skylark2009 Posted May 21, 2011 Author Share Posted May 21, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +1403.82pts A quiet day considering the number and quality of todays meetings. Four bets in total. #411 2.25 Chester: Question Times - all stakes 70.8pts @ 4/7 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% #412 3.25 Chester: Tortoni - all stakes 70.8ots @ 1/2 William Hill (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% #413 5.00 Goodwood: Anton Dolin - all stakes 50.7pts @ 2/1 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #414 6.05 Newbury: Miss Bounty - all stakes 44.5pts @ 7/1 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +1403.82pts Six bets today with two of the horses being dutched. #415 2.15 Leicester: George Baker - all stakes 53.5pts @ 15/8 William Hill (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #416 2.30 Carlisle: Fremen - all stakes 48.8pts @ 2/1 Boylesports (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #417 4.14 Leicester: Jaqueline Quest - all stakes 75.6pts @ 4/9 William Hill (BOG) - assessed probability 50% #418 6.10 Windsor: Tioman Legend - all stakes 62.1pts @ 7/4 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% - dutched with bet #419 #419 6.10 Windsor: Lord Of The Shadows - all stakes 37.6pts @ 7/2 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% - dutched with bet #418 #420 7.00 Thirsk: Miss Muga - all stakes 50.6pts @ 5/2 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +1261.12pts Four bets today. #420 3.30 Lingfield: I Confess - all stakes 52.7pts @ 11/10 Stan James - assessed probability 33% to 50% #421 4.10 Ripon: Finn's Rainbow - all stakes 42.3pts @ 6/1 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #422 4.20 Chepstow: Beaumont's Party - all stakes 72.1pts @ 5/6 William Hill (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #423 4.50 Chepstow: Westhaven - all stakes 45.4pts @ 3/1 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +1285.67pts Four bets today. #424 2.20 Sedgefield: Abergavenny - all stakes 74.4pts @ 4/9 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #425 6.10 Punchestown: Archie Boy - all stakes 48PTS @ 9/4 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #426 6.30 Beverley: Elmaam - all stakes 74.4pts @ 2/7 William Hill (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #427 9.00 Beverley: Caravan Rolls On - all stakes 49.8pts @ 9/4 Skybet - assessed probability 33% to 50% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +1410.20pts Five bets today with three very short 'shorties'. #428 3.10 Brighton: Tidal Bay - all stakes 49.2pts @ 4/1 Stan James - assessed probability 33% to 50% #429 4.40 Brighton: Dysios - all stakes 79.6pts @ 2/5 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #430 5.40 Wetherby: Sounds Of Thunder - all stakes 79.6pts @ 1/5 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #431 5.50 Newcastle: Lexington Spirit - all stakes 79.6pts @ 2/5 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #432 6.55 Newcastle: Dubai Dynamo - all stakes 57.3pts @ 7/4 William Hill (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% - Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +1432.50pts Nine bets today. #432 2.45 Newcastle: Captain Brown - all stakes 81.4pts @ 8/11 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #433 2.55 Newmarket: Instance - all stakes 53.6pts @ 5/2 Bet365 - assessed probability 33% to 50% #434 3.05 Brighton: Integria - all stakes 72.3pts @ 10/11 Stan James - assessed probability 33% to 50% #435 4.30 Newcastle: Kylnch - all stakes 48.8pts @ 7/2 Skybet - assessed probability 25% to 50% #436 5.25 Brighton: Exchange - all stakes 51.6pts @ 11/4 Stan James - assessed probability 25% to 33% #437 6.25 Pontefract: Mont Ras - all stakes 53.6pts @ 2/1 William Hill (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% #438 7.05 Haydock: Noble Storm - all stakes 58.1pts @ 11/10 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% #439 7.30 Pontefract: Caspar Netscher - all stakes 58.1pts @ 11/10 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% #440 8.05 Pontefract: Chosen Character - all stakes 66pts @ 15/8 VCbet (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted May 30, 2011 Author Share Posted May 30, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +1696.00pts Nine bets today, two of which are dutched. #441 2.50 Towcester: Chrysander - all stakes 65.4pts @ 1/1 Skybet - assessed probability 33% to 50% #442 2.55 Carlisle: Pelmanism - all stakes 55.3pts @ 4/1 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50%+ #443 3.15 Leicester: Bernisdale - all stakes 91.2pts @ 10/11 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #444 3.20 Cartmel: Maid In Moscow - all stakes 65.4pts @ 6/5 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50%+ #445 3.30 Carlisle: Amazing Blue Sky - all stakes 37.6pts @ 6/1 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% - dutched with bet #446 #446 3.30 Carlisle: Hong Kong Island - all stakes 66.3pts @ 7/2 William Hill (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% - dutched with bet #445 #447 4.00 Towcester: The Strawberry One - all stakes 91.2pts @ 4/7 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #448 4.20 Goodwood: Hecton Lad - all stakes 50pts @ 8/1 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #449 5.50 Carlisle: Epernay - all stakes 91.2pts @ 5/6 William Hill (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted May 30, 2011 Author Share Posted May 30, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted May 30, 2011 Author Share Posted May 30, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +1612.37pts Five bets tomorrow (31/05/11). #450 3.45 Leicester: Jack's Revenge - all stakes 72.4pts @ best odds achievable or SP - assessed probability 50%+ - expected price of 1/1 to 2/1 #451 4.45 Leicester: Verinco - all stakes 53.2pts @ 9/2 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% #452 5.00 Redcar: Lady Kildare - all stakes 52.2pts @ 3/1 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #453 5.40 Ffos Las: Stonethrower - all stakes 63.1pts @ best odds achievable or SP - assessed probability 33% to 50% - expected price of 1/1 to 6/4 #454 5.50 Yarmouth: Mabroor - all stakes 61.4pts @ best odds achievable or SP - assessed probability 25% to 33% - expected price of 1/1 to 2/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +1310.07pts As a result of working overtime this week, I've been unable to put up selections from Wednesday to Friday. The total profit in the title was updated after Tuesdays five losing bets and the results for Tuesday and today's bets wil be posted after today's racing. Onto today's bets, a total of twelve bets with two being dutched in the Derby. #455 2.15 Hexam: Forestside - all stakes 78pts @ 4/11 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #456 2.35 Musselburgh: Es Que Love - all stakes 63.1pts @ 1/1 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #457 3.00 Worcester: Loughnagall - all stakes 53.4pts @ 6/4 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #458 3.40 Musselburgh: Racy - all stakes 44.5pts @ 4/1 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #459 3.55 Doncaster: War Poet - all stakes 53.4pts @ 15/8 Skybet - assessed probability 25% to 33% #460 4.00 Epsom: Carlton House - all stakes 58.9pts @ 11/4 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% - dutched with bet #461 #461 4.00 Epsom: Recital - all stakes 33pts @ 5/1 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% - dutched with bet #460 #462 4.10 Worcester: Ballabrook - all stakes 48.2pts @ 9/4 VCbet (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #463 5.05 Doncaster: Eland Ally - all stakes 78pts @ 4/11 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #464 5.10 Worcester: Cock Of The Rock - all stakes 68.7pts @ 4/5 Paddy Power (BOG) assessed probability 33% to 50% #465 5.20 Musselburgh: Jeu De Vivre - all stakes 78pts @ 1/6 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #466 7.45 Lingfield: Carlton Scroop - all stakes 48.2pts @ 9/4 William Hill (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +1256.86pts Three bets. #467 6.00 Hamilton: North Central - all stakes 43pts @ 9/2 Skybet - assessed probability 25% to 33% #468 7.15 Kempton: Speightowns Kid - all stakes 46.8pts @ 5/2 Skybet - assessed probability 25% to 33% #469 8.00 Hamilton: Fremen - all stakes 53.7pts @ 11/8 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +1256.86pts Four bets today. Updates tomorrow sometime. #470 5.05 Sandown: Grumeti - all stakes 71.1pts @ 11/8 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #471 6.25 Chepstow: Factory Time - all stakes 71.1pts @ 13/8 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #472 7.55 Goodwood: Club Oceanic - all stakes 47.8pts @ 7/4 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #473 9.00 Goodwood: Dashwood - all stakes 49.3pts @ 11/10 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted June 11, 2011 Author Share Posted June 11, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted June 11, 2011 Author Share Posted June 11, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +1361.01pts Three bets today. The Sea Moon bet (if it wins), will likely have a R4 as a non runner has been declared after placing the bet. #474 3.50 York: Sea Moon - all stakes 57.1pts @ 1/1 Stan James - assessed probability 33% to 50% #475 4.30 Chester: Getcarter - all stakes 45.9pts @ 7/2 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #476 5.30 York: Collect Art - all stakes 41.6pts @ 6/1 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +1361.01pts Three bets today. #477 2.00 Salisbury: Nibani - all stakes 54.3pts @ 13/8 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #478 4.05 Salisbury: Harbour Watch - all stakes 48.1pts @ 9/4 Stan James - assessed probability 25% to 33% #479 5.20 Salisbury: Dubawi Dancer - all stakes 48.1pts @ 2/1 William Hill (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted June 13, 2011 Author Share Posted June 13, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +1361.01pts Two bets today. #480 4.15 Carlisle: Judicious - all stakes 54.3pts @ 6/4 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #481 7.00 Windsor: Prince Of Sorrento - all stakes 48.2pts @ 9/4 William Hill (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +1361.01pts Five bets today with Canford Cliffs/Goldikova being dutched. #482 1.45 Thirsk: First Bid - all stakes 53.1pts @ best odds achievable or SP - assessed probability 33% to 50% - expected SP between 1/1 and 2/1 #483 2.30 Ascot: Canford Cliffs - all stakes 53.1pts @ 6/4 William Hill (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% - dutched with bet #484 #484 2.30 Ascot: Goldikova - all stakes 53.1pts @ 13/8 William Hill (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% - dutched with bet #483 #485 3.45 Ascot: Frankel - all stakes 79.1pts @ 2/5 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #486 5.35 Ascot: Frederick Engels - all stakes 41.2pts @ 4/1 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +1361.01pts Feive bets for tomorrow. Planteur/So You Think are dutched. #487 2.30 Ascot: Codemaster - all stakes 46.6pts@ 3/1 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #488 3.45 Ascot: Planteur - all stakes 33.5pts @ 4/1 William Hill (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% - dutched with bet #489 #489 3.45 Ascot: So You Think - all stakes 98.5pts @ 4/9 William Hill (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ - dutched with bet #488 #490 5.00 Ascot: Shumoos - all stakes 67.6pts @ 5/4 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #491 7.10 Kempton: Seelo - all stakes 50.2pts @ 2/1 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 25%to 33% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angeal Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +1361.01pts Hi Skylark Thank you for putting this to the test - love to see somebody doing well. Are you surprised to see stragey 2 givng the best % return? I am assuming you are using strategy 1 for actual betting? Either way a profit is good so well done. Al Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted June 18, 2011 Author Share Posted June 18, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted June 18, 2011 Author Share Posted June 18, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +1101.71pts Are you surprised to see stragey 2 givng the best % return? I'm not at all surprised to see level staking yield doing well using my selection methods. But don't forget that the yield expressed as a percentage is only a snapshot of how good or bad of any betting methods used are at the particular point in time the calculation is done, it may not represent accurately the long term yield of any betting methods used. I am assuming you are using strategy 1 for actual betting? Al The points I award for each bet are a consolidation of the four staking strategies I am using in this thread and not exclusively from the variable staking strategy. In the previous results post. The current points to be awarded for the next days betting for each strategy can be found highlighted in light red for strategies 2,3 and 4, and from the 'adjusted stakes' table for strategy 1. E.g. Their are four bets today. Bet 1 is Margot Did (current SP of around 10/11 or 4/5), which I assess as a 50%+ chance of winning. The points awarded will be - 40.6pts for strategy one from the variable stakes table (the intersection at =50%+) 5.5pts for stategy two (level stakes) 15.1pts for strategy three (square root stakes) 10.4pts for strategy four (percentage stakes) Added together will give me a consolidated stake of 71.6pts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted June 18, 2011 Author Share Posted June 18, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +1101.71pts Four bets today. #492 2.20 Ayr: Margot Did - all stakes 71.6pts @ 10/11 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #493 2.30 Ascot: Maybe -all stakes 49.4pts @ 15/8 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% #494 3.10 Newmarket: Bonnie Brae - all stakes 40.1pts @ 3/1 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% #495 5.40 Redcar: Chester Deelyte - all stakes 39.1pts @ 7/2 Stan James - assessed probability 25% to 33% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted June 18, 2011 Author Share Posted June 18, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +1211.10pts Five bets today, which will take the total bets for this GH to five hundred if there are no non runners, (bets are in the next unedited post). I will also be closing down the two progressive banks and concentrate on only the variable stakes bank and the level stakes bank for betting purposes after today's bets. If today's bets all lost the the square root stakes will only have approx 33pts left , while the percentage stakes will have approx 183pts (a respectable profit for this slow burning progressive strategy). I think there have been enough bets to determine that even with a respectable strike rate of 44%, progressive staking requires a much larger strike rate or bigger returned SP's to be effective, and hope it gives anyone who has been dropping in on this thread a better insight into staking strategies, i.e Progressive staking versus what I consider to be the more sensible staking methods of either variable staking or level staking. Any profits left in the two progressive banks will be withdrawn and banked (so as not to affect the two remaining banks if left in) and the title will be changed to reflect the two redundant strategies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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