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NFL Week Seventeen Picks

AGurv

By AGurv
in NFL Predictions

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AGurv

AGurv

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NFL 2010-2011 Overall 36W-26L-1P +5.50 units (58.06%)
Last Week 2-1 Got lucky to win the Saints. The 49ers was a dumbass pick, though they had some chances, they completely got outplayed. Week 17 is a tough week cuz u don't know whos really motivated in these games Steelers -5.5 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes A homer play, but the Browns have been on the slide for a few weeks now (few decades really), even after McCoy came back. Hillis is the biggest part of there offense, the Steelers can contain him. Cribbs always gives a shit ton of problems but I think we can overcome that. In a game that determines homefield, and a bye week. I think we see the Steelers come out, control the ball, and end up winning this by a few scores
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AGurv

AGurv

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Re: NFL Week Seventeen Picks

Chargers -3 (-120) to win 1 unit @ 5dimes I will buy into this. This has "sucker" all over it. But I can almost see the NFL live guys saying "why didnt the chargers play like this all year" after this game is over. The downside is, Turner isn't playing for his job. Bronco's have had some horrible games this year, even with how Tebow is playing, Chargers might win this one easily.
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TazaD

TazaD

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Re: NFL Week Seventeen Picks It does seem like a bit of a weird line...not sure SL are going along all that well... :\ TB @ NO under 47 (Sportingbet) League: 2-12 under (Av. -7.3...none over 47) home 7+ fav off a 1-3 SU win as road (-3 +3) with 34+ TOP. [NO] NO know how important this game is...their D stepped up big time last week and I can see them smothering the TB running game this week as well. Actually a high number for a NO home game anyway, only 2 have gone over this number all season, scored big v. Seattle and an OT game v. Atl way back. 2 very good pass D's will mean the ground game will be the priority. SF -6 (1.92 @ Pinnacle) Bit of a quirky schedule has made this line too low...Zona have played 4 of their last 5 at home, lost the one road game by 7 at a prety bad Carolina...got stupidly lucky last week getting their first 14 points early from picks...had the ball for under 22 mins and gave up over 150 on the ground! SF are the opposite...have played just 1 of last 5 at home...beat Seattle easily...have played just 2 other non-play-off bound teams and won by 8 v. both Oakland and Denver. They won the first meeting @ Arizona by 21 with Troy Smith and Westbrook. Jags @ Houston under 47 (1.84 @ Pinnacle) Being a bit soft here and buying 1/2, but nice number to have. No Gerrard, no MJD**...managed only 17 last week v. an awful Wash D... ...Houston run D has been under-rated all season, and not sure how Edwards can take advantage on the pass... ...Jags D actually did play well last week. Took away everything deep all day, and without Johnson to stretch them, it could be a lot of little short passes and a large dose of Foster. NYG ML (1.54 @ SportsAlive) Yes, Washington's D is awful, and they did get a bit lucky last week given they got held to ~250 total yards and punted 9 times!! Not comfortable taking any more than 3, but I'll be surprised if NYG don't win this game. Rodgers over 285.5 passing (1.83 @ Ladbrokes) Missed the 279.5 boat @ 365, but I'm sure 6 won't matter... :unsure Has been over this number in 9 games (inc. 316 @ Chicago), and Bears are jujst 18th in pass D...and even that's a bit deceptive. They have given up a LOT of yards to QB's with good numbers...369 to Brady (in a blizzard!), 333 to Vick, 374 to Romo early...299 to Fitzpatrick...269 to Sanchez even! Packers have some defensive problems too, so even if Chicago rest some starters this could be a shoot out. ** Which unfortunately has just about killed the Jags Div hopes (although them winning and Indi losing isn't totally out of the question :hope... ...but it does give Turner a realistic chance to get up in the rushing prop. Needs to beat C-J by 20ish...at home, v. Carolina...112 v. them first meeting...105 v. them here last year...come on son! :beer Good luck guys. :ok

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fagdi

fagdi

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Re: NFL Week Seventeen Picks Cleveland-Pittsburgh ; Pittsburgh -9.5 ; 10units ; odds: 2.40 ; bet365 ( CLE : PIT ) : yards per game 294:341 ; yards per game allowed 346:280 ; points per game 18:22 ; points per game allowed 19:15. Passing leaders ( CLE : PIT ) : TDs 5:15, intercepted passes 6:5. Rushing leaders ( CLE : PIT): TDs 12:11. Receiving leaders ( CLE : PIT ) : TDs 5:13. Injured players for CLE : Peyton Hillis RB , Kenyon Coleman , Shaun Rogers , Floyd Womack (all questionable). Injured players for PIT : James Harrison , Chris Scott , Mewelde Moore , Aaron Smith , Troy Polamalu , Jason Worilds (all questionable). Pittsburgh have to win this to secure a home field advantage in the early stages of the playoffs. Pittsburgh are the better team. Pittsburgh are gerat on road team. Pittsburgh are better offensive team (16th and 9th) than Cleveland (30th and 19th). And are better defencive team (14th and 1st) than Cleveland (13th and 26th).

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blackcrow

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Re: NFL Week Seventeen Picks Pittsburgh -6.5 @ 2.13 pinnacle Pittsburg need a win here to get the AFC North title as well a first round bye. They beat Cleveland 28-10 earlier in the season and like them to repeat it here again. Their defence is very good while Cleveland's offence is ordinary and now face a very good rush defence, as well as very good blitzing team in pressuring the QB. While Cleveland's defence has done well of late, there is too much at stake and believe a committed Steerlers side to win this game Green Bay -10.5 @ 2.01 pinnacle Packers need a win to get the wild card spot while Chicago are already in the playoffs and would not be surprised that they rest of their starters for this game. Packers should have won the first game earlier in the year but beat themselves with penalties. Here they will be much more focused and will ride the arm of Rodgers who can exploit a Chicago secondary as they average 33 points at home. Must win game for them and like them to beat their rivals here Overall: 44-51 (+12.21)

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fagdi

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Re: NFL Week Seventeen Picks Atlanta-Carolina ; Atlanta -16.5 ; 10units ; odds : 2.15 ; bet365 ( ATL : CAR ) : yards per game 340:256 ; yards per game allowed 335:335 ; points per game 26:12 ; points per game allowed 19:25. Passing leaders ( ATL : CAR ) : TDs 26:2, intercepted passes 9:8. Rushing leaders ( ATL : CAR): TDs 13:5. Receiving leaders ( ATL : CAR ) : TDs 14:5. Injured players for ATL : Jonathan Babineaux , Kroy Biermann , Curtis Lofton , Todd McClure (all questionable). Injured players for CAR : Tony Fiammetta , Chris Gamble , Ed Johnson (all out) , Steve Smith is questionable. Atlanta need this win to secure the first place and home field in the playoffs. They are playing against the worst offence in the NFL and really should have the easiest of games. The only question is how much TDs they want to score.

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allthethings

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Re: NFL Week Seventeen Picks

Pittsburgh -6.5 @ 2.13 pinnacle Pittsburg need a win here to get the AFC North title as well a first round bye. They beat Cleveland 28-10 earlier in the season and like them to repeat it here again. Their defence is very good while Cleveland's offence is ordinary and now face a very good rush defence, as well as very good blitzing team in pressuring the QB. While Cleveland's defence has done well of late, there is too much at stake and believe a committed Steerlers side to win this game Green Bay -10.5 @ 2.01 pinnacle Packers need a win to get the wild card spot while Chicago are already in the playoffs and would not be surprised that they rest of their starters for this game. Packers should have won the first game earlier in the year but beat themselves with penalties. Here they will be much more focused and will ride the arm of Rodgers who can exploit a Chicago secondary as they average 33 points at home. Must win game for them and like them to beat their rivals here Overall: 44-51 (+12.21)
Your season has turned into a big success lately (way better than mine, I might add), but I have the opponents in both games. Cleveland has actually been playing opponents tough, and think they can get something playing their biggest rival at home. I think you're right bout GB in the sense of their need to win, but Chicago-GB is the league's biggest rivalry and Chicago is a pretty good team...10.5 is just a huge number of points no matter what the motivation. This whole week looks weird to me...Tenn +9.5, Car +14, Chi +10 all look good to me. Haven't decided how many to play yet, though, even just 90 minutes away. Good luck today
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meatman

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Re: NFL Week Seventeen Picks Well some of you might be surprised about me having a few bets in here, but it's actually a sport I follow a lot and take quite a few bets. With no football around this part of year, it gives me a chance to concentrate more on NFL, so here are some of my selections today :- Steelers @ Browns under 37.5 @ 1.91 (5/10) I personally see this being a tight divisional contest in which there is a fair bit of rivalry. The Steelers just need to win to clinch the number 2 seed, they don’t need anything fancy just as long as they get the job done. Everyone knows how strong their defence is :- easily the best against the rush and strong in the backfield too. The browns have a poor enough offence anyway, any threat they have comes through Hillis, but we saw last week how the Ravens easily stopped him, it’ll be similar here. Unless McCoy gets a few decent passes downfield I struggle to see where they’re going to get many points from, maybe 10-13 at best. In the last few weeks their offence has been poor, and that’s against the likes of the Bills and Benglas. Nevertheless, I also think Pitts might not score too heavily either, they arrant the most prolific and have netted over 25 in just 1 of the last 5 weeks (and that was facing the Panthers). Steelers don’t have to do anything special here and I think under 37.5 looks like a good bet. I can see something like 20-10 or maybe even less, both teams will fight hard and the Browns fans will demand commitment against their most bitter rivals. Colts -9 @ 1.91 (6/10) The Colts need to win to ensure of the divisional success and I see them claiming a comfortable victory. This is a nice game for them, even though it is against a divisional rival. The Titans haven’t looked much recently and in all probability this will probably be Fisher’s last game as head coach. The simple fact is that they have no defence this year, terrible against the pass which is disastrous today against the likes of Manning, and not much better against the rush either. In offence they have never been much of a threat in the air and will rely on their running game as usual. There has been plenty of talk that the Titans will rotate players today and some younger players will be given a chance to start. Ok, there might be some hungry guys but I really see them struggling. Later on in the match if the have a decent lead then the Colts might rest a few key guys, but I think taking them -9 seems like a good option, they’ll have too much for the Titans today. Giants -3.5 @ 1.91 (5/10) Ahmad Bradshaw over 77.5 rushing yards @ 1.91 (3/10) The Giants have collapsed in the last couple of weeks it’s as simple as that, although it must be said against much better opposition than they face today. The Skins, well everyone knows of the problems they’ve had both on and off the field. They come into this one actually having been competitive in recent weeks, even claiming a surprise win at the Jags in round 15, but I think the Giants will be too strong here. Statistically they are one of the better teams all round this year, its just a question of getting back on track and clicking. Their destiny isn’t in their own hands and if Green Bay get into a big lead against Chicago then its possible a few heads might drop. On the other hand that could also work the other way of course I just don’t think the Skins have enough defence to keep the Giants at bay and Manning should be able to feast today. Equally, the likes of Bradshaw should be able to go well too on the rush. The Skins will score points as well, but overall I see the visitors having enough and -3.5 looks like a decent proposition to me. Bradshaw’s rushing yards over 77.5 are too tempting for me against a team like this, so even though there is a slight doubt about his ankle, I’m going to take this as well. Ray Rice over 88.5 rushing yards @ 1.91 (3/10) Being a Ravens fan I know the team very well and I just see Ray Rice going strongly today. Its well known that Harbaugh wanted to ‘rediscover’ the Ravens running game in time for the post season and in the last couple of weeks he’s done just that, especially against the Saints a couple of weeks ago. Both Rice and McGahee have looked good in the last two rounds and in this sort of match I expect the Ravens to go to the ground quite a bit. This will be a tough divisional match and I was strongly considering the Bengals +9, usually they go well against us and have won the last 3 meetings, also we have seen the visitors have a mini resurgence in the last couple of weeks. The Bengals will fight hard and I think the ravens are going to have to keep going right until the end here. I do think Ricey will cover this over 88.5, against a defence which has poor stats against the rush. Of course, the danger is that towards the end of the match, the game is won and Rice is given some rest time. But I do believe this wont be an easy encounter and might be decided by only a few points so I’m willing to predict things will still be at stake in the 4th quarter. I think he can go over 100 today, so I’ll take this 88.5. Good luck all!

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allthethings

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Re: NFL Week Seventeen Picks Atlanta Falcons - team total Under 27½ (-105 Carolina has a good defense and has played well in domes...Atlanta has cracked 30 points five times this year, Carolina has given up 30 five times. Atlanta needs to win, but points is irrelevant...I think they run and run today, take the lead and cruise...and I think it's safer than +14, which I was considering.

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TazaD

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Re: NFL Week Seventeen Picks Still plenty of games left, att... ...bc showed things can turn around pretty quickly. ;) Speaking of terrible...Jags :wall ...time to give up I think...and hope Indi smack Tenn and hold C-J to under 40ish yards... :unsure :hope (Some good wins at some nice odds for bc and fagdi up there. :ok)

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TazaD

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Re: NFL Week Seventeen Picks Disappointing result in Green Bay... ...but :notworthy Michael Turner. Finishes the season with a whole 7 more yards ahead of Chris Johnson on the season. Certainly got a bit of luck with MJD missing the last 2, but a 20/1 winner is fair compensation for him costing me my 50/1 shot. :beer

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meatman

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Re: NFL Week Seventeen Picks went 4-7 myself, had a poor night and all of my most confident ones that I posted on here lost. So sorry guys, Rice was less than 10 yards short of covering and the Giants won by 3 :@ Browns put up an horrific 1st half to cost me an under and the colts were just terrible. You win some you lose some! Well done to any in the winners this week, bring on the play offs!

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