

[Thales]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February I think that the match between Lyon and Madrid will be pretty tight. As many of you already pointed, there isn’t much value in Real Madrid’s victory. So I’m gonna aim high odds here with low stake. Lyon (+1) to draw @3.70. If Mourinho really starts the game with Alonso, Kedhira and Diarra, I see value in HT/FT – Draw/Madrid @4.50. First half should be a midfield battle with very few chances for both sides. Lyon know that if they don’t get 3 points at home, they’re not going forward in CL, so they’ll try to push in second half and will give Madrid plenty of space for the counter attacks. In my point of view, correct score 0-1 is also an interesting bet.

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February

I think that the match between Lyon and Madrid will be pretty tight. As many of you already pointed' date=' there isn’t much value in Real Madrid’s victory. So I’m gonna aim high odds here with low stake. [b']Lyon (+1) to draw @3.70. If Mourinho really starts the game with Alonso, Kedhira and Diarra, I see value in HT/FT – Draw/Madrid @4.50. First half should be a midfield battle with very few chances for both sides. Lyon know that if they don’t get 3 points at home, they’re not going forward in CL, so they’ll try to push in second half and will give Madrid plenty of space for the counter attacks. In my point of view, correct score 0-1 is also an interesting bet.

Good point and I think that 0-0 draw at half time is a very likely result. Lyon kept clean sheet in theri last 3 home games in League 1. Even though Real Madrid IMO is better than teams in League 1, when playing away Mourinho focuses on defense first. Real can snatch a narrow 1-0 win with a late goal, like they did earlier this season against Auxerre. First Half: Lyon clean sheet @ 1.90 Ladbrokes looks interesting and it is almost the same price as Lyon +1.

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February Another bet I like based on my previous post are the following time of goal markets offered by William Hill: 1st Goal to be scored 31st minute and over @ 2.20 and 46th minute and over @ 3.50, or if you expect a very tight game you can take 61st and over @ 6.00 or even 76th and over @ 11.00. However, this one might be tricky, because I checked Real Madrid recent games where they snatched narrow 1-0 win. In most of them they scored their only goal early in the game.

[DoobleDutch]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February

Card market is a very tricky one IMO' date=' it's the same as corners. You never know how the game will go, and referee is Wofgang Stark, who is very strict referee who doesn't show many cards often.[/quote'] Well, no market is 'easy', but I have had decent success with the cards (contrary to corners). 1st legs are nervous games, Real is keen to get a result after those years of losing to Lyon, they got at least 3 cards in each away game in group stages (and even 6 in Ajax-Real, leading to 2 reds), while Lyon got two yellows on average. Last year, both legs of the same match-up ended up with 4 yellows. I think Lyon will have a fairly hard time tonight, and the defense is likely to have to commit fouls to prevent dangerous chances for guests. In the same time, Real could push a bit too hard and commit fouls as well. Some Real players are quick-tempered, and a foul from Lyon can always macho-escalate and lead to both players getting booked. It is @1.85 on asian lines (b365), ie. @1.83 without the ~2% fees. I find it too short a price, since exactly 4 cards isn't unlikely at all, to me. Hence, I would want either the line at over 4, or a better price for the 4.5. In fact, I'd rather bet on over 5 with a higher price, in case the game ran amuck.

[Atko]

I'm not really in a position to comment in depth on Real Madrid - I know them but not intimately - but here's a few words on Lyon. Evidently, they are a good home side in the CL. They don't lose many game in general at the Gerland and play a defensive brand of football against bigger teams. They have a very solid keeper in Lloris, Toulalan and Kallstrom will look to close off all midfield avenues and Gourcuff will probe away in the hole, trying to free Delgado, Gomis and Bastos. A couple of things put me off throwing cash on Lyon, however. Their central defensive partnership of Cris and Lovren looks susceptible to quality forwards. Cris is in there because he keeps the defence organised, but his powers have waned a little. This is not the Cris of a few years ago - see the mistake he made that lead to a Nancy penalty on Friday. Lovren's young and has raw potential but can be a little erratic. So there's an issue for me there. Secondly, Lisandro is injured. Not been as prolific as he was last season but he's a big game player, a man who turns it on for these occasions. He's the only player in this squad, and I include Bastos and Gourcuff, who can turn a game on a sixpence. Gomis scores in Ligue 1, so does Briand, but this is Madrid, the top echelon of the game. I'd feel a whole lot more comfortable if Lopez was available. Don't be fooled by Lyon's win on Friday. Nancy are a mess and capitulated late in the second half. Until then, Lyon had been vilified a little in France, a group of players that so far has underachieved. They come into this in good heart and obviously defeated Real last year, but I still wouldn't be comfortable with cash on them. They could, of course, win this, or more probably, hold Real to a draw, but players such as Adebayor, Ronaldo and Benzema have the ability to conjure a goal from very little. Under 2.5 goals would have been my bet, but the price is way too skinny. A game to watch for the pleasure of watching football, but financially, I think you can make easier money elsewhere today.

[Chris-UK]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February Like alot of people, i think underestimateing FC Copenhagen...i know chelsea are a good team but there not in excellent form home and away. Copenhagen have been playing well in there friendlies games over the past months..even beating rosenborg 5-0..i know friendlies are not the same as CL but look at sparta praha against liverpool last week..that was there first game back from there winter break and 0-0 result with liverpool. I hope Copenhagen can atleast score a goal or 2 and make this game intresting:clap

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February

A game to watch for the pleasure of watching football' date=' but financially, I think you can make easier money elsewhere today.[/quote'] Agree with that. After making my own research and reading people's opinions here I have more questions than aswers regarding this one. Can't take Under 2.5 Goals at this price either, unless in a double with something else. Conclusion: NO BET

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February

I think odds or Copenhagen are too good to ignore. They qualified from a tough group and created problems to Barcelona' date=' both home and away. Even though they have not played a competitive game since last year they did really well in friendly games. They scored 19 goals in 6 games and [b']I see them scoring at least a goal here. I think they can produce a surprise here. However, odds on Copenhagen +1 are @ 2.10-2.20, while both to score which IMO is a safer bet is offered @ 2.00-2.10.

Copenhagen - Chelsea Even though Copenhagen is a good team I can't see them winning to nil, because it will be a huge advantage, because many teams were able to score at Stamford Bridge and Chelsea know that. Against strikers like Torres and Drogba I really can't see Copenhagen keeping a clean sheet. Both to Score @ 2.00 (5 units) Ladbrokes

[Delahicka]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February Copenhagen have an excellent home record this season , unbeaten in their league and the champions league which includes Barcelona, they also stuck it up to Barca in the camp nou were Barca struggled to finish them off only wrapping up a 2-0 win late in the game. I imagine an out of form Chelsea side in these below 0 temperatures will also struggle. I going for Copenhagen -1 but dont be surprised if they get more.

[Penguin]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February Chelsea v Copenhagen While chelsea's quality isnt to be doubted their form certainly is. They have failed to score in the 90 in their last 3 games, because of this and the fact that chelsea would happily take a bore or low scoring draw to take them back to stamford bridge im keeping well away from this in terms of backing chelsea or over 2.5. On the other hand chelsea have shown themselves to be very unpredictable in front of goal, in poor patch they have been through in the last few games they still manged to win 4-0 and 4-2 away at tough opposition, bolton and sunderland. So for me this game is too tough to call in any deal of certainty.

[Rick121212]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February FC Copenhagen vs. Chelsea - Under 2.5 goals @ 1.73 (Stan James) FC Copenhagen have done an extremely good job of making it to the last 16 in the Champion's League and will want to give a good account of themselves in this tie with Chelsea. They will probably look to keep it tight and not concede and eventually attack and try to grab a win, but I think Chelsea, even though they are not in the best form, will manage defensively to contain FC Copenhagen. However, Chelsea should struggle to score. FC Copenhagen can keep the game low-scoring and with Chelsea's troubles lately a 1-0 either way or 1-1, 0-0 wouldn't surprise me.

[Rick121212]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February Lyon vs. Real Madrid - Lyon (+0.5) @ 2.00 (Bet 365) Real Madrid are definitely the stronger team here but I'm surprised they are such favourites, with Lyon to win @ 4.33. Lyon are no pushovers, and at home will be extremely ready for this game. I'm sure they want to get a result to take to the Bernabeu and will look to win this. I also feel Mourinho would probably be happy to take a draw into the 2nd leg and would be surprised if they played very offensively here. The value for me is on Lyon to win or draw and even though a Real Madrid wouldn't surprise me massivley, I do feel Lyon can get the job done.

[gavanski]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February Although Chelsea is in a very bad form and FC Copenhagen being a very solid team that manage not to lose against Barca at home it's hard to bet against a a team that has an attacking force consisting of Anelka, Malouda, Torres and Drogba. All of them could score anytime. Another thing that could go in Chelsea's favor is that Ancelotti has already proven himself with Milan in knockout stages of Champions league. This is last chance for Chelsea to save this season because they already messed up in Premiership and they will go with full strength tonight. That's why I believe that Chelsea has the ability to make positive result tonight and I think they will do it.

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February

Although Chelsea is in a very bad form and FC Copenhagen being a very solid team that manage not to lose against Barca at home it's hard to bet against a a team that has an attacking force consisting of Anelka' date=' Malouda, Torres and Drogba. All of them could score anytime. Another thing that could go in Chelsea's favor is that Ancelotti has already proven himself with Milan in knockout stages of Champions league. This is last chance for Chelsea to save this season because [b']they already messed up in Premiership and they will go with full strength tonight. That's why I believe that Chelsea has the ability to make positive result tonight and I think they will do it.

Add to this FA Cup and Carling Cup.

[Chris-UK]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February

Copenhagen - Chelsea Even though Copenhagen is a good team I can't see them winning to nil, because it will be a huge advantage, because many teams were able to score at Stamford Bridge and Chelsea know that. Against strikers like Torres and Drogba I really can't see Copenhagen keeping a clean sheet. Both to Score @ 2.00 (5 units) Ladbrokes

luiz are cup tied for CL remember so wont have them player to use.:ok not sure with torres?

[blackcrow]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February Copenhagen +0.5 @ 2.10 pinnacle Plenty of pressure on Ancelotti as his talent laden squad is struggling to put a decent run of results together. Recent draws with Fulham (0-0) and Everton (1-1 in extra time and losing on penalties) has seen this one formidable side lose its edge it had over teams, and they will have a tough time of it in Denmark, especially as the temperatures will be much colder than what they are used to at present. Copenhagen beat Panathinaikos 3-1, drew 1-1 with Barcelona and beat Rubin Kazan 1-0 in three home games in the group stages, while Chelsea lost 1-0 at Marseille, won at 2-0 at Spartak Moscow, and won 4-1 at Zilina, but these wins occured when they had some form. Their strikers are not putting the chances away, while quite a few of their players are not as dominant as they used to be. A further note is that Chelsea have only won 2 of their last 15 Champions League away games in the knockout stages, so their away form is not that strong. Believe they wil be happy to take a draw back to Stamford Bridge, so like Copenhagen to get at least a draw here themselves Real Madrid @ 1.91 pinnacle Though Real Madrid have struggled when playing against Lyon (3 draws and 3 losses in 6 games), and especially in France (all 3 losses without scoring a goal), but they have a much better side here to finally get the win as they have a much more tactical-minded coach (Mourinho) who has shown in the past he can mastermind wins when it seemed less likely. With additions like Khedira, Di María, and Ozil, to their team, to back up Ronaldo when he goes forward, there is plenty of class about this team who can do well here.

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February

luiz are cup tied for CL remember so wont have them player to use.:ok not sure with torres?

Torres will play because William Hill offers Torres anytime scorer with enhanced odds @ 2.50.

[DoobleDutch]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February Tough to find value in today CL games :|

[Psychic]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February FC København - Chelsea I think that there are signs pointing towards a goalshy game tonight. Chelsea have struggled to score lately, and due to the missing match practise and fitness of the Danes (due to the winter break), I can see them struggling too to create chances. The crucial moments for the home side will undoubtedly be the last 30 mins or so when Chelsea's superior fitness level will give them an additional advantage. In my eyes there are a few bets that might stand out: Under 2.5 goals The two sides drawing at half time The first goal of the match to be scored after the 60th minute (if any bookmakers have such bets on offer at all) And yes, on paper Chelsea have quite a few lethal strikers but I doubt that Ancelotti will field more than two at a time. Recent reports suggest that Chelsea will start with Anelka and Torres up front.

[stefanos56]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February Chelsea and Real Madrid double: 5/2 with StanJames I'm not one of those mug punters blindly backing the big clubs here. Value in doubling these up I think for following reasons: Chelsea: Sure, I totally understand people's reluctance to back Chelsea lately, however, in fairness, their most recent games haven't been easy (derby v Fulham at Craven Cottage were Fulham are strong again, against a revitalised Liverpool and were unlcky not to get past Everton). They are also adjusting to Torres coming in, but once he gets into his stride things will improve dramatically. Considering Ancelloti knows he needs to go through to save his job, and his players know they are running out of chances to win this elusive prize, I just think Chelsea's determination and motivation will be enough to bring out the quality needed to win this. When you combine Ancellotti's and Chelsea's recent history in this competition they should really be a winning combo to at least get to the semi's. Copenhagen haven't played competitively for a while either and I see a tight win for Chelsea tonight. Real Madrid: I know the record between these two teams but Mourinho is usually the man to break hoo-doo's, historical records etc. Also, in the recent games when these teams have played each other you could argue that each time Lyon were better than the team they have now, and Real weren't as strong as the team they have now. Bookies usually over-estimate these two teams to the point of ridding punters of any value but I think the recent form of Chelsea and Lyon's record against Real has made the bookies a little complacent here and I feel this is time to strike. Good luck all.

[stefanos56]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February Chelsea to win 1-0: Further to my comments above, I fancy Chelsea to win 1-0 in a dogged affair and am taking the 11/2 with Bluesquare.

[garyfinny]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February To be honest, I can't look past Chelsea tonight. I watched FC Copenhagen live in December and in my view are not even Premier League level and Copenhagen are certainly spoilt in their league having to constantly play teams at a much worse level than them. Given that Chelsea would be much under odds on against the worst Premiership team, I think the markets are a little jittery about Chelsea's poor form. I'm very much like Jamacian here, don't have much analysis but the odds represent great value for me and I would price Chelsea around the 1.7 region. Cold weather might have frozen the Catalan giants but Chelsea will be well used to it.

[Chris-UK]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February

Torres will play because William Hill offers Torres anytime scorer with enhanced odds @ 2.50.

lets see how he does tonight if in starting line up:ok

[nicko]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February

I'm not really in a position to comment in depth on Real Madrid - I know them but not intimately - but here's a few words on Lyon. Evidently, they are a good home side in the CL. They don't lose many game in general at the Gerland and play a defensive brand of football against bigger teams. They have a very solid keeper in Lloris, Toulalan and Kallstrom will look to close off all midfield avenues and Gourcuff will probe away in the hole, trying to free Delgado, Gomis and Bastos. A couple of things put me off throwing cash on Lyon, however. Their central defensive partnership of Cris and Lovren looks susceptible to quality forwards. Cris is in there because he keeps the defence organised, but his powers have waned a little. This is not the Cris of a few years ago - see the mistake he made that lead to a Nancy penalty on Friday. Lovren's young and has raw potential but can be a little erratic. So there's an issue for me there. Secondly, Lisandro is injured. Not been as prolific as he was last season but he's a big game player, a man who turns it on for these occasions. He's the only player in this squad, and I include Bastos and Gourcuff, who can turn a game on a sixpence. Gomis scores in Ligue 1, so does Briand, but this is Madrid, the top echelon of the game. I'd feel a whole lot more comfortable if Lopez was available. Don't be fooled by Lyon's win on Friday. Nancy are a mess and capitulated late in the second half. Until then, Lyon had been vilified a little in France, a group of players that so far has underachieved. They come into this in good heart and obviously defeated Real last year, but I still wouldn't be comfortable with cash on them. They could, of course, win this, or more probably, hold Real to a draw, but players such as Adebayor, Ronaldo and Benzema have the ability to conjure a goal from very little. Under 2.5 goals would have been my bet, but the price is way too skinny. A game to watch for the pleasure of watching football, but financially, I think you can make easier money elsewhere today.

Very helpful as usual :ok I still think all value is with Lyon though. Your analysis is mostly based on your French experience. I am not qualified to argue with you there, yet a little thought bugs me while I was reading your post - IMO the French League in the last 4 seasons is by far more competative than Primera. It is not a one-team show anymore ( incl. the last title-season by Lyon ), at the moment 5 teams are having Champions ambitions and chances. When was the last time this happened in Spain? Two giants and that's it....At best you might have a team spoiling the party for one of the giants, but 2 or more teams - never...Valencia with Rafa, Villareal with Pellegrinni, Sevilla with Ramos, the Atletico Double in the 90's ( I think with Antic )... If what I post above is right, then tonight's game has different aspects. The simple thinking might lead to wrong ideas though - Real have only Barca to watch at home, so they will give more attention to CL. How true is this though? It has been like this forever yet : -- Real failed to pass this round with God knows how many quality players and Managers, in God knows how many years now; -- the shortage of quality competition at home is building on, but I am not sure how positive that is to the team play and spirit. Week in and week out Lyon have to fight for every point now; -- what team spirit at all? Iker and Ramos are one thing, they will die for Real if needed. Look at Barca's youth school - the top three players in the world this year ''breath'' Barca since they were kids. Real lost that and they have to compensate with quality buys. Still, you can easily divide the team in the groups - a group of players, who want to build up a career in Real and proud with it, and a group of ''merchandise heroes''. Jose M will clean up Real in the summer, no doubt. Jose M is among the top Managers in the world, no doubt. A genius? Maybe, so is Sir AF, yet Man Utd lost to Wolves. So did Real in Osasuna, There is a common thing in every game Real slipped in this season - close, tight marking, litterary on the edge of the yellow card - Levante, Almeria, Osasuna. My main bet here is with the Cards, Over 4,5 bet365 Real might as well win this one, they might even beat the higher H'caps, but if any logic in the football at all, Lyon should not lose tonight : -- a compact team, with good Manager; -- above-the-average quality of players by all Euro standards; -- massive CL experience and excellent H2H record... Atko, you are right, a game to watch. I don't think it will be a game to enjoy though ;) I find odds offered by bet365 weird, but I will get involved at HT on the in-play, or just before HT: For instance : Lyon at HT @ 4,50, Lyon to score first @ 2,62, Lyon to win either Half @ 2,25, Lyon to score ONLY @ 6,50, Lyon Team Goals Over 1,5 @ 3,75

[spkutano]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February FC Kopenhagen vs Chelsea Pick: Draw Odds 3.43 Pinnacle Probable starting eleven: FC Kopenhagen: Wiland; Jorgensen, Antonsson, Wendt, Pospech; Claudemir, Bolanos, Kvist, Vingaard; Gronkjaer; N’Doye Chelsea: Cech; Bosingwa, Ivanovic, Terry, Cole; Essien, Mikel, Lampard; Anelka, Torres, Malouda. According to the bookmakers Chelsea is a hot favorite here. But I don't think so and I am going with draw. The main reason for my pick is determined by the fact that both teams will be satisfied with a draw here. FC Kopenhagen as this will mean a good result for them. It is always a success when a small team like FC Kopenhagen managed to stay unbeaten against some giant like Chelsea. And speaking of Chelsea, they also will be satisfied with draw as the second leg will be played in London, in front of their fans. Now the question is if FC Kopenhagen is able to stay unbeaten. I think yes. FC Kopenhagen played very good at home in group stage of Champions League and they have two victories and one draw in three home matches. The victories were against Panathinaikos (3:1) and Rubin Kazan (1:0), while the draw was against the best team in the world Barcelona. To play a draw against Barcelona, to win against Rubin Kazan and Panathinaikos, that is great result. At the end I will mention that FC Kopenhagen is complete for this match, while Chelsea is without David Luiz (cup-tied as he played for Benfica in UEFA Champions League), Yuri Zhirkov (injured) and Yossi Benayoun (injured).

[Atko]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February

Very helpful as usual :ok I still think all value is with Lyon though. Your analysis is mostly based on your French experience. I am not qualified to argue with you there, yet a little thought bugs me while I was reading your post - IMO the French League in the last 4 seasons is by far more competative than Primera. It is not a one-team show anymore ( incl. the last title-season by Lyon ), at the moment 5 teams are having Champions ambitions and chances. When was the last time this happened in Spain? Two giants and that's it....At best you might have a team spoiling the party for one of the giants, but 2 or more teams - never...Valencia with Rafa, Villareal with Pellegrinni, Sevilla with Ramos, the Atletico Double in the 90's ( I think with Antic )... If what I post above is right, then tonight's game has different aspects. The simple thinking might lead to wrong ideas though - Real have only Barca to watch at home, so they will give more attention to CL. How true is this though? It has been like this forever yet : -- Real failed to pass this round with God knows how many quality players and Managers, in God knows how many years now; -- the shortage of quality competition at home is building on, but I am not sure how positive that is to the team play and spirit. Week in and week out Lyon have to fight for every point now; -- what team spirit at all? Iker and Ramos are one thing, they will die for Real if needed. Look at Barca's youth school - the top three players in the world this year ''breath'' Barca since they were kids. Real lost that and they have to compensate with quality buys. Still, you can easily divide the team in the groups - a group of players, who want to build up a career in Real and proud with it, and a group of ''merchandise heroes''. Jose M will clean up Real in the summer, no doubt. Jose M is among the top Managers in the world, no doubt. A genius? Maybe, so is Sir AF, yet Man Utd lost to Wolves. So did Real in Osasuna, There is a common thing in every game Real slipped in this season - close, tight marking, litterary on the edge of the yellow card - Levante, Almeria, Osasuna. My main bet here is with the Cards, Over 4,5 bet365 Real might as well win this one, they might even beat the higher H'caps, but if any logic in the football at all, Lyon should not lose tonight : -- a compact team, with good Manager; -- above-the-average quality of players by all Euro standards; -- massive CL experience and excellent H2H record... Atko, you are right, a game to watch. I don't think it will be a game to enjoy though ;) I find odds offered by bet365 weird, but I will get involved at HT on the in-play, or just before HT: For instance : Lyon at HT @ 4,50, Lyon to score first @ 2,62, Lyon to win either Half @ 2,25, Lyon to score ONLY @ 6,50, Lyon Team Goals Over 1,5 @ 3,75

Very interesting and well-reasoned post nicko :ok The French league is certainly more competitive than the Spanish league - the question is whether it has more quality than La Liga? Personally, I couldn't answer that question with much conviction, although I think the majority would claim that the top 5 in Spain have more quality than the top 5 in France. In terms of this match, I still stand by my original stance. This is a game to be observed. Enjoyed? Well, if you enjoy the chess-like nature of two-legged football, then certainly it is one to keep an eye on. Aesthetically, I don't see it being a success, but you never know. French teams are inherently conservative until the match opens up, moreso against "top" European sides. An early goal would change that, otherwise I think we'll see a tight encounter. Good luck to those who play this evening :ok

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February

Well, no market is 'easy', but I have had decent success with the cards (contrary to corners). 1st legs are nervous games, Real is keen to get a result after those years of losing to Lyon, they got at least 3 cards in each away game in group stages (and even 6 in Ajax-Real, leading to 2 reds), while Lyon got two yellows on average. Last year, both legs of the same match-up ended up with 4 yellows. I think Lyon will have a fairly hard time tonight, and the defense is likely to have to commit fouls to prevent dangerous chances for guests. In the same time, Real could push a bit too hard and commit fouls as well. Some Real players are quick-tempered, and a foul from Lyon can always macho-escalate and lead to both players getting booked. It is @1.85 on asian lines (b365), ie. @1.83 without the ~2% fees. I find it too short a price, since exactly 4 cards isn't unlikely at all, to me. Hence, I would want either the line at over 4, or a better price for the 4.5. In fact, I'd rather bet on over 5 with a higher price, in case the game ran amuck.

Lyon - Real Madrid I never really tried betting on card markets, but decided to give it a try. Your reasoning is good and I also made some research and found out that 6 out of last 7 Real Madrid away games produced plenty of cards. The same can be said about 5 out of last 6 Lyon home games. Over 45 Booking Points @ 2.05 (3 units) William Hill

[jazzmorris]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February Copenhagen V Chelsea Draw. Copenhagen are good at home and held Barca in the group stages, Chelsea are poor at the moment and are struggling to score or gel as a squad. Either 0-0 or 1-1

[DoobleDutch]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February

Lyon - Real Madrid I never really tried betting on card markets, but decided to give it a try. Your reasoning is good and I also made some research and found out that 6 out of last 7 Real Madrid away games produced plenty of cards. The same can be said about 5 out of last 6 Lyon home games. Over 45 Booking Points @ 2.05 (3 units) William Hill

Yeah, I would take it @2 - sigh.

[Ricochet]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 22 February I have watched Copenhagen closely this season as I have been impressed with them, and I have a feeling that they can get a result tonight. The only doubt for me will be their match fitness and sharpness as they have not played a competetive game for quite some time. They are a very organised outfit and have more than held their own at home, the most noteable result being a 1-1 draw against Barcelona. Although Chelsea have the same squad as previous years, and have in fact added, they seem to have many players who have had their best years and look like a team in decline. The loss in the FA Cup at the weekend has only added pressure on the side and their manager so I am optimistic of an 'upset' here. In my opinion Chelsea have never been a technically gifted side; their previous success was down to sheer physical strength and power to me! The squad has aged and Chelsea's prescence is not as overwhelming as it has been in previous season's....they have lost that fear factor. Copenhagen are a very hard-working side and I think Chelsea may struggle to match them tonight. Copenhagen will be well up for this tie and will need the home win if they are to have a serious chance of qualification. A safer bet might be the Double Chance, Copenhagen-Draw @ Evs (BetFred). My Bets: Copenhagen v Chelsea: Copenhagen @ 4/1 (Victor Chandler) - 1pt I'm also having another specualtive double: Copenhagen & Lyon @ 21/1 (Victor Chandler) - 1pt This double just jumped out at me straight away and for me it is worth a try with small stakes. A lot of this is based on the previous meetings between Lyon & Real Madrid and I know that with Mourinho as manager history will probably count for nothing. Also Lisandro Lopez misses the game which is a big blow for Lyon but I'm happy to stick with them as they have plenty of talent and will no doubt raise their game.