celtic_hoops Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Transitions Championship Geoff Ogilvy hasnt started his round yet, got 49-1 on him, looks good value, plays par 3s well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hornet_18 Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Transitions Championship Might have noticed a link between records here and the John Deere Classic - both long par 71s so it's a possibility. Stricker has won the JDC twice and has a great record here, John Senden won at the JDC and has finished RU twice here, Sean O'Hair has won both, Vijay Singh has won both, Brett Quigley has RUs at both, Kenny Perry won the JDC and has 4 top 20s and never missed a cut here....OK, so you see where I'm going with it - it may be a coincidence but something else to bear in mind I guess. Just another note about this link which might be something to look into more next year. Garret Willis (SP of 400) who currently holds the halfway lead (assuming he doesnt get overtaken before end of the day) has good record there too - last 5 appearances there have all been inside the top 28 - and had really only played one good round here (however well he claims to know it). Food for thought :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Striker Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Transitions Championship Good Luck Lads Be interested in how Troy Matteson bounces back from a tournament he knows should have won last week,if mentally strong the 100-1 looks big,also like Carl Pettersson at the same odds But the main bet is on Webb Simpson @ 100-1 [bet365] Finished 13th last year and looks a better player now. Webb goes in todays final round 1 shot off the lead:hope and can be traded now on Betfair at 9.4 for a guaranteed profit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Transitions Championship Very impressive picking mate. That's two weeks in a row you've had a 100+ shot in contention on a Sunday. After last week's events I'm really hoping you land this one :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hornet_18 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Transitions Championship Just watched the final round. It was painful in all honesty, choking all over the place - perfect for trading I guess. Very unlucky Striker, but a healthy ew payout nonethless :clap On a different note, in Gary Woodlands first 32 PGA Tour tournaments (the last 3 years before this year) he only had one top 25 - at the John Deere Classic! He hit a 65 and 66 on the way to T21 last year. I know it's like a broken record but kind of proves my point! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Striker Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Transitions Championship Cheers guys Yes another decent pay day,and to be fair Gary looked the more solid in the home stretch That 100+ winner will come for me though..thats a promise! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Transitions Championship In 2 weeks you've had 2x 100-1+ shots come 2nd. Incredibly great tipping matched only by incredibly bad luck. I honestly think I'd have jumped by now. One things for sure though -- I'll be following your 100+ tips for the next few weeks :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerryPFC Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Transitions Championship In 2 weeks you've had 2x 100-1+ shots come 2nd. Incredibly great tipping matched only by incredibly bad luck. I honestly think I'd have jumped by now. One things for sure though -- I'll be following your 100+ tips for the next few weeks :hope What he said.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hornet_18 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Arnold Palmer Invitational I'm always looking for different ways to improve my betting so I've been looking into profiling winners and similarities from year to year so for the first time I'm going to try out a new profiling system to break down the field which, if successful, I'll continue to do in the future... 1) In the last 12 years - 10 of the winners have won in the previous 12 months; the other 2 winners had won in the previous 21 months. Only 2 of the last 27 winners at Bay Hill were winning their first PGA Tour tournament 2) Additionally, only 2 / 60 players who won or placed in the last 10 years were making their debut at the event. 11 of the last 12 winners had previously finished in the top 25 here (the other had finished T31) 3) 16 of the last 17 winners had finished in the top 10 already in that calendar year on the PGA Tour 4) 11 out of the past 17 winners had finished in the top 20 the week before - only one had missed the cut (Ernie Els in 1998) These four factors actually cut the field down to four players. No long shots but I'll give it a go! Hunter Mahan @ 26 ew Coral 1) Won twice last year 2) Top 25 in all of last 3 years 3) 4 top 10s in 7 tournaments last year 4) 9th last time out Justin Rose @ 34 ew PaddyPower 1) Won twice last year 2) Two top 25s in last 5 years (including a top 10) 3) 6 top 25s in 7 tournaments this season - includes two tops 10s in last 4 tournaments 4) Finished 5th last week Jim Furyk @ 41 ew PaddyPower 1) Won 3 times last year 2) 4 top 25s in last 6 visits here 3) Finshed top 10 in the first week this year 4) Finished 13th last week in the Transitions Tiger Woods @ 10 ToteSport (I know, I never thought I'd say that either but I guess 6 wins in 10 starts here over rules!!) 1) Won in September 2009 (in the last 21 months) 2) Has 6 wins here! 3) First top 10 of the year at Doral 4) Top 10 last time out To be fair, while it's a new profiling method I'm trying out, I'm quite happy with the picks! GL :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerryPFC Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Arnold Palmer Invitational I'm always looking for different ways to improve my betting so I've been looking into profiling winners and similarities from year to year so for the first time I'm going to try out a new profiling system to break down the field which, if successful, I'll continue to do in the future... 1) In the last 12 years - 10 of the winners have won in the previous 12 months; the other 2 winners had won in the previous 21 months. Only 2 of the last 27 winners at Bay Hill were winning their first PGA Tour tournament 2) Additionally, only 2 / 60 players who won or placed in the last 10 years were making their debut at the event. 11 of the last 12 winners had previously finished in the top 25 here (the other had finished T31) 3) 16 of the last 17 winners had finished in the top 10 already in that calendar year on the PGA Tour 4) 11 out of the past 17 winners had finished in the top 20 the week before - only one had missed the cut (Ernie Els in 1998) These four factors actually cut the field down to four players. No long shots but I'll give it a go! Hunter Mahan @ 26 ew Coral 1) Won twice last year 2) Top 25 in all of last 3 years 3) 4 top 10s in 7 tournaments last year 4) 9th last time out Justin Rose @ 34 ew PaddyPower 1) Won twice last year 2) Two top 25s in last 5 years (including a top 10) 3) 6 top 25s in 7 tournaments this season - includes two tops 10s in last 4 tournaments 4) Finished 5th last week Jim Furyk @ 41 ew PaddyPower 1) Won 3 times last year 2) 4 top 25s in last 6 visits here 3) Finshed top 10 in the first week this year 4) Finished 13th last week in the Transitions Tiger Woods @ 10 ToteSport (I know, I never thought I'd say that either but I guess 6 wins in 10 starts here over rules!!) 1) Won in September 2009 (in the last 21 months) 2) Has 6 wins here! 3) First top 10 of the year at Doral 4) Top 10 last time out To be fair, while it's a new profiling method I'm trying out, I'm quite happy with the picks! GL :ok Absolute Respect for what you do and the time you put in. :hope it bares fruit! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Arnold Palmer Invitational Hornet, your research is fantastic :clap. I have my fingers crossed for you, I hope it pays off. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Striker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Arnold Palmer Invitational Good Luck this week Couple of players i like at 100+ Ben Curtis @ 110-1 [bet365]..Missed cut last week,but not worried as under par in second round. Has had two top tens at bay hill in recent years Chad Campbell @ 100-1 [bet365]..Like the way he has played in last couple of tournaments after a bad run of form.Former winner here also Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Arnold Palmer Invitational Good luck this week Striker. Ben Curtis was on my original list too -- Campbell wasn't, but he's on my final list now :hope As usually I'm really just basing bets on course form relative to odds. I've gone with: Sergio Garcia @ 60 - 5x Top 10 in 9 starts. Opened very well last week but didn't have a good weekend. Ben Curtis @ 150 - A 4th and a 6th here in the last 4 outings. 2 MCs in between. As a win only backer, I love a golfer who goes hard or goes home. Stephen Ames @ 170 - 4x Top 10 finishes here. Had 2 very good rounds in Puerto Rico and if he brings that sort of form and combines it with his ability to play on this course he might just have a sight. Kenny Perry @ 430 - In the last 7 visits here he has a win, a 2nd, a Top 10 and a Top 15 finish. This combo of course form + odds for a player like Perry, regardless of form, makes me a backer in this spot. Rocco Mediate @ 800 - Okay, this one is really stretching it. But he has 2x Top 3 finishes here in the last 9 years, and if he was in contention on Sunday I'd be kicking myself if I weren't on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Arnold Palmer Invitational ^^ All bets with Betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Striker Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Arnold Palmer Invitational Good Luck this week Couple of players i like at 100+ Ben Curtis @ 110-1 [bet365]..Missed cut last week,but not worried as under par in second round. Has had two top tens at bay hill in recent years..M/C Chad Campbell @ 100-1 [bet365]..Like the way he has played in last couple of tournaments after a bad run of form.Former winner here also.. + 3 No sweaty palms for this sunday:spank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hornet_18 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Arnold Palmer Invitational OK, so the winning profile didnt quite hold up but Justin Rose manages an each way place which is a decent start (and Furyk also finished a respectable top 10). Breaking down how the each way places fared on the winning profiles below: Martin Laird - went along with 3 of the traits; had won in past 21 months; had a top 10 already this year; and finished in top 20 last week (T5). However, while not making his debut here, had never finished inside the top 25. 3 / 4. Steve Marino - 2 of the traits; has a good record here and finished top 11 last year; already has a couple of top 10s this year. However, has never won on the PGA Tour and missed the cut last week which are two big no-nos here! 2 / 4 Justin Rose - discussed above. 4 / 4 Marc Leishman - has a top 10 already this year. However, best finish here was T40 last year; finished outside the top 25 last week; and has never won on the PGA Tour. 1 / 4 David Toms - has 4 top 25s here; has a top 10 this year. However, hasnt won since early 2006 and finished T37 last week. 2 / 4 Interesting stuff that with the four other e/w payouts who were in contention (as Rose just had a good back nine coming from miles away and therefore I dont really count him!), the one who fit the profile best actually won. I know he was out to about 10/1 at some point after hitting into the water so possible money maker in the final rounds in the future. Will have to keep tabs on this! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCAKER Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Arnold Palmer Invitational Hornet, great work this week, I think it will definitely leave you in profit overall. It would be interesting to see if you were able to weight the categories you use and then increase the number of players you include. For instance Marino?laird might have made the cut if you were going for as many as ten runners.... Laird was unbelievably impressive yesterday. He putted his boots off all round and whilst it looks like he was playing horribly at 5 over thru 11, he wasn't actually striking the ball that badly. Obviously the course was set up extremely hard and for that full credit to Rose who continues to display his talents best on the better courses. I cant help but feel his best chance of a major might well prove to be at the US Open in years to come. For Laird to finish as well as he did, with the pressure at its highest and to execute like he did was top class. Having said that he is a top 5 lay at The Masters, too tough for the debutantes, not least because of the whole occassion, you think about how much we love it as punters/viewers imagine what it is like for the players/families!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hornet_18 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Arnold Palmer Invitational Thanks ELCAKER. I was thinking about a sort of weighting system on categories but it depends on the week; for example there were four who fit the criteria last week, but this week there is only one (to follow later!). As for Laird, I really like him as a player but despite his two wins, I'm still not convinced by him in contention. His putting has improved no end this year though which will always help and showed on the 72nd yesterday. With the MASTERS it's a well known fact that debutant winners dont come about too frequently - I think it's 3...ever, and Fuzzy Zoeller was the last in 1979 so I dont expect him to do anything to trouble the leaders that week. I know it's not until next week but I'm looking forward to it...and seem to have a ridiculous antepost portfolio in place already!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hornet_18 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Arnold Palmer Invitational Just to note; after the first week, working to level stakes, 1 unit e/w or 2 units outright (if specified), the profiling is currently +1.25 units from 8 units bet. ROI 15.63%. This week is the Shell Houston Open which has been on the calendar for decades...but has only been played at this course since 2003 so may of the profiles will only have held up for 7 or 8 years. 1) 6 / 7 winners have been in the top 20 for Driving Distance in the previous calendar year. For this I will look at top 20 from last year and so far this year. 2) 7 / 8 winners have been in top 50 for par 5 birdie % in last calendar year (4 of these were in the top 10). Again like above I will look at last year and so far this year. 3) 5 / 7 winners had a previous top 10 on this course. 4) 6 / 7 winners had already had a top 2 this year. I'm looking at the Driving Distance and par 5 % as the key pointers for this week. Only one player fits all 4 criteria, and 5 others fit the top 2 and one of 3 or 4. I will be taking 1pt ew on each player. Robert Garrigus @ 126 ew SkyBet - 4 / 4 1) 7th in DD this year and 1st last year. 2) 29th in par 5 birdie % this year, and just outside the threshold in 53rd last year. 3) 5th here in 2007. 4) Finished 2nd in the season opener in Hawaii. JB Holmes @ 41 ew PP - 3 / 4 1) 5th in DD last year, 4th this year. 2) 5th in par 5 % last year, 16th this year. 3) 2nd here two years ago. 4) Two top 5s, but no win or RU this year so far. Jason Day @ 61 ew BetFred - 3 / 4 1) 15th in DD in 2010, 11th this year. 2) 47th in par 5 % in 2010. 3) 8th here in 2008. 4) Has two top 10s, but no win or RU this year so far. Gary Woodland @ 61 ew ToteSport - 3 / 4 1) 6th in DD last year, 9th this year. 2) 5th in par 5 birdie % last year, 23rd this year. 3) No great record here - has one missed cut in 2009. 4) A win two weeks ago, and a playoff loss earlier in the season. Aaron Baddeley @ 51 ew BetFred - 3 / 4 1) 14th in DD last year. 2) 46th in par 5 birdie % last year, 27th this year. 3) Top 14 in 2008 but no top 10 here. 4) Winner already this year. Phil Mickelson @ 19 ew PP - 3 / 4 1) 13th in DD last year. 2) 2nd in par 5 birdie % last year; 4th this year. 3) Best finish here of 23rd in 2008. 4) 2nd in Farmer Insurance Open early in the season. GL :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Arnold Palmer Invitational Super research there mate - I'm sure it will come up trumps for you soon. I'll even follow on the 100-1+ shots :ok A few for me. As always, course form is the main (if not only) consideration Jeff Maggert @ 1000 Betfair Wouldn't be a first time winner but he'd certainly be a surprise one. Since the venue changed to the current course he has 3 Top 10s and a 14th. More of a spec than anything but you can never rule out the old guys performing well on beloved courses - just look at Norman and Watson in recent Majors. Johnson Wagner @ 100 Betfair A former winner at this course with a top 10 to boot. Though he's only made 2/6 cuts, he does have a win this year. Winner on this course + winner during this season + odds in 3 figure range = BACK! By no means done yet but these are the ones I've been matched on so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Arnold Palmer Invitational Have also taken Wagner for 1st Round Leader @ 101 (Sportingbet AU) Wagner has hit an opening 66 and 63 here in recent years and I believe that on both occassions this was enough to either win this market outright or win with a split. He's a former winner on this course and has won on tour this year. Stuart Appleby @ 51 Sportingbet AU Appleby has a remarkable record at this course. In 6 visits he has 1x Victory and 2x T-2nd. He's never missed the cut and his worst finish is 44th. He's also been in decent form this year, with no less than 5 Top 15 finishes. Returning to a course on which he has had great success could prove the catalyst for turning this solid form into a winner's trophy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Arnold Palmer Invitational Fred Couples @ 70 Betfair Couples has a stellar record on this course. In 5 appearances he's won once, had a third and a fourth and never missed the cut. Took a decent lead into the weekend a few weeks back but wasn't able to capitalize. Still, he's in decent enough nick and the odds are tasty. That's me for this tournament :ok With follow Hornet with Garrigus and whatever Striker is serving up this week. Also interesting to note the PGA site also has Day in their power rankings, so might have to take him too, seeing as he is in Hornet's list as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theoldmaster Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Shell Houston Open Hornet excellent reasoning and system i'm on with you on all your PGA events this is what this site is all about Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerryPFC Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Shell Houston Open Hornet excellent reasoning and system i'm on with you on all your PGA events this is what this site is all about Couldn't agree more. Interestingly, Day has been backed in with most bookies... But Garrigus who fits all 4 of the criteria is available at 150/1 with Tote and Coral. As Hornet is certain he'll win, I've sold the house, car, wife and son and lumped it on the nose! No pressure hornet :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hornet_18 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Shell Houston Open Couldn't agree more. Interestingly, Day has been backed in with most bookies... But Garrigus who fits all 4 of the criteria is available at 150/1 with Tote and Coral. As Hornet is certain he'll win, I've sold the house, car, wife and son and lumped it on the nose! No pressure hornet :rollin *Gulp* :unsure But I shouldnt be nervous...he's a sure thing :dude Do like the play on Jason Day though - think I would've taken him either way. Lives in Texas. Won in Texas last year. Has that top 10 finish here in 08 where he finished 69-65 so I think he has the game for the course. But no...it's all about Robert Garrigus! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Striker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Shell Houston Open Good Luck Lads I like couple of 100+ players Tommy Gainey @ 150-1 [Coral]..Missed cut last week but huge odds if producing earlier Honda and Phoenix form Brian Davis @ 150-1 [Coral]..My main bet on this guy who i think is another Martin Laird waiting to happen.Coming here off best finish so far this season last week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theboybroon Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Shell Houston Open I'll have a go at three outsiders who are not without a chance of going well this week, and imo are all overpriced on Betfair. Hopefully they have a good week and i can get trading somewhere along the line. Bryce Molder @ 180 A player i've kept a close eye on since the british open in 2009 and i think he will keep improving over the next few years. Missed the last 3 cuts which is why his price is what it is, but he's had a three week break and will come in to the tournament fresh. Molder is a very solid/good putter and an excellent scrambler(both important imo) and with a T8 last year in his 2nd time playing in this tournament, it would be of no surprise to myself to see him return to the form we saw from him at pebble back in February on a course he played so well on last year and go well again this week. Roland Thatcher @ 320 & 330 Easily having his best year ever on the PGA tour with some fine finishes this year. His putting stats are a worry but what do we expect at these odds, however his scrambling stats are a positive. Finished T22 here last year and T19 back in 2006 so he clearly knows how to handle the course, and with him playing the best golf of his career, i think he could have a good week again at tasty odds. Alex Prugh @ 330 & 360 Had a fair start to the season with some really solid finishes, and although he's missed his last two cuts, last year he missed three in a row before finishing a very respectable T22 here last year on his rookie year on the PGA tour. Although i mentioned Length being overated, he can hit it a long way, is a solid enough putter and for a player with a big future ahead of him i'll take a chance on the young American making a fast start this week like he did last year, leading after the 2nd round. Barring a very poor 3rd round he would have had a chance to take the winners cheque, if not at least a a top 5 finish, so at these odds i'll take my chances of another possible nice trading opportunity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theboybroon Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Shell Houston Open One more long shot for me, some how i missed he was even in the field. Greg Chalmers @ 500 & 510 again with Betfair. The Aussie is starting to find his feet on the PGA tour finishing 79th in 09 then 69th last season and it is my belief that he can keep progressing playing in the states and better his recent fed-ex fininishes. No recent form to go on but he has played well here before, resides in Texas and with him being one of the best putters and scramblers around, the price is massive(generally 200s but coral go 300s with the bookies) and it's a no brainer trading opportunity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackierubberleg Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Shell Houston Open Shaun Michel EW 200/1 bet365 Shaun Michel Top Ten Finish 16/1 bet365. Micheal has made the last five regulation cuts and with two mid twenty finishes followed by 5th place last year he would appear considerable betting value on this course which he obviously takes to. A Major winner in the past should strenghten Michel's nerve come Sunday if he happens to be in contention. His recent run of working the weekend shows his overall game to be reasonable and if he is a little on form, then who knows. GL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hornet_18 Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Arnold Palmer Invitational Johnson Wagner @ 100 Betfair A former winner at this course with a top 10 to boot. Though he's only made 2/6 cuts, he does have a win this year. Winner on this course + winner during this season + odds in 3 figure range = BACK! By no means done yet but these are the ones I've been matched on so far. Johnson Wagner sitting right up there again, great shout...but I'm still hoping one of my boys will pull through so I'll be booing him all the way :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.