Aykay1 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Apologies in advance, as an element of aftertiming is necessary to introduce this thread, in that I have been predicting the outcome of Arsenal’s games this season, with rather more success than I anticipated. As some examples: - I have predicted the outcome of all of Arsenal’s last 4 games (Man Utd, Chelsea, Wigan, Birmingham) - I layed them at 1.2 when leading Wigan 2-1 the other day. I also layed us whilst leading vs Spurs at something like 1.1 having seen us throw away countless leads over the last two seasons. - I layed us at odds on vs Braga and Shakhtar away at home in the CL - I backed the 3-2 scoreline for both teams vs Spu*s with the opinion that both sides are good going forward but cant defend. - I backed us to win at WHL in the Carling Cup - I have had success twice this season backing Alex Song to score the first goal, having noted that his role this season is less defensive than last season. Prices of 85.0 and 55.0 were secured on betfair, for small stakes. It has prompted my brother to ask me why I mess around backing teams I don’t watch very often when I am in a much better position betting on Arsenal games due to watching every single game they play, reading interviews, blogs etc. I know the players, I know the teams strengths and weaknesses, and I like to think I am pretty impartial. Therefore, this thread will focus solely on all things Arsenal. There is a possibility I will use some insider knowledge from some of my work colleagues, who support an array of sides. We have season ticket holders at Blackburn, Villa, Sp*rs, West Ham and Forest amongst others! I respect their opinions on their respective teams (apart from the Spu*s fan – he’s a d!ck) and will use their views where I feel appropriate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! So here we go with Arsenal v Man City Up until Arsenal’s recent victory over Chelsea, their record against the top sides hadn’t been great. Whilst that victory came as a result of a top performance and will remove any mental block that may have been present, it was vs a Chelsea team who haven’t been at the top of their game over recent weeks. City on the other hand have had a great Xmas and New Year, winning 9 points out of 9. Arsenal have been in good form too but City are a big team with a physical midfield and defence. Whilst Arsenal seem to be able to cope with this type of side better this season, it is historically the type of team they have struggled against. Half the goals we have conceded this season have come from set pieces and City, with their size will be a danger here. I was tempted by the 5.1 about Man City winning but I think the loss of David Silva is a big one so I think a lay of Arsenal at odds-on is the call. Arsenal, notoriously inconsistent, look too short a price. 10 pts liability - LAY ARSENAL @ 1.8 (£21,239 available to lay on betfair) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Interesting idea AK, I can't bring myself to bet on my own team but logic says you should really do so becuase you know your own team best. I'm also opposing Arsenal tonight, pricedoes look a little on the short side to me. Best of luck. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Thanks Denman :ok A bit fortunate to collect there - Arsenal should really have won. Nevertheless, a good start and a +12.50 profit Onto tomorrow vs Leeds in the FA Cup: Arsenal v Leeds Nicklas Bendtner splits opinion amongst Arsenal fans. An element who think he is a bit of a carthorse and doesn’t really fit into the Arsenal team, and others who point at his goalscoring record, which to be fair, you cant really argue with. He hasn’t played much this season, partly down to injury and partly due to Chamakh settling in quicker than expected but in 464 minutes of football (just over 5 games), he has scored 4 goals. He was Arsenals 2nd highest goalscorer in the year 2010, scoring 14 goals, only 1 behind Fabregas, who scored 15. His career at Arsenal has been a bit stop start – he rarely gets a run in the side. When he did, towards the end of last season, he impressed with 9 goals in the final 13 games. What I’m trying to say is, he may look like a donkey , but he’s effective and he’s a goalscorer. He will start tomorrow and at home vs Leeds - a leaky Championship team (conceded 43 goals in 26 games) - I can see him scoring. Prices range from 1.72 (Paddy Power) to 2.3 (VC Bet). Nicklas Bendtner to score anytime: 10 points @ 2.3 VC Bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Good Luck with this one AK :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Cheers Kev! Well Bendtner had a bit of a shocker on Saturday but he got chances and i suspect he will start again on Wednesday vs Ipswich. So i'll keep the faith and go in again. Same bookie, same price. Ipswich v Arsenal Nicklas Bendtner to score anytime: 10 points @ 2.3 >VC Bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! BOL, mate. I saw the first half on Saturday and have to say that starting Bendtner deep, he was more of a midfielder than an attacker, didn't help him and things (and your bet) much. I suspect it will be crucial where Wenger starts him on Wednesday and what tasks he will be given. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Yeah he was out of position vs Leeds but no excuses for Wednesday night - he was playing up front and didnt threaten. I was going to lay us today as 1.55 looks too short baring in mind our current form but the news that Scott Parker is lilely to miss out is decisive and I will leave that for now. I will stick to the same theme as my previous bets, despite the lack of success and go for Robin Van Persie to score any time. Rested in midweek, he is certain to start up front and should be at peak fitness now, having played about 7 or 8 games after his injury lay off. A fit RVP has a good goal return: 9 goals in 16 games last season 11 in 28 games prior to that 7 in 15 prior to that. He will come up against one of the leakier defences in the division, should get chances with Nasri and Fabregas supporting and is a dedent price at 2.6 on betfair. Robin Van Persie to score anytime 10 points @ 2.6 betfair (£69 available to back) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! That was his best performance this season, 2 goals and an assist :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Almost at full strength today with only Vermaelen as a notable absentee. ------------Szczesny--------- Sagna--Djourou--Kosc--Clichy --------Song-- Wilshere---- ----------Fabregas------- Walcott--------------- Nasri- ---------Van Persie------ We have struggled to breakk teams down a bit at home this season but we look a different side with Cesc, nasri and RVp all playing and i'd expect all 3 to start today. Wigan dont seem to pose much of a goal threat away from home and despite our defensive frailties, Djourou and koscienly have looked a decent partnership - 3 clean sheets on the bounce now :loon. I'll take us to beat the handicap today. Arsenal (-1) @ 8/13 bluesq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Thats 10 points by the way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Laurent Koscielny has only scored once this season but he has made a nuisance of himself from corners and set pieces this season. Off the top of my head, he has very close misses against Chelsea and Spurs, which 9 times out of 10 would have gone in. That would have put him on a record of 3 goals in 17 games in the league. The value seems to have disappeared on Alex Song nowadays so i'm going to include Koscielny in my goalscorer bets from now on. Koscielny to score 2pts @ 14.5 betfair Koscielny to score first 1 pt @ 38.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Called that Koscielny bet a few days too early! Grrrrrrrr! Hopefully there's still some mileage in it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! I thought you were on yeterday, Aram - at least you said you were going to include him from the weekend on. A pity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! at least you said you were going to include him from the weekend on. I did didnt I! :loon I could include him on that basis but the problem is I dont have a price for him on Wednesdays goal - i was busy at work and couldnt get online in time to post here :( Bad timing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! With a busy last month behind us and Everton at home on tuesdfay there is little doubt that we will see players rested today. That means Squillachi coming in for Djourou at the back, Denilson for Song in midfield and both full backs rotated. Almunia looks like he will start in goal too. Whilst we have looked more solid defensively lately, it has largely been due to Djourou and Koscielny forming a solid understanding, with Wenger rather being forced too hand them a run of games. The below stats were correct as at 2 January. I don’t have updated stats to hand but its clear that the Djourou/koscielny stats would only have improved since then. Todays likely pairing of Squillachi/Koscielny don’t have a great record together. Djourou/Koscielny Pl 5, W 5, D 0, L 0 F 16 A 2 Djourou/Squillaci Pl 8, W 6, D 0, L 2, F 18, A 8 Vermaelen/Koscielny Pl 2, W 1, D 1, F 3, A 2 Vermaelen/Song Pl 1, W 1, D 0, L 0, F 6, A 0 Koscielny/Squillaci Pl 13, W 6, D 2, L 5, F 27, A 18 I’m aware we are at home to a division 1 side but they have an attacking approach and will probably have a go. It wouldn’t surprise me if they scored. Both teams to score 10pts @ 2.22 betfair (£336 available) Abou Diaby is fit again apparently and he is one who often offers a bit of value in the goalscorers markets. 7 goals in 40 last season, he hasn’t really got going this season due to injuries and has 1 in 9. I doubt he’ll play 90 minutes so I wont bet him for anytime goalscorer but maybe worth a go to score first. Abou Diaby first goalscorer. 1pt @ 11/1 coral Ive outlined the reasons why Laurent Koscielny is worth backing in the goalscorer markets and was mightily annoyed when he popped up in midweek when I hadn’t had a chance to post. He is worth continuing with. Laurent Koscielny to score first 1 pt @ 33/1 coral Laurent Koscielny to score anytime 2pts @ 13.0 betfair (£100 available) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Both teams to score 10pts @ 2.22 betfair (£336 available) This won, the goalscorer bets didnt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! A tough game in prospect tonight. After their usual slow start to the season, Everton seem to be finding some form, having lost only once in their last 10 away games – in fact they have only lost 3 times away from home this season. Odds of 1.5 for the Arsenal win look skinny, even taking into account their good league form of late. Arsenal may win but it wont be easy and I think Everton are well worth taking on the Asian Handicap with a goal head start. Everton (+1.0) AH – 10pts @ 2.15 betfair (£329 available to back) A lot of Everton’s woes early on in the season were due to a lack of punch up front. That hasn’t been so much of a problem of late – they have scored twice in each of their last 3 games - vs Spurs, Liverpool and West Ham. Arsenal will point to a new found defensive solidarity with 4 clean sheets on the trot to boast about but a look at the opposition there tells a story: - Birmingham, Man City, West Ham and Wigan. Three struggling teams and a Man City side who came for a point and didn’t even have a shot on target. This season, Everton have scored twice away at Man City, once away at Chelsea and three times at home to Man Utd and I expect them to score tonight. Lay – Arsenal Clean Sheet – 12.5 points @ 1.8 betfair (£274 available to lay) Onto goalscorers, and I’m going to stick with Koscielny for reasons outlined previously. (He had a goalbound shot blocked vs Huddersfield on Sunday). I’m also aware of the stat that tells us half the goals Arsenal have conceded this season have been from set pieces. So who is the threat for Everton? Saha and Beckford are obvious choices but they have been rotated this season and I don’t know who will start. They aren’t big prices anyway. Cahill isn’t available, so I’m going to have a play on Fellaini and Distin at big prices. Both tall, physical and will threaten from set pieces. Arshavin will start tonight in the absence of Nasri and he looks like he is coming into form a little bit. He will get going very soon and I will have a bet it will be tonight. Koscielny first goalscorer – 1pt @ 40.0 betfair (£4 available to back) Koscielny anytime goalscorer –2pts @ 14.5 betfair (£48 available to back) Fellaini first goalscorer – 1pt @ 28.0 betfair (£92 available to back) Fellaini anytime goalscorer – 2pt @ 12.0 betfair (£98 available to back) Distin first goalscorer – 0.5pt @ 85.0 betfair (£24 available to back) Distin anytime goalscorer – 0.5pt @ 36.0 betfair (£25 available to back) Arshavin to score anytime – 5 pts @ 3.95 betfair (860 available to back) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Great work with tonight's game, sticking with the Kocielny goalscorer bets proves to be a wise move. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! thanks Denman, he is certainly a threat from set pieces. Got a France call up as well this week :ok I thought id get some figures up. Staked: 99 pts Returns: 168.12 pts Profit: +69.12 pts Yield: 69.8% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! We seem to be a popular bet for the accumulators this weekend but I would exercise some caution, especially at odds of 1.69. I’m never a fan of backing teams at odds on away from home and whilst we are worthy favourites, 1.69 is on the short side. We are missing some important players tomorrow, in fact we go into the game without a recognised defensive midfielder – Song and Denilson are both missing which means Diaby, Wilshere and Fabregas will form the central midfield trio. Great going forward but a worry physically if Newcastle line up with Barton, Tiote and Nolan in midfield. On current form, we should be ok but it’s the kind of game we have been prone to slip up in. Lay – Arsenal 14.50 pt @ 1.69 (10 pts liability) Koscielny to score 2 pts @ 15.5 (£250 available to back) I will be back in the morning with Koscielny to score first and possibly another Diaby bet, but there isnt enough liquidity on betfair at the moment. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Koscielny to score first goal 1 pt @ 36.0 (£42 to back) Diaby to score 2 pts @8.6 (£500 to back) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Lay – Arsenal 14.50 pt @ 1.69 (10 pts liability) 3-0 up after 10 mins. I might have misjudged this one :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! 3-0 up after 10 mins. I might have misjudged this one :lol Shut up you nob Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Staked: 114 pts Returns: 192.62 pts Profit: +78.62 pts Yield: 69% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! 3-0 up after 10 mins. I might have misjudged this one :lol No!! :rollin:rollin But £2 on at 1.01 at H/T would of been nice :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! Kev, my brother made £700 laying us at 4-2! Wish id been quicker, i made a nice sum laying us vs Spurs earlier in the season but was too slow for this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highbury FC Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! AK i gather that we are both gooners, but i never break the basic law of laying arsenal.. :ok I tend to multi them with a heavyweight (PSV/Barca) when they have good odds against a team out of form, e.g. Birmingham a few weeks ago. We have a nice run ahead of us in the league so if we dont drop too many points we can close the gap completely on ManU as they still have to face Liverpool, ManC, and Chelsea x2. :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! I was going to back both sides to score as i thought Djourou might be rested, but it looks like we are full strength bar Nasri, so i'll leave it. just the usual goalscorer bets for today. Laurent Koscielny to score 2pts @ 12.5 betfair Laurent Koscielny to score first goal 1pts @ 29.0 betfair Given our poor defending from set pieces, i'll have small bets on their CBs to score - Elokobi is the only Wolves defender quoted on betfair and scored vs Man Utd last week so i'll have a small bet on him. George Elokobi to score 0.5pts @ 36.0 betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Re: Stick to what you know! AK i gather that we are both gooners, but i never break the basic law of laying arsenal.. :ok I tend to multi them with a heavyweight (PSV/Barca) when they have good odds against a team out of form, e.g. Birmingham a few weeks ago. We have a nice run ahead of us in the league so if we dont drop too many points we can close the gap completely on ManU as they still have to face Liverpool, ManC, and Chelsea x2. :cheers Thought they might drop points today but no such luck. Must win today mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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