US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM

[Xaviercito]

Hi everyone, My name is Xavier, and i’m new here in PL forum. This is my first post. First of all, please excuse my basic English with a lot of grammar errors. This isn’t my language. I hope you will understand what I want to say. I post this system because I find it very effective, and I would like to share it with you. For now it’s a paper system, so don’t bet the games I post. So what is this system? This is a system created for odd of about 1,91 like spread or over/under in us sports. I use it for us sports, like NBA or MLB. In NBA I use spread bets. For MLB I don’t know, the next season start in april, so I have time to find. 2 STEPS Step 1 : how to choose the game to bet (my own creation) Personally, I go to www.covers.com to find all my informations, but a lot of other websites have the same. So if you prefer another website, feel free to go to another website despite covers if you can find these informations. In this website, I go to the section where I can find all the games of the day with the different informations I want, like spread : http://scores.covers.com/basketball-scores-matchups.aspx How I choose a game : I choose the game of the day with the highest spread (for example +12/-12) If the spread is 10,5 and lower, I bet on the favorite ( -10,5 and lower) If the spread is 11 or higher, I bet on the underdog (+11 and higher). 2 other things to consider: If in that day, there is a total of games less than 5, I don’t bet (I bet from 5 games and +) And if in that day, 2 games or more have the same higher spread (for example 2 games with +12) I don’t bet either. You know now how I choose the game to bet, and on which team I bet. Step 2 : the betting system For that part, I don’t have created anything. I found this betting system on a website (Bookie Buster), and I found it very effective, conservative (IMO, but someone else can find it aggressive or very bad). I use a bankroll of 1000 units and my base bet is 10 units. But you can choose the bankroll of your choice, it’s up to you. So mark 5 times your base bet. For me 10 10 10 10 10 10 For each bet, your bet amount will be the first number + the last number, here 10+10 = 20 units. Place the bet at the average odd of 1,91 (sometimes it’ll be higher, sometimes lower, but in average with all the bookies, it’s 1,91) If the bet win, cross theses 2 numbers, you have now : 10 10 10 Do the same for the next bet, it will be 20 units again 10+10 If the bet won, cross the 2 numbers and you have only 10, this will be your next bet, if it won, on have won about 45 units. What to do if the bet lost? Mark the bet lost at the end of the numbers series, after the other numbers. For example, if your first bet wins, you have 10 10 10 And now you bet 20, and if this bet lost, you’ll have 10 10 10 20 So your next bet will be 10+20 = 30 units If this bet win, cross the number 10 and 20, so you will have 10 10 and your next (and maybe final bet) will be 20 (10+10) The advantage of this system is that you need 1 winning game to cross 2 numbers, and if you lost a game, you add only 1 number. So a ratio of 50% and lower is enough to clear a series. And with the manner I choose NBA games, I’m higher than 50% so I have a positive yield. The bad thing is (like every systems) with a very bad and long loosing streak, it’ll be more difficult to close the series, but more easily and safely than with a other system than a martingale. And even with a bad streak, you will be in profit, instead of flat bet. For example, with a series of 13 games to close it (so bad series) you will have a profit of 30 units, with flats bet you would have lost more than 20 units. It seems complicated like that, but it’s because I can’t explain it very clearly, but it’s easy. So excuse me again it I’m not very clear. Read again, and if you have question, don’t hesitate to ask me. Here you will find the paper test of the November and December months with NBA. I have a yield and profit % upper than 20% so I’m happy with that figure. With this excel file, hope you will understand easily. I will try to post my bet as soon as I can, but like this is a system, now everyone can find the game and how much to bet. I the goal of a system no ? So if I travel sooner, and can’t place my post, I will return 1 or 2 days ago and find which game would be chosen for the system. Hope I have been clear with that system, I repeat, don’t hesitate to ask me for more explanations. Have fun Xavier

[Xaviercito]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM For today, like there is 2 teams with the best spread of -9,5 there is no bet.

[Xaviercito]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM following the rules of my system, the next bets will be on december 25th & 26th with 5 and 7 games. Today (3 games) and tomorrow (no games) there is no bet.

[wilfs47]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM this system is a slight change of a well known roulette progression and it is very dangerous.as long as your results are that positive - no problem.now calculate it the other way round, suppose the winners you had were losers and only the losers you had were winners.this will happen sooner or later.you can do it here by papertrading and you will realize the danger. by the way - as long as your results are that good - why not bet your average stake of almost 30 flat on each game.same result but less dangerous.:)

[froment]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM I have never bet on USA sports, and also never spread bet, but if I decide once to start, I'll try this strategy, as returns and strike rate for such a simply selection system are quite attractive! That means, if they hopefully stay on this level after hundreds of bets - 62.2% S/R at odds of 1.91 are rarely seen, that's 18% ROI at level stakes! At first glance, staking system looked like some hidden loss chasing, but its increase rate is rather slow - each time after bet is lost, you increase stake for only 10 units (or whatever is initial stake, because it always remains at leftmost position), and not for some coefficient or entire lost amount, so with initial stake of 1% of the bank, it should sustain long losing runs when they occur. :welcome to PL, and good luck with your strategy, I hope it will continue this way! And no needs to excuse your language; I believe that English is not native language for half of us here, and yours is way too above basic - I haven't seen any serious errors in these posts, and they are quite easily understandable! And I don't think that someone with basic knowledge would even attempt to write such a long post with detailed explanations! :ok

[froment]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM

now calculate it the other way round' date=' suppose the winners you had were losers and only the losers you had were winners.this will happen sooner or later.you can do it here by papertrading and you will realize the danger.[/quote'] ...but if it was the opposite, he would conclude that strategy was useless, and thrown it away, wouldn't he, eh?! :unsure Looking at results from above table, there is no indication that system may suddenly turn into disastrous one, staking system, in my opinion at least, is not very aggressive, number of selections is also at reasonable level, so it's certainly worth further investigation - papertest as you propose is always the best idea, but above results are already some sort of test, and if he's confident enough, he might skip that phase, as long as he's comfortable with stakes. As for the danger... you want to say that there's any betting or trading strategy, in any sport, which doesn't involve danger, more or less? :tongue2

[wilfs47]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM froment,obviously i have to translate things for you that i thought were simple enough.when i write "less dangerous" this means there is danger only somewhat lower. okay,the system so far has produced a winning rate of over 62%.a real good professional is able to get a rate of 56% long term at odds of 1,91.by achieving this he still will hit pretty long losing streaks from the 44% he loses.this system will not only increase its stakes by ten as you think.after 5 losses the 5 tens are used up and then you have to increase by 20,30 and even much higher once you have a winner here and there but the losers are still dominating.why dont you just papertrade this the other way round as i proposed.i mean,dont you see you will hit longer losing runs over hundreds of bets?

[Sawyer]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM Well, I suggest to use Pinnacle or 5Dimes since they have -105 lines. (1,952) Labouchere/Cancellation system is good. Its not an agressive strategy like martingale. Good luck mate!

[winningbin]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM I agree with you, I think the system looks like roulette progression, in the short term, the system can bring a very high profit, but someday we can get a very very long loss string and all bankroll will become 0 ! :lol Unless, you have around $100,000 and your stake is just around $1, I believe you can keep winning in your life-time, I guess you cannot lose in around 100 years, but if you could live around 1000 or 10000 years, I did not guarantee :dude

this system is a slight change of a well known roulette progression and it is very dangerous.as long as your results are that positive - no problem.now calculate it the other way round, suppose the winners you had were losers and only the losers you had were winners.this will happen sooner or later.you can do it here by papertrading and you will realize the danger. by the way - as long as your results are that good - why not bet your average stake of almost 30 flat on each game.same result but less dangerous.:)

[froment]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM

froment,obviously i have to translate things for you that i thought were simple enough.when i write "less dangerous" this means there is danger only somewhat lower. okay,the system so far has produced a winning rate of over 62%.a real good professional is able to get a rate of 56% long term at odds of 1,91.by achieving this he still will hit pretty long losing streaks from the 44% he loses.this system will not only increase its stakes by ten as you think.after 5 losses the 5 tens are used up and then you have to increase by 20,30 and even much higher once you have a winner here and there but the losers are still dominating.why dont you just papertrade this the other way round as i proposed.i mean,dont you see you will hit longer losing runs over hundreds of bets?

Doh, I reffered to sentence "you will realize the danger", but nevermind, sorry if missunderstood. It seems this strategy identifies less than one bet daily, so let's say 300 matches a season; if he maintains strike rate at this level of 62%, expected longest losing run at that amount of matches is -log(300)/log(0.38) = 6 matches, and expected longest winning run is -log(300)/log(0.62) = 12 matches, so I still think that profit from winning streaks will prevail losses; and at that strike rate, even at 56% that you mention, you don't have "a winner here and there but the losers are still dominating", but you have a pretty balanced mixture of both! Though, statistics doesn't guarantee that streaks will really occur, losing ones may be longer and winning ones shorter than expected, so I tend now to agree with you about staking, maybe level stakes would be more suitable. But, I have to disagree again about proposal to analyze it "other way round" - your advice "suppose the winners you had were losers and only the losers you had were winners" completely escapes my mind, what's the point there? :unsure If those winners were losers, it would be obvious that strategy won't work; but they were not losers, they were indeed winners; maybe because of selection system, maybe because of pure luck, who knows, but they allowed promising strike rate, worth further research - it seems that crucial factor here is strike rate, and only way to find out if it will remain high enough is to follow the system; on the paper or with comfortable stakes, it's up to Xavier! :ok

[Donkson]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM

If in that day, there is a total of games less than 5, I don’t bet (I bet from 5 games and +) And if in that day, 2 games or more have the same higher spread (for example 2 games with +12) I don’t bet either.

What's the reason for this?

[Xaviercito]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM Hi :cheers thank you for you welcome and for all your comments and advices. To answer shortly, I said I haven't invented this betting system, only the manner to choose the games to bet. It seems to be like a roulette system, chasing losses, yes it is, but IMO it's less dangerous than pure roulette. Pure roulette, is only pure luck and only luck. With my game choice, I choose the better team on the day, playing the worst team of the day. In other words, on the game with the most level difference. The spread is higher, but the favorite is a huge favorite, and when the spread is higher than 10,5 the statistics are for the underdog, just watch the recent game between milwaukee and the lakers. Lakers were -12 and they lost the game at home by 19 points !!! Anyway, it's just one game, it's just the beginning of my paper test, I take the risk to test a chasing lost betting system, but which betting system isn't ? For me, it's easier to have a 50% strike rate with us sports than roulette betting on even bets. If you bet on spread only favorite or underdog, the statistics are almost 50% wins. With this system, when you lost you add just one number and when you win you cross 2 numbers, and if I start with a base bet of 1% of my entire bankroll, I think that i will clear all the series before being broke. And you don't need to have a 50% wins to have a positive yield. But I don't have all your experience, so I can be wrong, but like I said, it's a paper trade system that i test for this NBA season and next MLB season, so i will have more than 200 bets, after that I will see. And finally, to answer to the last post, I bet only when there is 5 games and more and when there isn't 2 games with the same higher spread because i want to bet on the better game, on the best team of the day. With only 4 games or less, I don't have enough choice so i'm not sure that there is a huge favorite. And like i bet only 1 game / day, if there are 2 identicals games i don't want to choose, and it's a break day for me too ;) Thanks again for your comments, I appreciate. :ok and merry christmas to all of you.

[winningbin]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM Yes, in fact, roulette is just luck based game. I hope you have good picks.:cheers Okay, let's see the results, of course all of us here always want a way to get winning in long term :dude

Hi :cheers thank you for you welcome and for all your comments and advices. To answer shortly, I said I haven't invented this betting system, only the manner to choose the games to bet. It seems to be like a roulette system, chasing losses, yes it is, but IMO it's less dangerous than pure roulette. Pure roulette, is only pure luck and only luck. With my game choice, I choose the better team on the day, playing the worst team of the day. In other words, on the game with the most level difference. The spread is higher, but the favorite is a huge favorite, and when the spread is higher than 10,5 the statistics are for the underdog, just watch the recent game between milwaukee and the lakers. Lakers were -12 and they lost the game at home by 19 points !!! Anyway, it's just one game, it's just the beginning of my paper test, I take the risk to test a chasing lost betting system, but which betting system isn't ? For me, it's easier to have a 50% strike rate with us sports than roulette betting on even bets. If you bet on spread only favorite or underdog, the statistics are almost 50% wins. With this system, when you lost you add just one number and when you lost your cross 2 numbers, and if I start with a base bet of 1% of my entire bankroll, I think that i will clear all the series before being broke. And you don't need to have a 50% wins to have a positive yield. But I don't have all your experience, so I can be wrong, but like I said, it's a paper trade system that i test for this NBA season and next MLB season, so i will have more than 200 bets, after that I will see. And finally, to answer to the last post, I bet only when there is 5 games and more and when there isn't 2 games with the same higher spread because i want to bet on the better game, on the best team of the day. With only 4 games or less, I don't have enough choice so i'm not sure that there is a huge favorite. And like i bet only 1 game / day, if there are 2 identicals games i don't want to choose, and it's a break day for me too ;) Thanks again for your comments, I appreciate. :ok and merry christmas to all of you.

[Xaviercito]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM Let's start the first official PL serie of this sytem : 25/12/10 : Betting system : 10 10 10 10 10 Bet amount : 20 units Game : Denver +6,5 @ OKLAHOMA -6,5 Bet on Oklahoma -6,5 Do you know how to insert a image ? i try with imageshack but it doesn't work very well. Thanks.

[betting-place]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM

Do you know how to insert a image ? i try with imageshack but it doesn't work very well. Thanks.

Try with ***********.com! U need to register and U ll have your account. Upload is easy, just follow the instructions. After U upload image U can choose type of link U need (for forums, direct kinks, etc)... Cheers

[Xaviercito]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM a win for this first game 106-114 I'm traveling to south america for the next 2 days maybe 3, so I won't post the bets, but like it's a system, you can guess what game would be selected, and I will do the point next tuesday. For today, normaly the game will be Washington@San Antonio (but if the spread of the last game -Philadelphie @ Denver- is higher, this game will be selected, or else we stay on Washington. I post right now because I'm leaving right now). WASHINGTON +11,5 @ San Antonio -11,5 Bet on Washington +11,5 @1,91 Bet amount : (10 10 10) = 20 units

[Pepen]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM

.... With this system, when you lost you add just one number and when you win you cross 2 numbers, and if I start with a base bet of 1% of my entire bankroll, I think that i will clear all the series before being broke. And you don't need to have a 50% wins to have a positive yield. ...

Sorry to interrupt and being a nitpick, but with odds of 1.91, wouldn't you be needing to have a strikerate of just about 53% to be in slight profits? And with the quote from your post, saying this system will give you a profitable yield, with a winrate of under 50%, defies everything I've been taught as a punter.. That being, nomather the staking plan, a losing system will still be a losing system in the long run. Lets just say you have a strikerate of 50%, then you'll be losing in the long run with level staking, but with this system you'd be in profit? Can ya please prove it to a grumpy, doubting danish guy? Other than that, I'm following with keen interest and I think the reason your system has been doing so good, is your selection of the games, so kudos for those :)

[Xaviercito]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM Hi, now I have internet connexion, here are the picks of the last 2 days. The game of yesterday was lost 80-94, even with +12 is lost. So after 2 days I´m with W-L and -1.80 units with betting system update : 10-10-10-20 Monday 27/12/2010 Game : Washington +9.5 @ HOUSTON -9.5 Bet on HOUSTON -9.5 Betting system : 10-10-10-20 so bet of 30 units Result : 93-100 = LOST Serie : -31.80 units with W-L-L Tuesday 28/12/2010 Game : Toronto +10.5 @ DALLAS -10.5 Bet on DALLAS -10.5 Betting system : 10-10-10-20-30 so bet of 40 units.

[Xaviercito]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM 84-76 for Toronto yesterday, 3rd lost in a row, but it´s good to see how works the system in case of bad rush. Current Serie : WLLL and -71.8 units Today Wed 29/12/2010 : Game : New Jersey +9 @ OKLAHOMA -9 Bet on OKLAHOMA -9 Bet : 10-10-10-20-30-40 = 50 units

[equinoxx]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM This won't work simply because Covers.com is full of square bettors so you're often always going to see the favourites favoured over the underdogs. You're discounting dogs covering using this as a resource and that is going to bite you in the long run.

[PERFECT]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM Hi Xaviercito, at what time you look at the spread to pick the right one? I ask this because some results could be different, like the game Washington vs. San Antonio where the spread was +14.5 at 1:00 am, so resulting a winning bet. Thanks for sharing it, good luck.

[froment]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM Well, looks like Oklahoma easily covered handycap, 114-93, which means that more than half of your loss has been recovered now! Next stake steps back to 40 units, and another win will see you at profit! :ok

[Xaviercito]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM you´re right easy winning yesterday, I´m now with betting system : 10-10-20-30 so next bet will be 40 units. But not today because there is only 3 games tonight. I choose the spread at the hour of I do my picks, if it change I do like real bookmaker I can´t change it, so I stay with it.

[Xaviercito]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM

This won't work simply because Covers.com is full of square bettors so you're often always going to see the favourites favoured over the underdogs. You're discounting dogs covering using this as a resource and that is going to bite you in the long run.

I have choosen covers.com but it´s not only this website, it´s the spread in general for a game that you can find almost the same in all websites and vegas lines. I can change it´s not a problem for me, I can work with vegasinsider too.

[Xaviercito]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM yesterday game was : New Jersey +10.5 @ CHICAGO -10.5 Bet on CHICAGO -10.5 Betting : system : 10-10-20-30 = bet 40 units Result : 81-90 = LOST (-66,30 units for the serie) ----- Today 1/1/11 Game : Cleveland +13 @ Chicago -13 Bet on CLEVELAND +13 Betting : system = 10-10-20-30-40 = 50 units

[Xaviercito]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM 91-100 for Chicago yesterday, with the spread +13 with Cleveland = WIN (-20.3 units) ---------- Sunday 2/1/2011 Game : Memphis +9 @ LOS ANGELES LAKERS -9 Bet on LAKERS -9 Betting : System = 10-20-30 = Bet 40 units

[Valiant23]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM Xaviercito, First of all I'm interested in US Sports and systems related to it, so anything that I ask you is because I'm interested, and hopefully something useful can come out of it. I think the way that games are chosen are a little random, but I also think that if it has a good strike rate then that (to me) doesn't matter. What does concern me is the staking plan, because in my opinion, any system is only a succesful one if it can be proved profitable using level stakes. Anything after that is just a way of maximising a profitable system. Your staking plan does seem to chase losses and that worries me a lot. As has already been said, the break-even strike rate for betting at odds of around 1.9 is approximately 53%. and it does worry me that you are suggesting that a system that has a strike rate of less than 53% should be bet on with increased stakes. eg;

• Bet wins (increased strike rate) reult is to bet small next time.
• Bet loses (decreased strike rate) result is to increase stake.

That (to me) seems to be opposite of what sensible betting is all about. If I could make a suggestion which is, as well as trailing your system with your staking plan, keep a record of what profit (or loss) you would have if each selection was bet with level 10pt stakes.

[Valiant23]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM Just to add, the data you are using at Covers come from here (I think); http://www.statfox.com/nba/gamematchup.asp Always worth knowing in case covers goes down. ;)

[Xaviercito]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM Thank you valiant for your comments, I will see after the end of the first serie what it would be with flat bets of 10 units. but with good results, flat bets are less dangerous I'm agree, for me this system is made to win money even with a serie of loss games (i'm not talking of a huge serie of losses game, with such a bad serie you can't be profitable even with a system) Anyway, yesterday the lakers game was LOST 104-85 !! Today game : Golden State +10 @ ORLANDO -10 Bet on ORLANDO -10 Betting System : 10-20-30-40 = Bet 50 units

[Xaviercito]

Re: US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM yesterday Orlando wins 110-90, so WIN for yesterday bet. I'm 4W 5L now with -15,30 units now. For today january 4th 2011 Game : DETROIT +12.5 @ Los Angeles Lakers -12.5 Bet on DETROIT +12.5 Betting : System : 20-30 = Bet 50 units Maybe the last game to close this serie.