Aykay1 Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Big game tonight for obvious reasons. Great value on over 2.5 goals on 2 sides who are great going forward but suspect at the back. The game at the emirates earlier in the season perfectly highlighted the characteristics of both teams and I don't see any reason why anything will change today. 15 pts over 2.5 goals @ 1.97 betfair anyone who saw the Liverpool game on Sunday will have seen that koscielny remains the focal point from our set pieces in the absence of vermaelen. He represents great value still. Koscielny to score 2pts @ 16.5 betfair Koscielny to score first 1 pt @ 44.0 betfair wilshere looks like being rested tonight so diaby will retain his place and he is overpriced at 10.5 diaby to score 1pt @ 10.5 betfair cmon you gooners!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Tottenham haven't lost to any team in the top half of the table and have only lost one league game at home all season. With that in mind and bearing in mind our current form, 2.24 on tottenham to win (draw no bet) looks a decent price :( tottenham to win (draw no bet) 10 pts 2.24 betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted April 24, 2011 Author Share Posted April 24, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Today's game is one that could go either way, or finish a draw so I'm leaving it alone. Just the usual goalscorer bet. Koscielny to score first 1pt 46.0 betfair koscielny to score 2pts 14.5 betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted April 24, 2011 Author Share Posted April 24, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! I just want this season to end now. :puke At least the thread figures are more healthy than Arsenal's form figures. Staked: 381pts Returns: 478.48 pts Profit: +97.48 pts Yield: 25.6% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! On current form I can't see us winning today and a draw would probably do Man Utd. I'd expect a low scoring draw today with Man utd keeping it tight at the back hoping to catch us on the counter. Ars/man utd draw @ 3.5 betfair 10 pts over half of the goals we have conceded this season have come from set pieces. Vidic looks Man Utds main threat there. Vidic to score anytime: 1pt @ 13.5 betfair Koscielny to score anytime 2pts @ 17.5 betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Under 2.5 goals @ 1.87 betfair 10 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted May 8, 2011 Author Share Posted May 8, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! I think i will give today's game a miss. Too close to call. Even the regular Koscielny bet may have to be discarded as there is talk that Vermaelen may start today and given that he was our main threat from set pieces, it takes away Koscielny's threat somewhat. I may be back if we score first, in which case I will probably lay us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted May 8, 2011 Author Share Posted May 8, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Ok just seen the teams and vermaelen is on the bench so I'll have a play on koscielny. Also Huth has 6 goals thus season and will be a threat fro set pieces and Delaps throws, which we have historically struggled with. I have just read that Stoke are unbeaten at home this year so we look a touch short especially as we are missing fabregas and nasri. Koscielny anytime 2pts @ 15.5 Huth anytime 2pts @ 9.0 lay arsenal @ 1.88 for a 10 pt liability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted May 15, 2011 Author Share Posted May 15, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Small profit vs Stoke, in what was a pathetic performance in all honesty. Onto today and i'm expecting an open, attacking game. Arsenal's strengths and weaknesses are well documented so I wont go over them again but a glance at Aston Villa's recent fixtures suggests they suffer from a similar profile in that they carry plenty of threat going forward, but are shaky defensively. In 5 of the last 6 matches, both sides have scored. Arsenal have an identical record. Vermaelen is likely to be back today and i'd say its likely he isnt 100% fit yet, having not played for 9 months. Both teams to score 20 pts @ 5/6 Stan James On the outright market, i'd say we are short at 1.41 on betfair. We arent in a good run of form at all, winning something like 2 of our last 10 games and were really poor on Sunday at Stoke. Lay Arsenal 24.38 pts @ 1.41 for a 10 pt liability Richard Dunne is a threat from set pieces, our achilles heel this season (over half of the goals we have conceded have been from a set piece.) Dunne to score 1 pt @ 27.0 betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! A decent day at the office there AK :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted May 16, 2011 Author Share Posted May 16, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Cheers Kev. Good financially but not for the emotions! Whilst at the game I had £2 on the Bent, 2-1 scorecast as well - that is the first scorecast in about 10 years that I have won so that was a bit of consolation for what happened on the pitch. Really need the season to end now. Figures: Staked: 449pts Returns: 589.59 pts Profit: +140.59 pts Yield: 31.3% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted May 22, 2011 Author Share Posted May 22, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Last game of the season today and I think its worth taking into consideration that Fulham are in pole position to claim the Europa League place for Fair Play. So I cant see them flying into tackles this afternoon. The game is a bit of a dead rubber and i'd be surprised if there was more than 3 cards as per bet365s quotes. Under 3.5 cards 10 points @ 8/11 bet365 I must be mad backing us to win considering the form we are in at the moment but if Fulham allow us to play, as per my hunch, then we should be hard to keep quiet. Arsenal to win 10 points @ 6/5 bluesq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 13, 2011 Author Share Posted August 13, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! The both lost so the figures as at end of season were: Staked: 469pts Returns: 589.59 pts Profit: +120.59 pts Yield: 25.7% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 13, 2011 Author Share Posted August 13, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! I cant see how we are backable today given the way we finished last season, how we have underperformed pre season and the fact we are missing Cesc, Nasri, Wilshere from our midfield. Thankfully Newcastle arent in great shape themselves but i'd have little hesitation laying us away from home at 2.18. Lay Arsenal 8.48 pts @ 2.18 betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 13, 2011 Author Share Posted August 13, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! I'm discarding the weekly Koscielny bet as Vermaelen is back now and he is likely to be the main target from set pieces now. Despite last year's 4-4 draw, I'm tempted by the under 2.5 goals bet, due to the apparent lack of creativity in our midfield and the fact that Vermaelen's presence will help reduce the amount of defensive catastrophes that were present in that match. Arsenal v Newcastle under 2.5 goals: 10 pts @ betfair 2.12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Two winners yesterday in a predictable performance. Staked: 489pts Returns: 629.27 pts Profit: +140.77 pts Yield: 28.8% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Well done yesterday AK :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Cheers Kev. Onto Tuesday's CL qualifier and last nights performance didnt fill me with any more confidence i'm afraid. There is a massive lack of creativity in our team at the moment, which means we are likely to find teams difficult to break down. Udinese, you'd imagine are a better defensive side than Newcastle, which obviously doesnt bode well. The odds on an Arsenal win, are very skinny. 1.51 available to back and 1.53 available to lay, which is where the value lies. Lay Arsenal: 19.24 points @ 1.52 betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 28, 2011 Author Share Posted August 28, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! A couple of missed opportunities last week. I wanted to lay us vs Liverpool at the weekend at 2.10 but we drifted to 2.50 and i thought that was about right so I left it. Similarly, i fancied us in Udinese midweek as I dont rate Italian football very much, but was expecting better odds than the 2.8 available so i left that too. Today, we are right up against it with a badly depleted side. Man Utd have started the season well having strengthened over the summer. I'd put us on a par with Tottenham at the moment and if you look at how they were steamrollered in the second half last weekend, it doesnt bode too well. I'd expect a line up, assuming Sagna hasnt recovered from illness of: Chesney Jenkinson, Djourou, Koscielny, Vermaelen Coquelin, Ramsey, Rosicky Arshavin, Van Persie, Walcott which lookes very weak. Man Utd (-1) @ 7/5 Stan James - 20 points Man Utd to win 3-1 @ 12/1 paddypower - 1.5 points Despite the negativity, Robin Van Persie has scored something like 23 goals in 26 games (i'm willing to stand corrected on that but the figures are in that region). Therefore, despite the opposition today and the danger he might be starved of service, I think the price on him to score anytime is a touch big at 100/30 with coral. Van Persie to score anytime @ 100/30 coral - 7 points Van Persie to score first @ 10/1 coral - 1.5 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thfc Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Great call AK, hope the winnings soften the blow of the result! Not a good day for either of our teams:sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! 2 nice selections there AK :clap Just a little out on the score line. ;):lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 28, 2011 Author Share Posted August 28, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Cheers lads :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 29, 2011 Author Share Posted August 29, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Updated figures before the international break. Staked: 529pts Returns: 707.60 pts Profit: +178.60 pts Yield: +33.8% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 10, 2011 Author Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! I'm aware i'm being rather pessimistic this season but we are consistently being underpriced by the bookies so it leaves me no option really. The theme continues today with a bet on Swansea in the Asian Handicap. They were the most defensively solid side of those that came up and havent disgraced themselves so far with 2 x 0-0 draws and a loss away at Man City. It is apparent the problems Arsenal have had offensively in the first 3 games of the season and whilst the addition of Arteta should help here, he cant do it on his own. We look a side short on confidence at the moment and although there is an argument to say the new signings will give the place a lift, i'd like to see some evidence before I get involved at odds of 1.33. I can see Swansea lining up quite defensively here and we could easily struggle to break them down. Victor Chander are offering 5/6 about Swansea (+1.5) and I think thats a decent bet. If they score then we are really up against it to beat that handicap Swansea (+1.5): 10 points @ 5/6 Victor Chandler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 10, 2011 Author Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! A couple of goalscorer bets. In the absence of Vermaelen, im happy to restart the Koscielny bet that did okj for me last season. And i will introduce Mertesacker who got a reputation as a threat from set pieces at Werder Bremen. Laurent Koscielny to score first goal: 0.5pts @ 32.0 betfair Per Mertesacker to score first goal 0.5pts @ 27.0 betfair Laurent Koscielny to score anytime: 1pt @ 13.5 betfair Per Mertesacker to score anytime: 1pt @ 13.0 betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! A small profit after tha goalscorer bets ate into it a bit. Thought I’d take advantage of my lunch hour to post a bet I placed last night. Arsenal to win Group F: £13.70 Lay @ 2.46 (20 points liability) A really tough group, illustrated by the fact that our Pot D opponents aren’t some Romanian minnows, but in fact are Borussia Dortmund, who ran away with the German title last season. Whilst you’d expect Olympiakos not to pose too much of a threat, Marseille are a decent side too. French champions in 2009/10, they finshed runners up to Lille last season to qualify for this competition 5 years on the trot. Ordinarily, I would still be hopeful of winning this group but this isn’t an ordinary Arsenal side. We are probably the weakest we have been in 15 years of playing in the Champions League and I’d say there isn’t much difference at all between ourselves and the German and French sides. I’d possibly give the Germans the edge. With that in mind I must lay us to win this group. We made a pigs ear of winning a much weaker group last season and could get found out. An exit at the group stage wouldn’t be a massive surprise. Arsenal are narrow favourites ahead of the Germans to win this group and I think that’s worth laying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! A half time bet: Lay Arsenal 10pts @ 2.0 betfair 1-0 up totally against the run of play. It is apparent that we are too lightweight in midfield and Dortmund are getting chances. I dont need to remind anyone of our habit of throwing away leads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 15, 2011 Author Share Posted September 15, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Staked: 552pts Returns: 744.27 pts Profit: +192.27 pts Yield: +34.8% 1 bet outstanding: Arsenal to win Group F: £13.70 Lay @ 2.46 (20 points liability) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 17, 2011 Author Share Posted September 17, 2011 Moving on from the recent negativity, I quite fancy us to get the 3 points today. I thought Blackburn may struggle this season and I wasn't overly impressed with them vs Fulham at the weekend, they don't appear to pose too much threat offensively. after a slow start, we are starting to look a bit more solid with the recent additions to the side. We wlcome back Song and Gervinho today, which is a boost. Arsenal to win: 10pts @ 10/11 ladbrokes Koscielny to score 1pt @ 15.5 betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Best forget about Saturday's performance. Onto today and the youth/squad players will get a chance. I'd be looking at the wingers to make their mark tonight, Miyachi played 12 games for Feyenoord and netted 3 times and assisted five others. He will start on the left tonight. Oxlade Chamberlian scored 10 goals for Southampton last season with a further 8 assists. More recently he has impressed for England Under 21s. He will start on the right. Both are rated very highly and should pose a threat in what, theoretically should be a comfortable victory? :unsure Miyaichi to score anytime 10 points @ 13/8 betfred Oxlade-Chamberlain to score anytime 10 points @ 7/4 betfred Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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