Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Franklin Templeton Shootout

[Striker]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Crowne Plaza Invitational :clap

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Crowne Plaza Invitational Great work Hornet :clap

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Byron Nelson Classic This week at the HP Byron Nelson, while there is plenty of course form, the course was completely redesigned for 2008 and I'm not convinced there's enough to read into yet...so back to my judgement it is! One bet at the moment... DA Points @ 81 ew BetFred I had DA lined up for this one since January as he tipped this as his best chance of a win on twitter! While he has already won this year, all this proves to me is that he is a good player who has now proven he can finish off the job. His form here is excellent, he has played here twice - the last two years - finished 3rd and 7th; I can see why he feels he has a good chance here! His recent form has been disappointing with 2 missed cuts in a row; however, he played well at a British Open qualifier shooting 3 under and losing in a playoff - disappointing for him but at least it shows he's striking the ball nicely. Feel these odds are tasty considering his incredible course form. GL :hope

[Paddy Mc]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Byron Nelson Classic Well done last week Hornet!!:clap Unfortunately i never got any golf bets on but was pretty taken by the firm trends you threw up, defintely worth remembering for next year. You don't bother with the Hornet Criteria for the YoYo Tour?

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Byron Nelson Classic Thanks Paddy. All the other tours tend to chop and change the courses they plan on every year so it's difficult to judge whether things are trends or fluke occurences. The other thing is that the stats and info for PGA Tour are more readily / easily available so it takes a bit off my workload! :ok

[Striker]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Byron Nelson Classic Good Luck D J Trahan @ 100-1 [stan James] Not great course form but caught my eye with his play last week

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Byron Nelson Classic Marc Leishman @ 51 Centrebet Leishman has some strong course form, having a T12 and T8 in his only two trips here. Has had a couple of solid Top 10's this year and showed some scoring form in the first two rounds last week. Poor weekend saw him fade but it could be the catalyst for a strong four rounds this weekend. GL all

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - The Memorial OK, so back to a course which is well known on tour having been played for a number of decades...this leaves me a great amount of information to have a look through and I think that I've found a few trends to go by, and it seems that they signify a continuing of the top class winners of the past. After the success of Colonial with David Toms, the record looks pretty good for the hornet criteria - hopefully it will continue this week :hope Hornet Criteria to level stakes: Amount Bet: 74 pts P/L: 31.50pts ROI: 42.57% This weeks criteria: 1) Course Form - 10 of the last 13 winners had a previous top 5 on course 2) Current Form - the last 13 winners had at least one top 10 and 5 top 25s already in the season 3) Stats - the last 13 winners were top 50 in All Around Rankings in their year of victory or previous year 4) Making Scores - 12 of the last 13 winners were top 20 in Scoring Average in their year of victory or previous year Jim Furyk @ 41 ew BoyleSports 1) Winner in 2002 2) 2 top 10s and 6 25s this year 3) 39th in AAR this year 4) 5th in scoring average last year Justin Rose @ 36 ew ToteSport 1) Course winner last year 2) 3 top 10s and 8 top 25s this year 3) 8th in AAR this year 4) 8th in Scoring Average last year KJ Choi @ 29 ew ToteSport 1) Course winner in 2007 2) 5 top 10s and 6 top 25s this year 3) Top 30 in AAR both this year and last year 4) Top 20 in scoring average both this year and last year Phil Mickelson @ 15 ew Ladbrokes 1) Top 5 last year and in 2006 2) 4 top 10s and 6 top 25s 3) Top 20 in AAR both this year and last year 4) Top 10 in scoring average both this year and last year Matt Kuchar @ 21 ew PP 1) Top 5 in 2009 2) 7 top 10s and 10 top 25s this year 3) Top 5 in AAR both this year and last year 4) Top 2 in scoring average both this year and last year GL :ok

[ELCAKER]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - The Memorial One bet for me so far at The Memorial and it comes in the Top European market. Luke DOnald heads the field at prices varying from 11/10 to 6/4. Whilst Donald is playing some gr8 golf I am ready to take him on. His victory at Wentworth wwas much closer than it perhaps should have been after his opening 64 and his driving was very erratic in rnds 3 and 4. No value and it would not surprise me if he struggled. Next up is Rory Mc who is plying well but continues to struggle with the putter, at 9/2 he is nearly backable but not quite! The man I am with as an e/w bet to nothing imo is Justin Rose. The defending champion is 6's and has just had a very realxing week catching up with old friends before the PGA at Wentworth. He missed the cut but actually played very well, fighting back from an opening 75 to be comforably inside the cut line before taking a quadruple bogey 9 at 17. Even then he birdied 18 a testament to his mental attitude. I am not going to suggest that if he had hung around for the weekend he would have contended but as someone who plays tough courses and conditions well I think he would have been close to a top 20. 6's is a decent price at 1/5 for top 3.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - The Memorial GL this week lads. Hornet, are you keeping track of both the Win and Place components of your bets? Would be interesting to see how the profit changes when you are backing just the win. Two for me this week: Webb Simpson @ 80 Betfair Has been playing great golf all year and I think he will get his first win before the season is out. Comes in off a two week break so should be mentally refreshed after a couple of poorish tournaments. Kenny Perry @ 340 Betfair Perry has won this tournament 3 times. He has a further 3 Top 10's and has only missed 1 cut at this tournament in 20 appearances. Given this record and odds in the mid 300's, I simply can't refuse this offer.

[jackierubberleg]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - The Memorial Top 20 Finish-K J Choi 5/4 P Power K J's game is in a pretty healthy state at the moment and I would imagine he would be in a position to challange for this title, therefore I suggest that this is a decent bet. One thing I like about Mr Choi is his abillity to take his punishment and move on after a bad hole. Any seasoned golf punter would appreciate this, having seen their money burn before their eyes on many occassions by the numererous golfers who do not have the temprement to do just that, some players will go from bogey to double, or in some occassions meltdown when they have failed to clear their heads. Mr Choi's ultra calm demeanour and current form should see us home. GL

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - The Memorial

Hornet, are you keeping track of both the Win and Place components of your bets? Would be interesting to see how the profit changes when you are backing just the win.

The way that I've been playing it is how I would normally with golf - odds of 10/1 or lower have been win only and the rest are each way (hence when @ 10s Luke Donald lost a playoff at the Verizon it was extra frustrating!!). Stats for 2 units outright (for ease of comparison) instead of the e/w I've been playing stand at: No. of Bets - 37 No. of Winners - 2 No. of Units Bet - 74 Units P/L - 36 ROI - 48.65% Compares to: No. of Bets - 74 No. of (outright) winners - 2 No. of (e/w) winners (including the outright winners if e/w bets) - 6 No. of Units Bet - 74 Units P/L - 31.5 ROI - 42.57% Seems there is a small difference at the moment in ROI but nothing major - depends how you want to play it though. The outright only betting definitely has more ups and downs (peak profit of 36; peak loss of -24) compared to the e/w betting which is more gradual on your betting account (peak profit of 31.5; peak loss of 10.75). Obviously after only 37 bets and 8 tournaments it's too early to grasp anything from this, probably better to wait until the end of the FedEx Cup or the end of the Year to see whether there's anything in there before setting up a generic marketing page and selling it as the betting system to end your money woes :rollin Either way, it's picking out some decent bets and close calls at the moment so fingers crossed it can keep it up :ok

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - The Memorial

Obviously after only 37 bets and 8 tournaments it's too early to grasp anything from this, probably better to wait until the end of the FedEx Cup or the end of the Year to see whether there's anything in there before setting up a generic marketing page and selling it as the betting system to end your money woes :rollin

Lack of long term credibility has never stopped systems being sold before :tongue2 Thanks for the response too. I was just a bit curious if either were more profitable -- didn't mean to make you write out an essay for me. :lol

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - The Memorial

Lack of long term credibility has never stopped systems being sold before :tongue2 Thanks for the response too. I was just a bit curious if either were more profitable -- didn't mean to make you write out an essay for me. :lol

Not a problem, I guess if no-ones checking up on me I might give up after a bad week...so keep up the curiousity!

[ledge81]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - The Memorial never give this up hornet. the criteria is fascinating!!!! very interesting to read. good luck with your predictions this week, will be watching with interest :hope

[Striker]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - The Memorial Good Luck Lads Carl Pettersson @ 100-1 [bet365]..Having a consistent season and knows his way around Muirfield

[jackierubberleg]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - The Memorial

Top 20 Finish-K J Choi 5/4 P Power K J's game is in a pretty healthy state at the moment and I would imagine he would be in a position to challange for this title, therefore I suggest that this is a decent bet. One thing I like about Mr Choi is his abillity to take his punishment and move on after a bad hole. Any seasoned golf punter would appreciate this, having seen their money burn before their eyes on many occassions by the numererous golfers who do not have the temprement to do just that, some players will go from bogey to double, or in some occassions meltdown when they have failed to clear their heads. Mr Choi's ultra calm demeanour and current form should see us home. GL

Agonisingly close, one shot short, sickner

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - St Jude Classic Close but no cigar with Kuchar finishing 1 shot shy of Stricker. Hornet Criteria Stats for 2 units outright: No. of Bets - 42 No. of Winners - 2 No. of Units Bet - 84 Units P/L - 26 ROI - 30.95% Hornet Criteria Stats for 1 unit e/w betting: No. of Bets - 84 No. of (outright) winners - 2 No. of (e/w) winners (including the outright winners if e/w bets) - 7 No. of Units Bet - 84 Units P/L - 27.5 ROI - 32.74% Roll on St Jude :ok

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - St Jude Classic I've been looking through the past 6 years of the St Jude (since they turned it into a par 70) and the 15 years before that (since they moved to this course) and there's nothing I'm happy with that will cut down the field with hard and fast trends...so the Hornet Criteria will be back at the US Open! But I do have a couple of bets for this week: Brandt Snedeker @ 34 ew VCBet Snedekers form this year has been very good, he has 5 top 10s including a win beating current OWGR No.1 in a playoff at the Heritage at another par 70 course. Since then he missed the two cuts after the win which is unsurprising; however, at the Colonial a couple of weeks ago he finished a very creditable top 20 and I feel this is the perfect time to get back on side with Brandt. He is a fantastic putter (2nd), very accurate driver (32nd) and great scrambler (23rd) so his game is a great fit for the course. This is backed up with a top 30 last year (when in worse form) and a top 5 in 2007 during his rookie year. A confident bet for me. John Rollins @ 81 ew VCBet If you look at John Rollins stats, you cant help but be impressed. Top 50 for Driving Distance and Accuracy leaving him 1st in Total Driving. Top 25 in GIR leaving him 7th in Ball Striking. The only thing letting him down has been his putting; however, last time out we saw Rollins with his first top 10 of the season at the Byron Nelson where he was top 5 in putting - and when his putting works he can go close and finish the job (as shown by his 3 wins on tour). Add in his top 15 here last year the first time he'd played the course as a par 70 and it looks like Rollins can go close. Heath Slocum @ 101 ew BetFred Heath Slocum is a proven winner - 4 wins on tour including in both of the past two seasons show that. He also has the perfect game for par 70s; incredibly accurate off the tee (6th in driving accuracy) and fantastic at hitting small greens (6th in GIR and 3rd in proximity to hole). His record here does not prove this theory wrong with top 25s here in the last 4 years which includes 3 top 12s; a pretty awesome record on this course which has proved to be a horses for courses play. Add in his challenging at other par 70s such as the Verizon Heritage and the Mayakoba, and a win on the par 70 McGladrey Classic at the end of last season and this looks like a decent play. His flat stick hasnt been behaving this season which has led to disappointing results; however, his putting stats have improved here every year for the last four years (29.25-28.5-27.5-27) to show that he feels comfortable on the surfaces here. Hopefully he'll be able to reconjure his love affair with the course at a tasty three figure price. Gl :hope

[LAMPS]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - St Jude Classic Hornet or anyone else that wants to contribute, I see the EW bets and the win only bets are quite similar in ROI with the EW bets a bit higher but do you have a preference between the two? I generally like back the win if its 20/1 or less and over that back EW but ive found personally that despite placing a few times and in theory limiting some of the damage that the EW bet is intended to do that many of my places get killed because of dead heat splits. So often I have a place finish (rarely the winner) and all of a sudden a 40/1 ew bet at 1/3 so a touch over 13/1 for a place gets split 2/3 ways and it kills the return completely. Does anyone here think its just not worth it with EW or do you just accept the dead heat splits are going to happen and there's not much you can do about? The other argument of win only is if your guy is ahead you can always lay on the exchanges almost like a "place" As ive said above im generally an EW man but looking at the results and how frustrated I get with the dead heat splits I'm curious to hear the other golf punters views on how they back players. p.s gl with your punts this week gents :hope

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - St Jude Classic

Hornet or anyone else that wants to contribute, I see the EW bets and the win only bets are quite similar in ROI with the EW bets a bit higher but do you have a preference between the two? I generally like back the win if its 20/1 or less and over that back EW but ive found personally that despite placing a few times and in theory limiting some of the damage that the EW bet is intended to do that many of my places get killed because of dead heat splits. So often I have a place finish (rarely the winner) and all of a sudden a 40/1 ew bet at 1/3 so a touch over 13/1 for a place gets split 2/3 ways and it kills the return completely. Does anyone here think its just not worth it with EW or do you just accept the dead heat splits are going to happen and there's not much you can do about? The other argument of win only is if your guy is ahead you can always lay on the exchanges almost like a "place" As ive said above im generally an EW man but looking at the results and how frustrated I get with the dead heat splits I'm curious to hear the other golf punters views on how they back players. p.s gl with your punts this week gents :hope

I prefer win only, though I must confess I don't actually follow Hornets tips for the most part (I'm one of those really stubborn people who insists on trying to come up with there own winners.) Luckily for me, 2 of Hornet's picks this week are mine too, so maybe that's a good sign (more on this later). To answer your question some more, the reason I prefer to think of win only as being better bets is that E/W requires using a bookie. Not only are bookie win odds generally less, but being a bookie, they will almost certainly restrict if you win too often - and let's face it, Hornet's criteria seems to be heading that way! If he keeps finding these winners, then Betfair is going to be the only way left for him to get on... and at likely better than quoted odds too. If splits really annoy you, you could consider using betfair to back for the win portion and substituting the e/w place bet for a Top 10 bet instead. That will stop most top 5 splits and will help pay out in those times when the pick comes 6th or 7th etc. That said, you'll still get splits doing this too. Personally I'm all about the win (or losing trying to get the win, as it currently is :lol)

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - St Jude Classic A couple of bets on players at shorter odds with a slew of outsiders for me this week. This season seems to alternate between surprise winner and a more experienced player winning. In a weakish field before a major, I'm feeling a surprise winner. David Toms @ 13 Betfair There really is a lot to like about Toms. In fact, the only disappointing thing is that he's won recently, reducing his odds to a mere 12-1. Since 2002 he has won twice and finished Top 5 a whpping SIX times! Too bad he's not 40-1 like he was last time out, because that would have been hyper value. As it is, though, I'm still a backer. He's coming in off a nice 2 week spell and just loves this track. John Rollins @ 85 Betfair As Hornet alluded to, he is well up there in ball striking this year and now leads total driving. Finished T15 last year and his style should suit this course. Heath Slochum @ 100 Betfair Another players whose MO is accuracy. Has 2 consecutive Top 10 finishes at this course, backing up the notion that this is a venue that is suited to his style of play. Boo Weekley @ 230 Betfair I don't know why backing Boo is a weekley occurence for me, but it seemingly is. Usually it just ends up in me going boo hoo. But if he wins and I'm not on, then I'd really be booing. Bad puns aside, Boo is a big winner waiting to happen. Top 5 in Driving AND Gir, #1 in ball striking. If he can ever work out how to use the putter, then he's going to give the tournament a real shake, and in a weakened field he'd have even less top quality competition to see off. Here's hoping a Boo bet goes boom!, instead of boo hoo. Nick O'Hern @ 290 Betfair The Aussie was tracking well this time last month, carding 4 consecutive top 25 finishes, including a season best T6 at The Heritage (another tournament that places a premium on accuracy). Since then he's missed 3 cuts in a row, but he did make the cut last week. Perhaps this is a sign he's regained that earlier form and given his performance at the Heritage I'm happy to back him on this course at these odds. ********************************************************************** Have 4-5 more that I will post up when matched. Aside from Toms and what will be John Senden, though, all of these are just daft outsider bets with appropriately small stakes. The biggest golf bet I've made this week is actually Webb Simpson to win the US Open :lol On that note, I'll be interested to see how you profile the US Open, Hornet. What with it being played at a different course each year and all.

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - St Jude Classic

Hornet or anyone else that wants to contribute, I see the EW bets and the win only bets are quite similar in ROI with the EW bets a bit higher but do you have a preference between the two? I generally like back the win if its 20/1 or less and over that back EW but ive found personally that despite placing a few times and in theory limiting some of the damage that the EW bet is intended to do that many of my places get killed because of dead heat splits. So often I have a place finish (rarely the winner) and all of a sudden a 40/1 ew bet at 1/3 so a touch over 13/1 for a place gets split 2/3 ways and it kills the return completely. Does anyone here think its just not worth it with EW or do you just accept the dead heat splits are going to happen and there's not much you can do about? The other argument of win only is if your guy is ahead you can always lay on the exchanges almost like a "place" As ive said above im generally an EW man but looking at the results and how frustrated I get with the dead heat splits I'm curious to hear the other golf punters views on how they back players. p.s gl with your punts this week gents :hope

LAMPS, the way I've split it is that I generally like putting e/w on best with odds over 12/1 - dead heats are always going to happen but as CP said, if you want to eliminate that, then just go for top 10 or top 20 betting where the odds are worse but the chance is higher. I do - like CP - use betfair and do some trading out if my guy is doing well, however, this is generally only for triple figured bets that are more speculative (and not posted on here!) whereas those I post up here are generally ew bets which I let play out. With this, I just feel that putting a bet on at 20s and then trading out at 3s isnt really a profitable long term strategy; additionally, betfair seems to have better odds than traditional bookies at the higher end, whereas with the favourites the bookies seem to give better odds (especially after commission is taken into account). It's all done to personal preference and past experiences but personally, with a field of up to 150+ players, especially in a game which can flip so fast on one bad shot, I like to have the 5 place back up plan through ew bets. :ok

[Striker]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - St Jude Classic Good Luck Lads Im due a good week...so Stuart Appleby @ 150-1 [bet365]..Since march been pretty awful apart from one tournament,but can get hot quickly from nowhere

[LAMPS]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - St Jude Classic thanks for the replies guys, appreciate your info as always. I really like Zach Johnson this week at St Judes, the guys fresh after missing last weeks Memorial event and has decent course form here with a 5th and 12th place finish in in the past. The price is a little short now after he opened up mid 20's but at 15/1 cira I still fancy going against Westwood in this. A few others have a chance but I feel Zach is "due" after playing well recently and this course suites his game. Just a small bet on Johnson straight win 15.00 General quote :hope

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - St Jude Classic Final few picks: John Senden @ 42 Betfair Senden has been tracking very well this season. 7 Top 25 finishes and a further 2 Top 10 finishes, both in the last month. Ranks 3rd in ball striking so this tournament is set up for him to continue his strong form. Scott Stallings @ 270 Betfair Stallings put together two strong rounds last tournament, but wedged two rather poor rounds in between them. He's a player I've had my eye on for a while now and with a weakened field this week I'm happy to take a punt on him to continue this season's trend of new breed winners. Cameron Tringale @ 410 Betfair Tringale impressed in the Texas Valero, finishing 5th in very tough conditions. He's also had a bit of early leaderboard presence lately and this could be the weekend where he turns these glimpses into another strong challenge. Bob Estes @ 270 Betfair A winner back in 2001, Estes has a further 4 Top 10 finishes this century, including an 8th placed finish last year. A true horses for courses pick at big odds.

[stubhoy77]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - St Jude Classic Hi all went for paddy harrington(dont know why) been reading interviews hes been saying working a lot on his game and seems to be coming together he needs some form before the next couple of majors and hopefully starts here done him ew 1st round leader 55s and ew to win 50s both with betfred go on paddy bhoy you can do it.:hope

[Bobbyhead]

Unlucky Crouch,with Tringale. Those last few holes were very cruel for you. Par(par 5),Bogey,Double Bogey finish. He looked sure for 3rd place or a top 5 finish. I was on him too,albeit much shorter odds,in-running 

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - St Jude Classic

Unlucky Crouch' date='with Tringale. Those last few holes were very cruel for you. Par(par 5),Bogey,Double Bogey finish. He looked sure for 3rd place or a top 5 finish. I was on him too,albeit much shorter odds,in-running [/quote'] I don't bet each way, only the win, so it was fine by me :lol I think I actually prefer it this way, hopefully his odds wont shorten too much for the next time I want to back him. Keegan Bradley was something like $10 at the end of the 2nd Round -- he would have been at least $30 (like Knost was) had he not racked up that win. The odds drop very sharply for recent winners! Tringale definitely in my golfing blackbook though :ok

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Travelers Championship It's been a while since I've had a good result, so hopefully this week will turn things around! Two strong chances for me this week and another handful of players who I think have shown some promising leaderboard flirting. Hunter Mahan @ 15.5 Betfair Has won this event previously, as well as 2x 2nd places and a 4th. And all this in the last 5 years. Not a huge stake but not one I was willing to leave out. Webb Simpson @ 34 Betfair His -5 in the 3rd round of the US Open only reaffirms my belief he is about to notch up his first win on the PGA Tour. Ranks highly in a ton of stats including scoring average, ball striking etc. and I have a feeling that this could finally be the tournament. Now for the leaderboard flirts. Like most other attractive things in life, I'm probably wasting my time trying to chase them, but alas here I go anyway: Tommy Gainey @ 220 Betfair After back to back 3rd place finishes, Tommy has gone off the pace, missing 4 of 5 cuts. However, there is still some positives to like. Firstly, after his first Top 5 finish of the year, he missed 2/4 cuts and ranked quite lowly in the other 2. The two tournaments after this he got his 3rd placed finishes. I believe he was struggling with a few little niggles and after two weeks off I think he should be ready to return to form. Cameron Tringale @ 230 Betfair Has flirted with the leaderboard a couple of times lately (Texas Valero & St Jude) and I think he is another of the new breed of golfers who is going to win sooner rather than later. At these massive odds I'm happy to part with my money and hope that this is the week. Josh Teater @ 260 Betfair He was a contender at New Orleans heading into Saturday and started well a few weeks ago in both the Crowne Plaza and the Byron Nelson Classic. He was also towards the top end after the first round of the Shell Houston. So far this is a golfer who likes to do a little brief flirting before disappointing, but I have a feeling he could put out soon. Fabian Gomez @ 370 Betfair Caught my eye after shooting a -6 in the 3rd round of New Orleans to move in the Top 10 before shooting a +5 in the final round to fade. Was solid last start but beyond this I can't really point to any major reasons why he is on my watchlist. Playing off a hunch that he's going to present himself as a contender soon. Scott Stallings @ 250 Betfair Stallings is a monster driver and a player who I feel has been threatening to contend without really doing so (bar his 3rd at the Transitions Championship). Still, I feel he has good potential and whilst these odds continue to exist for him, the value is firmly in the backing camp.