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Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Franklin Templeton Shootout

RussP

By RussP
in Golf Betting Tips

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hornet_18

hornet_18

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Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Arnold Palmer Invitational

Just to note; after the first week, working to level stakes, 1 unit e/w or 2 units outright (if specified), the profiling is currently +1.25 units from 8 units bet. ROI 15.63%. Aaron Baddeley @ 51 ew BetFred - 3 / 4 1) 14th in DD last year. 2) 46th in par 5 birdie % last year, 27th this year. 3) Top 14 in 2008 but no top 10 here. 4) Winner already this year. Phil Mickelson @ 19 ew PP - 3 / 4 1) 13th in DD last year. 2) 2nd in par 5 birdie % last year; 4th this year. 3) Best finish here of 23rd in 2008. 4) 2nd in Farmer Insurance Open early in the season. GL :ok
While not Garrigus and Day (who I had high hopes for); there are two guys well in the running...Mickelson in the lead and Baddeley one behind. Here's hoping! :hope
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PerryPFC

PerryPFC

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Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Arnold Palmer Invitational

While not Garrigus and Day (who I had high hopes for); there are two guys well in the running...Mickelson in the lead and Baddeley one behind. Here's hoping! :hope
:wall having followed and backed Garrigus, Day and Woodland... It was inevitable Mickelson and Baddeley would be the ones producing :rollin *update* The Arabian fella I sold the wife and kid to, wants his money back... Only problem is I don't have the house anymore to put them in!! Over to you hornet!!
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hornet_18

hornet_18

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Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Shell Houston Open Not bad with Mickelson winning @ 18s and Baddeley falling away but still finishing 4th to hit the e/w payout! Sadly it seems that the other four guys have let everyone - and themselves - down! Currently the "winners profiles" started two weeks ago stands at: Total Units Bet - 20 Units won - 27.25 ROI - 136.26% Not bad to start with!! Now to see whether Yani Tseng can get a win in the LPGA to make it an excellent weekend for the profiles...:hope

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hornet_18

hornet_18

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Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Shell Houston Open Thanks guys, hopefully the first of many from this method! CP - sadly at the moment it's all legwork!! Might be easier with a database of some sort but I wouldn't even know where to start with that if creating it and it would probably take a fair amount of upkeep... Bring on the best tournament of the year!! :ok

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hornet_18

hornet_18

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Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Texas Open A new course was used last year which was designed by Greg Norman with consultancy from Sergio Garcia. Greg Norman apparently tried to make this as much like home (Australia) as possible. Unsurprisingly, last year 2 aussies finished in the top 5. The other thing that seems important is ability to play in Texas Adam Scott @ 13 outright Bet365 It's normally seen to be detrimental to the next week when you challenge at a major, however, while I cant see Rory challenging this week, Adam Scott came out the Masters with really positive memories. He couldnt have done anything more and his ball striking was great as usual, however, it was his new putter that is really helping out. While it looks odd with a young guy, since he started using it he has finished 6th at Doral, and 2nd at the Masters. If he keeps his putting up, he will be a serious threat at every major as his ball striking has always been as good as anyone (3rd on tour this year). Won this tournament last year and said it reminded him of home so he can clearly play the course. With his confidence high, I'm surprised to be getting double figures and I'll gladly take them. Ryan Palmer @ 36 ew Bet365 Quietly finished in the top 10 at the Masters with 4 steady rounds hitting the ball very well. Is now back at home in Texas and seems very comfortable with his game lying top 40 in both total driving and ball striking. He is a great putter and will know how to putt on these greens. Finished really well here last year with a fast finishing final round of 64 to finish 9th. Won in two of the last 3 years and would not be surprised to see him add to that tally this week. Jimmy Walker @ 41 ew Bet365 Lives and coached in San Antonio and knows this course better than anyone. Finished top 5 here last year so we know he can play the course. Three top 10s this year and while he has tailed off recently, he opened in Houston with a course record equallying 63 to show he is still playing some solid golf. Also taken a little on Bobby Gates to trade with @ big odds (270s on Betfair) who studied in Texas and has a very good record in Australasia with a win and a 3rd in his two tournaments in NZ and Oz on the nationwide tour, and a 12th and 6th in the two tournaments he played in Oz in December. Already has two top 6s in the weaker events so in conditions he should be with, on a course that should suit, I feel he can do well here. GL :ok

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Crouch Potato

Crouch Potato

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Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Texas Open I considered all 3 of those players before seeing their odds and have ignored based on the shortness of them, so that bodes well for you :lol Not a great deal of course history here, which is really the only thing I ever use, and given the effectiveness of your criteria, I'm looking at trying to expand my criteria and knowledge of the game starting this week... so it's probably going to get messy for a while. Kyle Stanley @ 130 Betfair This is name I've been seeing at the top of the leaderboard a fair bit, albeit not at the end of 72 holes. He held the lead of the Honda Classic after 2 rounds and shot a 3rd round 66 at the Arnold Palmer to be in the top 10 heading into Sunday. At 7522 yards this is a fairly long course, which will help Stanley who ranks 12th in DD this year. He also ranks 24th in GIR and 15th in the All-Round. Hasn't played here previously but being a new course I don't see this as being a handicap. For me a player in good scoring form who just needs to put it all together over 4 rounds instead of 2-3. James Driscoll @ 240 Betfair Tied for 9th on this course last year and in the Texas Valero the year prior he was 2nd, albeit on a different San Antonio course. He's only made 2 cuts from 6 starts this year for a best finish of T13. What really springs to mind for me though is his opening round 63 (-9) at the Puerto Rico Open earlier this year. He faded after that, but it's evidence that he can shoot really low, and with the Texas Valero being widely regarded as a tournament that is won with very low scores, I'm happy to take Driscoll at these odds given his previous good San Antonio form and ability to shoot low. Jhonattan Vegas @ 110 Betfair Like I said, my golfing knowledge really isn't at the level I'd like it to be, and it perhaps shows in this pick, but I can't really work this one out. He may have missed the last 3 cuts but he's still a player who has won this year, with a further 3rd place and 2 more Top 25s. Though Venezuelan by birth, he played college golf in Texas and considers this to be his adopted state. Didn't play well in Houston but would expect him to have some sort of local knowledge. Ranks greater than 290 yards in DD and is 11th in Par 4 birdie averages -- statistics I feel might be relevant this weekend as this course and in particular the Par 5's play quite long. Have a couple more picks to come tomorrow as I'm not yet matched on them :ok

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kevshat

kevshat

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Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Texas Open

First post' date='Texas Open. Charley Hoffman 40/1 general. Last 2 events tied 27th and 24th. Last year tied 13th. So good current form and good course form. Hope this posting meets all the rules[/quote'] :welcome to PL mate. Good luck with Charley :ok.
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Striker

Striker

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Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Texas Open Good Luck All Like last week not a strong opinion but having small interests on N O`Hern @ 100-1 [bet365]..did take the early 125-1 as didnt think them odds would last if other pundits think this guy will build on season best finish at Houston B Jobe @ 125-1 [Ladbrokes]...Tends to play brilliant or miss the cut..so if making a strong start is the ideal trading player

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Crouch Potato

Crouch Potato

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Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Texas Open Following as always Striker :ok Two more for me: Garth Mulroy @ 230 Betfair Jumped in early on this one which looks like a mistake given he is now 300+. Still, Driscoll has shortened by a similar level so you take the good with the bad. Anyhoo... Mulroy finished Top 10 at TPC San Antonio last year after going into the final day as leader. Hasn't played much this year but did come 2nd in the first European Tournament of the year -- coincidentally his home tournament. Perhaps playing on familiar courses really suits him -- if it does, he might be in with a shout this weekend. Justin Leonard @ 80 Betfair Leonard has won this tournament on 3 occasions, though none were played on this course. However, all were in San Antonio and so it clearly shows he can play in Texas. Missed the cut here last year but did card a 69 in his second round. I'll be looking for him to apply that newfound course affinity here at attractive odds.

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Crouch Potato

Crouch Potato

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Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Texas Open Will be very interested to see what your research comes up with this week Hornet, particularly given the same course has been used for so long :ok All bets with Betfair -- tried to be clever and take the early odds thinking they'd drop. I either got in too late (Baddeley) or just took things that drifted :@. In any event, that's why a lot of these odds are lower than currently available: Boo Weekley @ 85 Has won this tournament on two previous occasions and has never finished lower than 13th! His results haven't been too impressive but he is ranking 1st in total driving and 5th in GIR -- he also ranks 174th in putting which is probably why his results have been so mediocre. Returning to a course he enjoys and knows so well could give a big boost to his short game, and given the areas he is already doing well in, this could really ignite him to victory this weekend. Jim Furyk @ 24 Like Weekley Furyk has a great record at Harbour Town. Since 2005 he has won once, came outright second once, plus a tied second and an outright fourth. Hasn't done too much this year but has still made 7/9 cuts with 2x Top 10's, so this course could be the catalyst for him putting it all together. Aaron Baddeley @ 24 Baddeley won here in 2005 and has since achieved a tied second and finished no worse than T22. He's been playing some stellar golf this year and already has a victory under his belt. Comes in after a bit of a break which could really work either way, but I'm hoping it'll be a positive and prevent him from burning out -- something that has appeared to have happened to some other players who were in form, notably Vegas. Stewart Cink @ 58 It's probably no secret by now that I [over-rate?] course form and so it's no real surprise that I'm taking Cink here. He's won here twice, had a few more top 10s and and seemed to be hitting some form in the Texas Valero before the weather derailed his game. Hopefully some more favourable weather and a return to familiar and happy ground can see him challenge. Spencer Levin @ 75 His course form here is quite solid, with a T14 and T13 in his only 2 starts, but it's not something that would normally convince me to take them. However, I'm making an exception here due to his really strong leaderboard presence. T4 in the AT&T, lost a playoff to Wagner in the Mayakoba and frankly should have won the Arnold Palmer after trading as low as $3. Missed the last 2 cuts so possibly feeling the mental hangover of such an epic choke, but his form should still be there and I think his record at this course is a fair bit better than it was in the previous two events, so hopefully here is where he finally gets the win Nick O'Hern @ 150 A bit like Levin in that he has a couple of solid results (minor Top 10's in this case) but nothing that demands his inclusion. However, I feel he's had a bit of a leaderboard presence of late and though he doesn't have the results to really back this up, I can't help but feel that he's coming into some form after missing 5 of the first 7 cuts this season. Davis Love III @ 150 Stellar, stellar course form. Has won 5 times and has a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 7th to boot. Hasn't really challenged here since 2005 (where he did come 2nd), but Couples has shown that older players can make a leaderboard presence on courses where they have great experience and fodness, and Harbour Town certainly is that for Love.

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hornet_18

hornet_18

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Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - The Heritage "Hornet Criteria", current results (assuming 1pt ew or 2pt outright): Total Units Bet - 38 Units Profit - 13.25 ROI - 34.87% Interestingly, despite the fact that this seems like a horses for courses layout (i.e. lots of multiple winners), 1 of the last 6 winners was making his debut, and 2 of the last 6 had played once previously when missing the cut...so while suiting the course seems to be vital...course form may not be the be all and end all. Just the three criteria this week for me... 1) Players from windy southern states (Carolinas, Texas, Georgia and Florida), and the windy desert state of Arizona have done well in the past with 46 of 51 placed in the last 9 years with links to these states. 2) 8 out of last 9 winners had at least one top 10 in the season; and 6 of the last 9 winners had at least two top 10s in the season. 3) Last 7 winners have all been ranked in the top 50 in proximity to hole, with 6 of the 7 winners actually in the top 25. Hardly surprising with some of the smallest greens on tour. This leaves us with 7 players in the field meeting these criteria - I few of the market leaders (unsurprisingly) and a few lower down the field. Luke Donald @ 11 outright PaddyPower 1) Lives in Florida 2) 4 top 10s in last 4 tournaments 3) Top 25 in proximity to hole both this year and last year. Jim Furyk @ 19 ew BetFred 1) Lives in Florida 2) Top 10 in the season opener in Hawaii and a few weeks ago at the Arnold Palmer. 3) 37th this year in proximity to hole, and 32nd last year. Matt Kuchar @ 17 ew PaddyPower 1) Florida boy who went to University in Georgia. 2) 6 top 10s in his 9 tournaments this year. 3) 34th this year in proximity to hole. Brian Gay @ 36 ew Bet365 1) Texas native who went to University in Florida. 2) Top 5 at the Bob Hope and the Mayakoba Classic. 3) 4th in proximity to hole this year, and 13th last year. Jonathan Byrd @ 67 ew Bet365 1) South Carolina born and bred - as far as I remember this is actually his local course. 2) Won the season opener, and finished top 10 in the WGC event at Doral. 3) 45th in proximity to hole this year. Mark Wilson @ 81 ew ToteSport 1) Studied at the University of North Carolina. 2) Two wins this season, and another top 10 in the Arnold Palmer. 3) Top 15 in proximity to hole this year. Chris Kirk @ 126 ew PaddyPower 1) Studied at the University of Georgia. 2) Top 10 at the Bob Hope Classic, and finished an impressive 2nd a few weeks ago in Houston. 3) Top in proximity to hole statistics this year. GL :ok

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Dougal

Dougal

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Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - The Heritage Harbour Town, like most Pete Dye courses suits pure ball strikers better than bombers, there are a lot of trees and a fair bit of water so you need to put the ball in the right place off the tee. Heath Slocum, ew 125/1 @ Totesport Slocum ranks in the top 10 in driving accuracy and greens in regulation, yet he has only one top 25 this year, why? Because he seemingly putts like my mum and is ranked almost last in putting. He’s a quality ball striker though and when he gets a good week with the flat stick he cashes in, he’s won in each of the last two years and had 5 top ten finishes last season. One of those was at the Heritage when he finished T8 and he also finished 12th here in 2006 so he has some decent results here. Being a poor putter isn't necessarily a hindrance to winning here as Boo Weekley has proved by winning twice! Brian Gay, ew - 35/1 @ Bet365 Winner here in 2009 when he stormed away from the rest of the field and won by a mile. I imagine this season has been frustrating for Gay, with 8 cuts made out of 9 tournaments he has been a model of consistency and although he has two top five finishes he’s not real got in a position to win. Gay leads the tour in driving accuracy, sand saves and scrambling and ranks 29th in putting, he looks like a player on the verge of a win on a course the suits his game down to the ground.

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Striker

Striker

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Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - The Heritage Good Luck Guys Like last couple of weeks keeping stakes low Camilo Villegas @ 100-1 [stan James]..Signs here and there recently that his A Game is nearly there again and has terrific course form Pat Perez @ 100-1 [Coral]..Eyecatcher last week with best finish of the season

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Striker

Striker

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Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - The Heritage I did mate at 7-1 Yeah that DB at the 4th last night just as he got the lead because its been a while since in this sort of position mentally got him i think Hope Pat can get the place money at worse tonight and will be looking to green up if making a good start..the 12th hole has cost him 4 shots this week other wise he would be right in the mix

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hornet_18

hornet_18

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Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - The Heritage So Jim Furyk - who hasnt looked comfortable all day - has had his round ruined by a ball oscillation (moved forward and moved back)...no penalty but a mindf*ck nonetheless and a double bogey. Leaves me relying on Luke Donald...which is a place I never ever want to be in during a stroke play tournament! :hope

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